Prediction Possible pick swaps

[Draft Bored]

Lets assume a Green selection doesn't come, can anyone tell me what happens if GWS take someone like Jackson at 6 and then Green is selected at 7?

Can GWS match? And if so how do they pay with nowhere near enough points this year.

Are they;

- given 5 mins to try to trade future picks into this draft?
- or do they go into next year with a points deficit? If so how is the deficit applied next year?
- or simply can't match?

 

[scratchy09]

Lets assume a Green selection doesn't come, can anyone tell me what happens if GWS take someone like Jackson at 6 and then Green is selected at 7?

Can GWS match? And if so how do they pay with nowhere near enough points this year.

Are they;

- given 5 mins to try to trade future picks into this draft?
- or do they go into next year with a points deficit? If so how is the deficit applied next year?
- or simply can't match?

I believe they would be 582 points in debt for next season. Not sure what the most you can go into debt is but that is what they'd be roughly.

 

[rgauci]

Richmond in a similar position.
Pick 19 , then 3 picks around 40, then pick 56 then 70-odd.
It depends on how many 'live' picks we plan on using. If only 3, then I could see us offering pick 56 + 2 of ~40 for Freo's pick 22, which they would otherwise use on Liam Henry points. We could afford to be generous to make it a win-win.
Otherwise it looks like trading 56 & ~40 for future picks to a club like Saints, West Coast, Melbourne or Collingwood who would find them handy this year.
Brisbane & Adelaide having a similar range of picks to Richmond and may have similar strategies, but depends on how many picks each club wants to use.

I would think Fremantle would get all 3 picks around 40 with us contributing 58. I’m not sure how that adds up. Most teams with the lower pick gain 25-30% in points value by trading down.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Lets assume a Green selection doesn't come, can anyone tell me what happens if GWS take someone like Jackson at 6 and then Green is selected at 7?

Can GWS match? And if so how do they pay with nowhere near enough points this year.

Are they;

- given 5 mins to try to trade future picks into this draft?
- or do they go into next year with a points deficit? If so how is the deficit applied next year?
- or simply can't match?

The deficit is taken off their first round in 2020.

 

[raffrox]

We've already said that we're planning to, I believe. I'm happy to take the risk, if we bounce back to 2017-18 form a good small forward is one of our major needs.

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Carlton apparently with a potential bid at 9.

Knightmare has us bidding at 8 too

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Have you got any kind of anything where the Dees have said that they are bidding on Henry?

Knightmare hasn't had his last minute inside word yet (aka a player he didn't previously rate suddenly shooting up the charts) so not sure that means too much.

Don't get me wrong, I think there's still a good chance that the Dee's will bid on Henry but I think you're speaking with a bit too much certainty there.

 

[smurfin]

I would think Fremantle would get all 3 picks around 40 with us contributing 58. I’m not sure how that adds up. Most teams with the lower pick gain 25-30% in points value by trading down.

Pick 22 = 845 points (Freo)
Pick 38, 41, 56 = 1071 points (Richmond)
Win-win.
Freo use 7, 10 then gain an extra 226 points for Henry bid-matching. Possibly 56, definitely 59 still there if they want a 4th selection.
Richmond have 19, 22, 39, 75....

I'm not sure Richmond would also throw in pick 39 for 59 back. Makes our 3rd selection a big downgrade.

 

[rgauci]

Pick 22 = 845 points (Freo)
Pick 38, 41, 56 = 1071 points (Richmond)
Win-win.
Freo use 7, 10 then gain an extra 226 points for Henry bid-matching. Possibly 56, definitely 59 still there if they want a 4th selection.
Richmond have 19, 22, 39, 75....

I'm not sure Richmond would also throw in pick 39 for 59 back. Makes our 3rd selection a big downgrade.

We don’t have enough list spots to accommodate 1 pick becoming 3 picks.

 

[Oscarman]

Anyone heard about Freo swapping 7 and 10 to Melbourne for pick 3?

 

[smurfin]

We don’t have enough list spots to accommodate 1 pick becoming 3 picks.

And that's where this all becomes way too hard.
How many picks can each club take into the draft? Not known at this stage until list lodgement, etc.
Then, how many picks does each club actually plan on using?

 

[rgauci]

And that's where this all becomes way too hard.
How many picks can each club take into the draft? Not known at this stage until list lodgement, etc.
Then, how many picks does each club actually plan on using?

Our list isn’t even finalized. We assume we’ll be delisting more to give us flexibility come draft night. Usually, we delist them quite late so other clubs can’t interview them, perform medical and change strategy. We usually then redraft them as late picks or rookies.

I can see Giro, North and potentially Bewley going down this path. Time will tell. Could do Colyer too.

 

[Andre the Giant]

That's be a change of pace

Certainly would. We never have that lure and as we don’t have the promise of blockbuster games or a big fan base! Our best chance is a Sydney girlfriend that is a ball breaker but in that case they are usually Eastern Suburbs Swans types!

 

[rgauci]

If Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney get too greedy with GWS. They could easily trade out pick 6. Slide back in the draft. Then re-trade back in.

If they have a specific target, that may not interest them at all.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Certainly would. We never have that lure and as we don’t have the promise of blockbuster games or a big fan base! Our best chance is a Sydney girlfriend that is a ball breaker but in that case they are usually Eastern Suburbs Swans types!

Please don't match the bid lol- we'll take him at 5.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Anyone heard about Freo swapping 7 and 10 to Melbourne for pick 3?

Don't see it happening when Freo's first 2 picks are well within the range of the Sandgroper pair Robertson & Jackson.....If an early bid comes for Henry, as the premier small forward in the league, then they'll have a difficult decision on their hands to make there.

If Melbourne, Adelaide, Sydney get too greedy with GWS. They could easily trade out pick 6. Slide back in the draft. Then re-trade back in.

If they have a specific target, that may not interest them at all.

They've already traded out picks 12 & 18 for 6....That would be both self-defeating & merely exacerbate the law of diminishing returns, so far as value goes.

 

[B4Bear]

This going into deficit next year is a rort. You either have the picks and points this year, or you don't.

Gives a massive leg up to clubs getting acadamy prospects.

It is ****ing over the rest of the competition for a few, and it sucks.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Please don't match the bid lol- we'll take him at 5.

He’s a ripper and would be a perfect (eventual) replacement for Josh Kennedy. We would burn the joint down if they bypassed him.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He’s a ripper and would be a perfect (eventual) replacement for Josh Kennedy. We would burn the joint down if they bypassed him.

Was worth a try lol. We are 100% certain to bid if he was available. I'd be amazed if he isn't 2nd or 3rd at worst on our board.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

This going into deficit next year is a rort. You either have the picks and points this year, or you don't.

Gives a massive leg up to clubs getting acadamy prospects.

It is ******* over the rest of the competition for a few, and it sucks.

How? You do know the first round pick next year almost becomes redundant from GWS if they enter into deficit.

 

[rgauci]

Don't see it happening when Freo's first 2 picks are well within the range of the Sandgroper pair Robertson & Jackson.....If an early bid comes for Henry, as the premier small forward in the league, then they'll have a difficult decision on their hands to make there.



They've already traded out picks 12 & 18 for 6....That would be both self-defeating & merely exacerbate the law of diminishing returns, so far as value goes.

1) pick 6 (GWS) to Fremantle for future 1st (Freo 2020)
2) Wait for Green bid
3) Future 1st (GWS) to Fremantle for pick 10

both clubs get picks before academy players, GWS upgrade future first, Fremantle upgrade 2019 first from 10 to 6.

Fremantle risk losing a top 3 pick for pick 20 if GWS get the flag.

 

[smurfin]

Our list isn’t even finalized. We assume we’ll be delisting more to give us flexibility come draft night. Usually, we delist them quite late so other clubs can’t interview them, perform medical and change strategy. We usually then redraft them as late picks or rookies.

I can see Giro, North and potentially Bewley going down this path. Time will tell. Could do Colyer too.

I can't even get my head around where Richmond's list is at.
Grigg retired, but Pickett replaced him in the midseason draft.
Ellis & Butler out, but rookies have signed new contracts, does that make them main list or not? (Stack, Baker, Chol...)
Possibly Miller and Moore delisted ( maybe Menadue?). Could be Townsend and other rookies delisted?
I'm just assuming that we will only use 3 picks in the draft.

 

[Crow till I die]

Don't see it happening when Freo's first 2 picks are well within the range of the Sandgroper pair Robertson & Jackson.....If an early bid comes for Henry, as the premier small forward in the league, then they'll have a difficult decision on their hands to make there.



They've already traded out picks 12 & 18 for 6....That would be both self-defeating & merely exacerbate the law of diminishing returns, so far as value goes.

not sure about that. I'd imagine there would be afew clubs willing to pay a premium for pick 6. Geelong have been open about wanting a top end pick and you never know, Port might be sniffing as they have shown a willingness to spend big to trade up if they want a player

 

[Andre the Giant]

This going into deficit next year is a rort. You either have the picks and points this year, or you don't.

Gives a massive leg up to clubs getting acadamy prospects.

It is ******* over the rest of the competition for a few, and it sucks.

The real rort is the NGA. Established clubs who have access to Father/Son and in the case of Victoria produce nearly 60% of the draftable talent getting a free hit because Eddie couldn’t handle minor state academies and claimed the sky was falling.

The AFL should just limit each club to a maximum of one pre-draft Academy selection or Father-Son and put everyone else through the draft.

This would stop stockpiling of talent and also make the draft a bit less compromised.

Next years draft will be a complete joke and be about as relevant as the AFLW debacle.

 

[Procrastinator35]

1) pick 6 (GWS) to Fremantle for future 1st (Freo 2020)
2) Wait for Green bid
3) Future 1st (GWS) to Fremantle for pick 10

both clubs get picks before academy players, GWS upgrade future first, Fremantle upgrade 2019 first from 10 to 6.

Fremantle risk losing a top 3 pick for pick 20 if GWS get the flag.

It's that last sentence that's the killer in that mooted scenario for me.

Why would Freo do that for, when they can already walk away from this draft with all of Robertson, Jackson & Henry, should no one pick Henry before 10.

Melbourne at 8 is the obvious potential spoiler, given their need for a class small forward.

 

[rgauci]

It's that last sentence that's the killer in that mooted scenario for me.

Why would Freo do that for, when they can already walk away from this draft with all of Robertson, Jackson & Henry, should no one pick Henry before 10.

Melbourne at 8 is the obvious potential spoiler, given their need for a class small forward.

Never try and understand our club, we are an enigma.

 

[anotherletdown]

Unless it's Sydney at pick 5, in which case he'll already be home.....Oopsies!

and we will bid. You can put your house on it