Putting season 2020 in perspective

[El Zorro]

Can we wait until the season is over before we start analysing it? For some people, it would look like the season ended at 9-2.

 

[El_Scorcho]

We were so successful in the SANFL because we were so rabid in how we demanded success as supporters. It's not a separate prism through which we must view things. It's the driving force.

The big difference now is that our organisational structure doesn't allow for us to sack the board at an AGM, so we have a big accountability problem at all levels of the club.

We absolutely must, MUST maintain the rage and demand better. The alternative as a mid sized club is being another St Kilda or Glenelg.

 

[PJ Power]

Nothing short of a 13-4 H&A finish is acceptable from here and if we’re dinkum it should be 14-3.

 

[Econopower]

Don't buy into the "this isn't the SANFL so we can't expect to be a powerhouse" narrative. This isn't the attitude we had when we entered the AFL. It's revisionist loser bullshit used by the no-hopers in leadership positions to justify their mediocre performance.

See, I strongly disagree with this.

Success simply has to be defined differently in a competition that has more equalising factors like the salary cap and the draft, and in which we are a long way from being the best resourced club in the competition.

Probabilistically one would expect to win the grand final once every 18 years and play finals 44% of the time if everything was completely even.

Of course it isn’t and there is still room for good list management, player development and coaching to improve those odds in the way that it has for say Geelong.

But thinking there is any chance we can replicate our SANFL domination inside the AFL is just a recipe for frustrating because it isn’t going to happen.

 

[El_Scorcho]

See, I strongly disagree with this.

Success simply has to be defined differently in a competition that has more equalising factors like the salary cap and the draft, and in which we are a long way from being the best resourced club in the competition.

Probabilistically one would expect to win the grand final once every 18 years and play finals 44% of the time if everything was completely even.

Of course it isn’t and there is still room for good list management, player development and coaching to improve those odds in the way that it has for say Geelong.

But thinking there is any chance we can replicate our SANFL domination inside the AFL is just a recipe for frustrating because it isn’t going to happen.

Yep, and this sort of attitude that it's just too hard means we haven't played a qualifying final in 13 years.

Meanwhile good clubs win flags on a regular basis and challenge all the time.

 

[Econopower]

We have not been rotating players, we have been hellbent on making the 8.
Now that the 8 is a near certainty we will pay for not rotating players.

It feels now exactly like it did when we were 11-4.
I will be surprised if we win more than one more game this year.
Ken in his interview had the "job done" persona.

The team currently 10th has only 4 losses, we have 3.
I suspect we will be 8th after our bye.

Friday nights effort was unforgivable and a coach that had the clubs interests at heart would have said so publicly.
A coach that has the AFL's interest at heart and next years pay check secured will think otherwise.

This is a good example of undue pessimism. The more likely scenario is thar we win 4 of our last 5 and finish in the top 2.

I’m also not sure why it needs to be called out publicly. Far more important to address what went wrong with the playing group privately in a calm and methodical way.

I have been leading largish high-performing teams for a number of years now and I can promise you that when things go wrong - as they occasionally do - I don’t call people out in front of their peers.

I get that footy is different in the sense that supporters want to see more public evidence of accountability. But there are more subtle and effective ways to mitigate people in my opinion.

 

[Econopower]

Yep, and this sort of attitude that it's just too hard means we haven't played a qualifying final in 13 years.

Meanwhile good clubs win flags on a regular basis and challenge all the time.

Is that the reason though? One can both strive hard for success and be ruthless with standards while being realistic about how success should be measured.

 

[Duck Farmer]

Success simply has to be defined differently in a competition that has more equalising factors like the salary cap and the draft, and in which we are a long way from being the best resourced club in the competition.

Tell this to the New England Patriots.

 

[Econopower]

See emboldened text quoted above.

After a readable introductory post you have now shot yourself in the foot with a Hinkley dum-dum bullet.

We are not ‘over-performing’ this year, we are performing. Somehow we remain top of the ladder, a position the senior coach himself announced was his target in 2020 for the first time in eight years. Therefore we are performing to his expectation. We are performing, nothing more, nothing less.

To come out with such verbiage as ‘over-performing’ is classic Hinkley-speak.

Two other classic examples:
2013 - Four goals up at halftime vs Geelong in semi final: “Look over your shoulders, they’re coming for us.”
2014 - 11 and 2 and top of the ladder: “We’re not the hunters anymore, we are the hunted.”

And now:
2020 - At 9 and 3. “We are over-performing.”

Think about it.

Please don’t imply that I’m stupid because I don’t agree with you.

Personally I don’t think that our list, and where it is at in its development phase, is even top 4, let alone first.

And at the start of the year most would have agreed with that and certainly informed observers outside of the club.

That is all I meant by the phrase ‘over-performing’.

Now that we are in this position we should absolutely be aiming to finish top and win, doing everything possible to achieve that aim.

But if we fall a little short you won’t see me in here throwing a tantrum about and not still able to recognise the progress that has been made.

 

[Econopower]

Tell this to the New England Patriots.

A generational coach and quarterback combination in a sport where that single position assumes more importance than it does in most others.

You watch what happens over the next few years...

 

[Lockhart Road]

Please don’t imply that I’m stupid because I don’t agree with you.

Personally I don’t think that our list, and where it is at in its development phase, is even top 4, let alone first.

And at the start of the year most would have agreed with that and certainly informed observers outside of the club.

That is all I meant by the phrase ‘over-performing’.

Now that we are in this position we should absolutely be aiming to finish top and win, doing everything possible to achieve that aim.

But if we fall a little short you won’t see me in here throwing a tantrum about and not still able to recognise the progress that has been made.

I was not implying that you are stupid, you brought that up. I was pointing out that in my opinion, on this point, you are wrong. You are, by using text like ‘over-performing’, promoting mediocrity.

 

[Econopower]

Liked for a good first post and to say welcome.

As you know the angst is not based on a single year, but a pattern of 5-6 now; Ken burnt our last window and yet here he is with a second chance.

I'm not even necessarily against the second chance, but I'm definitely against being patient with this guy.

Welcome

Thanks!

 

[Duck Farmer]

A generational coach and quarterback combination in a sport where that single position assumes more importance than it does in most others.

You watch what happens over the next few years...

Your words were "Success simply has to be defined differently in a competition that has more equalising factors like the salary cap and the draft".

Therefore there would be no chance for a team that were perennial minnows and who employed a head coach with a 45% winning record and who drafted their key player at pick 199 to dominate one of the most professional and competitive sports leagues in the world with almost twice as many teams as the AFL for nigh on 20 years. Right?

What on earth where they thinking? They could've just defined success as getting a wild card playoff berth once every 4 years.

Let's keep on giving Hinkley and Koch a pass mark because, you know, not everyone can be expected to set demanding standards of excellence and hold themselves accountable.

 

[Econopower]

I was not implying that you are stupid, you brought that up. I was pointing out that in my opinion, on this point, you are wrong. You are, by using text like ‘over-performing’, promoting mediocrity.

I think mediocrity is better defined by reference to realistic benchmarks that are themselves changing over time

Years in which I was genuinely angry were 2002, 2003, and 2005 because we should have at least made the grand final in the first two and should not have fallen away so quickly in the latter.

I was angry after the 2007 grand final because no team should ever allow itself to be humiliated in that way and there were simple tactical changes that could at least have narrowed the final margin once it became clear we could not win.

And personally I would have let Ken go after the 2017 season because my evaluation was that we should have been building on the 2013-14 seasons and had a good enough squad to consistently play off in prelims, make at least one grand final, and jag one if things did not go our way.

I attribute that to not learning the right lessons from 2014 and then making a series of poor game plan changes that made us go backwards rather than forwards.

But now that we have Ken I just can’t put 2020 into that bucket - certainly not yet.

Making a prelim final this year will be a much better achievement than 2002-03 because that earlier squad was far superior relative to its peers.

 

[Econopower]

Your words were "Success simply has to be defined differently in a competition that has more equalising factors like the salary cap and the draft".

Therefore there would be no chance for a team that were perennial minnows and who employed a head coach with a 45% winning record and who drafted their key player at pick 199 to dominate one of the most professional and competitive sports leagues in the world with almost twice as many teams as the AFL for nigh on 20 years. Right?

What on earth where they thinking? They could've just defined success as getting a wild card playoff berth once every 4 years.

Let's keep on giving Hinkley and Koch a pass mark because, you know, not everyone can be expected to set demanding standards of excellence and hold themselves accountable.

I’m not saying what you think I’m saying.

A professional sporting organisation should always be striving to perform better than the law of averages might otherwise imply.

And once it was clear that NE had a unique coach/QB combination then it was right to change the goal posts significantly.

But I don’t think it is an especially good comparison for Port. NE lucked into arguably the best QB of all time. And there is only one Belichek.

You wait to see what happens over the next decade. I’m willing to bet they don’t win a single super bowl. But they will still be more or less the same organisation, with the same standards as during the dynasty.

A more useful reference point might be Andy Reid. After falling short in multiple playoff series in Philadelphia it wasn’t until the pairing with Mahomes that he won a super bowl.

Did he suddenly become a great head coach? No. Did KC suddenly become a great organisation? No. It is the old fashioned combination of skill and luck.

 

[Duck Farmer]

But I don’t think it is an especially good comparison for Port.

True. Port were a much more successful organisation than NE. Also, a bit early to call KC a 20 year dynasty don't you think?

 

[Econopower]

True. Port were a much more successful organisation than NE. Also, a bit early to call KC a 20 year dynasty don't you think?

Absolutely but I’m confident they will achieve more success over the next decade than NE...

 

[Duck Farmer]

Absolutely but I’m confident they will achieve more success over the next decade than NE...

Do you have the same confidence in Port under Hinkley and Koch?

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Out of interest, what result for this year would be sufficient for you not to want to fire Ken?

Welcome Econopower and well done on putting your head into the lion's mouth with your opening salvo

Seeing as Pappagallo squibbed it I will have a crack at answering your question.

At the start of the year I would have said a top 8 finish and at least one finals win was the bare minimum.

From where we are now, it has to be a top 4 finish and minimum prelim final. Anything less from this position would require a capitulation that is unacceptable.

Now as Pappagallo posted it is irrelevant as Hinkley is all but over the line now. However, the bar has been set for next year.

 

[Econopower]

Welcome Econopower and well done on putting your head into the lion's mouth with your opening salvo

Seeing as Pappagallo squibbed it I will have a crack at answering your question.

At the start of the year I would have said a top 8 finish and at least one finals win was the bare minimum.

From where we are now, it has to be a top 4 finish and minimum prelim final. Anything less from this position would require a capitation that is unacceptable.

Now as Pappagallo posted it is irrelevant as Hinkley is all but over the line now. However, the bar has been set for next year.

First up, thanks for the welcome and also thank you for all the work you do on this board. As I said, I’ve been lurking for many years and the contributions of the moderators, and you in particular, is phenomenal.

From where we are now I would tend to agree that is a fair expectation.

I do worry though that there is some further regression to the mean coming.

 

[Econopower]

Do you have the same confidence in Port under Hinkley and Koch?

No, because I don’t think Ken is as good a coach as Reid and I don’t think we have a squad like KC’s.

I will be very happy to let Ken go at the end of next year if we fall backwards or there is an obviously superior option.

Missing finals or merely squeezing into the 8 would not be acceptable for example.

 

[Interstater]

Who are the top 4 coaches in the AFL?
Do you need to have a top 4 coach to win a premiership?

I've come to the conclusion that we do not have a top 4 coach and that you do need to have one to win a premiership.
I look forward to the day that our club can make its own decisions again and we can choose a top 4 coach.

Until then we supporters are just cash cows being milked by those at 140 Harbour Esplanade.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

First up, thanks for the welcome and also thank you for all the work you do on this board. As I said, I’ve been lurking for many years and the contributions of the moderators, and you in particular, is phenomenal.

From where we are now I would tend to agree that is a fair expectation.

I do worry though that there is some further regression to the mean coming.

Thanks for the kind words, not everyone would agree with you

I wouldn't let them off the hook with any regression to the mean talk. We are playing teams out of the 8 almost exclusively now. The hard work has been done.

We are playing a style of footy that is defensively sound but we are capable of scoring quickly if we have the balance right.

From this point, we have to make a statement of intent.

 

[Econopower]

Thanks for the kind words, not everyone would agree with you

I wouldn't let them off the hook with any regression to the mean talk. We are playing teams out of the 8 almost exclusively now. The hard work has been done.

We are playing a style of footy that is defensively sound but we are capable of scoring quickly if we have the balance right.

From this point, we have to make a statement of intent.

I am thinking more expectations for the finals and then for next year.

We have beaten WC and Richmond, but then lost to STK, Geelong and Brisbane, with the first two on what should have been favourable terms.

That, and my assessment of our list, tell me that we should only be around 4th favourite for the flag.

As for next year it wouldn’t surprise me if we go backwards a bit as our older players fade faster than our younger players improve.

But perhaps that is just me accepting mediocrity again

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I am thinking more expectations for the finals and then for next year.

We have beaten WC and Richmond, but then lost to STK, Geelong and Brisbane, with the first two on what should have been favourable terms.

That, and my assessment of our list, tell me that we should only be around 4th favourite for the flag.

As for next year it wouldn’t surprise me if we go backwards a bit as our older players fade faster than our younger players improve.

But perhaps that is just me accepting mediocrity again

After this year, who knows what to expect for 2021?

I really like what our list management team has been doing, so I'm a bit bullish on what we can do next year.