Tasmania Congratulations on Tassie License. Mens team to enter 2028. Womens team TBA. Other details TBA 3/5

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The presidents are struggling enough with going to 19. 24 is not going to happen for a very long time, if ever.
It'll happen if the AFL wants it. Every 12-15 years you could add another team and then follow up with a new team 3-5 years later. By the 2050s-60s, you'd have 24 teams. I think it's doable but we'll see.
 
I reckon we'll have some reasonable idea close to the official vote
There's always leaks or journo(s) that get inside info on stuff like this.

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Yes, once it closer to 14 or 15 club presidents in the yes camp, it will happen.
I suspect a couple will never vote yes but I suspect they will get well over 12 by time it comes to vote.
 
There are too many teams in Victoria, but that shouldn't be Tasmania's problem.

Perhaps if Tasmania gains entry there may be discussions about merging a couple of the weaker clubs? I think this is unlikely though, as the current AFL executive is comfortable with having 19 teams.
It’s been obvious for decades there’s to many Melbourne based clubs. Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon & Richmond should be massive clubs that dwarf West Coast but they’re not. West Coast are but shouldn’t be the biggest club in the comp.

***Could add Hawthorn to that list
 
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It’s been obvious for decades there’s to many Melbourne based clubs. Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon & Richmond should be massive clubs that dwarf West Coast but they’re not. West Coast are but shouldn’t be the biggest club in the comp.
4 Vic, 2 WA, 2 SA, 1 NSW/ACT, 1 QLD, 1 TAS, 1 NT/NQLD. 12 teams, 22 rounds. Would've been perfect. Tassie and NT/NQLD would obviously enter later given the smaller populations, but right now it could've been a 10-team super competition.
 
His just shown how you deal with a government in a smart and professional manner and managed to get a team started from scratch and a stadium sorted in less then two years a good effort when compared to the absolute sham of a process the afl have ran to date

which is easy to do if you dont answer to anyone else. Its not how large associations with boards operate professionally.
 
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4 Vic, 2 WA, 2 SA, 1 NSW/ACT, 1 QLD, 1 TAS, 1 NT/NQLD. 12 teams, 22 rounds. Would've been perfect. Tassie and NT/NQLD would obviously enter later given the smaller populations, but right now it could've been a 10-team super competition.
The ship has sailed. It’s to late. The worst thing for expansion was allowing a state league to become the premier national league. Their allegiance was and will be to that state. If it was the SANFL we’d have the same problem.
 
4 Vic, 2 WA, 2 SA, 1 NSW/ACT, 1 QLD, 1 TAS, 1 NT/NQLD. 12 teams, 22 rounds. Would've been perfect. Tassie and NT/NQLD would obviously enter later given the smaller populations, but right now it could've been a 10-team super competition.
People are always happy to come up with solutions to 'problems', so long as they don't affect their own club.

The only reason your club has survived 30 years is because of some of those clubs you're trying to kill.
 
People are always happy to come up with solutions to 'problems', so long as they don't affect their own club.

The only reason your club has survived 30 years is because of some of those clubs you're trying to kill.
I said, "would've been." Past tense. Too late now. Should've happened back in 86 when the VFL was on its knees.
 
4 Vic, 2 WA, 2 SA, 1 NSW/ACT, 1 QLD, 1 TAS, 1 NT/NQLD. 12 teams, 22 rounds. Would've been perfect. Tassie and NT/NQLD would obviously enter later given the smaller populations, but right now it could've been a 10-team super competition.
This does not deal with reality that Victoria produces well over 50% of the players for league on it's own and where most of the football loving population live.
You could have probably made a case for 6 Vics clubs in 12 and almost get away with it but in reality at best it would have been 7 of 12 which only leaves 5 slots for clubs in the ideal 12 club league. So if you have 2 from WA, 2 from SA, 1 from Tassie it just does not leave anything left for the non-traditional football states. Mind you, I would not have been to upset with that type of path and then expand to 14 clubs a little later but it still means our fixation of 12 clubs the ideal number for 22 rounds broken soon after. So anyway, you look at it, the numbers do not work and you have to approach it with different thinking in mind. If you thinking of expansion and non traditional football states the AFL approach of a game every weekend in NSW and Queensland is not flawed. Which means at minimum you have 2 clubs from those respective states which is what we have now. You have to accept the 12 team model just does not fit expansion and work with different model. 16 team model with 8 in two equal groups for home and away would have been a decent model where each group plays two teams in their own group ladder and one team in the other group in the 22 rounds, no byes and then top four from each ladder qualify for the final 8 series for the whole league. That never happened and 16 teams all stayed on the one ladder. But if you did have the next best model you still have the club distribution numbers not work out ideally. If 8 Vic clubs, you might get away with it but once again, 2 from WA, 2 from SA, 2 from NSW, 2 from Queensland and 1 from Tassie is over 16 teams and only 7 Vic clubs of 16 also does not make sense to , if you try that because then, once again, you have less Vic clubs that level of players produced here and crowd going capacity. So that model also breaks down too. We probably have to look at 20 teams or 24 and we nowhere near ready for 24 with not enough player talent produced overall to justify.
So I think the model closest to best overall is probably 20 and you revisit a similar model to if you tried 16 of two ladders during home and away season. 10 in one group and 10 in the other and you have to five from each advance to a final 10.
The 20 teams is ok in terms of 10 Vic clubs at present fits but deciding where that 20 licence is from is up for debate for some time and for now I think moving to 19 with Tassie for a decade is the right move before deciding on 20th licence.

The maths of current 18 team league is 20 weekends of 9 matches and 3 weekends of 6 matches which has every club have one bye. We then have one weekend more which been using for weekend before finals which is not ideal to have a weekend with no football at all but has allowed a kind of second bye for clubs and players. With 19 teams the maths of fixture probably is 17 weekends with 9 matches and 7 weekends with 8 matches and no pre-finals weekend of no matches at all. You probably play the first 13 weekends with 9 matches each weekend and one club on bye and then next 7 weekends have 3 teams on a bye each weekend and following weekend two of those teams open the next round on a Thursday night. Last four weekends on final straight before finals start you back to one team on a bye. By the time you at finals time, every club had two byes during the season.
Basically every round you would start on Thursday night and if it the weekend after one team had a bye, that team starts the Thursday match against some team that played the Friday night before. No stress for AFLPA for 5 days between games.

I think this is where we heading at least until late 2030's.
 
I just personally think it's wrong for Tassie, ACT, and NT to never have teams. NT doesn't have the population but they will eventually, but I get not having them yet, but Tassie and Canberra have a strong case for both being good to go now. 21 teams, 21 rounds, 1 bye, everyone plays once, reverse all fixtures the following year. Victoria would only have slightly less than 50% of all teams, I think you can live with that. I doubt Nth Qld, Newcastle etc will ever be interested in footy and while you could have a third team in WA and SA it's not necessary.
 
I just personally think it's wrong for Tassie, ACT, and NT to never have teams. NT doesn't have the population but they will eventually, but I get not having them yet, but Tassie and Canberra have a strong case for both being good to go now. 21 teams, 21 rounds, 1 bye, everyone plays once, reverse all fixtures the following year. Victoria would only have slightly less than 50% of all teams, I think you can live with that. I doubt Nth Qld, Newcastle etc will ever be interested in footy and while you could have a third team in WA and SA it's not necessary.
I just do not buy the ACT part in particular. The population just does not justify it. Places like Bendigo have a much better case. NT has too much problems of the seasons are so different and population and crowd capacity far from ideal. No, at present adding Tassie and settle on 19 for next decade and a bit is the best way forward and work out the ideal 20th licence after that. It tough enough to make Suns viable without trying to add teams from little population area of ACT and NT.
 
I just do not buy the ACT part in particular. The population just does not justify it. Places like Bendigo have a much better case. NT has too much problems of the seasons are so different and population and crowd capacity far from ideal. No, at present adding Tassie and settle on 19 for next decade and a bit is the best way forward and work out the ideal 20th licence after that. It tough enough to make Suns viable without trying to add teams from little population area of ACT and NT.
Wouldn’t call ACT a little population area and certainly not the large number of people that live within an hour of Canberra. Better option than Newcastle that’s for sure. But yeah, no rush for team 20, the fixture will work fine with 19 teams. NT if they had the population in the distant future could be viable if they find somewhere else to play their early season games during wet season. Closed roof stadium with cold rooms will take care of the rest.

In any case, I don’t think the competition ever needs to expand beyond 21 teams and we certainly don’t need another Victorian team added to the mix. Might as well send North to Bendigo and the Dogs to Ballarat if you want representation there.
 
I just personally think it's wrong for Tassie, ACT, and NT to never have teams. NT doesn't have the population but they will eventually, but I get not having them yet, but Tassie and Canberra have a strong case for both being good to go now. 21 teams, 21 rounds, 1 bye, everyone plays once, reverse all fixtures the following year. Victoria would only have slightly less than 50% of all teams, I think you can live with that. I doubt Nth Qld, Newcastle etc will ever be interested in footy and while you could have a third team in WA and SA it's not necessary.
NT can't work with only 246,500 people in the whole state and only 132,045 in Darwin. Even with 550,000, Tassie only becomes a safe choice with a large percentage of 'fanatical' footy fans and a bit of government assistance. The ACT population is also under 500,000 and not all of them follow footy.
 

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Wouldn’t call ACT a little population area and certainly not the large number of people that live within an hour of Canberra. Better option than Newcastle that’s for sure. But yeah, no rush for team 20, the fixture will work fine with 19 teams
Yeah, it might be harsh to say it a little population. Not been there since mid 90's but my impression is in terms of sport going for AFL it not a big enough crowd puller or far away from Sydney to justify another team there any time soon. They get a few games of AFL to service the few footy lovers there at moment. If in 20 years time, we bedded down well with 19 teams and football grows there, maybe, but even then it has to outstrip other places for football that may have better cases by then. Hence , let us move to Tassie with 19 and settle down Suns and second team we already have in NSW until mid 2030's at minimum, before looking at any cases for a 20th licence.
 
NT can't work with only 246,500 people in the whole state and only 132,045 in Darwin. Even with 550,000, Tassie only becomes a safe choice with a large percentage of 'fanatical' footy fans and a bit of government assistance. The ACT population is also under 500,000 and not all of them follow footy.
There was only 500k or so people living in the Gold Coast when they came in. ACT might hit 500k by 2030, with more footy followers per capita than GC. I think it’s possible then. Darwin won’t need 500k, Geelong doesn’t and they’re just as footy mad as them. It’s worth looking at come the 2040s.
 
Yeah, it might be harsh to say it a little population. Not been there since mid 90's but my impression is in terms of sport going for AFL it not a big enough crowd puller or far away from Sydney to justify another team there any time soon. They get a few games of AFL to service the few footy lovers there at moment. If in 20 years time, we bedded down well with 19 teams and football grows there, maybe, but even then it has to outstrip other places for football that may have better cases by then. Hence , let us move to Tassie with 19 and settle down Suns and second team we already have in NSW until mid 2030's at minimum, before looking at any cases for a 20th licence.
Sounds fine to me. Tassie in 2025-8 and then give the competition a decade to breathe before we add team 20 in 2035-8. See how the Suns, Giants, Tassie, and small Vic clubs are going. It’s pointless to look too far ahead.
 
There was only 500k or so people living in the Gold Coast when they came in. ACT might hit 500k by 2030, with more footy followers per capita than GC. I think it’s possible then. Darwin won’t need 500k, Geelong doesn’t and they’re just as footy mad as them. It’s worth looking at come the 2040s.
I think Canberra is definitely next in line when the time comes.

Personally I think a toned down version of Fat Ed's Tasmania joint venture proposal (no 22 home games bs because that's not fair) works much better for NT than us. Eventually, we could achieve a truly national comp with a 20th team based in Canberra and the "North Kangaroos" splitting home games between Darwin, Alice Springs and Melbourne.
 
The Age’s anonymous survey of clubs has six supporting Tas as team 19, five wanting more info, four wanting a relocation and one NO. Two clubs did not reply.
 
I think Canberra is definitely next in line when the time comes.

Personally I think a toned down version of Fat Ed's Tasmania joint venture proposal (no 22 home games bs because that's not fair) works much better for NT than us. Eventually, we could achieve a truly national comp with a 20th team based in Canberra and the "North Kangaroos" splitting home games between Darwin, Alice Springs and Melbourne.
The problem is North won't want to move, ever, and it's up to them. And if they did become a NT/Vic hybrid club, I'd love to see them change colours to the red, black, and gold. Keep the kangaroo logo and only slightly change the club song. It can't be too similar to North Melbourne or it just wouldn't feel right.

Or again, expand at maximum to 21 teams - if NT can't work on their own, perhaps try a combined team with Nth Qld, playing a few games up there. 21 teams, 21 rounds. Tassie by 2025-8, Canberra by 2035-8, NT/NQLD 10-25 years after that.
 
Sounds fine to me. Tassie in 2025-8 and then give the competition a decade to breathe before we add team 20 in 2035-8. See how the Suns, Giants, Tassie, and small Vic clubs are going. It’s pointless to look too far ahead.
The next thing that crosses my mind with 19 teams in league soon, is if we should adopt a final 10 series , which has a lot of plusses in terms of teams in bottom half of ladder have a bit more to play for than they do with final 8 but how logistically do we find another week in the football season?
I think it already stretched the weekend we start in terms of access to venues still ending the official cricket season.
Adelaide Oval, SCG, Gabba and MCG and maybe Perth not viable a week earlier than we already start.
You need 5 weeks with a final 10 series or five weeks if you have the wildcard round weekend of 7 v 10 and 8 v 9 after the home and away season ends. That extra week of football probably means a week earlier than we already start the AFL season.

The only way I think that could be is to have Giants, Gold Coast, Geelong, Tassie and 4 teams from Docklands play home games in round one so no use of cricket venues for round one and both SA clubs start with a bye and one of Eagles or Freo on bye and the other away game in round one.
Probably able to be done but maybe not ideal start to football season. However, AFL may see it as worth it as NRL already gets a free weekend without AFL already in March. That taken away may be enough of a decider for AFL to do it.
 
The Age’s anonymous survey of clubs has six supporting Tas as team 19, five wanting more info, four wanting a relocation and one NO. Two clubs did not reply.
"One club boss suspected the AFL had positioned the process so that if the bid did not succeed, the clubs 'would have blood on their hands'"

Sorry AFL that's not going to work :embarrassedv1:
 
The problem is North won't want to move, ever, and it's up to them. And if they did become a NT/Vic hybrid club, I'd love to see them change colours to the red, black, and gold. Keep the kangaroo logo and only slightly change the club song. It can't be too similar to North Melbourne or it just wouldn't feel right.

Or again, expand at maximum to 21 teams - if NT can't work on their own, perhaps try a combined team with Nth Qld, playing a few games up there. 21 teams, 21 rounds. Tassie by 2025-8, Canberra by 2035-8, NT/NQLD 10-25 years after that.
No I'm not suggesting they move. Neither was Fat Ed.

My thinking is they move their Hobart home games (and possibly a couple more) to the NT, and run an academy up there. They'd still base themselves at Arden St, keep their guernsey and colours, but be known as North Kangaroos instead of North Melbourne Kangaroos.

It's pretty much the same arrangement they have with Tas currently, with the name change added to give the NT a sense of joint ownership over the team which Tassie never got, which resulted in a lot of resentment towards North down here and made it feel like they were just milking us for money and didn't really care about Tasmania.
 
No I'm not suggesting they move. Neither was Fat Ed.

My thinking is they move their Hobart home games (and possibly a couple more) to the NT, and run an academy up there. They'd still base themselves at Arden St, keep their guernsey and colours, but be known as North Kangaroos instead of North Melbourne Kangaroos.

It's pretty much the same arrangement they have with Tas currently, with the name change added to give the NT a sense of joint ownership over the team which Tassie never got, which resulted in a lot of resentment towards North down here and made it feel like they were just milking us for money and didn't really care about Tasmania.
Hmm, yeah nah, I'd prefer NT have their own team eventually. There's no reason why we can't have 21 teams in 30-40 years time.
 
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