Bluemour Discussion Thread XVIII - Please Sir, Can We Have More?

[BringBackSimmo]

It really is as simple as this.

Or we could hold onto pick 8 in a crap draft.

Will Caleb Serong still be around at Pick 8?

 

[zeggie]

Gotta feel for Levi, probably had his best year as a Blue, and his future is still up in the air.

Not really. Ball is in his court. He's contracted for 2020. If he wants to take a 2-3 year deal from GC then that's his choice to make.

 

[Zlatan]

Will Caleb Serong still be around at Pick 8?

No idea - but if we need pick 8 to get Papley, that’s where it should go.

 

[BrownDog20]

Cunningham McKay Martin
McGovern Curnow Papley

When this forward line is up and about there wouldn’t be too many other teams that would have a more dangerous setup.

Papley and Martin would be huge to our structure.

 

[BringBackSimmo]

No idea - but if we need pick 8 to get Papley, that’s where it should go.

I guess that's fair, plus i get the sense he probably won't be anyway.

 

[Robbo's my hero]

No thanks

If it’s a choice I’m taking Rose!

 

[zeggie]

I’m a huge Papley fan but using 2 x 1sts is out of the question.

For mine :

Pick 8 and future 1st for Wines and 2nd.

Except that Port would never accept that deal.

Papley is absolutely more needed than Wines where the squad is right now.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Cunningham McKay Martin
McGovern Curnow Papley

When this forward line is up and about there wouldn’t be too many other teams that would have a more dangerous setup.

Papley and Martin would be huge to our structure.

Frightening forward line when up and running.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Its a long list, i think its more which one can we get. Wines definitely has come up.

There's a definite name we've been after that people are tiptoeing around though. Some ITKs and even the AFL website now has mentioned a blue chip mid we're after but there's a reluctance to name names.

 

[Aphrodite]

Talented mid to stay with Port after exploring options, Gray may move

Port Adelaide has off-season victory by securing the signature of talented midfielder Karl Amon

www.afl.com.au

His (Karl Amon) decision to stay comes as teammate Sam Gray explores his options over the next fortnight after recovering from minor shoulder surgery.

Gray, who kicked 20 goals from as many matches this year, has received interest from multiple clubs including Carlton and Western Bulldogs (who are both seeking a small forward).

 

[BrownDog20]

Frightening forward line when up and running.

Cunningham’s front and centre goal late in the game against the bulldogs was first class, guy could be anything with a clean run

 

[F_therest]

Cunningham McKay Martin
McGovern Curnow Papley

When this forward line is up and about there wouldn’t be too many other teams that would have a more dangerous setup.

Papley and Martin would be huge to our structure.

That's best forward line in the league material.

How long has it been since we could say that?

 

[Burgers45]

Daniher will get to Syd and Papley will get to us

We may have to hand in our 2019 and 2020 firsts with 2 seconds and Cameron in return

Looks like SOS has to make a choice between Martin or Papley then. GC will want a 1st for Martin and we won't have one. (Unless we can get Levi or some other 2nd tier player to go there.)

 

[F_therest]

Cunningham’s front and centre goal late in the game against the bulldogs was first class, guy could be anything with a clean run

And that goal against Hawthorn where he fended off Stratton and kicked a drop punt goal from near the boundary...class.

 

[Blue Chip Pass]

Hello all, I was curious to compare some stats of some key Small forwards.
Some ours, some we are targeting and the top shelf. Their game averages Over their AFL career
And yes I know they can play different roles ie. on ball.

Player Marks Disp Goals Tackles
D Cunningham 3 13.56 0.56 3.6
M Gibbons 3.29 14.67 0.76 2.71
Dan Butler 1.98 11 1.18 3.56
J Martin 4.97 16.35 0.84 3.71
Sam Gray 3.98 17.90 0.86 3.46
E Betts 2.92 12.31 1.9 3.09
Tom Papley 3.6 14.24 1.46 3.39
C Cameron 2.99 12.33 1.49 3.3
M Walters 3.97 17.02 1.73 2.83

Not a huge difference in Disposals & Tackles.
Seems to me, anyone with a goal avg above 1 is very good. Mid High ones elite.
On the stats above, I think picking up Betts & Butler would be a good get.
Your thoughts??

 

[Siegfried]

Re: Draft picks, and forgive me for I posted this back in 2017. The stats are a little out of date, and I haven't updated it since then, but the point I think is still valid, that outside the top 5 or so picks, the odds of getting a 150 game player actually aren't as good as we might think. Here is the original post copied and pasted (I've removed the discussion around a Gibbs trade that was relevant at the time, and added in some more relevant discussion around our current picks)...

Below is the percentage chance of getting a 150 game player from each draft pick, from the 2000-2015 drafts. There is also the percentage chance of getting a 150 game player within a 5 pick range (1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20).

It's imperfect, as recent draftees are still playing, so some subjective judgments have been made on whether they'll reach 150 games. (2019 edit - it also doesn't take into account the quality of games.)

I think it gives a decent picture of the true value of draft picks. For example, our current pick 8 has a 47% chance of playing 150 games. Out future first, if we finish between 8th and 11th would have anywhere between 27-47% chance of playing 150 games. What are the odds that Papley, if he came to Carlton, would play 150 games? (Remember, these are simply odds, it doesn't mean pick 8 won't become a 300 game star.)

Pick / % chance of 150 game player:

1 / 100
2 / 87
3 / 87
4 / 40
5 / 80
1-5 / 79

6 / 27
7 / 60
8 / 47
9 / 47
10 / 40
6-10 / 44

11 / 27
12 / 60
13 / 60
14 / 67
15 / 47
11-15 / 52

16 / 27
17 / 27
18 / 40
19 / 40
20 / 33
16-20 / 33

 

[agro]

Meeting with Martin went very well..

So Adrian Dodoro was not involved, good.

 

[bigblueboy]

We will pay slight overs to get who we need in the eyes of those on footy forums. Don't fret, the value of our picks this year and next is overrated in comparison to the talent and purpose we are chasing.

 

[myblueroan]

There's a definite name we've been after that people are tiptoeing around though. Some ITKs and even the AFL website now has mentioned a blue chip mid we're after but there's a reluctance to name names.

Let's keep it that way eh?
Sacrifice a few likes in order to let the club get on with what they need to.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

Don’t believe it — they will

AFL trades 2019: Carlton bosses in ‘power struggle’ over Eddie Betts trade, Alex Keath tours St Kilda

Trade Whispers: Blues bosses in ‘power struggle’ over Eddie Betts

www.foxsports.com.au

INTERNAL BLUES ‘POWER STRUGGLE’ OVER BETTS TRADE

Don’t believe it -seems like nonsense —

 

[BringBackSimmo]

That's best forward line in the league material.

How long has it been since we could say that?

Despite coming last, 2006 we had a helluva forward line, perhaps not best in the league but strong.. though only Fevola was really kicking goals.

Betts (20 goals from 21 games)
Fevola (84 goals from 21 games)
Lappin (9 goals from 19 games)
Kennedy (5 goals from 9 games)
Waite (18 goals from 13 games)
Whitnall (15 goals from 22 games)

 

[F_therest]

We will pay slight overs to get who we need in the eyes of those on footy forums. Don't fret, the value of our picks this year and next is overrated in comparison to the talent and purpose we are chasing.

That's the other thing that should be considered that most people here neglect.

Most of us have no idea about the current draft crop really...some will say they know just based on reading some phantom drafts from Twomey or Knightmare or a 3 minute Youtube highlights clip.

People see pick 8 or '2 first rounders' and freak out...but SOS would be taking into account the actual players likely to go around that pick, and he may deem them to be not that high a standard and for arguments sake, may rate them in the 20's if they were in last years draft and therefore would be willing to do the Papley trade, even if on pure number value it looks like overs.

 

[Jimmyonesix]

It is, but given how often one or both are unavailable, I'd suggest we would be far better off bringing in someone who could play straight away.

Neither are known for their durability.

If worried about Phillips availability hope he finds a contract elsewhere —

 

[Arr0w]

Who's the gun mid we're after? Is it Wines?

Not Wines

 

[stuballs]

Alright which one of you was it,

Jacks wiki