Player Watch Fischer McAsey - Steps Away from Football, Not Returning

[UcantCme]

We win some we lose some. That is life. We got Butts at pick 39 in the rookie draft. To get a key defender of his quality at that pick is an awesome draft steal. We got Frampton for virtually nothing (future fourth round pick). If our back six keep developing as they are showing,we got the two key talls in this mix for basically nothing. I think that can help us to keep a bit of perspective.

Even more reason not to draft KPD with a top 10 pick



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[Crow till I die]

Even more reason not to draft KPD with a top 10 pick



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seems so

 

[MrBarry]

Highlights what I have always thought, spending a top 10 pick on a KPD is idiotic.

You spend those picks on offensive/damaging players.

 

[Sanders]

no one would care about using a top 10 pick if he came as advertised

 

[jo172]

no one would care about using a top 10 pick if he came as advertised

This. Talia was worth every cent at 12

 

[Grenville]

Even more reason not to draft KPD with a top 10 pick



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In the past 14 seasons we've used our 1st round pick on a KPD 4 times (not counting sub 190cm Doedee as KPD). For a club that's found so many good + serviceable KPD late is hard to understand strategically.

 

[1990crow]

In the past 14 seasons we've used our 1st round pick on a KPD 4 times (not counting sub 190cm Doedee as KPD). For a club that's found so many good + serviceable KPD late is hard to understand strategically.

I don't have an issue with it if they develop into a top draft pick performance wise. Choose carefully, don't just pick one because Talia is close to the end.

 

[Grenville]

This. Talia was worth every cent at 12

Talia was a great player, one of my favourites. Truly Elite at his position - word is overused here, but genuinely fits in this case.
Also recognise that in part the success of some of our other tall defenders has been off the back of working with Talia and Rutten before him.

But if we could have picked up a player that we developed to be lets say 90% as good in the rookie draft (Rutten/Bock/Butts) and used that pick 12 on a quality mid it makes us a better team.

 

[Grenville]

no one would care about using a top 10 pick if he came as advertised

Have seen you raise a good point on position value plenty of times when it relates to Rankine/Luko and completely agree. For me that position value is tied to not just its impact on the game, but also how easily replaced it is.. Isnt there enough data from past drafts to say that it applies to KPD also?

 

[Sanders]

Have seen you raise a good point on position value plenty of times when it relates to Rankine/Luko and completely agree. For me that position value is tied to not just its impact on the game, but also how easily replaced it is.. Isnt there enough data from past drafts to say that it applies to KPD also?

Position value matters and KPD have a strong intrinsic value.

 

[Grenville]

Position value matters and KPD have a strong intrinsic value.

It does in so much as having crap players at FB/CHB has a strong influence on the outcome of the game. Not disputing position importance.

I guess I'm looking at position value in terms of (importance + cost to adequately fill that position). On that basis is hard to feel good about spending a top 10 pick on a KPD even if they come as advertised unless youre overflowing with elite mids and key forwards.

 

[Sanders]

It does in so much as having crap players at FB/CHB has a strong influence on the outcome of the game. Not disputing position importance.

I guess I'm looking at position value in terms of (importance + cost to adequately fill that position). On that basis is hard to feel good about spending a top 10 pick on a KPD even if they come as advertised unless youre overflowing with elite mids and key forwards.

First of all you start with how important is the position - does it matter who fills it?

In this case yes, it matters very much that you have quality KPD.

Next is how hard is it to find? And I’d say very hard indeed. That we lucked (and it is luck) into a decent one at 39 in the rookie draft - around the 117th player chosen that year - shows how hard it is. Not how easy or common it is.

he doesn’t go at 117 across both drafts if it’s obvious that he will get there.

Uncertainty plays a huge role in valuing picks and positions, and therefore given the importance of the position you need to do more than hit and hope with fingers crossed to fill it.

Butts proves why teams use high picks, can’t leave it to chance.

 

[Grenville]

First of all you start with how important is the position - does it matter who fills it?

In this case yes, it matters very much that you have quality KPD.

Next is how hard is it to find? And I’d say very hard indeed. That we lucked (and it is luck) into a decent one at 39 in the rookie draft - around the 117th player chosen that year - shows how hard it is. Not how easy or common it is.

he doesn’t go at 117 across both drafts if it’s obvious that he will get there.

Uncertainty plays a huge role in valuing picks and positions, and therefore given the importance of the position you need to do more than hit and hope with fingers crossed to fill it.

Butts proves why teams use high picks, can’t leave it to chance.

Agreed on the 1st two.

Is certainly luck. But the frequency with which those dice rolls end up a hit with KPD is greater.
When you factor in the fail rate for talls taken early in the draft in general, then add in the failed forwards reinventing themselves as defenders, spending high picks on KPD just looks like a low percentage strategy unless you're set for mids & tall forwards.

 

[Southerntakeover]

First of all you start with how important is the position - does it matter who fills it?

In this case yes, it matters very much that you have quality KPD.

Next is how hard is it to find? And I’d say very hard indeed. That we lucked (and it is luck) into a decent one at 39 in the rookie draft - around the 117th player chosen that year - shows how hard it is. Not how easy or common it is.

he doesn’t go at 117 across both drafts if it’s obvious that he will get there.

Uncertainty plays a huge role in valuing picks and positions, and therefore given the importance of the position you need to do more than hit and hope with fingers crossed to fill it.

Butts proves why teams use high picks, can’t leave it to chance.

I tend to think the opposite.

It's generally not that difficult to find competent key defenders- it is significantly easier to find people who can play key defence competently than it is key forwards. Defence is where the guys that can't play forward end up, often with significant success.

We've historically been capable of finding key defenders with low resource expended, and there are quite often very good key defenders in the league who are low resource acquisitions- Harris Andrews is probably an example.

I can live with one at the back end of the first- I'm probably ok with the Talia and Davis territory provided you get the picks right, but I'd never spend pick 6 on one.

Edit: to be clear, I think your reasoning process is correct and you've identified the correct issue. I disagree on how hard is it to find, in the sense that I think it's a position where you are significantly more likely to be able to find very good starters in non-draft processes or late draft than you are other positions. Your likelihood of finding elite or even very good midfielders in rookie drafts is almost non-existent (weighted for how many there are)- key defenders? It's not unheard of.

 

[SellarStardom]

If Billy can, Fischer can

 

[Grenville]

If Billy can, Fischer can

long way to go before Billy is considered a success.

 

[Banrock]

Realistically, probably this year and next. This is his third year on the list, it's around the time you would expect a KPD to start to contribute at AFL level. If we get to the end of next year and he's still not demanding a starting spot, it will probably be time to throw in the towel.

Yes, it is his third year, but really this is his first full pre-season is it not. The first two pre-seasons have been compromised (Covid protocols, injury etc) and his first season (internal trials essentially) are have been interrupted.

Comparing to a standard KPD development i think this would allow more time to develop.

I watched the game against CD and although he didn't dominate i thought he controlled his opponent and provided some run and good disposal when the opportunity arose (that i didnt see from Davis or Borlase - terrible one step leaning back kicks that didn't hit a 15 m target)

 

[AFC979810]

Yes, it is his third year, but really this is his first full pre-season is it not. The first two pre-seasons have been compromised (Covid protocols, injury etc) and his first season (internal trials essentially) are have been interrupted.

Its going to be interesting to see the outcome of the 2019 & 2021 drafts and whether these players take a little longer due to the weirdness and restrictions of the league in 2020/2021.

 

[Southerntakeover]

This. Talia was worth every cent at 12

Don't disagree, if you nail it no one complaints.

Though the opportunity loss suffered depends on who you had next on your list on draft day. Without being too much of a hindsight warrior, if it was Nat Fyfe...

 

[jo172]

Don't disagree, if you nail it no one complaints.

Though the opportunity loss suffered depends on who you had next on your list on draft day. Without being too much of a hindsight warrior, if it was Nat Fyfe...

I think there's a bit in this though.

Unless there's a binary (say you've got pick one and there are three stand outs, a KPD, a KPF and an inside/outside midfielder) if you use a first rounder and get someone who goes on to get in the AA team, win a best and fairest and give a decade of quality football no one complains about the draft position.

 

[skam85]

Yes, it is his third year, but really this is his first full pre-season is it not. The first two pre-seasons have been compromised (Covid protocols, injury etc) and his first season (internal trials essentially) are have been interrupted.

Comparing to a standard KPD development i think this would allow more time to develop.

I watched the game against CD and although he didn't dominate i thought he controlled his opponent and provided some run and good disposal when the opportunity arose (that i didnt see from Davis or Borlase - terrible one step leaning back kicks that didn't hit a 15 m target)

All easy excuses for failure.

What about Nick Murray who was essentially plucked from a farm with one fewer AFL pre-seasons than McAsey and has already shown far more?

 

[skam85]

If Billy can, Fischer can

Elite BF username to failed top 10 pick correlation

 

[crowsarethebest]

I think the issue with Fischer is pretty much athleticism. You have to be quick (at least in a straight line) or jump well as a key back and unfortunately he doesn't seem to be much of a power athlete. I don't think spending a top 10 pick on a key back is an issue - it's just that it doesn't seem Fisch's game is translating that well to senior football. Compare him to a Grainger-Barass and Gibcus - both top 10 KPD picks and they look so much more promising as they both are very athletic.

 

[Wazzy36]

H

Yes, it is his third year, but really this is his first full pre-season is it not. The first two pre-seasons have been compromised (Covid protocols, injury etc) and his first season (internal trials essentially) are have been interrupted.

Comparing to a standard KPD development i think this would allow more time to develop.

I watched the game against CD and although he didn't dominate i thought he controlled his opponent and provided some run and good disposal when the opportunity arose (that i didnt see from Davis or Borlase - terrible one step leaning back kicks that didn't hit a 15 m target)

He was injured this preseason wasn’t he? I thought he had a leg injury, so he didn’t even have a full preseason.

 

[weekend at bernies]

lets not forget everyone wrote Dood off because he didn't play in his first couple years.