AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[NonPhixion]

Pendles has flown a bit under the radar missing a few games. But i think he polls in most games tbh. Wouldn’t even mind a top 5 market honestly if the price was right

 

[jack 231]

Those Sportsbet top 10 odds last week were the most generous we’ve seen all year. I got menegola top 10 $11 which is obsurd now in hindsight

 

[Gazza Guru]

Not a noted votegetter even when dominant. Last polled in rnd 17 2018.

Mcgovern and Nicnat definitely fight out the 3 and 2 in the game. Clearly the best 2 on the ground for mine.
I agree that past polling history is critical but this is possibly the best game that I ever recall McGovern playing.

By the way, did you watch this game or just go off the stats / media / previous polling history ?

 

[Gazza Guru]

Melb vs Freo

3 Cerra
2 Walters
1 Viney

Fyfe next and can probably pinch 1 with Gawn, Oliver and then Petracca ( he had a massive q3 but quiet first half ) the other good Dees.

 

[jack 231]

Melb vs Freo

3 Cerra
2 Walters
1 Viney

Fyfe next and can probably pinch 1 with Gawn, Oliver and then Petracca ( he had a massive q3 but quiet first half ) the other good Dees.

Any of the 7 you names could get any of the 3-1 votes
But I agree cerra deserves the 3. Hopefully the checkside goal he kicked locks him in for 3

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Mcgovern and Nicnat definitely fight out the 3 and 2 in the game. Clearly the best 2 on the ground for mine.
I agree that past polling history is critical but this is possibly the best game that I ever recall McGovern playing.

By the way, did you watch this game or just go off the stats / media / previous polling history ?

Watched and I agree - he SHOULD fight it out for votes but can never underestimate a player's past record and he has some huge games in the past in winning games without polling. Think back over the years to how many key defenders often poll 2's or 3's - there aren't many (which highlights one of the biggest problems with the Brownlow overall and that is a story for another day).

Am happy to be proven wrong on this one but after doing my system for so long and on this board - it usually doesn't differ massively from the final outcomes.

The 2020 Litmus Test will be Jack Steele in terms of turning around voting history.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Watched and I agree - he SHOULD fight it out for votes but can never underestimate a player's past record and he has some huge games in the past in winning games without polling. Think back over the years to how many key defenders often poll 2's or 3's - there aren't many (which highlights one of the biggest problems with the Brownlow overall and that is a story for another day).

Am happy to be proven wrong on this one but after doing my system for so long and on this board - it usually doesn't differ massively from the final outcomes.

The 2020 Litmus Test will be Jack Steele in terms of turning around voting history.

Fair points and I agree with your sentiment re defenders and McGovern in the past. However, I am sure he will poll 2 or 3 in this one.
Steele seems a different case as he has gone from a defensive mid to an attacking one ( still plays defensive at times ) and has risen to a level which puts him in the group of mids just under the elite mids this year. His lack of polling history works against him but I am pretty sure that the umps will find him in many of his good games. His risk is that they may miss him in some of the early ones where he was just an average player ( in their eyes anyway ).

 

[Geeves Train]

I’ve backed Steele so I really hope this isn’t the case but I reckon he will be the classic player where his good season in 2020 is rewarded in 2021.

 

[Gazza Guru]

I’ve backed Steele so I really hope this isn’t the case but I reckon he will be the classic player where his good season in 2020 is rewarded in 2021.

He has had a really eye catching year so will poll well, maybe just not as high as people think.

 

[jack 231]

Pendlebury is $2.50 at TABtouch most votes collingwood. Should be $1.80 in my opinion and Adams $2.20

If you have a nice bankroll and are willing to wait this out(as there’s no cashout option) bet on Pendles now then take Adams when markets open back up at other bookies for $2+

Should be a near guarantee profit unless something goes really wrong in the last 2 rounds.

Fairly safe investment IMO anyway

 

[Sausage Legs]

Laird, mcrouch, whit. B crouch unlucky.
Thoughts as this game has big impact for crows leaderboard multis etc

 

[Gazza Guru]

Laird, mcrouch, whit. B crouch unlucky.
Thoughts as this game has big impact for crows leaderboard multis etc

It was pretty hard to determine the best Crow and their votes a raffle this year I reckon as 3-4 Votes can win it.
Whitfield definitely polls and had a massive 2nd half, particularly q4.
I thought Brad Crouch was really good and also Laird and Obrien.

 

[burge13]

Mcrouch, Laird, b crouch for me. Whit did sfa until the 4th

 

[jack 231]

Pendlebury is $2.50 at TABtouch most votes collingwood. Should be $1.80 in my opinion and Adams $2.20

If you have a nice bankroll and are willing to wait this out(as there’s no cashout option) bet on Pendles now then take Adams when markets open back up at other bookies for $2+

Should be a near guarantee profit unless something goes really wrong in the last 2 rounds.

Fairly safe investment IMO anyway

Very strange. B365 Pendles is $2.20

In my head he was a clear BOG last game putting him back equal to the lead with Adams on our theoretical Brownlow leaderboard. Seems like the bookies and others don’t have Pendles polling last game..... either way $2.50 was overs I guess, won’t be any money lost here just was sure he would be shorter than that

 

[jack 231]

M crouch is $5 at B365 for anyone seeking a value bet. Laird is $1.95

 

[Benjo_]

M crouch is $5 at B365 for anyone seeking a value bet. Laird is $1.95

Gola $7 as well for Cats

 

[Sausage Legs]

Gola $7 as well for Cats

Very good

 

[jack 231]

Gola $7 as well for Cats

Yea they’ve got that wrong.

Guthrie danger and menegola should be about the same. I get it that danger could be favourite due to history and potential but there’s 2 games to go and he would be very lucky to be leading cats tally as it is

 

[Sausage Legs]

Yea they’ve got that wrong.

Guthrie danger and menegola should be about the same. I get it that danger could be favourite due to history and potential but there’s 2 games to go and he would be very lucky to be leading cats tally as it is

4.50 already

 

[freo_leo29]

4.50 already

soz, I put my 1.67 on and for some reason b365 recognise me as some master better?

They frequently change AFL odds if I jump on them for my small stake, will stay away from them altogether now as dollars that I'm betting aren't worth contributing to ruining a market advantage.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Gee their odds seem wrong on a number of clubs.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Yea they’ve got that wrong.

Guthrie danger and menegola should be about the same. I get it that danger could be favourite due to history and potential but there’s 2 games to go and he would be very lucky to be leading cats tally as it is

How many votes has Menegola received in the past years?

 

[jack 231]

Gee their odds seem wrong on a number of clubs.

What are others please. Is Cripps overs? I know he’s had a ordinary year tho

 

[jack 231]

How many votes has Menegola received in the past years?

Not a lot
Recall a 3 vote game in 2018 I think. He stands out when he wears long sleeves. Similar position to Guthrie though. Never massive pollers but had breakout years in regards to Brownlow medal / individual performance

 

[Sausage Legs]

5 bucks for crouch. 2 bucks for Laird. Could near take both and hope for crouch