List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[HARKER]

I can easily make a case for 12

Start the ball rolling with some retirements

Simmo, Daisy, Levi

Others injury prone/shown very little

Phillips, Pickett, Garlett, Lang, Lebois

Players under pressure

Cuners, Fasolo, Jones, Plowman

You could name a couple of others to this category

Remember we also have at least another 3 rookies to join the ranks.

No guarantee at all that all three will be given another year, after 2019. It all clocks up pretty quick.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Shache's tank was reasonable for a tall, but wasn't elite. I think there is better footy to come with Schache. Aggression, well he may not be a Carey, or even a Blakey who I rate highly also, but he certainly doesn't shirk a contest and will put his body on the line when needed

You have to remember he has been playing against men, this year, rather than junior footy, like many talls before him.



This is the top 10 for the YoYo, all midfield types

Ned McHenry - level 22.2
Sam Walsh - 22.1
Luke English - 22.1
Will Golds - 21.8
Xavier O'Halloran - 21.6
Oscar Brownless - 21.6
Will Hamill - 21.4
Ely Smith - 21.4
Jez McLennan - 21.4
Lachlan Sholl - 21.4
Fraser Turner - 21.4

Lukosius 21.2. For a tall, that is elite



"Jack Lukosius' brilliant foot skills were on show on the opening night of testing, when he scored 23 out of 30 in the kicking test and kicked 4.1 in the goalkicking test. He also highlighted his athleticism, running 2.98 seconds for the sprint and reaching level 21.2 in the YoYo."

Elite tank, and sub 3 seconds for 20 metre sprint. He is quicker than most talls and has a better tank than most of them. He will find plenty of space



In terms of tank, playing style, very similar and with a vastly superior kick

Love Ely Smith’s result. Will be a player.

 

[Blue and Blue]

I just can't count out eight players on our list that should be delisted at the end of next season.

Now yes...but by the end of next season..as they up the ante ..maybe...maybe still not

 

[Blue and Blue]

If there is to be a "dud" in the top 8, history numerology says it'll be pick 6. Pick 6s tend to average about half the games as the other top 8 picks.

View attachment 585431
https://www.draftguru.com.au

Just a strange anomaly of the draft. This where Allen Jackovich, Murray Vance, Damien Cupido, Ashley Sampi, Mitch Thorpe, and Beau Dowler have been selected.

Almost singlehandedly weve given pick 1 daylight

 

[thylacine60]

Sam Walsh has every chance to be our best player in the years to come (if we draft him).

Some folks are talking themselves into believe he is a scrub.

He will be elite at the AFL level.

where did you read this?

 

[blueballs99]

I was JL all year if we kept pick 1, than started thinking safe and go Walsh and and now thinking Rankine.
Rankine for me is almost as safe as Walsh in terms of list build because I think we can find gun mids in future trades/FA and our top 2-6 pick next year but I don't think we can find another Rankine

Rankine would have been the one for sos if we had landed Dylan shiel ..

 

[Blue and Blue]

I can easily make a case for 12

Start the ball rolling with some retirements

Simmo, Daisy, Levi

Others injury prone/shown very little

Phillips, Pickett, Garlett, Lang, Lebois

Players under pressure

Cuners, Fasolo, Jones, Plowman

You could name a couple of others to this category

Bit harsh there mate.
Plowman is a ripper
Fasolo hasnt even played for us yet
Jones has done nothing wrong except having to do it all alone
Pickett broke his wrist and those injuries take ages to come good fully

 

[thylacine60]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...e/news-story/bc88331a8f0eb816ef406bf1636074f4

**** me - how level-headed does he sound?

 

[ferrisb]

**** me - how level-headed does he sound?

Even more than this guy

 

[thylacine60]

better bounce the ball, ump....

 

[Macca43]

**** me - how level-headed does he sound?

Massive difference to his uncles, they were a couple of wild lads.

 

[Quazza]

mate of mine who owns a clothing store here in the city had a good chat to Rankine recently when was in his shop;

-Actually wants to leave Adelaide to start his career but would definitely look to come back further down the track.
-Mad crows fan. "Don't know what I'll do if I end up at Port" Works very closely with Eddie.
-Has met with Bolts, SOS etc. "Would love to play for Carlton, especially with Cripps." (this could be just chit chat though as my mate is a Carlton man too) Doesn't think it will happen though.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

OK, playing list manager for the day:

3 & 6 for 1
Why Suns: They get Walsh. They don't select the flight-risk kids. They don't overpay for some less-talented kid just for safety.
Why Blues: 2 bites of cherry instead of 1.
Ruling: No way, Suns get rolled. Giving up pick 6 to move up 2 spots? Suns giving up too much. 2 & 6 for 1 even more absurd (NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN). Edit: we lack appropriate sweeteners to even up this deal.

3 & 6 for 1 and 2019 first
Suns: Get Walsh, much better compensation for their picks.
Blues: 2019 1st is best guess pick 3. So that's 3 for 3 (cancels out) and 6 for 1 (unfair)
Ruling: No way, Blues getting robbed

2 & 3 for 1 and 2019 first
Suns: Give up a lot, but get a lot including access to Walsh, avoid somewhat unique go-home risk this year and have more draft capital when hopefully they are less of a basket case next year.
Blues: 3 for 3 and 2 for 1. Getting close. Probably worth it if we rate this year's elite talent as super elite. Potentially recruit 2 x SA kids together? Club would like to back itself to rise next year, but that's a BIG risk.
Ruling: Virtually even, but I think we can negotiate a sweetener. This is based on assumption Suns are more motivated to avoid disaster this year than we are to accumulate more talent.

So how do we even things out?

GC's picks next year don't work. GC 1st (pick 1-4) and Bris 1st (4-10) too valuable. GC's next pick is ~50 not valuable enough.
GC's 2018 picks are in the right range; 19, 24, 29..... 29 too little. 19 too much? 24 about right.

ferrisb's final fair(ish) offers^

1 for 3 and 19
1 for 2 and 24
1 and 2019 1st for 2, 3 and 19. This is unnecessary compared to previous ones, but would be something we might introduce if we really wanted to grab two guys this year.

^ Note: I am trying to work out deals that might happen, not deals that have us ream the Suns. I think these favour us mildly, but this is based on the premise that the Suns are trying to pry pick 1 from us, not we are trying to offload it (seller's market). Also if these trades happen, they happen on draft night so the AFL gets their action.

** If I wanted a more Carlton-sided deal, I'd suggest something like 2, 3 and Bris 2019 1st (~7) for pick 1 and 2019 1st. But can't see this happening. I would put up a 4th SOS statue in my back garden if this happened.

I read these discussions about using pick 3 and 6 on this player or that player and I still find it remarkable that anyone still thinks it's likely that GCS will part with a top 6 pick to move up the draft 1-2 picks with their first selection.

Let's remember the media who started this rumour has a vested interest in keeping everyone talking about the draft whilst GCS and Carlton have both said they will almost certainly be taking their current picks to the draft. Both teams then qualify this by saying the only thing that would change their minds is some yet to be received 'mother of all offers' from some unknown source, so what are the chances that GCS will do a compete 180 and decide that they will make a 'mother of all offers' to Carlton. Let's face it, the chances aren't great.

A more interesting and realistic conversation would be who Carlton should take with their pick 1. Unfortunately, everyone seems to believe it will be Walsh, even though there are at least two other prime candidates that I would argue are as good or better prospects.

Walsh is both inside and outside which is a great trait. He has Pendlebury levels of spatial awareness. He is his own man though, he is not a pure clone of anyone. So he is neither Selwood, Mitchell, Kelly or Pendlebury, but he has parts of each in his game.

Again, I would trade pick 1 for picks 3 & 6. If Gold Coast offered it, I would take it and so would SOS.

But, I don't think that is a realistic trade unless Gold Coast absolutely wants Sam Walsh and is willing to sell the farm.

I am now projecting Sam Walsh as a 400 game player He has the Craig Bradley endurance gene and body shape.

If GC offered 3 & 6, would they be expecting something back in return?

If so, are we talking a significant pick such as a future first rounder?

Poppycock gentlemen, absolute poppycock. At the time of trade, the Swans received Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points) for Pick 13 (1212 points). 13!!! 13!!! as Anthony Hudson would cry. The simple fact is that SOS considered McGovern's worth to more than what he could acquire with Picks 26 & 28 (1406 points) in this years draft and a Future 5th Rounder in next years draft. Justin Reid values the prospect he thinks he can acquire with Pick 13 better than what he'll achieve with Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points). That's a 623 point differential gentlemen and we're not even talking Top 5 Picks here. We're talking about a 623 point differential for a 1st Round Pick outside the Top 10*. Some things to think about:

• Do you honestly think the Swans feel guilty about extracting a 50% (623) point premium for Pick 13 or do you think they were happy to make off like bandits into the night???
• Do you think Reid was pissed he had to part with 1835 points to get Pick 13 or do you think he left happy walking away with a mid 1st Round Pick in a Super Draft, which is what he initially set out to do???*
• Do you think SOS was pissed about having to use both his early 2nd Round Picks in a very deep Super Draft, or did he leave happy having kept Pick 1 intact and acquiring McGovern, which is what he set out to achieve???* *(Future 3rd Rounder used by AFC in this trade effectively paid for McAdam)

Lends a whole different perspective doesn't it.

Port gave up Picks 6 & 35 in this years draft & Freo's Future 3rd (approximately 2650 points) for Pick 5 (1878 points) and Sam Mayes. Wouldn't have thought Mayes was worth any more than a mid/late 3rd Rounder, if that, and is no lock to make Ports best 22. In effect Port gave up around an 500-600 point premium just to nudge up the pecking order from Pick 6 to Pick 5. Food for thought:

• Do you think Port were pissed having to give up an 500-600 point premium to climb one rung up the Draft Ladder or they walked away happy having put themselves in a position to potentially snaffle all of Rankine, Rozee & Hately while adding a little depth to their list which is what they set out to do???

If I'm an established AFL club in a traditional market such SA, WA & Vic then I wouldn't hesitate and simply take Picks 2, 3, 6, 24 & 29 to the draft, but the Suns are an expansion club in an emerging market with some unique problems.

• Absolutely butchered their first attempt at a list build, and with it, the opportunity to build a club with a culture that stood for something. They simply cannot afford to bugger it up a second time. Lukosius & Walsh would provide the best possible start.
• After losing both Lynch & May, the Suns are desperate for a couple of Franchise Players. They need to be more than just very good footballers, they need to be media friendly, mature, intelligent and marketable. They need a couple of young professionals with integrity to build their brand around. For the Suns, this aspect could well be worth the 900 point premium to get Walsh on its own.
• I don't subscribe to the notion of bringing in a bunch of SA kids together. Of all the kids in the top 10, I think Rankine and Rozee are potentially the biggest flight risks, especially if they end up in the northern states. I'd much prefer to have the calm and rational voice of Walsh providing support to Lukosius rather than the other 2 blathering away how they want to go home all the time when it begins to get a little bit too hard after the first 12 months. Just my take.

So if you think a 900 point differential will stop GCS from using Picks 3 & 6 to trade up to Pick 1 then think again. The lesson to be learned is this;

• It's not about overs,
• It's not about unders,
• It's not about evens,
• It's not about points,
• It's not even about picks.
• It's about the prospects/players you think you can, or can't, acquire with those picks and how they'll fit into your system to achieve the club's goals.

.....and just to add a little fuel to the fire here's a quote I'll leave you with from our very own TheRedPill.

Walsh is THAT good, and many clubs would give an arm and a leg for the chance to draft him. And admittedly, one of them just might.

 

[thylacine60]

Massive difference to his uncles, they were a couple of wild lads.

I have to stop reading about him - I get swayed by crazy talk of swapping 1 for whatever and then get wrenched back to reality by the awesome potential of his potential awesomeness.......

 

[Doro]

Poppycock gentlemen, absolute poppycock. At the time of trade, the Swans received Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points) for Pick 13 (1212 points). 13!!! 13!!! as Anthony Hudson would cry. The simple fact is that SOS considered McGovern's worth to more than what he could acquire with Picks 26 & 28 (1406 points) in this years draft and a Future 5th Rounder in next years draft. Justin Reid values the prospect he thinks he can acquire with Pick 13 better than what he'll achieve with Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points). That's a 623 point differential gentlemen and we're not even talking Top 5 Picks here. We're talking about a 623 point differential for a 1st Round Pick outside the Top 10*. Some things to think about:

• Do you honestly think the Swans feel guilty about extracting a 50% (623) point premium for Pick 13 or do you think they were happy to make off like bandits into the night???
• Do you think Reid was pissed he had to part with 1835 points to get Pick 13 or do you think he left happy walking away with a mid 1st Round Pick in a Super Draft, which is what he initially set out to do???*
• Do you think SOS was pissed about having to use both his early 2nd Round Picks in a very deep Super Draft, or did he leave happy having kept Pick 1 intact and acquiring McGovern, which is what he set out to achieve???* *(Future 3rd Rounder used by AFC in this trade effectively paid for McAdam)

Lends a whole different perspective doesn't it.

Port gave up Picks 6 & 35 in this years draft & Freo's Future 3rd (approximately 2650 points) for Pick 5 (1878 points) and Sam Mayes. Wouldn't have thought Mayes was worth any more than a mid/late 3rd Rounder, if that, and is no lock to make Ports best 22. In effect Port gave up around an 500-600 point premium just to nudge up the pecking order from Pick 6 to Pick 5. Food for thought:

• Do you think Port were pissed having to give up an 500-600 point premium to climb one rung up the Draft Ladder or they walked away happy having put themselves in a position to potentially snaffle all of Rankine, Rozee & Hately while adding a little depth to their list which is what they set out to do???

If I'm an established AFL club in a traditional market such SA, WA & Vic then I wouldn't hesitate and simply take Picks 2, 3, 6, 24 & 29 to the draft, but the Suns are an expansion club in an emerging market with some unique problems.

• Absolutely butchered their first attempt at a list build, and with it, the opportunity to build a club with a culture that stood for something. They simply cannot afford to bugger it up a second time. Lukosius & Walsh would provide the best possible start.
• After losing both Lynch & May, the Suns are desperate for a couple of Franchise Players. They need to be more than just very good footballers, they need to be media friendly, mature, intelligent and marketable. They need a couple of young professionals with integrity to build their brand around. For the Suns, this aspect could well be worth the 900 point premium to get Walsh on its own.
• I don't subscribe to the notion of bringing in a bunch of SA kids together. Of all the kids in the top 10, I think Rankine and Rozee are potentially the biggest flight risks, especially if they end up in the northern states. I'd much prefer to have the calm and rational voice of Walsh providing support to Lukosius rather than the other 2 blathering away how they want to go home all the time when it begins to get a little bit too hard after the first 12 months. Just my take.

So if you think a 900 point differential will stop GCS from using Picks 3 & 6 to trade up to Pick 1 then think again. The lesson to be learned is this;

• It's not about overs,
• It's not about unders,
• It's not about evens,
• It's not about points,
• It's not even about picks.
• It's about the prospects/players you think you can, or can't, acquire with those picks and how they'll fit into your system to achieve the club's goals.

.....and just to add a little fuel to the fire here's a quote I'll leave you with from our very own TheRedPill.

Love your work TSG. I’m thinking Craig Cameron is more than capable of sitting on a good poker hand without the last minute fold, but we’ll see. I’ve come around to the Walsh wagon.

 

[thylacine60]

same doro.......I just wanna watch him tear it up for a decade - my little mate more likely to watch the game from on top of his seat...

 

[Nori]

Poppycock gentlemen, absolute poppycock. At the time of trade, the Swans received Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points) for Pick 13 (1212 points). 13!!! 13!!! as Anthony Hudson would cry. The simple fact is that SOS considered McGovern's worth to more than what he could acquire with Picks 26 & 28 (1406 points) in this years draft and a Future 5th Rounder in next years draft. Justin Reid values the prospect he thinks he can acquire with Pick 13 better than what he'll achieve with Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points). That's a 623 point differential gentlemen and we're not even talking Top 5 Picks here. We're talking about a 623 point differential for a 1st Round Pick outside the Top 10*. Some things to think about:

• Do you honestly think the Swans feel guilty about extracting a 50% (623) point premium for Pick 13 or do you think they were happy to make off like bandits into the night???
• Do you think Reid was pissed he had to part with 1835 points to get Pick 13 or do you think he left happy walking away with a mid 1st Round Pick in a Super Draft, which is what he initially set out to do???*
• Do you think SOS was pissed about having to use both his early 2nd Round Picks in a very deep Super Draft, or did he leave happy having kept Pick 1 intact and acquiring McGovern, which is what he set out to achieve???* *(Future 3rd Rounder used by AFC in this trade effectively paid for McAdam)

Lends a whole different perspective doesn't it.

Port gave up Picks 6 & 35 in this years draft & Freo's Future 3rd (approximately 2650 points) for Pick 5 (1878 points) and Sam Mayes. Wouldn't have thought Mayes was worth any more than a mid/late 3rd Rounder, if that, and is no lock to make Ports best 22. In effect Port gave up around an 500-600 point premium just to nudge up the pecking order from Pick 6 to Pick 5. Food for thought:

• Do you think Port were pissed having to give up an 500-600 point premium to climb one rung up the Draft Ladder or they walked away happy having put themselves in a position to potentially snaffle all of Rankine, Rozee & Hately while adding a little depth to their list which is what they set out to do???

If I'm an established AFL club in a traditional market such SA, WA & Vic then I wouldn't hesitate and simply take Picks 2, 3, 6, 24 & 29 to the draft, but the Suns are an expansion club in an emerging market with some unique problems.

• Absolutely butchered their first attempt at a list build, and with it, the opportunity to build a club with a culture that stood for something. They simply cannot afford to bugger it up a second time. Lukosius & Walsh would provide the best possible start.
• After losing both Lynch & May, the Suns are desperate for a couple of Franchise Players. They need to be more than just very good footballers, they need to be media friendly, mature, intelligent and marketable. They need a couple of young professionals with integrity to build their brand around. For the Suns, this aspect could well be worth the 900 point premium to get Walsh on its own.
• I don't subscribe to the notion of bringing in a bunch of SA kids together. Of all the kids in the top 10, I think Rankine and Rozee are potentially the biggest flight risks, especially if they end up in the northern states. I'd much prefer to have the calm and rational voice of Walsh providing support to Lukosius rather than the other 2 blathering away how they want to go home all the time when it begins to get a little bit too hard after the first 12 months. Just my take.

So if you think a 900 point differential will stop GCS from using Picks 3 & 6 to trade up to Pick 1 then think again. The lesson to be learned is this;

• It's not about overs,
• It's not about unders,
• It's not about evens,
• It's not about points,
• It's not even about picks.
• It's about the prospects/players you think you can, or can't, acquire with those picks and how they'll fit into your system to achieve the club's goals.

.....and just to add a little fuel to the fire here's a quote I'll leave you with from our very own TheRedPill.

The difference is pick 3 and 6 will both get elite players. GWS would be giving up one elite player to get Walsh. I still don’t think that will happen.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

Love your work TSG. I’m thinking Craig Cameron is more than capable of sitting on a good poker hand without the last minute fold, but we’ll see. I’ve come around to the Walsh wagon.

Ha!!! I'm actually not that fussed who we take, even if that's Walsh, but given the quality of this years Top 10, two is definitely better than one. I think we've been pretty conservative with the types we've drafted over the last 3 years. Charlie might be the exception. Admittedly, we've had to have been, and now GCS find themselves in the same boat.

I'm a little more comfortable with SOS taking a risk on an out-and-out match winner like Rankine this time around and picking up another gun mid, such as Smith, Rozee or Jones. Some outright speed, X-factor and, most of all, a little imagination would go a long way IMO. Fisher, Dow, O'Brien, Rankine and one of Rozee, Smith or Jones barrelling out of the centre on the end of Cripps, Setterfield's & Kennedy's work would scare the bejesus out of a lot sides in a couple of years. Would add some nice balance.

 

[Arr0w]

Bit harsh there mate.
Plowman is a ripper
Fasolo hasnt even played for us yet
Jones has done nothing wrong except having to do it all alone
Pickett broke his wrist and those injuries take ages to come good fully

Not bagging the players, but think of the competition

Plowman might come under pressure, with Marchbank, Weitering, Jones and McGovern possibly being used as a defender at times

Pickett wasn't setting the world prior to the wrist injury

Fasolo played 1 game last year and Jones struggled compared to the latter part of 2017

 

[The Smoking Gun]

The difference is pick 3 and 6 will both get elite players. GWS would be giving up one elite player to get Walsh. I still don’t think that will happen.

We're probably going to have to wait until Draft Night Nori. Given this is the 1st year of live Pick Trading on Draft Night the AFL would be begging the Blues & Suns to keep any such announcement under wraps until then.

That quote from our ITK Red Pill is potentially telling though......and a little hard to simply gloss over.

 

[thylacine60]

Yep, Nick Riewoldt was one of my favourite ever players to watch. An absolute gun with an incredible work rate.

had zero time for him but acknowledge he probably had the the most extraordinary tank in the history of the game

 

[Stig O'Hara]

had zero time for him but acknowledge he probably had the the most extraordinary tank in the history of the game

Craig Bradley.

 

[Doro]

had zero time for him but acknowledge he probably had the the most extraordinary tank in the history of the game

Hard to stop those arms getting the pill at the highest point as well.

 

[thylacine60]

Craig Bradley.

there's another - good get.......

 

[Stig O'Hara]

there's another - good get.......

Can remember a game against North at Etihad later in his career where they were tagging him off the bench, and he just kept running, goal kicked, ran the centre square, ball in play, ran end to end, and one by one he literally burnt them off.