NavyRedGold
Debutant
- Oct 4, 2017
- 103
- 235
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Philadelphia Flyers
This thread is about how to execute a rebuild in the modern AFL.
Preamble
Clearly this core isn't winning a premiership. This season we may miss the 8 and next season, if we keep a mix of current core and some new guys, we'll likely miss the 8 as guys like Jones, Fog and McHenry will take some time to get set. Even if we make the 8, are we competing against a mix of clubs with elite current lists and clubs with potentially elite young lists? Probably not.
The draft pick penalties and departures of two of our 2014 draft picks has meant we have no mid-20s supplemental core who the veterans could support going forward. This, along with the mishandling of 2018, is fundamentally why our premiership window was too short. You'd ordinarily be able to back up the core with a couple of seasons of young guns coming through. We had a wave and now we're done.
So how do we get back up and actually win one in the near future?
In my view: AFL is not a league like the NFL, NBA or NHL where your #1 pick might instantly become a game changer (in the NFL if it's a QB, in the NBA you might pick up LeBron James, in the NHL a Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin). This is a sport where there are 18 guys out there at once and plenty of guys end the game having only touched the ball 15 times. Ultimately you have clubs like Melbourne and Carlton (despite recent form) which struggle at the bottom of the ladder for years despite tanking and repeat top end draft picks, while other clubs can reload effectively in the middle of the draft. It's therefore about first round quantity vs. quality, to increase your chance of success. This is why I'm not going to get sad about missing out on Rowell/Anderson, or even Luko. There's every chance you pick up Connor Rozee a few picks later.
Anyway, I think this means we ask ourselves the following questions:
Question 1: When's the earliest next possible premiership window?
Think this is a matter of determining when you'll next have a premiership-winning core in that 25-27 year old range.
You might think it's 2022. In 3 years, the ~25-27 year old group will be
Question 2: Of players who will be 30 or older in 2024, who has value now?
Laird, Brad Crouch, Hugh Greenwood, CEY, Seedsman, Keath, Brodie Smith, Hartigan, Talia, Lynch, Sloane
I think they've all got plenty to offer in the next 2-3 seasons, but they'll be fading away by 2022, and mostly done by 2024. Think this group all need to be aggressively on the radar to trade off to a club who thinks they have short-term value for a premiership tilt but are missing a piece. The strategy is effectively to do a Bryce Gibbs trade but be on the winning end.
Question 3: Trade them for picks if the opportunity comes up
You obviously can't gut the core entirely otherwise players won't want to be here (although not like they stay regardless). That said, if anyone in that group shows a hint of wanting to leave, they should be shown the door. Accumulate 2-3 draft picks in the 1-20 range over the course of the next 3 drafts.
Then by 2024 you have (in addition to the group above), potentially 6 high-end young guys and hopefully some decent pickups from other avenues along the way.
Addendum: anyone who will be well into retirement by 2024 doesn't get a game after this season
I say after this season because to be honest with only a few rounds left and given we're not owning our own draft picks, I don't mind just letting the old core have a few more runs around the park.
But add 5 years to Betts, Douglas, MacKay, Jenkins, Gibbs, Otten...think there are some "you might not ever get back out of the SANFL" discussions that need to be had. We need to know what we have with the 2024 core because if they can't hack it, we might need to take a hard look.
Obviously this is all hypothetical because the club is likely going to do nothing and make moves that will allow us to remain a middle-of-the-ladder side. But what are our other options?
tldr: think we can avoid another 10 years of mediocrity by aggressively trading out our current 'stars' and rebuilding around the likes of Doedee and Milera in 2024
Preamble
Clearly this core isn't winning a premiership. This season we may miss the 8 and next season, if we keep a mix of current core and some new guys, we'll likely miss the 8 as guys like Jones, Fog and McHenry will take some time to get set. Even if we make the 8, are we competing against a mix of clubs with elite current lists and clubs with potentially elite young lists? Probably not.
The draft pick penalties and departures of two of our 2014 draft picks has meant we have no mid-20s supplemental core who the veterans could support going forward. This, along with the mishandling of 2018, is fundamentally why our premiership window was too short. You'd ordinarily be able to back up the core with a couple of seasons of young guns coming through. We had a wave and now we're done.
So how do we get back up and actually win one in the near future?
In my view: AFL is not a league like the NFL, NBA or NHL where your #1 pick might instantly become a game changer (in the NFL if it's a QB, in the NBA you might pick up LeBron James, in the NHL a Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin). This is a sport where there are 18 guys out there at once and plenty of guys end the game having only touched the ball 15 times. Ultimately you have clubs like Melbourne and Carlton (despite recent form) which struggle at the bottom of the ladder for years despite tanking and repeat top end draft picks, while other clubs can reload effectively in the middle of the draft. It's therefore about first round quantity vs. quality, to increase your chance of success. This is why I'm not going to get sad about missing out on Rowell/Anderson, or even Luko. There's every chance you pick up Connor Rozee a few picks later.
Anyway, I think this means we ask ourselves the following questions:
Question 1: When's the earliest next possible premiership window?
Think this is a matter of determining when you'll next have a premiership-winning core in that 25-27 year old range.
You might think it's 2022. In 3 years, the ~25-27 year old group will be
- Matt Crouch
- Jake Kelly
- Riley Knight
- ROB
- Doedee
- Doedee
- Milera
- Gallucci
- Elliot Himmelberg
- Murphy
- Stengle
- With some 24 year olds in Fogarty, Jones, McHenry backing them up
Question 2: Of players who will be 30 or older in 2024, who has value now?
Laird, Brad Crouch, Hugh Greenwood, CEY, Seedsman, Keath, Brodie Smith, Hartigan, Talia, Lynch, Sloane
I think they've all got plenty to offer in the next 2-3 seasons, but they'll be fading away by 2022, and mostly done by 2024. Think this group all need to be aggressively on the radar to trade off to a club who thinks they have short-term value for a premiership tilt but are missing a piece. The strategy is effectively to do a Bryce Gibbs trade but be on the winning end.
Question 3: Trade them for picks if the opportunity comes up
You obviously can't gut the core entirely otherwise players won't want to be here (although not like they stay regardless). That said, if anyone in that group shows a hint of wanting to leave, they should be shown the door. Accumulate 2-3 draft picks in the 1-20 range over the course of the next 3 drafts.
Then by 2024 you have (in addition to the group above), potentially 6 high-end young guys and hopefully some decent pickups from other avenues along the way.
Addendum: anyone who will be well into retirement by 2024 doesn't get a game after this season
I say after this season because to be honest with only a few rounds left and given we're not owning our own draft picks, I don't mind just letting the old core have a few more runs around the park.
But add 5 years to Betts, Douglas, MacKay, Jenkins, Gibbs, Otten...think there are some "you might not ever get back out of the SANFL" discussions that need to be had. We need to know what we have with the 2024 core because if they can't hack it, we might need to take a hard look.
Obviously this is all hypothetical because the club is likely going to do nothing and make moves that will allow us to remain a middle-of-the-ladder side. But what are our other options?
tldr: think we can avoid another 10 years of mediocrity by aggressively trading out our current 'stars' and rebuilding around the likes of Doedee and Milera in 2024