Putting season 2020 in perspective

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Econopower

Team Captain
Aug 15, 2020
367
955
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
As much as I understand the urge to burn Alberton down after a performance like Friday’s, I really think that some perspective is warranted.

Though I’m posting for the first time I’ve been lurking on these boards for years and I can’t think of a single poster who thought we would be on top of the table at this point of the year. Indeed, a majority thought us to be in a partial rebuild amid which sneaking into the finals would have been considered a good result.

If one is being very honest about the quality of our list, it is obvious there are significant holes. Our two best players of the last decade - Boak and Gray are past the peak of their careers. Our best utility of the period will be lucky to play more than a dozen more games in his career. Three of our better younger players - Rozee, Duursma and Burton - have been hampered by injuries. We have a shortage of players in the age bracket when career peaks are most likely. And our back line is partially relying on a player who appeared to be a candidate for delisting this time last year.

Then there are the wider circumstances of COVID-19. Irregular travel patterns. Compressed fixtures. Players from interstate not being able to see their families. Under such stress it is difficult to expect every performance to be of even quality.

In fact when one lifts their gaze to look at the performance of other clubs, similar patterns of variability are common, even amongst those towards the top. In just the last month Geelong, Richmond, and Brisbane have all had bad defeats.

Note that I’m not claiming that Hinckley is an especially good coach. I genuinely think that the list should have achieved much more in the 2014-17 period. And the collapse from 11-4 was terrible.

But equally the criticism borders on the hysterical at times and there is definitely a tendency on this board to interpret events through the prism of their own prejudices. Bad defeats are due to coaching. Great wins are attributable to the assistant coaches or the players overcoming bad coaching.

The truth is somewhere in the middle and it isn’t clear there is an obviously better candidate on the market.

Since I left Adelaide 20 years ago and Australia 12 years ago, I’ve often pondered whether Port have underachieved or not in the AFL. But in my more rational moods I wonder whether our history in the SANFL makes that particularly hard to judge.

I was 8 when we lost the GF to Norwood and remember crying as the reality set in. But then I was lucky enough to grow up in a family where three generations had lived and died in the Semaphore area and who could regale me with tales of our past achievements. And then I was even more fortunate to come of age in the late 80s and early 90s when we dominated the competition once again, setting the platform for our accession to the AFL.

But the downside of that history is that we expect to win, or are perhaps more disappointed than most when we don’t, even though we have few of the advantages we had in our SANFL days. It would be a bit like Celtic joining the English Premier League and then expecting to dominate like it was the SPL.

So by all means be upset when we don’t turn up to play. Hold our coaches and administrators to account for their decisions. Push for change when it is clear that is needed and there is a clearly better and practical alternative.

But also put things into perspective because in the grander scheme of our AFL history since 97 and what is happening in the world, this has been a pretty good year so far. I certainly know it has given me a lot of enjoyment in a year that has had a shortage of happy moments.
 
That was a good first up post.
Welcome econopower!

There is certainly a lot of frustration/disappointment on the board and I am certainly one of them.

You touched on the reason why when you referred to 2014-2019. We should have played finals in most of those years.
The biggest flaw during that period was our skill level especially by foot. It really hadn’t improved till this year.
 

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Well written post and a lot I agree with.

The bit I dont agree with is this idea that there isnt other coaches out there, I dont get why this gets said. For me Ken has done enough to get his crack this year and next, and if he manages to bag at least 1 flag then conversations can be had on whether he gets another year or two on the back of that, which Id also be fine with.

Caracella is probably the most promising up and coming coach since Dew, and there are a bunch in this conversation, Mitchell in particular stands out to me.

Internally we could give Schoey or Monty a crack at it, both should have served their apprenticeship by the end of 2021.

Or if we wanted to go experienced, Clarko is definitely gettable right now, as is the recently retired Lyon. Not a big Lyon fan, but his record is way better than Kens, having gone to 3 grand finals at least.

So for me its not about being a Ken hater, its about recognising there is an opportunity cost of not letting someone better have their shot, and there are plenty of options out there that we are denying that opportunity to.
 
As much as I understand the urge to burn Alberton down after a performance like Friday’s, I really think that some perspective is warranted.

Though I’m posting for the first time I’ve been lurking on these boards for years and I can’t think of a single poster who thought we would be on top of the table at this point of the year. Indeed, a majority thought us to be in a partial rebuild amid which sneaking into the finals would have been considered a good result.

If one is being very honest about the quality of our list, it is obvious there are significant holes. Our two best players of the last decade - Boak and Gray are past the peak of their careers. Our best utility of the period will be lucky to play more than a dozen more games in his career. Three of our better younger players - Rozee, Duursma and Burton - have been hampered by injuries. We have a shortage of players in the age bracket when career peaks are most likely. And our back line is partially relying on a player who appeared to be a candidate for delisting this time last year.

Then there are the wider circumstances of COVID-19. Irregular travel patterns. Compressed fixtures. Players from interstate not being able to see their families. Under such stress it is difficult to expect every performance to be of even quality.

In fact when one lifts their gaze to look at the performance of other clubs, similar patterns of variability are common, even amongst those towards the top. In just the last month Geelong, Richmond, and Brisbane have all had bad defeats.

Note that I’m not claiming that Hinckley is an especially good coach. I genuinely think that the list should have achieved much more in the 2014-17 period. And the collapse from 11-4 was terrible.

But equally the criticism borders on the hysterical at times and there is definitely a tendency on this board to interpret events through the prism of their own prejudices. Bad defeats are due to coaching. Great wins are attributable to the assistant coaches or the players overcoming bad coaching.

The truth is somewhere in the middle and it isn’t clear there is an obviously better candidate on the market.

Since I left Adelaide 20 years ago and Australia 12 years ago, I’ve often pondered whether Port have underachieved or not in the AFL. But in my more rational moods I wonder whether our history in the SANFL makes that particularly hard to judge.

I was 8 when we lost the GF to Norwood and remember crying as the reality set in. But then I was lucky enough to grow up in a family where three generations had lived and died in the Semaphore area and who could regale me with tales of our past achievements. And then I was even more fortunate to come of age in the late 80s and early 90s when we dominated the competition once again, setting the platform for our accession to the AFL.

But the downside of that history is that we expect to win, or are perhaps more disappointed than most when we don’t, even though we have few of the advantages we had in our SANFL days. It would be a bit like Celtic joining the English Premier League and then expecting to dominate like it was the SPL.

So by all means be upset when we don’t turn up to play. Hold our coaches and administrators to account for their decisions. Push for change when it is clear that is needed and there is a clearly better and practical alternative.

But also put things into perspective because in the grander scheme of our AFL history since 97 and what is happening in the world, this has been a pretty good year so far. I certainly know it has given me a lot of enjoyment in a year that has had a shortage of happy moments.
Excellent post>>
 
There is certainly a lot of frustration/disappointment on the board and I am certainly one of them.

You touched on the reason why when you referred to 2014-2019. We should have played finals in most of those years.

Frustration about the past I understand. And nervousness that history is set to repeat. But given that we are still top despite that loss, and now have a bunch of lowly ranked teams to come, we are still pretty well placed to finish top 2 no?

I would also argue that if we can agree that Port underperformed in many of those previous years we should also be able to recognise that we are over-performing this year.
 
I want to enjoy it more than I have but I don’t have the memory of a goldfish with dementia. As good as the Richmond performance was we all knew there was a Geelong performance just around the corner. This pattern has looped relentlessly during Hinkley’s tenure.

There are only six players left who pre-date Ken - Boak, Gray, Westhoff, Ebert, Hartlett and Jonas. All of them are over 30 apart from TJ who will turn 30 before next season. There ain’t much gas left in these tanks and soon there will be a team entirely of the coach’s making, probably for the first time since Sheedy’s Bombers, but with one key difference. Nothing to show for it.

We’ve changed every part of this beautiful old car of ours but keep crashing into things. Maybe it’s time to change the driver.
 
So for me its not about being a Ken hater, its about recognising there is an opportunity cost of not letting someone better have their shot, and there are plenty of options out there that we are denying that opportunity to.

Fair point. But I think there is a potential cognitive bias at play here. Hear me out.

After nearly 8 seasons Ken has revealed his abilities - for good or ill.

But we know much less about the true abilities of assistant coaches it makes it easier to project unproven abilities onto them.

Schofield might be better than Ken but he could also be worse. We don’t really know, yet it is pretty common on this board for posters to think he will be a better head coach than Ken. Why?

It is the same way we often get far more excited about draft picks than is warranted by the average performance of historical draftees in that position. We see potential and then extrapolate.

Comparisons with existing or previous head coaches is fairer in my opinion. But I’m not sure there is much evidence the better ones really want to come to Port.

And in Lyon’s case, is his tactical style really something the supporter base would be happy with?
 
Fair point. But I think there is a potential cognitive bias at play here. Hear me out.

After nearly 8 seasons Ken has revealed his abilities - for good or ill.

But we know much less about the true abilities of assistant coaches it makes it easier to project unproven abilities onto them.

Schofield might be better than Ken but he could also be worse. We don’t really know, yet it is pretty common on this board for posters to think he will be a better head coach than Ken. Why?

It is the same way we often get far more excited about draft picks than is warranted by the average performance of historical draftees in that position. We see potential and then extrapolate.

Comparisons with existing or previous head coaches is fairer in my opinion. But I’m not sure there is much evidence the better ones really want to come to Port.

And in Lyon’s case, is his tactical style really something the supporter base would be happy with?

Yep thats what I mean with regards to our options - experienced vs new.

Experienced we know what we are getting. Im not in any way promoting Lyon was just trying to be unbiased in my approach.

With the new guys, Caracella could be a bust, Schoey could be a bust, Mitchell could be a bust. But they arent being given an opportunity to show that one way or the other while Ken is there. Ken has had his crack, and at the end of next year if we still dont win a flag he would have been given more opportunities without delivering success than just about any other senior coach in the afl system. So Im not saying Caracella is a sure thing to be better, iust that he deserves the same go that Ken got.

I just totally disagree with the idea that the coaching pool is weak right now. Id say its incredibly strong and will likely be even stronger at the end of next year.

Also for the record it doesnt mean I want Ken to fail either, Ive enjoyed him this year and think he has had a much better 2020 than 2019. He still owes us a flag for the co captains disaster and Im fine for him to get his two more shots at it.
 
We’ve changed every part of this beautiful old car of ours but keep crashing into things. Maybe it’s time to change the driver.

Out of interest, what result for this year would be sufficient for you not to want to fire Ken?
 
Out of interest, what result for this year would be sufficient for you not to want to fire Ken?

It’s a moot point. Even if we don’t win another game we’ll probably still make finals so next year has been triggered. We don’t have the money to pay him out. He’ll be here irrespective of what happens now.

So Ken gets two shots by default, this year and next. We need to see progress otherwise it’s pointless signing him again for what would be his 10th-13th seasons.

What’s progress? Well he hasn’t finished Top 4 after the minor round, ever, so that’s a start. If he could achieve that both this year and next, and at least not get humiliated in the finals (prelims absolute minimum), then we could talk.

Anything less is just Bill Murray driving dot gif.
 

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There's no doubt this year has been a success. Hinkley has been able to get results this year where in years gone by we wouldve lost. This has always been one of his main failings. At the start of the year I think we all believed that top 4 was the mark of success and that it should earn him the extension.

However whilst this is a good sign, it is still being laced with the same trends we've seen for many years. Hinkleyball hasn't gone anywhere, it lurks under the surface and means we remain a side that is no where near contending, and flattered by our position.

Hinkley will get next year, and he should have to back up this year's results to get more. All the while we need to finally see a reversal of the same in game trends that continue to embarrass us and make us non competitive against the best sides.


To say there isn't another candidate out there though is garbage.
 
As much as I understand the urge to burn Alberton down after a performance like Friday’s, I really think that some perspective is warranted.

Though I’m posting for the first time I’ve been lurking on these boards for years and I can’t think of a single poster who thought we would be on top of the table at this point of the year. Indeed, a majority thought us to be in a partial rebuild amid which sneaking into the finals would have been considered a good result.

If one is being very honest about the quality of our list, it is obvious there are significant holes. Our two best players of the last decade - Boak and Gray are past the peak of their careers. Our best utility of the period will be lucky to play more than a dozen more games in his career. Three of our better younger players - Rozee, Duursma and Burton - have been hampered by injuries. We have a shortage of players in the age bracket when career peaks are most likely. And our back line is partially relying on a player who appeared to be a candidate for delisting this time last year.

Then there are the wider circumstances of COVID-19. Irregular travel patterns. Compressed fixtures. Players from interstate not being able to see their families. Under such stress it is difficult to expect every performance to be of even quality.

In fact when one lifts their gaze to look at the performance of other clubs, similar patterns of variability are common, even amongst those towards the top. In just the last month Geelong, Richmond, and Brisbane have all had bad defeats.

Note that I’m not claiming that Hinckley is an especially good coach. I genuinely think that the list should have achieved much more in the 2014-17 period. And the collapse from 11-4 was terrible.

But equally the criticism borders on the hysterical at times and there is definitely a tendency on this board to interpret events through the prism of their own prejudices. Bad defeats are due to coaching. Great wins are attributable to the assistant coaches or the players overcoming bad coaching.

The truth is somewhere in the middle and it isn’t clear there is an obviously better candidate on the market.

Since I left Adelaide 20 years ago and Australia 12 years ago, I’ve often pondered whether Port have underachieved or not in the AFL. But in my more rational moods I wonder whether our history in the SANFL makes that particularly hard to judge.

I was 8 when we lost the GF to Norwood and remember crying as the reality set in. But then I was lucky enough to grow up in a family where three generations had lived and died in the Semaphore area and who could regale me with tales of our past achievements. And then I was even more fortunate to come of age in the late 80s and early 90s when we dominated the competition once again, setting the platform for our accession to the AFL.

But the downside of that history is that we expect to win, or are perhaps more disappointed than most when we don’t, even though we have few of the advantages we had in our SANFL days. It would be a bit like Celtic joining the English Premier League and then expecting to dominate like it was the SPL.

So by all means be upset when we don’t turn up to play. Hold our coaches and administrators to account for their decisions. Push for change when it is clear that is needed and there is a clearly better and practical alternative.

But also put things into perspective because in the grander scheme of our AFL history since 97 and what is happening in the world, this has been a pretty good year so far. I certainly know it has given me a lot of enjoyment in a year that has had a shortage of happy moments.
Liked for a good first post and to say welcome.

As you know the angst is not based on a single year, but a pattern of 5-6 now; Ken burnt our last window and yet here he is with a second chance.

I'm not even necessarily against the second chance, but I'm definitely against being patient with this guy.

Welcome :thumbsu:
 
In this instance, I think there's a fine line between giving credit where it's due and the Glenelg mentality.

We're talking about an 8th year coach who has been unsuccessful on any measure of success you could possibly think of - no flag or grand final ever, no top 4 finish ever, a less than 50% strike rate in making finals.

It's like, if you haven't won a premiership, you're sort of at the point in your reign where you actually ought to be winning one or getting the DCM. Instead, we're gaslighted by the media and sections of the club into thinking it's a great achievement for an 8th year coach to finally break through to play finals and we should be eternally grateful for his presence in our midst. It's lunacy.
 
Frustration about the past I understand. And nervousness that history is set to repeat. But given that we are still top despite that loss, and now have a bunch of lowly ranked teams to come, we are still pretty well placed to finish top 2 no?

I would also argue that if we can agree that Port underperformed in many of those previous years we should also be able to recognise that we are over-performing this year.
A big test will be how we play against those “lowly-ranked” teams. Sydney, Essendon and the Kangaroos weren’t terrible the last time each played. Hawthorn have frustrated the life out of us in recent times.
Win the next four, as we clearly should, and people should at least accept that we’ve improved.
 
We have not been rotating players, we have been hellbent on making the 8.
Now that the 8 is a near certainty we will pay for not rotating players.

It feels now exactly like it did when we were 11-4.
I will be surprised if we win more than one more game this year.
Ken in his interview had the "job done" persona.

The team currently 10th has only 4 losses, we have 3.
I suspect we will be 8th after our bye.

Friday nights effort was unforgivable and a coach that had the clubs interests at heart would have said so publicly.
A coach that has the AFL's interest at heart and next years pay check secured will think otherwise.
 
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But the downside of that history is that we expect to win, or are perhaps more disappointed than most when we don’t, even though we have few of the advantages we had in our SANFL days. It would be a bit like Celtic joining the English Premier League and then expecting to dominate like it was the SPL.
Don't buy into the "this isn't the SANFL so we can't expect to be a powerhouse" narrative. This isn't the attitude we had when we entered the AFL. It's revisionist loser bullshit used by the no-hopers in leadership positions to justify their mediocre performance.
 
I'm still happy with how we're travelling until i see evidence that suggests we weren't just cooked from a run of intense games.

If we implode over the rest of the year, then fair enough to be mad, but i reckon we're still a good team and will give it a good shake. Anything can happen in finals.
 
Frustration about the past I understand. And nervousness that history is set to repeat. But given that we are still top despite that loss, and now have a bunch of lowly ranked teams to come, we are still pretty well placed to finish top 2 no?

I would also argue that if we can agree that Port underperformed in many of those previous years we should also be able to recognise that we are over-performing this year.

See emboldened text quoted above.

After a readable introductory post you have now shot yourself in the foot with a Hinkley dum-dum bullet.

We are not ‘over-performing’ this year, we are performing. Somehow we remain top of the ladder, a position the senior coach himself announced was his target in 2020 for the first time in eight years. Therefore we are performing to his expectation. We are performing, nothing more, nothing less.

To come out with such verbiage as ‘over-performing’ is classic Hinkley-speak.

Two other classic examples:
2013 - Four goals up at halftime vs Geelong in semi final: “Look over your shoulders, they’re coming for us.”
2014 - 11 and 2 and top of the ladder: “We’re not the hunters anymore, we are the hunted.”

And now:
2020 - At 9 and 3. “We are over-performing.”

Think about it.
 
See emboldened text quoted above.

After a readable introductory post you have now shot yourself in the foot with a Hinkley dum-dum bullet.

We are not ‘over-performing’ this year, we are performing. Somehow we remain top of the ladder, a position the senior coach himself announced was his target in 2020 for the first time in eight years. Therefore we are performing to his expectation. We are performing, nothing more, nothing less.

To come out with such verbiage as ‘over-performing’ is classic Hinkley-speak.

Two other classic examples:
2013 - Four goals up at halftime vs Geelong in semi final: “Look over your shoulders, they’re coming for us.”
2014 - 11 and 2 and top of the ladder: “We’re not the hunters anymore, we are the hunted.”

And now:
2020 - At 9 and 3. “We are over-performing.”

Think about it.

The sub-text is so obvious it almost doesn’t qualify as sub-text. Over-performance now clearly infers aqeduate performance later as we cascade down the ladder and onto the jagged rocks of an early finals exit.

Enough bullshit. Win or get out.
 

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