Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 3

[Gralin]

This is part Three.

Part One can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

This is part 1 of this thread. Continued in Part 2: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed-part-2.1237935/

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Part Two can be found here -

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

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Part 4 can be found here:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - Stage 4 Restrictions in Place in Vic - Part 4

This is part Four. Part One can be found here - https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/coronavirus-the-afl-season-postponed.1236651/unread Part Two can be found here -...

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Australian stats page:

Australian Coronavirus Stats

Latest COVID-19 stats from Australia.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Thrawn]

It appears that you’ve convinced yourself that it’s all the fault of the BLM protest, regardless of any evidence put in front of you.

It’s a shame that some people just listen to the conservative agenda by some within the media rather than actually focusing on what the data is actually suggesting.

I'm sorry?

I already said posts ago that we opened up too early, and that I peg some of this on the protests. Not all.

You're strawmanning again.

I don't give a flying **** about the politics of it, I only care about the science of the virus and how it spreads. This is an apolitical stance here. As for the data, again, you should be well aware that the data isn't complete. If you have a million people test positive, then it's likely you have ten million potentially infected people. Possibly more. The data doesn't take into account the amount of people who have not been tested, and/or are asymptomatic. How could it? Unless you can test every individual (which is beyond our means), you cannot really get a full and complete picture.

As for evidence, you provided no citations. No links to any studies. Zip. Nada. You're just accusing me of some sort of political bias, lol. **** politics mate, this ain't the time for it... and you're only playing that card because you can't seem to understand that the more people you have shoved together in the middle of a health crisis, the greater the potential to spread the virus. You don't need to have a phD to figure it out.

Stop projecting your political claptrap on me, it's tiresome. Right or left, wings of the same bird to me. I don't care what your political leaning is, I only care what this virus is capable of... which is the discussion we should be having rather injecting politics where it doesn't belong.

 

[Forward Press]

Protests were ill advised for sure - but the current outbreak in Melbourne isn't connected to that, so I don't know why we're still on that topic.

 

[Thrawn]

and the ethnicity of the current spikes. More likely to be employed as security guards or in hospitality than attending left wing protests. You are the only one still actually technically linking them. Most are blaming the vibe or something.

but the crowds. Reminds me of the enhanced security at the footy because of suicide bomb threats. I reckon a bomber woulddo more damage in the mass queues outside then they could do inside

What part of "there are likely ten times more people infected than the official number, the more people who crowd together, the higher chance of viral transmission" don't you seem to understand? It's not a vibe. This is how a virus efficiently spreads. If you think such a large gathering has zero effect (which is already not even true), then how naive are you?

 

[Crankitup]

I’m just suggesting that if two news outlets provide different figures I’d rely on the ABC rather than Sky News who can’t even fact check something as simple as South Sudanese people not celebrating a religious celebration that one of their presenters was accusing of them celebrating.

Sky's Andrew Clennell is who I've been following on the Victorian spike, not Peta.

 

[Senor M]

I'm sorry?

I already said posts ago that we opened up too early, and that I peg some of this on the protests. Not all.

You're strawmanning again.

I don't give a flying fu** about the politics of it, I only care about the science of the virus and how it spreads. This is an apolitical stance here. As for the data, again, you should be well aware that the data isn't complete. If you have a million people test positive, then it's likely you have ten million potentially infected people. Possibly more. The data doesn't take into account the amount of people who have not been tested, and/or are asymptomatic. How could it? Unless you can test every individual (which is beyond our means), you cannot really get a full and complete picture.

As for evidence, you provided no citations. No links to any studies. Zip. Nada. You're just accusing me of some sort of political bias, lol. fu** politics mate, this ain't the time for it... and you're only playing that card because you can't seem to understand that the more people you have shoved together in the middle of a health crisis, the greater the potential to spread the virus. You don't need to have a phD to figure it out.

Stop projecting your political claptrap on me, it's tiresome. Right or left, wings of the same bird to me. I don't care what your political leaning is, I only care what this virus is capable of... which is the discussion we should be having rather injecting politics where it doesn't belong.

I'll provide this article again...

Protester and toddler at childcare centre among eight new coronavirus infections in Victoria

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says the man in his 30s was unlikely to have acquired the virus at the Black Lives Matter demonstration, but was potentially infectious on Saturday.

www.abc.net.au

3 cases.

The fact that you continue to focus mostly on the impact of the BLM protest on the COVID upswing and ignore the other points demonstrates that you're blaming the BLM issue (thus becoming political). If only you spent as much energy into posting about how the schools re-opened prematurely, that the security guards were incompetent & shopping centres were overcrowded as you have into posting about a protest.

What part of "there are likely ten times more people infected than the official number, the more people who crowd together, the higher chance of viral transmission" don't you seem to understand? It's not a vibe. This is how a virus efficiently spreads. If you think such a large gathering has zero effect (which is already not even true), then how naive are you?

You asked for evidence & citation from me--- prepared to do the same to back this up?

 

[Senor M]

I’m just suggesting that if two news outlets provide different figures I’d rely on the ABC rather than Sky News who can’t even fact check something as simple as South Sudanese people not celebrating a religious celebration that one of their presenters was accusing of them celebrating.

Sky's Andrew Clennell is who I've been following on the Victorian spike, not Peta.

I wasn't suggesting that Peta Credlin was your source--- more suggesting that Sky News as an news outlet isn't particularly reliable based off their current fact checking protocols based off Credlin's actions.

If the data between Sky News & ABC news differs, I know I'd choose the ABC information any day of the week.

 

[Thrawn]

I'll provide this article again...

Protester and toddler at childcare centre among eight new coronavirus infections in Victoria

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says the man in his 30s was unlikely to have acquired the virus at the Black Lives Matter demonstration, but was potentially infectious on Saturday.

www.abc.net.au

3 cases.

The fact that you continue to focus mostly on the impact of the BLM protest on the COVID upswing and ignore the other points demonstrates that you're blaming the BLM issue (thus becoming political). If only you spent as much energy into posting about how the schools re-opened prematurely, that the security guards were incompetent & shopping centres were overcrowded as you have into posting about a protest.



You asked for evidence & citation from me--- prepared to do the same to back this up?

Three cases that we know of (there could be many more we don't know about). From an ABC news article. Where's the research paper on this?

You're projecting again. That's just a classic strawman, trying to divert away from what I'm actually saying to make it political. I will say again: 10k in a packed area is more riskier than a school in spreading a virus. I already said that these other factors were to blame as well, so it's a moot point. What "energy" you may think I'm spending here is completely irrelevant. That's not the point.

And as for evidence on the cases likely being ten times higher:

German Covid-19 cases 'may be 10 times higher than official figures'

Researchers highlight risk of asymptomatic infection, as Europe begins easing lockdown

www.theguardian.com

Researchers from Bonn University said on Monday that their preliminary study, based on fieldwork in the town of Gangelt in Heinsberg municipality, which had one of Germany’s highest death tolls, showed the risk of infection by asymptomatic carriers.

The researchers concluded from a random sample of 919 people that about 15% of Gangelt’s population had been infected, with a fatality rate of 0.37%. Extrapolating nationwide, they said about 1.8 million people living in Germany may have contracted the virus, against 160,000 confirmed cases so far.

Found something a little more local:

Official COVID-19 figures underestimate spread by 'order of magnitude'

A senior epidemiologist says official government modelling underestimates the true spread of COVID-19 in Australia.

www.smh.com.au

There are a lot more people with COVID-19 than there are confirmed cases," said Douglas Isles, a member of the Actuaries Institute's COVID-19 working group. Actuaries are mathematicians and statisticians who often work in insurance, forecasting customer risks.

"The reported data is an order of magnitude less than the actual data."

To be quite frank, I don't need to cite something as obvious as the statement you bolded... there's always going to be a higher number of people with the virus than official records show. What, do you think the official figure is the be-all-end-all number? Well, no. It's not.

 

[bonddm]

Apologies to the media for pricking their hysteria bubble, but I haven’t seen them make much mention of the fact that that total hospitalisation numbers in Victoria have actually decreased since June 22.

 

[Ron The Bear]

It appears that you’ve convinced yourself that it’s all the fault of the BLM protest, regardless of any evidence put in front of you.

The data says there was an initial outbreak, followed by the Cedar Meats outbreak - both controlled - followed by this latest outbreak seven days after the protest.

I don't give a rat's arse what the government says, they're never going to admit their culpability/negligence. The explnanation is obvious.

 

[Senor M]

Three cases that we know of (there could be many more we don't know about). From an ABC news article. Where's the research paper on this?

You're projecting again. That's just a classic strawman, trying to divert away from what I'm actually saying to make it political. I will say again: 10k in a packed area is more riskier than a school in spreading a virus. I already said that these other factors were to blame as well, so it's a moot point. What "energy" you may think I'm spending here is completely irrelevant. That's not the point.

• 3 known cases attached to a BLM protest in 3 weeks.
• 10 schools & 5 childcare centres have been closed for deep cleaning since Friday.

But yes "The Schools Are Safe"

Demanding research papers to prove that a protest had minimal cases from 3 weeks ago is plain weird.

 

[Pessimistic]

What part of "there are likely ten times more people infected than the official number, the more people who crowd together, the higher chance of viral transmission" don't you seem to understand? It's not a vibe. This is how a virus efficiently spreads. If you think such a large gathering has zero effect (which is already not even true), then how naive are you?

you seem to be the only person running that line. Are you Margaret thatcher?

 

[Senor M]

The data says there was an initial outbreak, followed by the Cedar Meats outbreak - both controlled - followed by this latest outbreak seven days after the protest.

I don't give a rat's arse what the government says, they're never going to admit their culpability/negligence. The explnanation is obvious.

You know what else the latest outbreak aligns with?

• Two weeks after cafes, restaurants & pubs are allowed to have dine-in customers
• A week after all students (and teachers) return to schools, three weeks after Prep-2 & 11-12 students return to school.
• A week after the Queens Birthday Weekend when Victorian's were allowed to go on Holidays for the first time in months
• Family Gatherings were allowed to occur.

But let's blame ONE event that's had 3 confirmed cases rather than look at where the other approx. 400 cases came from?

 

[Pessimistic]

The data says there was an initial outbreak, followed by the Cedar Meats outbreak - both controlled - followed by this latest outbreak seven days after the protest.

I don't give a rat's arse what the government says, they're never going to admit their culpability/negligence. The explnanation is obvious.

ah it’s a cover up. Expected this sooner. We should be celebrating that theres some normal things we can get back to, not getting all bitter

 

[Les Malone]

Three cases that we know of (there could be many more we don't know about). From an ABC news article. Where's the research paper on this?

You're projecting again. That's just a classic strawman, trying to divert away from what I'm actually saying to make it political. I will say again: 10k in a packed area is more riskier than a school in spreading a virus. I already said that these other factors were to blame as well, so it's a moot point. What "energy" you may think I'm spending here is completely irrelevant. That's not the point.

And as for evidence on the cases likely being ten times higher:

German Covid-19 cases 'may be 10 times higher than official figures'

Researchers highlight risk of asymptomatic infection, as Europe begins easing lockdown

www.theguardian.com

Found something a little more local:

Official COVID-19 figures underestimate spread by 'order of magnitude'

A senior epidemiologist says official government modelling underestimates the true spread of COVID-19 in Australia.

www.smh.com.au

To be quite frank, I don't need to cite something as obvious as the statement you bolded... there's always going to be a higher number of people with the virus than official records show. What, do you think the official figure is the be-all-end-all number? Well, no. It's not.

CDC estimates 34,230,000 Amercians have had covid at the end of March either symptomatically or asymptomatically , at a fatality rate of 0.26%, would most likely be lower now.

 

[Thrawn]

• 3 known cases attached to a BLM protest in 3 weeks.
• 10 schools & 5 childcare centres have been closed for deep cleaning since Friday.

But yes "The Schools Are Safe"

Demanding research papers to prove that a protest had minimal cases from 3 weeks ago is plain weird.

I didn't say schools are safe, I said they're better than a protest in a relatively small area involving thousands of people.

Read the links provided. Would you like more from academia that shows the rate of infection is much higher than official tallies? You're in way over your head here.

The crux of it all is the unknown number of cases. So it stands to reason that the more people you jam in together, the higher the rate of transmission, given how prolific this virus can be (some estimates put the R0 value of 4). This isn't rocket science mate... well, actually it is science... so stop ignoring it please.

 

[Thrawn]

you seem to be the only person running that line. Are you Margaret thatcher?

Not just me mate. Might want to look at Dr John Campbell's videos for day to day updates:

Dr. John Campbell

Hello Everyone, My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when...

www.youtube.com

Or ask an epidemiologist. Or you can wallow in your own ignorance. Do what you will.

 

[Pessimistic]

Sky's Andrew Clennell is who I've been following on the Victorian spike, not Peta.

getting free movement among all other states except Victoria is a great thing, right. Don’t worry guys, we’ll catch up eventually

 

[Senor M]

I didn't say schools are safe, I said they're better than a protest in a relatively small area involving thousands of people.

Read the links provided. Would you like more from academia that shows the rate of infection is much higher than official tallies? You're in way over your head here.

The crux of it all is the unknown number of cases. So it stands to reason that the more people you jam in together, the higher the rate of transmission, given how prolific this virus can be (some estimates put the R0 value of 4). This isn't rocket science mate... well, actually it is science... so stop ignoring it please.

First line of The Guardian Article:

German Covid-19 cases 'may be 10 times higher than official figures'

Researchers highlight risk of asymptomatic infection, as Europe begins easing lockdown

www.theguardian.com

"More than 10 times as many people in Germany as thought may have been infected with coronavirus"

First line of the Sydney Morning Herald article:

Official COVID-19 figures underestimate spread by 'order of magnitude'

A senior epidemiologist says official government modelling underestimates the true spread of COVID-19 in Australia.

www.smh.com.au

"The true number of people infected with COVID-19 in Australia is likely to be much higher than the official government tally, experts say, with one estimate putting the figure as high as 30,000."


Because all Scientific conclusions use terms like "may" and "likely"

But keep trying to prove that your irrational hatred towards the protest isn't because you don't agree with the agenda of the protest rather than the 'risk' that is presented.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not just me mate. Might want to look at Dr John Campbell's videos for day to day updates:

Dr. John Campbell

Hello Everyone, My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when...

www.youtube.com

Or ask an epidemiologist. Or you can wallow in your own ignorance. Do what you will.

‘agreed it was ill advised to protest march. We didn’t really know the risk. But the outcome was that even with thousands in a relatively small area. The transmission simply didn’t happen. An actual case not a theory. The theory suggests it would be bad. It wasn’t in this case. This is how we gain knowledge and progress

everyone is saying that. People with no motivation to ‘cover up’

 

[Les Malone]

First line of The Guardian Article:

German Covid-19 cases 'may be 10 times higher than official figures'

Researchers highlight risk of asymptomatic infection, as Europe begins easing lockdown

www.theguardian.com

"More than 10 times as many people in Germany as thought may have been infected with coronavirus"

First line of the Sydney Morning Herald article:

Official COVID-19 figures underestimate spread by 'order of magnitude'

A senior epidemiologist says official government modelling underestimates the true spread of COVID-19 in Australia.

www.smh.com.au

"The true number of people infected with COVID-19 in Australia is likely to be much higher than the official government tally, experts say, with one estimate putting the figure as high as 30,000."


Because all Scientific conclusions use terms like "may" and "likely"

But keep trying to prove that your irrational hatred towards the protest isn't because you don't agree with the agenda of the protest rather than the 'risk' that is presented.

deluded beyond belief .....

if that is the case, then the virus may exist or perhaps it is likely to exist

the CDC tells us over 34,000,000 million Americans have had it by the end of March , that is the official line, is everyone lying ?.

 

[Senor M]

deluded beyond belief .....

if that is the case, then the virus may exist or perhaps it is likely to exist

the CDC tells us over 34,000,000 million Americans have had it by the end of March , that is the official line, is everyone lying ?.

...and that relates to the current conversation we are having about the infection rate from the BLM Protest in Melbourne how?

 

[Tiger Toffee]

• 3 known cases attached to a BLM protest in 3 weeks.
• 10 schools & 5 childcare centres have been closed for deep cleaning since Friday.

But yes "The Schools Are Safe"

Demanding research papers to prove that a protest had minimal cases from 3 weeks ago is plain weird.

All schools have been closed since Friday.

 

[Senor M]

All schools have been closed since Friday.

I'm aware of that as it's Victorian School Holidays---doesn't change the fact that 10 schools have been deep cleaned due to connections with cases in the past 3 days. The School holidays have come at a fortunate time for Victoria as there have been more cases connected to schools (with staff & students being at school last week) than at any stage in the pandemic so far.

 

[Ron The Bear]

You know what else the latest outbreak aligns with?

• Two weeks after cafes, restaurants & pubs are allowed to have dine-in customers
• A week after all students (and teachers) return to schools, three weeks after Prep-2 & 11-12 students return to school.
• A week after the Queens Birthday Weekend when Victorian's were allowed to go on Holidays for the first time in months
• Family Gatherings were allowed to occur.

But let's blame ONE event that's had 3 confirmed cases rather than look at where the other approx. 400 cases came from?

Restrictions were eased on the 26th May, so it's more like three weeks later that it suddenly went up in flames. The protest was the matchstick.

 

[Les Malone]

...and that relates to the current conversation we are having about the infection rate from the BLM Protest in Melbourne how?

it is extremely clear by now except for the very deluded that covid 19 is very widespread and much less dangerous than we originally thought but you keep denying science.