Bluemour Discussion Thread XVIII - Please Sir, Can We Have More?

[zeggie]

Would it be possible GWS wanting to match the offer just to grab our first pick? I'm also insinuating that Cogs knows of their plans...

Just a thought..

Yes, possible but it'll never come to that. It would be a trade ala. Dangerfield if anything.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Interesting rumour from TCP.

Would presumably indicate that someone has offered an ultimatum. Either GWS have said "if you're staying, we need to know this week so we can sort out everyone else's contracts", or Carlton have said "if you're serious about coming, we need assurances this week or we're going to assume you're playing the field and start shopping elsewhere".

I don't think we'd do the latter, we can chase other targets to our hearts' content and reassess if/when Cogs gives us an update.

Possible that GWS have told him to decide now, though. They've probably got other managers breathing down their necks trying to get contracts signed off, but until Cogs makes his call GWS have no idea how much money they're working with and who they might need to lock in long-term.

 

[zeggie]

I love Harry and do not want to trade him.

But people need to relax. The trade idea involved trading Harry (and pick) for Grundy. It's not all the gold in Fort Knox for a bag of magic beans.

I can see both sides of the argument, but trading Harry out will be Josh Kennedy all over again.

 

[Sin City]

What do all the rabbit emojis mean?

 

[Jorge]

Sounds like the club have been told it’s Giants or Blues and that the decision will be made this week. If it’s us, obviously no announcements will be made. If it’s Giants, we’ll hear about it.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

As much as I respect TCP's input, there's enough conflicting chatter re Hawks for me not to get my hopes up.

 

[reg_lower91]

I’ve also been told that Hawthorn have been informed it won’t be them. It’s Us or GWS. Genuine 50/50 at this point.

I too think it depends on how GWS perform this finals campaign (that part is my opinion).

 

[zeggie]

Interesting rumour from TCP.

Would presumably indicate that someone has offered an ultimatum. Either GWS have said "if you're staying, we need to know this week so we can sort out everyone else's contracts", or Carlton have said "if you're serious about coming, we need assurances this week or we're going to assume you're playing the field and start shopping elsewhere".

Neither.

More likely to be a third scenario - Cogs management SSM are pressuring GWS for their best and final offer.

 

[bigdog43]

The Bulldogs are really making a case to be every Carlton supporters second team

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I’ve also been told that Hawthorn have been informed it won’t be them. It’s Us or GWS. Genuine 50/50 at this point.

I too think it depends on how GWS perform this finals campaign (that part is my opinion).

Can’t be a decision this week based on your opinion then.

 

[reubsblues]

Bulldogs will flog gws this wk
Welcome to the blues cogs

 

[ferrisb]

 

[Coops93]

What do all the rabbit emojis mean?

I'm pretty sure Italian means Coniglio in Rabbit.

 

[DangerousD]

As if you wouldn’t want B. Crouch just to see SOS destroy young Reid at the trade table again.

Destroyed like in the McGovern trade?

 

[Just Kreuzing]

I'm pretty sure Italian means Coniglio in Rabbit.

I thought rabbit meant Italian in Coniglio....

 

[RoyalBlues]

I’ve also been told that Hawthorn have been informed it won’t be them. It’s Us or GWS. Genuine 50/50 at this point.

I too think it depends on how GWS perform this finals campaign (that part is my opinion).

Reg, my understanding is that how GWS perform in the finals, affects the timing of an announcement rather than a decision. That being the case, we’d know more in 2 or 3 weeks (if it’s us) and 1 or so, if he stays (finals boost).

 

[Jabba73]

Is it the end of the week yet?

 

[Juddernaut08]

I love Harry and do not want to trade him.

But people need to relax. The trade idea involved trading Harry (and pick) for Grundy. It's not all the gold in Fort Knox for a bag of magic beans.

Our long-term KPFs: Charlie, Harry, McGov, TDK (fwd/ruck?)

Our long-term rucks: TDK (fwd/ruck?)

Over the next 2-3 years, swapping out Harry for Grundy would make us a better team. Grundy is neck and neck with Cripps as the best player in the league IMO.

Again, not saying we do that trade. Or that we should trade Harry at all. Or that I would accept less than 3 first rounders for Harry. BUT I can understand where BrisbaneCFC is coming from.

If I could pick between two list managers; A) Let's keep all our good players, no matter what or B) Let's try and recruit what we are missing and sell high what we have somewhat of a surplus of......My heart likes A, but my head says B brings more success.

I'd trade Harry for Grundy in a heart beat.

 

[Heres Waite]

One thing i'm feeling positive about is how firm some of our ITK's have been about Coniglio...we didn't get such confident statements with Shiel.
Although b70 did recently say Carlton hadn't heard from Cogs camp and that he was more likely to stay at GWS than come to Carlton...but i'm choosing to believe he's just keeping it hush as instructed Has said numerous times he won't go to Hawthorn.

Also, while there's a bunch of rumours flying around about Cogs to Hawthorn from Hawthorn posters, none appear to have a credible track record. There are 2 credible ITK's on their board and neither have confirmed the rumour.

Just wondering, who are the credible ITK's on their board?

I'm guessing that it is not Nash88. He reminds me a lot of Earls "take it to the bank" Pearls.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Would it be possible GWS wanting to match the offer just to grab our first pick? I'm also insinuating that Cogs knows of their plans...

Just a thought..

Very difficult for them to do.

In order for GWS to match an offer, they have to provide the same contract length, base salary, match payment rates, additional services payments and performance incentives. The "ambassador" payments from the AFL don't help with that, they're a separate thing entirely. So if we offer 7 years on $1.1mil per season (heavily frontloaded then tapering to "normal"), then GWS have to be prepared to give him the same. They can pace the TPP component differently (ie. $1.1 mil per season for 7 years, no front-loading), but the total contract value has to be the same. Given their list profile, that would cripple them, they're likely already at the cap, and don't have the benefit of having banked extra space for the last couple of years like us.

If the AFL are meddling and trying to convince Coniglio to stay at GWS with extra ambassadorial payments, the only way it works is if they can bridge enough of the gap between GWS's contract limit and what we're tabling that Coniglio chooses to re-sign with GWS. All they'd be doing, though, is topping up his salary. If Coniglio has concerns about their coach, or their medical team, or living in Sydney, or playing in front of small crowds, or their finals chances, or any combination of the aforementioned, the possible AFL payout doesn't help one bit.

So, let's assume that GWS are offering significantly less than Carlton, and the AFL are able to bridge half of the shortfall without it looking too much like tampering.

**NOTE: the following figures are completely hypothetical**
GWS can afford to pay him $800k per season.
Carlton are offering $1.1mil per season (front loaded).
AFL table a $150k per season Ambassadorial package.

If the extra payments are enough to convince him to stay, Cogs just re-signs and all the evidence is locked in Gil's cupboard. We won't hear anything about it unless some ballsy journo decides to try and out them, possibly having their AFL accreditation burned in the process. It'll just be "Coniglio decided to stay".

If not, he nominates Carlton and GWS would have to clear some serious cap space to match our offer and either force him to stay, or force us to the trade table.

(They cannot force us to trade without matching the bid. The only reason it worked with Dangerfield was that Geelong had a rigid pay structure in place and Adelaide were actually capable of matching the bid. Both sides knew that, and so rather than wasting time with RFA paperwork they simply worked out a suitable trade and got it done.)

As above, matching a bid requires the club to match the terms in relation to: contract length, base payments, match payment rates, additional services payments, peformance incentives (except finals appearances). If Cogs nominates us, and our contract terms are too expensive for GWS, they can't match the bid regardless of how much marketing money the AFL throw into the pot.

Left field possibility - he nominates Hawthorn, who are presumably offering less than us, and closer to GWS. Very real chance that GWS could match their bid and force a trade. That may be a factor in Coniglio (and his manager's) thinking - that a deal with Carlton gets done immediately in FA week, while one with Hawthorn may drag out and fall apart. That being said, Hawthorn would be able to use their current and future first rounders in a trade if required.

If Cogs nominates us, he's coming to us as a free agent, no other realistic outcome.
If he nominates Hawthorn, there is a decent chance GWS match a bid and force a trade to try and get hold of Pick 10 and change instead of Pick 12-15 as compo.
If he chooses to stay at GWS, we'll likely never know what (if any) AFL involvement was a factor.

 

[Sin City]

I'm pretty sure Italian means Coniglio in Rabbit.

Thanks, I know coelho means rabbit in Portuguese which is also a Romance language. Must be a lot of rabbits over that way to have so many names for them, guess the Great Wall of china keeps them on that side

 

[myblueroan]

Too soon?

View attachment 734217

nope. that's how he always looks in my dream where we win the 17th.
I mean, look how good that is. Now imagine yourself in a high end shop where you can have this finest cashmere sweater as pictured or a garish ill-fitting orange kind of one,
or, yes, you guessed it; your thoughts when they bring out a dirty brown and icky yellow striped one?
Exactly!
He'll take the navy thanks.

 

[SuperSic]

Don't know if it was an old photo but I saw a photo on facebook of Cogs and Jager together. The post claimed it was this weekend though.

That photo was from last night. For evidence look at Jaeger’s eye, bruised and cut as per the game on Saturday night.

 

[KingCharles]

Just wanted to say, we miss you barass70

 

[Blue__Balls]

Neither.

More likely to be a third scenario - Cogs management SSM are pressuring GWS for their best and final offer.

Doubt they're ekeing much more out of GWS, gotta be pretty well tapped out as far as salary space goes and they'd already be doing everything they could to retain him. Sounds like the ball is in Coniglio's court at the moment