Opinion Season on the line this week against Collingwood

[Kwality]

The games that will define our season won't be the ones we should win, you'll always drop a few of them a season.

It'll be the ones we aren't expected to win that we need to snag a few to counterbalance those.

On the road.

 

[Rowan18]

This is very Pessimistic. The first 6 rounds are the hard part of our draw, end up 3-3 and we are very well placed. Should go on a winning streak after that (seriously, look at our opponents up to the bye).

If we drop the game against pies, we just have to win a game we were likely to lose to make up for it. Yes, I'm talking Geelong or Sydney away, but anything is possible. Or we could finish fifth and actually win through to a prelim this time. Gotta keep the hope and see what happens.

 

[javaguice]

Why am I getting ads for McLaren come up? Google obviously knows FA about me and my income

 

[Coasters7]

I think at minimum we’d need to be 4-4 after round 8. We honestly probably need to win at least 1 of the next 2 so seeing as one is at the Cattery I’d be hoping to take the easy option (not our forte) and win tomorrow. 4-4 is par. Would require only losing 2 games for the rest of the year to make top 4. Realistically we need top 2 so if we’re any chance we probably need to win the next 3, or 3 of the next 4 leaving us 5-3.

I think the Richmond comparisons are fair if we’re playing in an even comp but the harsh reality is we need to be a 1-2 win better side than everyone else purely on location and fixture. Richmond can afford to be 2-2 because they don’t leave Melbourne for the next millennium. They can afford to finish 4th just like Hawthorn before them, because all they need to do is be the best Victorian side unless either us or Port can pull our finger out and be other worldly dominant.

Beating up on the garbage Victorian teams as “away” games at Marvel then getting all the strong interstate sides at a packed G is just another quirk of this competition. It may only be worth an extra win or two across the season but as we’ve had the unfortunate pleasure of experiencing over the last 2 years, that’s literally all the difference.

In a truly national competition there’s absolutely no way Hawthorn or Richmond are good enough sides to win as much as they have. Both have scraped into the top 4 multiple times at the expense of interstate sides on top of playing multiple GFs against interstate sides with an undeserved home ground advantage. The little things make all the difference in a competition separated by not much.

/rant

 

[The Passenger]

Richmond lost two games by 60+ in 2017, 4 by 40+ in 2019, and were 1-1-2 last year including being 63-14 down to an awful Hawthorn team. They're probably asking the same question.

Fair point and I do like your optimistic. I would contend, however, we are at our worst a lot more than RIchmond which is responsible for our bottom half of the eight efforts over previous seasons - excluding, obviously, 2018.

It's not season over if we lose this weekend. But it's definitely alarm bells.

 

[RookiePick]

It's not unreasonable to take the position that we are not out of it and anything can happen.

It's also not unreasonable to take the position that nothing has changed, based on the manner of our losses, that indicates we are going to be anything more than also rans. An Eagles fan of also ran is anything other than a flag contender. Other clubs may be happy with making finals, that's not us.

This season looks like another 5-8th finish and out in an elim or semi, at the moment. We're a very good side but too inconsistent to look like a serious challenger at this stage, much like the previous 2 seasons.

Hopefully the boys find a spark to take the next step.

 

[kranky al]

Try harakiri.

Thats tonight if we lose

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I changed my tip to Collingwood based on the cooked match committee and soft as butter playing group. No wonder we rolled out a leadership group of geriatrics again this year, the "youngsters" are post-Big Col state Liberals in terms of the leadership potential they show.

As a great snowman once said, some teams are worth melting for.

 

[truman]

Richmond lost two games by 60+ in 2017, 4 by 40+ in 2019, and were 1-1-2 last year including being 63-14 down to an awful Hawthorn team. They're probably asking the same question.

This is true but we also have the benefit of hindsight. In each of those years Richmond have made top 4 and therefore if they were in the same position as us I wouldn't say their season is on the line as they have proven they can overcome hurdles consistently since 2017. We have made top 4 once during that same time period and undoubtedly overcome more significant hurdles in 2018 however, since then I don't think we have earned the trust Richmond has.

 

[Kwality]

we’ve had the unfortunate pleasure of experiencing over the last 2 years, that’s literally all the difference.

We had the opportunity & failed.

 

[Benji85]

Last week was a fair indicator of where we are at with injuries and the like. That momentum swing was something, but the inability to stop it in anyway at both a player and coaching level was a pretty solid knock to my confidence. The final quarter fade out to the Saints was as the worst quarter I've seen in 10 years I reckon.

It's not really that we lost, I can handle losses. It's that a bottom 4 side found us out, then exploited it with such ruthlessness and were basically unimpeded for 30 minutes. Whatever was between the ears in that playing group last week is really concerning tbh

 

[Doashuey]

We should win this. If we dont then we are really up against it given our key injuries and the likely amount of time they will have out. We still have a very good list capable of winning the flag this year but lose this and we need a hell of a lot to go right to make top 4 and a shot at the flag. Win it and we arent in too bad of a position but certainly should have been in a better one.
Richmond showed us again where the Saints are at, where they are at and where we should be. We really let one slip last week but it was round 4, not round 20 so plenty of time to atone.

 

[Kwality]

Last week was a fair indicator of where we are at with injuries and the like. That momentum swing was something, but the inability to stop it in anyway at both a player and coaching level was a pretty solid knock to my confidence. The final quarter fade out to the Saints was as the worst quarter I've seen in 10 years I reckon.

It's not really that we lost, I can handle losses. It's that a bottom 4 side found us out, then exploited it with such ruthlessness and were basically unimpeded for 30 minutes. Whatever was between the ears in that playing group last week is really concerning tbh

Flakey is a description of the current squad, demeaning yes, but they can redeem themselves & a win v the Pies wont do that.

 

[ziad]

Flakey is a description of the current squad, demeaning yes, but they can redeem themselves & a win v the Pies wont do that.

Sadly we have only one win against quality. And we lost the second half of that game as it become contested. A win against the Pies will not help as you say. A loss will be another thing.

 

[CM9000]

Fair point and I do like your optimistic. I would contend, however, we are at our worst a lot more than RIchmond which is responsible for our bottom half of the eight efforts over previous seasons - excluding, obviously, 2018.

It's not season over if we lose this weekend. But it's definitely alarm bells.

Richmond also have long periods of consecutive games at their home ground. Imagine if we had blocks of consecutive games in WA, like in 2020 every year, which is what they get.

Really, 2020 was the first time Richmond actually proved anything to me. It wasn’t the extension of a “dynasty”, it was the first time they’ve actually been challenged.

 

[SloppyJoe]

Sadly we have only one win against quality. And we lost the second half of that game as it become contested. A win against the Pies will not help as you say. A loss will be another thing.

I see - if we win the contested ball, then the game is not contested.

 

[Astro7]

If we lose this week it's almost certain we lose to Geelong leaving us likely at least two games out of the top 4. Am I being to pessimistic?

Well, not sure, but the only wildcard option left if we fall just outside the 4 (and haven't we been there before!) is that the injury gods return the tax we paid earlier in the season, and have us with a near full compliment of our best players for finals.
We then win every game to the GF, then mission accomplished as our best team stuns the oppo and bedazzles the crowd and holds the Tin Mug aloft and everyone gets married and lives happily ever after!?
That's as good a fantasy as any going around, so why not?

 

[ziad]

I see - if we win the contested ball, then the game is not contested.

we were out mongrelled and out done in the G&D department. You know what they say about statistics.

 

[Kwality]

I see - if we win the contested ball, then the game is not contested.

Wakey wakey ...

 

[Biggie]

3-2. Season alive

Or some shit.