Club Focus Adelaide 2020 - Hinge, Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Berry, Rowe, Hately

[Lore]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order (updated weekly) see the thread here.

 

[marty36]

The draft last year is differnt to this year... it appears to be a big difference after the first two ... and GC get a PP.. the the Crows pick become 4.. 2 picks in the teens ?

Adelaide don't need more good solid players like crouch and Sloane they need guns, would be a stupid move to trade for later picks, they need to roll the dice, they mustn't have any confidence in their recruitment manager Ogilvie, in getting that gun with an early pick and want to paly the safe option which will keep them competitive

 

[Johnny Bananas]

What would be the right picks to get pick 3?

GWS probably have an interest in getting a pick before Sydney, since Sydney are likely going to be the ones bidding on GWS' academy prospect Tom Green. So I can see them trading for pick 3. They have picks 12 and 13 currently, and if they don't match a bid for Cogs they probably get pick 14 as compensation. Maybe they could trade picks 12, 13 and 14 for 3 and 28?

 

[Old socks]

Adelaide don't need more good solid players like crouch and Sloane they need guns, would be a stupid move to trade for later picks, they need to roll the dice, they mustn't have any confidence in their recruitment manager Ogilvie, in getting that gun with an early pick and want to paly the safe option which will keep them competitive

It's smart thinking as the pick might still be pick 5

If you get 10 and 15 you might be able to get kemp Sharp both good long term players over a pick 5 who atm could be anyone

 

[Crow till I die]

Very likely it will be pick 3 as GC are almost certain to not get a front end PP wit the clubs pushing back hard against it, and that Sydney have the easier run home than carlton do and should do enough to stay ahead of them. If the pick was being traded then I would only look at 2 options (if possible) - 1 would be as part of a player + pick package to get Lukosius from GC - priority no 1. if not, then I would consider trading down for say a pick 6 & pick 12 for pick 3. Other than that, I would not be trading down - especially not for 2 teens picks

 

[Kwality]

OP spot on:

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-trades-2019-adelaide-st-kilda-both-set-to-put-top-draft-picks

August 14, 2019 5:00pm

• by TOM MORRIS AND MATT BALMER
• Source: FOX SPORTS

Adelaide and St Kilda will both be willing to deal their top draft picks in the upcoming trade period, with the Crows keen to get multiple picks back. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Adelaide has thrown Pick 3 on the table in a bold play to restock elite junior talent in just one national draft and rejuvenate its ageing list.
The Crows met with clubs late last week at Docklands café 90 Secondi as part of the annual prelude to October’s trade window. Discussions ranged from five minutes to half-an-hour.

So what do they mean by junior talent? Kids/ Young blokes on other AFL lists?

 

[Drewie11]

GWS probably have an interest in getting a pick before Sydney, since Sydney are likely going to be the ones bidding on GWS' academy prospect Tom Green. So I can see them trading for pick 3. They have picks 12 and 13 currently, and if they don't match a bid for Cogs they probably get pick 14 as compensation. Maybe they could trade picks 12, 13 and 14 for 3 and 28?

That doesn’t seem to bad, quick way of getting some youngsters into the club.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

That doesn’t seem to bad, quick way of getting some youngsters into the club.

Also out of the top four SA youngsters (Stephens, Gould, Day, Taheny), at least two should be available in that pick range, and possibly all four.

 

[Kwality]

That doesn’t seem to bad, quick way of getting some youngsters into the club.

You want kids, that'll be looking at the 100 game mark in the mid 20s, 2025-6 ??

 

[croweater 41]

GWS probably have an interest in getting a pick before Sydney, since Sydney are likely going to be the ones bidding on GWS' academy prospect Tom Green. So I can see them trading for pick 3. They have picks 12 and 13 currently, and if they don't match a bid for Cogs they probably get pick 14 as compensation. Maybe they could trade picks 12, 13 and 14 for 3 and 28?

12 is tied to Essendon so depending on what they get up to in the last two rounds it could be 9/10/11/12.

I wouldn't say no (GWS might depending on where the Ess pick falls) and then moving on other players along the way to stock up the 30-50 pick range as well replenish with some top 15 talent and then some development youngsters in the latter part of the draft.

 

[Turbocat]

Adelaide don't need more good solid players like crouch and Sloane they need guns, would be a stupid move to trade for later picks, they need to roll the dice, they mustn't have any confidence in their recruitment manager Ogilvie, in getting that gun with an early pick and want to paly the safe option which will keep them competitive

That may be so ..but as much as the top two are obvious now ... names like Boyd , Kelly and Billings were known in their year and Cripps went at 13.. Its rare that the kid most think is 1 becomes the best player from that draft. Perhap they just want to spread their chances , perhaps they have liked what Port did..
Would you prefer to trade with Gold Coast to get the #1pick ..

 

[marty36]

That may be so ..but as much as the top two are obvious now ... names like Boyd , Kelly and Billings were known in their year and Cripps went at 13.. Its rare that the kid most think is 1 becomes the best player from that draft. Perhap they just want to spread their chances , perhaps they have liked what Port did..
Would you prefer to trade with Gold Coast to get the #1pick ..

Port traded up to get Rozee big time, they didn't trade back for two first rounders, it was a ballsy move but looks like paying off they clearly rolled the dice and won .

There have been a number of players who have become superstars with later picks, that cannot be questioned

But do percentages say the higher the pick the more likely the success rate of a getting a gun, yes they do

So we could take the safe option and trade for a couple of late firsts or back yourself like Port did with Rozee and see what can be achieved

 

[kreglze]

Unless the Suns get stupid overs, I can't see us trading Lukosius for pick 3. Which is less than what GC took him at last year at & with 21 games of experience and a year of development under his belt.

Though... the club has disappointed me before.

 

[marty36]

Unless the Suns get stupid overs, I can't see us trading Lukosius for pick 3. Which is less than what GC took him at last year at & with 21 games of experience and a year of development under his belt.

Though... the club has disappointed me before.

The only reason they would, comes down to luko and his wants

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[Elmer_Hauser]

Crows cannot afford to assume Luko wants to come home at the end of next season, they should try and trade and plan for the future without Luko, even though I think it's 60-40 at this stage he will leave Gold Coast once his contract is up.

Crows need to bank their 1st rnd pick, and try trade for more 1st rnd/2nd rnd picks and try clear some cap space as well..

 

[Turbocat]

Port traded up to get Rozee big time, they didn't trade back for two first rounders, it was a ballsy move but looks like paying off they clearly rolled the dice and won .

There have been a number of players who have become superstars with later picks, that cannot be questioned

But do percentages say the higher the pick the more likely the success rate of a getting a gun, yes they do

So we could take the safe option and trade for a couple of late firsts or back yourself like Port did with Rozee and see what can be achieved

I was more ref the gathering of 3 players in the top 18... the way the article read afc want multiple youth additions now ..not to wait multiple drafts.. Yes the move to get Rozze will be looked on as a huge draft move win..

Without going into all the variances on what picks have delivered.. how often has certain clubs had hits and other continual mosses etc ..after all ..a pick is only a judgement in a cue... take the Rozze pick.. Port only got him because other did not take him.
Id conceed that the first round .. is more like two round .. 1-9 then 10-18.. ..in general single figure selections should have a better chance then in the teens.

 

[Crow till I die]

Unless the Suns get stupid overs, I can't see us trading Lukosius for pick 3. Which is less than what GC took him at last year at & with 21 games of experience and a year of development under his belt.

Though... the club has disappointed me before.

Agree. I think something closer to the mark might be pick 3, Greenwood and maybe a Jenkins for Lukosius - providing Lukosius wants out

 

[marty36]

I was more ref the gathering of 3 players in the top 18... the way the article read afc want multiple youth additions now ..not to wait multiple drafts.. Yes the move to get Rozze will be looked on as a huge draft move win..

Without going into all the variances on what picks have delivered.. how often has certain clubs had hits and other continual mosses etc ..after all ..a pick is only a judgement in a cue... take the Rozze pick.. Port only got him because other did not take him.
Id conceed that the first round .. is more like two round .. 1-9 then 10-18.. ..in general single figure selections should have a better chance then in the teens.

Agree staying in that top 10 increases your chances of getting that gun not always obviously but it increases the percentages

We really don't need anymore solid players we have plenty Fog is our real only great hope to be that at this stage with the fact he is a kpf helps

Milera is going to be good but consistency will be his problem galluci will be a solid player but no gun doedee is a 189 cm HB flanker so that counts you out of having huge influence

We really need to pick that next gun inside mid

Mchenry and Jones could be ok but outside mids

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[sregit]

Agree staying in that top 10 increases your chances of getting that gun not always obviously but it increases the percentages

We really don't need anymore solid players we have plenty Fog is our real only great hope to be that at this stage with the fact he is a kpf helps

Milera is going to be good but consistency will be his problem galluci will be a solid player but no gun doedee is a 189 cm HB flanker so that counts you out of having huge influence

We really need to pick that next gun inside mid

Mchenry and Jones could be ok but outside mids

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There are only2 midfielders considered top notch and likely stars. What can Adelaide offer for one of those picks? Pick 3 and what else?
All senior players talked up as possible trade options are past it. No other club (even gold coast) will trade either one or two for three and a discard. Especially not when picks 3 through 25 are seen as ho-hum. Draft is considered bereft of top talent.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

There are only2 midfielders considered top notch and likely stars. What can Adelaide offer for one of those picks? Pick 3 and what else?
All senior players talked up as possible trade options are past it. No other club (even gold coast) will trade either one or two for three and a discard. Especially not when picks 3 through 25 are seen as ho-hum. Draft is considered bereft of top talent.

Effectively why SOS and co chose to trade it. Just need to finish outside of the top 2 (Anderson/Rowell).

Suspect Adelaide will trade it. If they can get 2/3 first rounders in + a decent deal for Greenwood they are well on their way.

 

[Crow till I die]

There are only2 midfielders considered top notch and likely stars. What can Adelaide offer for one of those picks? Pick 3 and what else?
All senior players talked up as possible trade options are past it. No other club (even gold coast) will trade either one or two for three and a discard. Especially not when picks 3 through 25 are seen as ho-hum. Draft is considered bereft of top talent.

3 to 25 are ho hum are they. that is not what the draft boards are spruiking - guys that watch the kids. They say top 2 (but even then Anderson to the rest is no great gap) then there is a group of 4-5 kids similar - just wondering which draft you were referring to?

 

[TheGrizz]

Unless the Suns get stupid overs, I can't see us trading Lukosius for pick 3. Which is less than what GC took him at last year at & with 21 games of experience and a year of development under his belt.

Though... the club has disappointed me before.

If you get an end of 1st rounder as a priority pick:

Lukosius and pick 19, GCS 2019 third
For
Pick 3, pick 12, Crows 2020 2nd

 

[briztoon]

Adelaide don't need more good solid players like crouch and Sloane they need guns, would be a stupid move to trade for later picks, they need to roll the dice, they mustn't have any confidence in their recruitment manager Ogilvie, in getting that gun with an early pick and want to paly the safe option which will keep them competitive

Gees some fans look at things weirdly.

Have you followed any draft discussion at all this year?

Do you not think the clubs list manager has consulted Ogilvie on this years draft?

All year the talk has been there’s a top two, and then a gap to next best talent, which is pretty even out to maybe pick 15/20’ish territory.

If you’re currently holding pick 3, which might become pick 4 if GC get a PP, some clubs might want two bites of the cherry if it’s at all possible.

Especially when some local talent is expected to go a little later.

 

[briztoon]

Port traded up to get Rozee big time, they didn't trade back for two first rounders, it was a ballsy move but looks like paying off they clearly rolled the dice and won .

There have been a number of players who have become superstars with later picks, that cannot be questioned

But do percentages say the higher the pick the more likely the success rate of a getting a gun, yes they do

So we could take the safe option and trade for a couple of late firsts or back yourself like Port did with Rozee and see what can be achieved

This years draft is very different to last years. Far less top end talent. And the next tier is no where near as good as last years second tier.

I’ve heard a suggestion that Duursma who went at pick 16 last year to Port, would be a top 5 pick if he was in this years draft. And that’s off his U18 form, and not taking in to account this year at AFL level.

 

[briztoon]

If you get an end of 1st rounder as a priority pick:

Lukosius and pick 19, GCS 2019 third
For
Pick 3, pick 12, Crows 2020 2nd

No.

 

[marty36]

Gees some fans look at things weirdly.

Have you followed any draft discussion at all this year?

Do you not think the clubs list manager has consulted Ogilvie on this years draft?

All year the talk has been there’s a top two, and then a gap to next best talent, which is pretty even out to maybe pick 15/20’ish territory.

If you’re currently holding pick 3, which might become pick 4 if GC get a PP, some clubs might want two bites of the cherry if it’s at all possible.

Especially when some local talent is expected to go a little later.

Then it would be very unusual for any club to want pick 3 or 4 now wouldn't it

So are they wrong in wanting our pick 3 or 4

Please explain

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