Analysis Blow it up - when's the next premiership window and how do we get there?

[NavyRedGold]

This thread is about how to execute a rebuild in the modern AFL.

Preamble
Clearly this core isn't winning a premiership. This season we may miss the 8 and next season, if we keep a mix of current core and some new guys, we'll likely miss the 8 as guys like Jones, Fog and McHenry will take some time to get set. Even if we make the 8, are we competing against a mix of clubs with elite current lists and clubs with potentially elite young lists? Probably not.

The draft pick penalties and departures of two of our 2014 draft picks has meant we have no mid-20s supplemental core who the veterans could support going forward. This, along with the mishandling of 2018, is fundamentally why our premiership window was too short. You'd ordinarily be able to back up the core with a couple of seasons of young guns coming through. We had a wave and now we're done.

So how do we get back up and actually win one in the near future?

In my view: AFL is not a league like the NFL, NBA or NHL where your #1 pick might instantly become a game changer (in the NFL if it's a QB, in the NBA you might pick up LeBron James, in the NHL a Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin). This is a sport where there are 18 guys out there at once and plenty of guys end the game having only touched the ball 15 times. Ultimately you have clubs like Melbourne and Carlton (despite recent form) which struggle at the bottom of the ladder for years despite tanking and repeat top end draft picks, while other clubs can reload effectively in the middle of the draft. It's therefore about first round quantity vs. quality, to increase your chance of success. This is why I'm not going to get sad about missing out on Rowell/Anderson, or even Luko. There's every chance you pick up Connor Rozee a few picks later.

Anyway, I think this means we ask ourselves the following questions:

Question 1: When's the earliest next possible premiership window?
Think this is a matter of determining when you'll next have a premiership-winning core in that 25-27 year old range.

You might think it's 2022. In 3 years, the ~25-27 year old group will be

• Matt Crouch
• Jake Kelly
• Riley Knight
• ROB
• Doedee

Is that group winning a premiership off their own backs? I'm pessimistic. Wind it forward to 2024 and you've got a bunch of unknowns but more potential in the core:

• Doedee
• Milera
• Gallucci
• Elliot Himmelberg
• Murphy
• Stengle
• With some 24 year olds in Fogarty, Jones, McHenry backing them up

That'll have to do

Question 2: Of players who will be 30 or older in 2024, who has value now?
Laird, Brad Crouch, Hugh Greenwood, CEY, Seedsman, Keath, Brodie Smith, Hartigan, Talia, Lynch, Sloane

I think they've all got plenty to offer in the next 2-3 seasons, but they'll be fading away by 2022, and mostly done by 2024. Think this group all need to be aggressively on the radar to trade off to a club who thinks they have short-term value for a premiership tilt but are missing a piece. The strategy is effectively to do a Bryce Gibbs trade but be on the winning end.

Question 3: Trade them for picks if the opportunity comes up
You obviously can't gut the core entirely otherwise players won't want to be here (although not like they stay regardless). That said, if anyone in that group shows a hint of wanting to leave, they should be shown the door. Accumulate 2-3 draft picks in the 1-20 range over the course of the next 3 drafts.

Then by 2024 you have (in addition to the group above), potentially 6 high-end young guys and hopefully some decent pickups from other avenues along the way.

Addendum: anyone who will be well into retirement by 2024 doesn't get a game after this season
I say after this season because to be honest with only a few rounds left and given we're not owning our own draft picks, I don't mind just letting the old core have a few more runs around the park.

But add 5 years to Betts, Douglas, MacKay, Jenkins, Gibbs, Otten...think there are some "you might not ever get back out of the SANFL" discussions that need to be had. We need to know what we have with the 2024 core because if they can't hack it, we might need to take a hard look.

Obviously this is all hypothetical because the club is likely going to do nothing and make moves that will allow us to remain a middle-of-the-ladder side. But what are our other options?

tldr: think we can avoid another 10 years of mediocrity by aggressively trading out our current 'stars' and rebuilding around the likes of Doedee and Milera in 2024

 

[SugarShane]

2037. Except we’ll blow it and lose a GF to St Kilda, Melbourne, Freo or Tasmania.

 

[Redleg Crow]

My view

 

[Scorpus]

Anyone who hasn't been drafted in the last 4 years won't be there

 

[the universal]

You'd need a major overhaul of everything in this club before you can try to realistically predict the number of years it will take to get back into premiership contention.

With this core (admins/coaches/coaching competency), you're better off not even putting a number to it. It would be more than a decade. Unless something positively drastic happens, we're going to become and remain a Carlton.

 

[NavyRedGold]

My view
(snipped the picture)

The damning thing is that Doedee is literally the only sure-fire AA contender who'll still be in his mid-20s when we can next reload. And he's coming off an ACL next season.

 

[Redleg Crow]

The damning thing is that Doedee is literally the only sure-fire AA contender who'll still be in his mid-20s when we can next reload. And he's coming off an ACL next season.

Yep. Milera is not someone you build a team around. He has not shown me anything that suggests he'd get a BOG in a tough game let alone be AA level.

FOG, we all hope but is given no chance to grow
Gooch has skills but doesn't seem an AA type, though should have a long career (probably a better career somewhere else like Hawthorn :-( )

And Jones and Ned is just guessing at this point

 

[marty36]

We are fine we have the best recruitment manager in the business we are on fire expect a flag next year

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Juddernaut08]

This thread is about how to execute a rebuild in the modern AFL.

Preamble
Clearly this core isn't winning a premiership. This season we may miss the 8 and next season, if we keep a mix of current core and some new guys, we'll likely miss the 8 as guys like Jones, Fog and McHenry will take some time to get set. Even if we make the 8, are we competing against a mix of clubs with elite current lists and clubs with potentially elite young lists? Probably not.

The draft pick penalties and departures of two of our 2014 draft picks has meant we have no mid-20s supplemental core who the veterans could support going forward. This, along with the mishandling of 2018, is fundamentally why our premiership window was too short. You'd ordinarily be able to back up the core with a couple of seasons of young guns coming through. We had a wave and now we're done.

So how do we get back up and actually win one in the near future?

In my view: AFL is not a league like the NFL, NBA or NHL where your #1 pick might instantly become a game changer (in the NFL if it's a QB, in the NBA you might pick up LeBron James, in the NHL a Sidney Crosby/Alex Ovechkin). This is a sport where there are 18 guys out there at once and plenty of guys end the game having only touched the ball 15 times. Ultimately you have clubs like Melbourne and Carlton (despite recent form) which struggle at the bottom of the ladder for years despite tanking and repeat top end draft picks, while other clubs can reload effectively in the middle of the draft. It's therefore about first round quantity vs. quality, to increase your chance of success. This is why I'm not going to get sad about missing out on Rowell/Anderson, or even Luko. There's every chance you pick up Connor Rozee a few picks later.

Anyway, I think this means we ask ourselves the following questions:

Question 1: When's the earliest next possible premiership window?
Think this is a matter of determining when you'll next have a premiership-winning core in that 25-27 year old range.

You might think it's 2022. In 3 years, the ~25-27 year old group will be

• Matt Crouch
• Jake Kelly
• Riley Knight
• ROB
• Doedee

Is that group winning a premiership off their own backs? I'm pessimistic. Wind it forward to 2024 and you've got a bunch of unknowns but more potential in the core:

• Doedee
• Milera
• Gallucci
• Elliot Himmelberg
• Murphy
• Stengle
• With some 24 year olds in Fogarty, Jones, McHenry backing them up

That'll have to do

Question 2: Of players who will be 30 or older in 2024, who has value now?
Laird, Brad Crouch, Hugh Greenwood, CEY, Seedsman, Keath, Brodie Smith, Hartigan, Talia, Lynch, Sloane

I think they've all got plenty to offer in the next 2-3 seasons, but they'll be fading away by 2022, and mostly done by 2024. Think this group all need to be aggressively on the radar to trade off to a club who thinks they have short-term value for a premiership tilt but are missing a piece. The strategy is effectively to do a Bryce Gibbs trade but be on the winning end.

Question 3: Trade them for picks if the opportunity comes up
You obviously can't gut the core entirely otherwise players won't want to be here (although not like they stay regardless). That said, if anyone in that group shows a hint of wanting to leave, they should be shown the door. Accumulate 2-3 draft picks in the 1-20 range over the course of the next 3 drafts.

Then by 2024 you have (in addition to the group above), potentially 6 high-end young guys and hopefully some decent pickups from other avenues along the way.

Addendum: anyone who will be well into retirement by 2024 doesn't get a game after this season
I say after this season because to be honest with only a few rounds left and given we're not owning our own draft picks, I don't mind just letting the old core have a few more runs around the park.

But add 5 years to Betts, Douglas, MacKay, Jenkins, Gibbs, Otten...think there are some "you might not ever get back out of the SANFL" discussions that need to be had. We need to know what we have with the 2024 core because if they can't hack it, we might need to take a hard look.

Obviously this is all hypothetical because the club is likely going to do nothing and make moves that will allow us to remain a middle-of-the-ladder side. But what are our other options?

tldr: think we can avoid another 10 years of mediocrity by aggressively trading out our current 'stars' and rebuilding around the likes of Doedee and Milera in 2024

This is logical at first, and it is what SOS did. Problem is once you trade out a few of that middle core, that hole in the prime age range really hurts.

We traded out the likes of Tuohy, Gibbs, Henderson, Menzel, Yarran because they were the ones who had value. We also culled guys like Robinson and Waite for no value because we thought they wouldnt be part of our next flag.

This left us with the only ones in our core range as sam docherty and liam jones, plus whoever we could get in cheaply to "hold the fort" while the actual talented kids we brought in developed.

All this is to say, if you follow this method you will be in for some painful bottoming out.

 

[Vhaluus]

This is logical at first, and it is what SOS did. Problem is once you trade out a few of that middle core, that hole in the prime age range really hurts.

We traded out the likes of Tuohy, Gibbs, Henderson, Menzel, Yarran because they were the ones who had value. We also culled guys like Robinson and Waite for no value because we thought they wouldnt be part of our next flag.

This left us with the only ones in our core range as sam docherty and liam jones, plus whoever we could get in cheaply to "hold the fort" while the actual talented kids we brought in developed.

All this is to say, if you follow this method you will be in for some painful bottoming out.

Yeah but we just lost to a Carlton side that has done all that.

Really how much more painful can it get?

 

[Juddernaut08]

Yeah but we just lost to a Carlton side that has done all that.

Really how much more painful can it get?

Trust me, finishing bottom 4 for 3-5 years hurts a lot more.

 

[radiojake]

Absolutely no point in concerning ourselves with on-field/list management strategies while the board and coaching panel remains the way it is

 

[JPetro83]

Dark days ahead.. dont expect too much before 2025..

 

[CH Jazz]

Next premiership window is 6 years away. Everyone tradeable. Everyone.
Bottom out, trade everyone where an offer of a third or better is on the table and collect picks like its the end of days.
Start with Sloane, Crouch x2 for higher end picks. They won't be in our next premiership side so no need to keep them on the books.

 

[marty36]

Dark days ahead.. dont expect too much before 2025..

Was always coming, Tex Talia Betts Lynch Sloane Douglas Jacobs carried us through 2017, great players but age catches up with everyone

Simply haven't replaced them, maybe we have and they are still developing maybe we haven't

 

[Wheatbelt Crow]

I believe we should be turning over all, who played in the 2017 grand final, over the next 4 years. Trading all who have value and delisting/retiring the rest.

I wouldn’t do this all in the first year , I would definitely start with a severe cut.

That group is obviously broken/mentally fragile, we won’t go close to a flag while these players remain.

 

[marty36]

I believe we should be turning over all, who played in the 2017 grand final, over the next 4 years. Trading all who have value and delisting/retiring the rest.

I wouldn’t do this all in the first year , I would definitely start with a severe cut.

That group is obviously broken/mentally fragile, we won’t go close to a flag while these players remain.

I reckon they are old, forget the new age who haa they are simply Old

 

[SugarShane]

I believe we should be turning over all, who played in the 2017 grand final, over the next 4 years. Trading all who have value and delisting/retiring the rest.

I wouldn’t do this all in the first year , I would definitely start with a severe cut.

That group is obviously broken/mentally fragile, we won’t go close to a flag while these players remain.

West Coast had 12 players from the 2015 loss in the 2018 win. Apart from Gaff they turned over nearly half their team in 3 years. Meanwhile we are running with what, 16 of the 22 from Round 1 2016? The turnover should already be underway.

 

[Anzacpaul]

Trust me, finishing bottom 4 for 3-5 years hurts a lot more.

Look at this board now, and we're sitting in 8th.

Can you imagine if we finished bottom even once?

 

[Juddernaut08]

Look at this board now, and we're sitting in 8th.

Can you imagine if we finished bottom even once?

GC will finish bottom for the next 2-3. Even if you did blow it up you'd still finish no worse than 17th

 

[marty36]

GC will finish bottom for the next 2-3. Even if you did blow it up you'd still finish no worse than 17th

I think that's the issue, nit only does the AFC board not want to bottom out the AFC BF Board wont either

If it takes two or three years in 17th so be it, but wait there will be plenty saying our list wont take us that low

 

[PCORF]

We've had our chances over the years and it has finally caught up with the club. I cannot see another shot at finals for at least 5 more years and next year I'll be picking us to finish 14th-18th.

 

[marty36]

We've had our chances over the years and it has finally caught up with the club. I cannot see another shot at finals for at least 5 more years and next year I'll be picking us to finish 14th-18th.

We had our chance in 2017 Pyke squeezed almost everything out of an aging group

We have replenished the group so its dead, maybe Elite Crow is right those draft sanctions killed us maybe its bad recruiting

 

[jackster83]

How do we get there? First of all we've got to stop the train heading in the wrong direction. Straight up we need:

Burton sacked immediately
Full and transparent external review announced
Anyone over 30 and not in the side to be cleared out immediately. Don't even play them in the twos. Thanks and good luck
New chairman sworn in
Additional resources for our recruiting department and for player development. If we go over the soft cap, sell the e-sports team to recover some coin.

Happy for the club headquarters project to be put on hold, as this is more important.

 

[Elite Crow]

We had our chance in 2017 Pyke squeezed almost everything out of an aging group

We have replenished the group so its dead, maybe Elite Crow is right those draft sanctions killed us maybe its bad recruiting

There’s lots of reasons, I’ve outlined them many times, including player retention.

As for bad drafting, no one is going to nail every pick and considering the percentages with what he’s had to work with, Ogilvie has done a good job.

Would also help if we could attract players like West Coast.