Realistically, where do you see us finishing this year?

[thylacine60]

Someone being realistic
You finished 13th last year with a relatively good injury run(compared to other teams around you) you have a new coach, likely a new complete game plan I think 6th-10th for your mob is most definitely best case scenario but I can’t see it
If you take out mckay, you had Eddie who kicked 25 odd goals, he’s gone now, and your next highest was 15(owies) and this is all with an extremely attacking gameplan
Curnow can potentially become a 1-2 goal a game player but other then that is there anyone else on your list that I can see getting into that range? To win games you need to kick goals, and to kick goals you need a decent forward line, without mckay and curnow there’s nothing and you can’t realistically rely on either of them to play a full season, let alone carry you to finals.
13th-15th for me.

and where do you see your mob finishing?

 

[Stig O'Hara]

With that list, top 8.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Someone being realistic
You finished 13th last year with a relatively good injury run(compared to other teams around you) you have a new coach, likely a new complete game plan I think 6th-10th for your mob is most definitely best case scenario but I can’t see it
If you take out mckay, you had Eddie who kicked 25 odd goals, he’s gone now, and your next highest was 15(owies) and this is all with an extremely attacking gameplan
Curnow can potentially become a 1-2 goal a game player but other then that is there anyone else on your list that I can see getting into that range? To win games you need to kick goals, and to kick goals you need a decent forward line, without mckay and curnow there’s nothing and you can’t realistically rely on either of them to play a full season, let alone carry you to finals.
13th-15th for me.

… and where do you see the Pies finishing?

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

Back in the day in a twelve team comp I was supremely confident in beating 10 sides.
Now fourteen clubs are supremely confident on beating us in an eighteen team comp.
We have to start beating sides that have it over us consistently, if things are going to change.
8th - 10th

 

[SurreyBlue]

We will play finals. Where we finish will depend on our boys wellbeing at the time.

 

[Bletch]

Someone being realistic
You finished 13th last year with a relatively good injury run(compared to other teams around you) you have a new coach, likely a new complete game plan I think 6th-10th for your mob is most definitely best case scenario but I can’t see it
If you take out mckay, you had Eddie who kicked 25 odd goals, he’s gone now, and your next highest was 15(owies) and this is all with an extremely attacking gameplan
Curnow can potentially become a 1-2 goal a game player but other then that is there anyone else on your list that I can see getting into that range? To win games you need to kick goals, and to kick goals you need a decent forward line, without mckay and curnow there’s nothing and you can’t realistically rely on either of them to play a full season, let alone carry you to finals.
13th-15th for me.

Had a terrible run with injuries last year. Started with 10-12 on the injury list, bunch of others playing with little pre-season. Rarely got better than that during the year.

Otherwise, though, you make some decent points. I'd agree 6th would be at the higher end of expectations. Curnow has missed a lot of footy, but has the potential to be a 50+ a year goalkicker. The list is a lot better with the additions, despite the loss of Eddie.

I can see why you'd say 13-15 - as much as 6 is at higher end then 15 would be at the lower end. We're thin on talls - a significant injury to either McKay or Weitering would probably see us in that lower bracket. Add to that Walsh missing the first few matches isn't ideal.

 

[Bletch]

I'll take an optimistic punt at 7-8. Though as I said above to the Pie intruder, it wouldn't take much for us to fall into the bottom bracket.

 

[creamPIES]

… and where do you see the Pies finishing?

Same range as the blues tbh, best case scenario 6th-10th but realistically, 13th-15th, basically in the exact same boat, new coach, new game plan, a few superstars like grundy moore and jdg if he gets his s**t together, but we don’t have a forward line good enough to consistently kick a winning score, and you can’t expect to consistently win games of footy when your only kicking around 10 goals a game, no matter how good your backs and mids are. not trying to start an argument mate I think it’s a very interesting debate, I’ve seen people predict carlton to finish either ends of the ladder they are a hard one to pick, fwiw I see them playing finals in 2023, could potentially be a blessing in disguise to miss finals this year and hit the draft again hard, we’ve seen how crucial some of melbournes kids like jackson and kozzie were in breaking their drought.

 

[CJMB]

Someone being realistic
You finished 13th last year with a relatively good injury run(compared to other teams around you) you have a new coach, likely a new complete game plan I think 6th-10th for your mob is most definitely best case scenario but I can’t see it
If you take out mckay, you had Eddie who kicked 25 odd goals, he’s gone now, and your next highest was 15(owies) and this is all with an extremely attacking gameplan
Curnow can potentially become a 1-2 goal a game player but other then that is there anyone else on your list that I can see getting into that range? To win games you need to kick goals, and to kick goals you need a decent forward line, without mckay and curnow there’s nothing and you can’t realistically rely on either of them to play a full season, let alone carry you to finals.
13th-15th for me.

I’m not sure Betts (and Murphy) leaving is a bad thing for the forward line.

Two of the smalls who broke into the team last year fit that range. Owies averaged 1.2 goals across 13 games and Honey was 1.5 across his 5.

Curnow actually being out there is another, as you mentioned. If Martin and Fisher stay fit and are playing predominantly forward then they should be good for a few goals too.

There’s a pretty crucial step before the kicking goals part, and that’s forward entries. Ours have been putrid in recent times. The likes of Cerra and Hewett will help there.

There’s also the concept that a hyper aggressive attacking game plan like Teague’s doesn’t necessarily relate to the best or most efficient method of putting forwards in a position to score. Again, s*** entries and a reduction in repeat entries.

Not saying everything is fixed and there’s not going to be some issues or teething problems, I’m hardly worried about Voss and Hanson’s forward line (compared to Teague/Bruce) or not having Eddie up forward.

 

[creamPIES]

Had a terrible run with injuries last year. Started with 10-12 on the injury list, bunch of others playing with little pre-season. Rarely got better than that during the year.

Otherwise, though, you make some decent points. I'd agree 6th would be at the higher end of expectations. Curnow has missed a lot of footy, but has the potential to be a 50+ a year goalkicker. The list is a lot better with the additions, despite the loss of Eddie.

I can see why you'd say 13-15 - as much as 6 is at higher end then 15 would be at the lower end. We're thin on talls - a significant injury to either McKay or Weitering would probably see us in that lower bracket. Add to that Walsh missing the first few matches isn't ideal.

Definitely agree re curnow, I’ve always felt for the guy, so much potential but never got a sustained run at it.
I was more implying with the injury comment, that other teams around that 9th-14th bracket arguably had it worse, richmond who i think are the most likely to jump up the ladder, had crucial players like dusty balta prestia ect miss extended periods, and the other team I expect to jump up is freo, and they just got ruined last year by injuries.
I do agree your list is better then last year, hewett and cerra were both astute pick ups and majorly improve your midfield, but Eddie and especially jones are two big outs, I always thought jones was crucial to your team, he allowed weitering to do what he does best and roll of his man and intercept, while also consistently locking down the number 1 forward, not to mention with a lot of your defenders they are very attacking and intercept minded, which is fine but there needs to be a balance, and jones fit that gap perfectly.
Definitely an interesting discussion, if walsh can come back looking like he hasn’t missed a beat, cripps can get back to his best, and mckay curnow and weitering can stay relatively injury free your definitely in the mix for finals, I just think this year will more be about developing young talent like kemp stocker de koning dow Motlop ect and learning how voss wants you to play, and with another dip into the trade period, or what I think would be better, one last year going heavy into the draft, potentially even trading out your 2023 1st to really set yourselves up for a crack at sustained success

 

[JustaBattler]

The sides I wouldn't give Carlton much chance of beating in '22 include: Melbourne/Brisbane/GWS
The sides I wouldn't be surprised to lose to include - any team in the competition on any given day.

Anything could happen - except finishing top4.

 

[Arr0w]

11-13 wins

 

[creamPIES]

I’m not sure Betts (and Murphy) leaving is a bad thing for the forward line.

Two of the smalls who broke into the team last year fit that range. Owies averaged 1.2 goals across 13 games and Honey was 1.5 across his 5.

Curnow actually being out there is another, as you mentioned. If Martin and Fisher stay fit and are playing predominantly forward then they should be good for a few goals too.

There’s a pretty crucial step before the kicking goals part, and that’s forward entries. Ours have been putrid in recent times. The likes of Cerra and Hewett will help there.

There’s also the concept that a hyper aggressive attacking game plan like Teague’s doesn’t necessarily relate to the best or most efficient method of putting forwards in a position to score. Again, s*** entries and a reduction in repeat entries.

Not saying everything is fixed and there’s not going to be some issues or teething problems, I’m hardly worried about Voss and Hanson’s forward line (compared to Teague/Bruce) or not having Eddie up forward.

I definitely agree with eddie and murphy leaving not being the worst thing for the club, especially for the future. Both have been superstars for your club but I think it was definitely the right time to move them on, mind you even at the time of getting Eddie back I didn’t think it was the right move, he was never going to be apart of your next premiership, and was just taking games off players like honey and owies.
Cerra will definitely improve your kicking inside 50 immensely, he was severely underrated when playing for freo, and if I’m being honest what you payed for him I would still consider to be unders, he’s already a gun, but has the potential to be a superstar.
IMO what your missing to be a serious contender is another quality kpd and small forward, if you can fill those two list needs whether it be next draft or trade period, or there’s someone already on your list that can make that step up, it will go a long way to making finals.

 

[CJMB]

Who voted 13-14 and 15-16?…

Looks like whoever voted 15-16 has changed their vote to 17-18…

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Assuming all clubs have the same injury run, then sneaking into finals

 

[carlton_99]

If our injuries last year were "relatively good" I shudder to think what a bad injury run is

 

[Navy_Blueblood]

Realistically: 7 - 11

If we do make it into the 8, we could certainly produce big upsets. Our best is excellent. That would worry sides

 

[Juice030103]

If our injuries last year were "relatively good" I shudder to think what a bad injury run is

We were bottom 4 for missed games due to injury and we had a good injury run apparently. He does raise good points to be fair and everyone’s entitled to their own opinion

 

[Arr0w]

Looks like whoever voted 15-16 has changed their vote to 17-18…

Trolls

 

[carlton_99]

We were bottom 4 for missed games due to injury and we had a good injury run apparently. He does raise good points to be fair and everyone’s entitled to their own opinion

Bottom 4 ranked from least to most or most to least?

 

[Juice030103]

We were bottom 4 for missed games due to injury and we had a good injury run apparently. He does raise good points to be fair and everyone’s entitled to their own opinion

Also had a fire burning within the club

 

[footyfan1978]

With that list, top 8.

For sure.

 

[Juice030103]

Bottom 4 ranked from least to most or most to least?

Sorry I mean least to most but would’ve made more sense the other way round. Gws Richmond and another side only had more injuries than us last year from memory

 

[Yubby]

My version of this...

I think we're capable of kicking on average an additional goal a game compared to last year. This improvement comes from better entries into the 50 through Cerra, Hewett, LOB and Fisher. Also add in having a 2nd KPF in Charlie to contribute to the goals. Eddie's contribution i think will be absorbed by other smalls.

I also think we'll be a 2.1 goal better defensive side due to a better game plan that has defense built into it and that has players who understand it. Plus added benefits of a stronger midfield to improve clearances thus meaning we have more possession or first possession. Jones will be a loss but only if the system exposes us as much as it did last year.

When you combine those two elements together +6 FOR and -13 AGAINST, it would mean we win 11 games if we used the scores from each match of ours in 2021. It would leave us with an end of season total of 1878 FOR and 1686 AGAINST for a Percentage of 111.4%. Looking at last years ladder that puts us in 8th spot.

So to me the question is do we think those assumptions are realistic or not? If they are, then finals is highly likely!

 

[AceAndy]

We are not top 4 or bottom 4 side so I am thinking around 9 th or 10th.

If we can give get some momentum and confidence after the first five or six games (something we havent done for some time) we may just sneak into the bottom of the eight.