Analysis Coronavirus - The Impact II

[DanWCE]

She probably is, though I suspect there are others who should be taking way more blame. At times like this it's more important than ever to have trustworthy people around you to shape important decisions. She got thrown under the bus hard.

Maybe, but she's got a track record of being shit. Doesn't affect me but I reckon she'll get the boot. We've seen others booted for less.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

So you are saying a minister (Hawkes) directly interfered and ordered that a ship be allowed to dock just so his family could get off. I call b***s***.

Recommend you take the aluminium foil off your windows, take your tin hat off and go and join a conspiracy site.

Note - The moon landings did happen, the world is not flat, 9-11 was not a US Government plot to start a war and AIDS did not start in a CIA lab. Trump may well be an alien but I can assure you Elvis is not working at HJ's.

lmao

Weird how Morrison waited till straight AFTER the end of a two week Hillsong conference to restrict international arrivals. Another conspiracy. Or how marginal electorates managed to score big in the Sports Rorts saga. Or how Frydenburg just happened to seemingly intervene in an investigation into illegal land clearing of protected grasslands that Angus Taylors family held an interest in. Or how about that time Tony Abbott visited George Pell at the Vatican, prior to it being revealed Vic Pol were investigating him over alleged child abuse.

The Federal LNP racks up coincidences like Gaff racks ball. I doubt Alex Hawke had to order anything, that is not the way these things work.

 

[Rowan18]

This is an interesting article that suggests lockdown essentially continues in some form until there is a vaccine. It points out that even when the infections are nearly down to zero, there is a chance they can start up again. It starts to raise the question around what is the point of all this? We cant stay locked up beyond 6 months or the economy will be pretty much cooked. Maybe countries like USA will come out better from this in the medium term, once most of their population have immunity.

Data reveals why our isolation can't just end when we've flattened the curve

Data suggests Australia's strict physical-distancing measures are beginning to work — but the risks are huge if we relax too quickly.

mobile.abc.net.au

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

This is an interesting article that suggests lockdown essentially continues in some form until there is a vaccine. It points out that even when the infections are nearly down to zero, there is a chance they can start up again. It starts to raise the question around what is the point of all this? We cant stay locked up beyond 6 months or the economy will be pretty much cooked. Maybe countries like USA will come out better from this in the medium term, once most of their population have immunity.

Data reveals why our isolation can't just end when we've flattened the curve

Data suggests Australia's strict physical-distancing measures are beginning to work — but the risks are huge if we relax too quickly.

mobile.abc.net.au

It has to.

If Australia had acted more rapidly and Morrison not acted like a complete muppet, there would be a chance for a limited resumption of travel and reboot of East Asian/Pacific commerce, probably well ahead of a vaccine or recovery in Europe and the US.

Thats because a number of East Asian states have all but eliminated or severely restricted spread. Their populations are still vulnerable, due to a lack of herd immunity, but I think that is where you will see the quickest rebound in terms of the global economy, particularly if strict enough and smart enough protocols for essential travel are established. Things like a special class of Visa dependant on a recent negative COVID-1 test, willingness to undergo a mandatory quarantine period etc.

If there is low-zero spread within two separate states and they start to harmonise pandemic response, along the lines of testing, sophisticated contact tracing, treatment and perhaps bilateral agreements over shouldering costs of airline subsidies and potential medical costs for inbound/outbound travellers, it makes sense that they will move forward more quickly.

Its almost certain though that this has accelerated the decline of the US as the global economic hegemony.

However more broadly, and as the Spanish flu showed, the risk of repeat pandemics is real. Particularly if economies are softened and therefore less able to respond to new outbreaks. The real test will be in 8ish months, when winter approaches for the Northern Hemisphere. By that time many countries may have flattened the curve and the economic pause will be hurting budgets. Eased internal restrictions+flu season, so lowered immune systems and a new wave of hospitalisations because of seasonal flu or H1N1, create a prime breeding ground for another COVID wave.

Thus all but a handful of nations will again have to implement stringent containment measures.

 

[Avalor]

The reason the Ruby Princess was allowed to dock is because some of the the assistant Defence Ministers Alex Hawkes family were on board and his wife, whose parents were on the ship works in a senior role for Home Affairs under Dutton.

Well that stinks. High ups using their position to the detriment of society - who would have believed it. Heads have to roll for that fiasco.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Well that stinks. High ups using their position to the detriment of society - who would have believed it. Heads have to roll for that fiasco.

The federal government announced a ban on normal cruise ship arrival and disembarkation from foreign ports on the 15th, yet the Ruby Princess was one of 4 ships granted an exemption.

Despite the department of Home Affairs overseeing this process and being responsible for borders, immigration and helping coordinate biosecurity, officers present allowed the arrivals to leave the ship, despite NSW health trying to resolve concerns about infections on the ship. Now both sides, the NSW government and the Federal government have done a degree of finger pointing, but the fact remains an absurd situation was allowed to unfold and given the degree of federal intervention preceding the fiasco, over plane and cruise ship arrivals, the whole thing stinks.

 

[Coasters7]

So.. just called the hotline for info regarding travelling in the state and living arrangements.. and apparently your immediate family is included in the 1 “visitor” per house if it’s not your primary residence.. ie in a family of 5, only 2 are allowed in the same house (1 person + a “visitor”) if it’s not the address that they all primarily live at. Which is pretty self explanatory in itself if you’re in the metro area.. but..

My family and I live out of Perth (primary residence for all of us) but have 2 farming properties 1.5 and 5 hours drive from Perth, that both have living properties on them, for obvious reasons. But under these restrictions, as the hotline bloke explained, only 2 of us are allowed to reside in either of those two places at the same time, which is very impractical when you’re trying to run a farming business out of multiple areas that far apart.

Effectively means half the family has to stay in Perth and can only make day trips to either of the two properties, which is pretty ridiculous. It’s not like we’re pulling up stumps to a holiday house to wait it out, this is a normal way of doing things for us during the farming season.

 

[Rowan18]

So.. just called the hotline for info regarding travelling in the state and living arrangements.. and apparently your immediate family is included in the 1 “visitor” per house if it’s not your primary residence.. ie in a family of 5, only 2 are allowed in the same house (1 person + a “visitor”) if it’s not the address that they all primarily live at. Which is pretty self explanatory in itself if you’re in the metro area.. but..

My family and I live out of Perth (primary residence for all of us) but have 2 farming properties 1.5 and 5 hours drive from Perth, that both have living properties on them, for obvious reasons. But under these restrictions, as the hotline bloke explained, only 2 of us are allowed to reside in either of those two places at the same time, which is very impractical when you’re trying to run a farming business out of multiple areas that far apart.

Effectively means half the family has to stay in Perth and can only make day trips to either of the two properties, which is pretty ridiculous. It’s not like we’re pulling up stumps to a holiday house to wait it out, this is a normal way of doing things for us during the farming season.

I'm assuming these properties are on large private landholdings? If so, do what you want, cops cant get in without a warrant and you will see them coming from literally kms away

 

[ChampRevesby]

We are now working with CSIRO and providing help with AI classification techniques to help with their research. I'll be flat out for a while. All I have to say that there is a lot of VERY smart and competent people that are working on the COVID 19 research/response in Aus.

 

[Monocle]

We are now working with CSIRO and providing help with AI classification techniques to help with their research. I'll be flat out for a while. All I have to say that there is a lot of VERY smart and competent people that are working on the COVID 19 research/response in Aus.

Amen to that .

Thank you if you are in the research program.

Hero's come in all shapes, sizes and forms.

Thank you.

 

[ChampRevesby]

Amen to that .

Thank you if you are in the research program.

Hero's come in all shapes, sizes and forms.

Thank you.

I'm tangentially related, our AI guys are all world class dudes. Just letting people know that we have some of the finest researches in the world when it comes to this stuff. The response behind the scenes in regards to understanding this thing and finding a vaccine has been something you'd expect from a well drilled Army. Im super impressed. Aussies rock.

 

[ashley12]

% lines are still heading in the right direction
View attachment 851914

I want to have Brian Taylor commentate a gif of these charts with the Paddy Ryder "thats the biggest bender I have ever seen" imposed over the top"

This is an interesting article that suggests lockdown essentially continues in some form until there is a vaccine. It points out that even when the infections are nearly down to zero, there is a chance they can start up again. It starts to raise the question around what is the point of all this? We cant stay locked up beyond 6 months or the economy will be pretty much cooked. Maybe countries like USA will come out better from this in the medium term, once most of their population have immunity.

Data reveals why our isolation can't just end when we've flattened the curve

Data suggests Australia's strict physical-distancing measures are beginning to work — but the risks are huge if we relax too quickly.

mobile.abc.net.au

What I don't like about this modelling is that they assume social distancing measures are binary, either being on or off like a light switch. It isn't black and white, there are many shades of grey in between.

In reality, once active cases flatline there is no reason why social distancing measures can't be partially relaxed compared to what they are now. Coasters7 situation is a good early example of that, as is invited a couple mates over for a BBQ. Particularly while state borders and national borders remain closed.

I have been on the COVID thing for a while (put up a doomsday post on Facebook March 6th when we had 68 cases (now ~5.4k) and the world outside China had 20k (now 950k). Yet for some reason I am strangely confident about how things will shake out.

For me personally, having a blast relatively speaking. I play poker quite seriously and online poker in semi-legal apps has been the best it has been in years, and I get to listen to a bunch of old 90s and 00s albums I haven't heard in years while playing cards. For my friends and family, most have been sorted out fairly well by the State and Fed Governments through support relatively to other nations around the world (and far further than I thought the Lib Fed Govt would actually go, which is a credit to them). For WA as a whole, if they seal off the borders and keep the 14 day quarantine for entries, its plausible that we actually get in a position to host things like crowdless AFL games and sports like tennis/golf by July (assuming all entrants come over here, do their two weeks quarantine, and then stay for a duration). And Australia is going to be in a prime position to trade with Asia relative to Europe and the USA.

Obviously a worldwide pandemic isn't exactly sunshine and rainbows, and I wish that corona was just a beer, but given the number of cases and deaths around the world, I feel somewhat content about how things have been handled at all levels for those who are close to me.

Imagine the next three months are a hairpin corner in motor racing. We have put the breaks on and look like we are taking the corner pretty well. I think Europe is going to to overshoot the apex and lose time coming back around, while the United States might be smashing into the barriers 200m behind the corner at 200mph. In all honesty, I think the odds that an American State/s try to secede/are ejected from the union are very non-zero over the coming two years as the States who handle the issue well try and put up borders to keep the "not handling it very well" states out. Id bet it if someone gave me 20/1, and would do the same for the EU at 10/1

 

[Biggie]

NT first community transmission

Numbers from overnight

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

 

[Biggie]

NSW & QLD updates

 

[Biggie]

 

[Seadog]

Thanks for doing this Biggie, I've been lurking around various websites and forums (don't do twitter) to do with coronavirus and you get the Aus numbers out as quick as any, in fact you are pretty much my go to for the latest stats.
Appreciate it.

 

[Dylan82]

Glad to see there are appropriate eggs-emptions

Meanwhile in Qld, a rushed copy gets put out an hour later...




Shameless.

 

[Biggie]

Thanks for doing this Biggie, I've been lurking around various websites and forums (don't do twitter) to do with coronavirus and you get the Aus numbers out as quick as any, in fact you are pretty much my go to for the latest stats.
Appreciate it.

All good, Jes who runs that account on twitter is all over it - I am just relaying her hard work to my online community

 

[Avalor]

Meanwhile in Qld, a rushed copy gets put out an hour later...




Shameless.

Shameless copycats.

 

[Luuuc]

Some cool data here. Google using mobile phone location metadata to track how people's behaviour has changed over the past several weeks. Broken down by country and by state, and split into categories.

COVID-19 Community Mobility Report

See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19

www.google.com

 

[Doashuey]

So you are saying a minister (Hawkes) directly interfered and ordered that a ship be allowed to dock just so his family could get off. I call b***s***.

Recommend you take the aluminium foil off your windows, take your tin hat off and go and join a conspiracy site.

Note - The moon landings did happen, the world is not flat, 9-11 was not a US Government plot to start a war and AIDS did not start in a CIA lab. Trump may well be an alien but I can assure you Elvis is not working at HJ's.

Anyone who thinks this government is beyond corruption and influencing decisions based on personal situations is far more likely to align with flat earthers than those who smell a dirty big rat in this case. Particularly given the department reaponsible...*Cough* Aupairs

 

[Biggie]

Pink has the Rona

Look forward to her top 10 smash about the Rona in 2021 ......

 

[Forward Press]

Pink has the Rona

Look forward to her top 10 smash about the Rona in 2021 ......

Her message on her social media account is pretty good too, questioning the lack of widespread testing, understanding she is privileged to have easy access to it, and of course urging everyone to just stay at home because it can make everyone sick, even young people, and of course kills too. Might get some of the younger folk to take it more seriously.