Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

www.bigfooty.com

Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Which is why we have much less cases per capita than them...

Got nothing to do with it, since football has started back up in Europe the cases have continued to decline.

 

[Senor M]

Additionally, many cases were blamed on "family gatherings/BBQ's". I wonder how many of the BLM went to family BBQ's after the protests and their cases were blamed on the being with their family rather than 10,000 other idiots earlier in the day.

.... yes, you’re not making any assumptions at all about where the Victorian COVID cases are coming from....

 

[Thrawn]

I couldn't have a BBQ with several of my mates due to fears of the virus spreading, yet a protest involving 10k people is an acceptable risk?

That's not logical by any standard.

Sure, one could make the argument that a BBQ with your mates isn't all that important compared to putting the light on injustices against minorities - but it's still a big risk in the middle of the pandemic. And said light has been shone brightly because our news cycle has shown the terrible things in the US practically 24/7 anyway. Why couldn't these protesters wait a couple of months? Because the issue would've died down, it wouldn't be as much of an impact? Rubbish. A 10k protest makes people's heads turn... it would make no difference awareness-wise were it done last month as opposed to a couple months later.

They report three people from the protesters have spread it - that's just confirmed, probably way more and all it takes is one person being stupid about it anyway. What's the likelihood that some teenager with the sniffles refused to isolate themselves because they wanted to march for a cause they're passionate about? Very likely. And there'd be many who either had a mild issue or were asymptomatic. And please don't tell me "oh but you have no proof it came from the BLM protests" - it's called mathematics. If you can't have a party with a dozen or so people because there's a risk, then thousands of people in front of the state library is an even bigger one. You can't just have one and not the other - it's illogical and hypocritical. So yes, I'm going to peg this partially on the protesters.

 

[Senor M]

Four cases that we know of. The fact of the matter is most cases are going to be unaccounted for.

Either way it's dumb having that many people in such a relatively small area in the middle of a pandemic. It just increases the risk of the virus spreading significantly.

How many people in a relatively small area is safe then??

1,000 students & teachers at a school who would have significantly closer contact across a 6 hour school day? Is that safe?


I’m not saying the protest was safe—- just saying the frustration towards the spike in cases is being directed in the wrong way if the focus is on the BLM protest rather than the premature opening of schools (where over a dozen cases have been found in the past 3 weeks) & large family gatherings compared to a protest where 4 people in attendance may’ve had the virus at the time of their attendance.

 

[Thrawn]

.... yes, you’re not making any assumptions at all about where the Victorian COVID cases are coming from....

What do you think the government are doing mate?

You can't reliably trace every source of the virus - firstly there's no system for that, we're not a totalitarian state. Second, most people aren't using that tracing app (that has found to be flawed in its tracing). I'll tell you this though - you're far more likely to spread a virus in the middle of a pandemic when you have thousands of people crammed together holding placards and shouting slogans, than you do going to a family BBQ. It's just simple mathematics and common sense.

How many people in a relatively small area is safe then??

1,000 students & teachers at a school who would have significantly closer contact across a 6 hour school day? Is that safe?


I’m not saying the protest was safe—- just saying the frustration towards the spike in cases is being directed in the wrong way if the focus is on the BLM protest rather than the premature opening of schools (where over a dozen cases have been found in the past 3 weeks) & large family gatherings compared to a protest where 4 people in attendance may’ve had the virus at the time of their attendance.

The smaller the better.

What makes you think those schools would have closer contact? Ever been in a classroom? Not hard to segregate groups with a supervising teacher. Yes, things opening up early are partially to blame, but this is 10,000 people bunched together doing their own thing - not a classroom of 20-30 that can be relatively controlled. This is something to talk to a teacher about with what strategies they have used to minimise risk.

 

[Crankitup]

.... yes, you’re not making any assumptions at all about where the Victorian COVID cases are coming from....

No. Just wondering. You OTOH are assuming the protests were perfectly safe.

 

[Senor M]

What do you think the government are doing mate?

You can't reliably trace every source of the virus - firstly there's no system for that, we're not a totalitarian state. Second, most people aren't using that tracing app (that has found to be flawed in its tracing). I'll tell you this though - you're far more likely to spread a virus in the middle of a pandemic when you have thousands of people crammed together holding placards and shouting slogans, than you do going to a family BBQ. It's just simple mathematics and common sense.

You do realise that Victoria is actively attempting to trace every known COVID case back to a cluster.

I can guarantee that everyone that’s tested positive since the start of Feb will have been asked if they attended or know if any of their close contacts attended the BLM protest. The Victorian CHO officer would happily reveal any additional links because it would support his stance for the rally to not occur back at the start of June.

From the data that’s been analysed by the Victorian CHO there’s been more cases of transmission at family BBQ’s (even a single BBQ in some cases) than the 4 reported protest cases.

You’re getting angry about 4 cases out of 400 in the past month & it’s coming off as politically biased rather than looking at the data.

 

[Senor M]

No. Just wondering. You OTOH are assuming the protests were perfectly safe.

I’m not saying the protests were perfectly safe—- just saying that there’s been more significant failures by the Victorian response to this crisis than the BLM protest. There should be outrage at the premature reopening of schools, of allowing such large home gatherings & the incompetence of security guards rather than focusing it on a protest.

 

[Crankitup]

You do realise that Victoria is actively attempting to trace every known COVID case back to a cluster.

I can guarantee that everyone that’s tested positive since the start of Feb will have been asked if they attended or know if any of their close contacts attended the BLM protest. The Victorian CHO officer would happily reveal any additional links because it would support his stance for the rally to not occur back at the start of June.

From the data that’s been analysed by the Victorian CHO there’s been more cases of transmission at family BBQ’s (even a single BBQ in some cases) than the 4 reported protest cases.

You’re getting angry about 4 cases out of 400 in the past month & it’s coming off as politically biased rather than looking at the data.

5.

 

[Senor M]

5.

Being a tad pedantic focusing on 1 case out of 400 in the past month, aren’t we?

 

[offtherails9]

Is it an overreaction? How many in hospital?

 

[Crankitup]

Being a tad pedantic focusing on 1 case out of 400 in the past month, aren’t we?

Not being pedantic just endeavouring to help people who are trying to underplay it's importance, to be more accurate.

One case stared the whole thing off back in November in Wuhan and has led to all the other 10.3 million cases, so one case can make a shitload of difference.

 

[Senor M]

Not being pedantic just endeavouring to help people who are trying to underplay it's importance, to be more accurate.

One case stared the whole thing off back in November in Wuhan and has led to all the other 10.3 million cases.

For accuracy’s sake then—- care to share sources for all 5 cases?

 

[Crankitup]

For accuracy’s sake then—- care to share sources for all 5 cases?

Sure. I first saw it mentioned 8 days ago and that's why I posted this - #32.

Yesterday I posted a link in this post #55.

 

[Pessimistic]

You'd have to be an idiot to ignore the potential of 10k people marching together to spread this virus like a wildfire. Just remember, that the breakout in Italy was as severe as it was because it was traced to a football match. Other states had no where near those number of protesters, your chance to spread a virus is exponentially higher when you add thousands more people shuffled together in city streets and public squares.

The protesters are bunch of selfish idiots. Middle of a pandemic and they decide it's a good idea to chant "black lives matter" when the issue is predominantly in another country. Government should've said no. The health and safety of our citizens trump pointing out human rights violations by police forces in the US (no pun intended).

much as you’d like to link all the things you don’t like and collectively label them, you are totally incorrect in fact. So let’s say you could have been right. You then spark violent clashes with police? That would be more risky

 

[Thrawn]

You do realise that Victoria is actively attempting to trace every known COVID case back to a cluster.

I can guarantee that everyone that’s tested positive since the start of Feb will have been asked if they attended or know if any of their close contacts attended the BLM protest. The Victorian CHO officer would happily reveal any additional links because it would support his stance for the rally to not occur back at the start of June.

From the data that’s been analysed by the Victorian CHO there’s been more cases of transmission at family BBQ’s (even a single BBQ in some cases) than the 4 reported protest cases.

You’re getting angry about 4 cases out of 400 in the past month & it’s coming off as politically biased rather than looking at the data.

Attempting being the key word here. We don't have a system in place to trace everything.

How many members of those family had other family members or friends attend these protests? They're not really going to reveal that number for the same reason they don't reveal the number of people they know who have had close contact with people coming from overseas. Then there are people who are going to lie through omission. Hell, they don't even need to mention the protests if they think all the people they know who attended were healthy.

The problem here is that you keep on blurting out "4 cases out of 400" when the majority of people are asymptomatic and never been tested in the first place. That's why it's important to treat this thing as if you have the virus yourself. Obviously the protesters didn't get that memo. It's a numbers game in the end - the more people congregate in a public space, the far more likely they are to spread this virus. Politics has nothing to do with it, it's simple math.

 

[Pessimistic]

I couldn't have a BBQ with several of my mates due to fears of the virus spreading, yet a protest involving 10k people is an acceptable risk?

That's not logical by any standard.

Sure, one could make the argument that a BBQ with your mates isn't all that important compared to putting the light on injustices against minorities - but it's still a big risk in the middle of the pandemic. And said light has been shone brightly because our news cycle has shown the terrible things in the US practically 24/7 anyway. Why couldn't these protesters wait a couple of months? Because the issue would've died down, it wouldn't be as much of an impact? Rubbish. A 10k protest makes people's heads turn... it would make no difference awareness-wise were it done last month as opposed to a couple months later.

They report three people from the protesters have spread it - that's just confirmed, probably way more and all it takes is one person being stupid about it anyway. What's the likelihood that some teenager with the sniffles refused to isolate themselves because they wanted to march for a cause they're passionate about? Very likely. And there'd be many who either had a mild issue or were asymptomatic. And please don't tell me "oh but you have no proof it came from the BLM protests" - it's called mathematics. If you can't have a party with a dozen or so people because there's a risk, then thousands of people in front of the state library is an even bigger one. You can't just have one and not the other - it's illogical and hypocritical. So yes, I'm going to peg this partially on the protesters.

1 the timing is all wrong as has been pointed out
2. We are told teenagers don’t transmit it, but you specifically blamed a teenager
3 originally you said barbecue. Which implies outside. There is a much lower risk than an inside party
I guess you will soon be blaming an official cover up like seems to happen when crime figures don’t seem to fit prejudices (and I think this word is very apt here)

Maybe the situation is people are meeting more inside in cooler weather

 

[Thrawn]

much as you’d like to link all the things you don’t like and collectively label them, you are totally incorrect in fact. So let’s say you could have been right. You then spark violent clashes with police? That would be more risky

Protesting in the middle of a pandemic where we're not even the country of origin is sheer stupidity. What is the point of restrictive laws on gathering if 10k people are allowed in the same area? It's sheer hypocrisy. That's not incorrect, that's a statement of fact. A virus doesn't care about your feelings, your political affliction and your thoughts on human rights; that's what it boils down to in the end. There's a time and place for protests, now's not really a good time. But sure, let's ignore rationality and logic.

 

[Thrawn]

3 originally you said barbecue. Which implies outside. There is a much lower risk than an inside party
I guess you will soon be blaming an official cover up like seems to happen when crime figures don’t seem to fit prejudices (and I think this word is very apt here)

Maybe the situation is people are meeting more inside in cooler weather

You do realise people bring the food inside a lot of the time, right? If it's a home BBQ, whether it's together on the patio or at the dining table inside - you're still in close contact with external people.

What's prejudice got to do with this? Cover-ups? It's simple logic. You're far more likely to catch something in the middle of a pandemic when you have hundreds of people around you, rather than tens. That's not debatable. Don't try to make this some kind of political topic - as I said, the virus doesn't give a * what side you lean on.

 

[Senor M]

Sure. I first saw it mentioned 8 days ago and that's why I posted this - #32.

Yesterday I posted a link in this post #55.

The source from your first post is you...

The source from your second post says 3 protestors with a connection to two staff members at H&M Northland (which have since been reclassified as associated with a family cluster & not connection to the protest).

Just pointing it out for accuracy as don’t want people to overestimate the numbers associated with one cluster.

 

[Senor M]

The problem here is that you keep on blurting out "4 cases out of 400" when the majority of people are asymptomatic and never been tested in the first place. That's why it's important to treat this thing as if you have the virus yourself. Obviously the protesters didn't get that memo. It's a numbers game in the end - the more people congregate in a public space, the far more likely they are to spread this virus. Politics has nothing to do with it, it's simple math.

So by using your “simple math” theory— shouldn’t schools have never re-opened considering that’s a thousand people in one place for longer than a protest 5 times a week (and had more confirmed cases in the past month)??

Or the closure of Chadstone that saw 70k people go through it only the weekend after the protest?

Your decision to focus on ONE thing that people did rather than condemn all public gatherings demonstrates that you have a political bias, even if it is unconscious.

 

[Crankitup]

The source from your first post is you...

The source from your second post says 3 protestors with a connection to two staff members at H&M Northland (which have since been reclassified as associated with a family cluster & not connection to the protest).

Just pointing it out for accuracy as don’t want people to overestimate the numbers associated with one cluster.

No. The source says this ...

Sky News can reveal that the number of COVID-19 cases linked to the Melbourne’s Black Lives matter protests a fortnight ago have risen to five.

If you now have some separate source that's says they have since reclassified two cases that attended BLM because they found out they also attended BBQ's and would thus prefer to pin the blame on that, then that is a timely justification for what I posted at #4,975.

 

[Pessimistic]

You do realise people bring the food inside a lot of the time, right? If it's a home BBQ, whether it's together on the patio or at the dining table inside - you're still in close contact with external people.

What's prejudice got to do with this? Cover-ups? It's simple logic. You're far more likely to catch something in the middle of a pandemic when you have hundreds of people around you, rather than tens. That's not debatable. Don't try to make this some kind of political topic - as I said, the virus doesn't give a fu** what side you lean on.

‘what about my points you didn’t respond to? The timing.

anyway let’s not dance round it here. They cultural minority with most of the infection right now is not black, and is not known for running out to protest for black rights

 

[Thrawn]

So by using your “simple math” theory— shouldn’t schools have never re-opened considering that’s a thousand people in one place for longer than a protest 5 times a week (and had more confirmed cases in the past month)??

Or the closure of Chadstone that saw 70k people go through it only the weekend after the protest?

Your decision to focus on ONE thing that people did rather than condemn all public gatherings demonstrates that you have a political bias, even if it is unconscious.

In my opinion, we opened stuff far too early... you can use the fallacy of relative privation all you like though. That still doesn't change the fact that organising and going to a protest with thousands of people at the one given time in the middle of a pandemic is a stupid idea. Yes, opening Chadstone early was also a dumb idea... never said it was a good idea.

Saying that isn't "political bias", it's called being pragmatic and rational. You're only applying a strawman by inserting a political theme where it doesn't apply and is completely irrelevant.

 

[Senor M]

No. The source says this ...



If you now have some separate source that's says they have since reclassified two cases that attended BLM because they found out they also attended BBQ's and would thus prefer to pin the blame on that, then that is a timely justification for what I posted at #4,975.

Thanks for getting me to double check the data—- ABC Fact Check now days that it’s only 3 direct contacts. Do we trust the ABC or Sky News??

CoronaCheck: Is Victoria's COVID-19 increase linked to the Black Lives Matter protests?

With COVID-19 cases experiencing a recent surge in Victoria, some Liberal politicians in the state have sought to link the recent Black Lives Matters protests with the increased incidence of cases. What are the facts?

www.abc.net.au