Bluemour Melting Pot XXIX

[Cripptonite]

I’m fine for us getting Cerra so long as we don’t overpay. Reports that he’s taken less to come to Vic sound promising, but surely we need to find a way back into the first round of the draft this year?

I may have not watched Cerra enough but every time I do watch him he reminds me so much of Bryce Gibbs in every way. Gibbs was no doubt was a very good durable player. Was he worth more than Pick 5? Probably not I’d say that would be spot on his value IMO.

Since we should have the leverage with Cerra being out of contract, I’d be trying to find a way for us to get back into the late first round whether that be via Freo or other clubs indirectly. If that’s where SPS or Fisher get involved then it will be sad to lose either, but we can’t afford to be forfeiting two years’ worth of first round picks IMO.

 

[GoBlues!]

Though Caro has got a lot right in this saga, and the CFC connection was there from a long time ago, I reckon early on in the season. “Clarko to Carlton won’t go away”.

You may be right.

Clarkson..Carlkson..Carlson..Carlton.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Agree with you. And it's not about what Cerra's worth, it's about what other clubs are willing to pay. No club is going to outbid us with pick 5 on its own, so why would we sweeten that deal? That might still be the case still if we traded back some places and if so we should do so. Cerra is far from the greatest area of need, don't want to see us putting all our eggs in that basket.

Sorry but I think that our midfield is by far our greatest area of need. By the length of the proverbial flemington straight.

 

[2ndeffort]

He has a huge work ethic and is a career senior coach.

He just has to determine if this is the right role for him, but his coaching this year with the players he has had available has been exceptional. Missed 2 of their best (Sicily, Gunston) and managed stay competitive.

I've got no inside info, just my deductions from stuff I've read in the papers. Clarko is contracted for next year to Hawthorn. They've decided that Mitchell is replacing him so they need to pay Clarkson out, reportedly to the tune of around $900K. If he breaks the contract by walking to another club they'll keep that money because he was the one to walk out. If he forces their hand they'll have to pay him out. He is going to do everything he can to force their hand to pay him out, it is literally just short of the million dollar question. He is not going to say anything publicly that would give hawthorn cause to believe they should hold onto their money because they might save $900K. He is going to say he hasn't made his mind up, right up until that $900K is safely in his bank account, if that means he has to miss out on a coaching opportunity, so be it, he's the guru of coaching, as soon as he safely has Hawthorn's money and puts his hand up another suitor will come along and offer him a contract. If that means he takes a holiday from footy, you can have a pretty sensational holiday for $900K. I don't think he's having an overseas holiday, one of his kids is doing VCE and there's nowhere you can travel to anyway with COVID. Its all posturing to force Hawthorn's hand to pay him out early, then the real fun begins. Our best chance of getting him would be if the Hawks decided to end all the speculation and dumped $900K into his bank account on Monday morning, but why would they do that, why not draw it out and maybe save yourselves a million bucks.

 

[Beyond Blue]

Cerra is easily worth a 1st, so paying that, isn't bending over

Although, I suspect we will offer a up a player and exchanging of picks

I think it’s inevitable that it’ll take at least a first rounder to get Cerra. I think given where their lists are at the Hawks, North and even the Tigers need to keep drafting young high end talent so they are unlikely to want to cough up a high pick for Cerra. Which really leaves it down to us as he is obviously not going to Adelaide or Gold Coast. That said Freo have to be realistic in their dealings with us otherwise he’ll walk to the PSD and North will take him for free. Given it’s a compromised draft with little underage footy player this season and the likely prospect that the player we most need in the draft (Gibcus) being gone by the time our pick comes around if we had to swap that to get Cerra I would probably be ok with it if we gave up either pick 5 or a late first and any one of Setterfield, Fisher or McGovern to get the deal done (I’d rather we kept Samo, Dow and LOB and see what a new coach could do with them).

I really hope Austen is already doing the rounds to 1) ascertain whether Gibcus will or will not be available at our first pick (taking into account NGAs) and 2) try shop the first round pick around to trade down to later in the first round which is what he should have done with the Saad pick last year. It’ll say a lot as to if he has or hasn’t learnt from his mistakes last year when he overpaid for Saad (along with getting hoodwinked into believing Williams could be a midfielder). My concern is he is 1) a lightweight negotiator that others teams feel they can easily take advantage of and/or 2) being influenced by people above him like Liddell to get big name recruits who may or may not be good list fits just to sell hope and memberships. He also needs to fix the mess he made at KPP depth and target Talia, OBrien and/or Riccardi to urgently address, albeit this should be done at a relatively light cost in terms of trade capital.

 

[charred_fate]

The way some of the Freo fans talk about trade scenarios, you'd swear Cerra was Chris Judd..

It is funny how biased supporters are. Every club’s supporters do it with their own players. We’d probably be among the biggest culprits, I’d say.

 

[ferrisb]

Everyone: "We need more quality mids"
Cerra: "I'm a quality mid, I'm willing to sign for less at the Blues, you just need to give Fremantle a fair trade"
Everyone: *boos*

Even more than this...

• We need more quality mids.
• Most of our current mids lack class/polish
• We need outside mids more than inside
• Ideally any outside classy player we get can still be effective inside if needed
• One of our biggest problems is delivery inside 50
• We don't need more kids, yet you don't want to waste your time on veterans either

If you put those requirements into a computer that analyses AFL players, it would probably spit out Adam Cerra right near the top.

Not saying he's a perfect player, but he's probably exactly what our side needs.

 

[TheBlueCampaigner]

Being aggressive and all 'we're Carlton, **** the rest' hasn't exactly worked out swimmingly the last couple of decades....

Yeah but you gotta admit it’s a pretty cool motto..

 

[StandByyourMan]

What does his name mean in I talian?

penith, actually.

 

[Loose at HB]

I think just pick 5 is a bit disrespectful to Cerra. Out of him/Brayshaw/Serong he's the Freo mid that I would value the lowest but I think if we had another young mid outside Walsh that had performed half as well as Adam has we'd be screaming for 2 firsts if he wanted to leave. He's only 21 - there's 10 years of very good (he's already shown) to elite (he may get there) level play ahead of him.

Valuing him at something around a first + second seems reasonable to me - tbh I would do 5/6 + next year's second (hopefully around 30) and be done with it. Not super keen on trading Fisher, SPS I would be but I don't think Freo would perceive him as worth a heap

 

[no fate]

Sorry but I think that our midfield is by far our greatest area of need. By the length of the proverbial flemington straight.

Respect your opinion, however I am a fair bit more optimistic on our midfield. Think if we can get Cripps back close to his best and Dow to keep rapidly improving, paired with Walsh that is a pretty decent combination. Looking forward to see Stocker in there too and we should get to have a look at that next year. Then there are some others that might prove to be good rotations and VFL load carriers. Actually we have a shed load of midfielders, just not all proving themselves at this point.

I'm not saying don't keep building our midfield and if we get Cerra at a reasonable price and salary I'll be happy, it's just not the be all and end all. Think we need another young ruck/KPP for sure.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Sorry but I think that our midfield is by far our greatest area of need. By the length of the proverbial flemington straight.

I can understand thinking our midfield is our greatest area of need. Why do you have it so much more important than addressing our lack of KPPs?

 

[charred_fate]

I think it’s inevitable that it’ll take at least a first rounder to get Cerra. I think given where their lists are at the Hawks, North and even the Tigers need to keep drafting young high end talent so they are unlikely to want to cough up a high pick for Cerra. Which really leaves it down to us as he is obviously not going to Adelaide or Gold Coast. That said Freo have to be realistic in their dealings with us otherwise he’ll walk to the PSD and North will take him for free. Given it’s a compromised draft with little underage footy player this season and the likely prospect that the player we most need in the draft (Gibcus) being gone by the time our pick comes around if we had to swap that to get Cerra I would probably be ok with it if we gave up either pick 5 or a late first and any one of Setterfield, Fisher or McGovern to get the deal done (I’d rather we kept Samo, Dow and LOB and see what a new coach could do with them).

I really hope Austen is already doing the rounds to 1) ascertain whether Gibcus will or will not be available at our first pick (taking into account NGAs) and 2) try shop the first round pick around to trade down to later in the first round which is what he should have done with the Saad pick last year. It’ll say a lot as to if he has or hasn’t learnt from his mistakes last year when he overpaid for Saad (along with getting hoodwinked into believing Williams could be a midfielder). My concern is he is 1) a lightweight negotiator that others teams feel they can easily take advantage of and/or 2) being influenced by people above him like Liddell to get big name recruits who may or may not be good list fits just to sell hope and memberships. He also needs to fix the mess he made at KPP depth and target Talia, OBrien and/or Riccardi to urgently address, albeit this should be done at a relatively light cost in terms of trade capital.

If Cerra is not high-end, young talent, why would we consider parting with pick 5? ... Honestly, if those clubs are all choosing the draft, then that tells me to proceed with caution. To suggest that a 22 year old could not be part of a rebuilding club on the basis of his age is just wrong, imo - if he was deemed good enough, they would all be making big plays.

 

[bmaurizio]

What does his name mean in I talian?

At 187cm/86kg he’s not a fragile physic, like SPS or Fisher they just get bundled over anytime, Adam has good footy IQ so he can read the game & avoid unesseccary the impact easily. He’s skills aren’t to bad at all, a well balanced midfielder 22 yrs old, that can kick well, no waxing about it.

 

[Aphrodite]

Lot of list management going on in here.

Lots of everything going on in here.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

IDK, his coaching style is fine if it means we don’t concede 19 goals in a row to sides.

Didn't Ross concede 23 consecutive with Freo?

 

[Aphrodite]

Wow Metalcrusher in the red , ie suspended. Seen a few casualties the last couple of days.

Yes he is but it wasn't from our Board Acey.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

If Cerra is not high-end, young talent, why would we consider parting with pick 5? ... Honestly, if those clubs are all choosing the draft, then that tells me to proceed with caution. To suggest that a 22 year old could not be part of a rebuilding club on the basis of his age is just wrong, imo - if he was deemed good enough, they would all be making big plays.

Tracking well with Taranto....

Adam Cerra and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Beyond Blue]

I can understand thinking our midfield is our greatest area of need. Why do you have it so much more important than addressing our lack of KPPs?

Comparing for example Essendon’s top end midfielder options (Merrett, Parish, McGrath, Shiel, Stringer, Langford) to ours (Cripps, Walsh, E Curnow, Setterfield, Dow, Kennedy) tells me it’s our biggest area of concern.
Also the the KPP issue is more around depth as the 2 first choice guys are top 5 players at the club, so it’s easier to solve KPP depth issues than it is to solve top end midfield talent with the options in the current marketplace.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

If Cerra is not high-end, young talent, why would we consider parting with pick 5? ... Honestly, if those clubs are all choosing the draft, then that tells me to proceed with caution. To suggest that a 22 year old could not be part of a rebuilding club on the basis of his age is just wrong, imo - if he was deemed good enough, they would all be making big plays.

He’s an ordinary kick, outside mid, who is an ordinary kick, with 16.25 from 70 games and is an ordinary kick.

For pick 5 & a million bucks.....

 

[charred_fate]

Tracking well with Taranto....

Adam Cerra and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Tim Taranto AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

That may be so, but it doesn't address my point... Wouldn't say I'm the biggest Taranto fan for that matter either, but I'd guarantee that he'd have had a number of clubs vying for his signature if he'd chosen to return home.

Another interesting take - if Cerra has reached his ceiling (and we don't know - he may have. Arguably, Taranto had his best season a couple of years ago so may have peaked), is trading pick 5 still the best option? Or would the gamble of the draft be the choice in that scenario?

I can see arguments both ways, but as I've said previously, I lean towards taking a risk for potential far higher reward, and I think we're in a safe enough position to do so. I think we've been burnt in so many ways over so many years that there is a very conservative mindset amongst supporters, generally - fear of an untried coach, fear of the draft etc.

 

[I bleed Blue]

Look if we took pick 5 to the draft and got a Cerra we would be happy.

Do Freo want a bit more because he is proven?

Hopefully pick 5 on its own does the deal.

But if they want more and sps wants to go home then how about

Pick 5 and SPS

Cerra + 2nd round pick

 

[Beyond Blue]

If Cerra is not high-end, young talent, why would we consider parting with pick 5? ... Honestly, if those clubs are all choosing the draft, then that tells me to proceed with caution. To suggest that a 22 year old could not be part of a rebuilding club on the basis of his age is just wrong, imo - if he was deemed good enough, they would all be making big plays.

They may not feel like they will be challenging for a flag in the next 2-3 years so they are likely to be looking at the long term and taking a 17 year old who’ll take 2-3 years to hit his straps as opposed to Cerra who will be immediately good next season for whoever he plays for. You might think I’m being a bit optimistic but I do believe a good coach and some good list decisions in this off season can get us up the ladder quickly from here so I think he is a better fit for us.

 

[footyfan1978]

Respect your opinion, however I am a fair bit more optimistic on our midfield. Think if we can get Cripps back close to his best and Dow to keep rapidly improving, paired with Walsh that is a pretty decent combination. Looking forward to see Stocker in there too and we should get to have a look at that next year. Then there are some others that might prove to be good rotations and VFL load carriers. Actually we have a shed load of midfielders, just not all proving themselves at this point.

I'm not saying don't keep building our midfield and if we get Cerra at a reasonable price and salary I'll be happy, it's just not the be all and end all. Think we need another young ruck/KPP for sure.

Yeah, it certainly not a priority.
Need way more attention on backline and ruck than getting another young midfield option right now.
What we should be doing is putting all our internal effort into actually developing the ones we drafted. Otherwise we not learned anything about development.

 

[charred_fate]

They may not feel like they will be challenging for a flag in the next 2-3 years so they are likely to be looking at the long term and taking a 17 year old who’ll take 2-3 years to hit his straps as opposed to Cerra who will be immediately good next season for whoever he plays for. You might think I’m being a bit optimistic but I do believe a good coach and some good list decisions in this off season can get us up the ladder quickly from here so I think he is a better fit for us.

I don't see it that way at all - if they rate Cerra, they see him as a safe-bet who should be playing at the level for the next 8 years. If they don't expect to be challenging for 9+ years, then they pass, but that is unrealistic. It's not that far off saying that they'd go to the draft instead of taking Sam Walsh because Walsh is 21...

The perspective that is being tossed around here is that we need someone who can impact immediately. I see that as an ideal scenario I guess, but not a be all and end all, not even close. We've got time. The other perspective is that he's a known quantity - differences of opinion here based on how we each rate him. I would say some are biased because of the appeal of a known quantity and the fear of the draft though. I still come back to my other main point - the fact that there are no other clubs making strong plays is curious, to say the least.