AFL 2021 AFL Round 12

[StringyDog]

J Cripps, hasn't been in best of form but still getting 2-3 shots on goal a week, less tall forwards so should get targeted more, is a bit of a down hill skier but, High scoring game check, bottom 8 side check, poor defensive opponent (likely Stocker or Williams) check, should hopefully suit

3+ @9.5
4+@34
5+@101

 

[Robo87]

Not sure who moved the market

But b365 for 4+ now paying $30...

oh nice, well i put some double bets on in hope this would come in and offer a good cash out option.

for an extra 1 unit i put on 3g+ @51 i can now cashout for almost 4u. yes thankyou b365 . then ill let my other bailey bets i posted ride.

 

[Del125763]

^^^ Also hedging my bet with this one:

McKay, Betts and Jack Martin combined to score 1+ Goal every Quarter 2.50
Lobb, Taberner and Schultz combined to score 1+ Goal every Quarter 4.50


Multi Price: 11.25 (Boosted to 12.19)

Taking a bit of a bet on the weather in Perth but having Taberner in the team makes Freo a better forward functioning team.

 

[Del125763]

the Franklin, Heeney, Papley 1+ Goal combined every quarter, fell short yesterday with 0 goals in the 4th qtr between the 3

 

[Robo87]

the Franklin, Heeney, Papley 1+ Goal combined every quarter, fell short yesterday with 0 goals in the 4th qtr between the 3

i know i was on it. so close! was going really well up to 3qrt time. this is the sort of bet that works well in high scoring games tho.

 

[Kiddbrown]

Betts more goals than Ryan $2.60 tab

 

[Robo87]

betts odds very short on sb. so boycotting sb again..
(also feel its safer to bet on betts for 2g+ than it is for betts to beat ryan.)
2.5u betts 2g+ @2.30 tab
1.5u betts 3g+ @5 tab
1u betts 4g+ @15 tab
0.2u betts 5g+ @51 tab

 

[Del125763]

Net Disposals of Eagles and Blues in 2021:

In 2021:
Blues -10.0 Disposals Per game
Eagles -22.4 Disposals Per Game

In 2020:
Blues -3.5 Disposals per game
Eagles -16.4 Disposals per game

Where the Eagles did have the advantage this season was in contested ball and in tight , losing Tim Kelly who is their highest average contested ball player this season will be huge.

Line for Disposals

Carlton Under 355.5 Disposals $1.88 v $1.88 Carlton Over 355.5 Disposals
West Coast Under 348.5 Disposals $1.88 v $1.88 West Coast Over 348.5 Disposals

Carlton season average is 354.6 disposals per game, Eagles average 360.1 disposals per game. Carlton overs looks a good bet to me.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Fremantle under 364.5 disposals @ 1.88 (Topsport). Bulldogs haven't conceded this big a number all season

 

[Ohh Ok]

2u - Yeo over 22.5 disposals - $1.87 - SB
Tough contested player, had a quiet game last week in his return from injury but should be feeling better from the run. Will average over this number for the season, so backing at what is a low line due to his time away and Rusty first game.

 

[balmainforever]

Nic Nat 15+
Yeo, sheed 25+
Ryan 2+ goals
@$10

 

[balmainforever]

Taken
Ryan 4+,5+,6+ goals as a laugh

 

[BloodRet]

Darling 5+ @11.25 boost sb

Bailey williams 4,5 + @51, 101 topsport, in kennedy's absense he might become more of a forward focus

Darling 3
Fisher
Ryan
@4.7 sb

Williams 2
Cripps
Petrucelle
@12.2

And my flyin ryan bets from earlier in the week

 

[The_Steadier]

2u - Yeo over 22.5 disposals - $1.87 - SB
Tough contested player, had a quiet game last week in his return from injury but should be feeling better from the run. Will average over this number for the season, so backing at what is a low line due to his time away and Rusty first game.

Inspired me to have a hail mary on yeobot to have most possies group 1 and 30+ at $45.50 boosted SB.

 

[Del125763]

The Nic Nat Stat

PointsBet Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Goals x Handballs):

Will try a 5th time to get in the positive . (some of you guys might see me as a jinx )

Patrick Cripps 114-134
Sam Walsh 101-119
Marc Murphy 80-94
Jack Martin 72-84
Harry McKay 57-67
Ed Curnow 52-62
Eddie Betts 46-54
Will Setterfield 28-34
Dom Sheed 56-66
Andrew Gaff 51-61
Jake Waterman 39-47
Nic Naitanui 12-16
Jack Darling 90-106
Jamie Cripps 39-47


My tips:
Patrick Cripps UNDER 114
Sam Walsh OVER 119
Marc Murphy UNDER 80
Jack Martin UNDER 72
Harry McKay UNDER 57
Ed Curnow OVER 62
Eddie Betts UNDER 46
Will Setterfield NO PLAY
Dom Sheed OVER 66
Andrew Gaff OVER 61
Jake Waterman NO PLAY
Nic Natanui OVER 16
Jack Darling NO PLAY
Jamie Cripps OVER 47

Seems like PointsBet are monitoring this thread carefully as well


The Stats Multiplier has moved for: Nic Nat (currently 16-20), Jamie Cripps (47-55), Dom Sheed (70-82)

 

[Robo87]

ok so teamlists updated again and its another great sign for us bailey backers!!!!
Bailey starting at hf now!!
silvagni also moved out to hf and fischer moved into fwd pocket.
think ill get on fisher too...

 

[Del125763]

Zac Fisher 2+ Goals
Rory Lobb 2 + Goals

Odds: 8.91 (Boosted to 9.60)

 

[Ohh Ok]

4u - Hurn, Redden, Cripps 20+ disposals - $1.75 - TAB

 

[5 Bucks]

Eagles at the line +13.5

Gaff, Sheed, Redden, Yeo is still a good midfield and most importantly Naitanui is the main man and should dominate Pitto.

Betts will struggle to get a kick on an actual good player like Sheppard, and McKay will need to kick straight for the Blues to put up a winning score.

Yes the eagles have some outs and a few WAFL players playing but...

TDK, Owies, Dow, Stocker, Cottrell... old Murphy, Setterfield, Silvagni... not exactly dealing with the elite here.

 

[Robo87]

think ill get on fisher too...

2u fisher 2g+ @3.85 TS
1u fisher 3g+ @11 TS
0.5u fisher 4g+ @41 TS top up

adding
1u sgm -fisher 2g+, betts 2g @8.35 lads boosted
0.5u sgm -fisher 2g+, betts 3g @13.28lads boosted
0.5u sgm -fisher3g+, betts 2g @18.45 lads boosted
0.3u sgm -fisher 3g+, betts 3g @30.23 lads boosted

 

[Squall]

Bulldogs -3.5 each qtr $10.50 Sportsbet

 

[NonPhixion]

The Georgie Parker SportsBet multi
Betts 2+, Under 173.5, Carlton 1-39 $9.25

obviously getting paid by the bookmaker but it’s actually not a bad multi. Under’s is probably the concern

 

[Geead]

4u - Hurn, Redden, Cripps 20+ disposals - $1.75 - TAB

Tailled for 3u, added Ed Curnow to make it $2.05

 

[Prochard123]

1. Dom Sheed to get 28 disposals or more - $1.97 - 1.5 U
2. Elliot Yeo to get 22 disposals or more - $1.90 - 1 U
3. Jack Redden to get 20 possessions or more - $1.10 - 1 U

All low conviction picks. Was very bullish on Dom Sheed leading into the match, but most of the upside had already been captured with the high disposal line.

 

[BloodRet]

Joining a crack at the scg kid silvagni goals