Opinion Is Our Flag Window Shut?

[Topkent]

Was interesting OTC had the 'premiership window' tonight looking at attack vs defence and we're well and truly smashing it in attack but below average in defence. Obviously a small sample size but wouldn't have thought that.

I'd have no evidence to back this up but feels like it's easier to fix defence midway through a year than attack

 

[Topkent]

Can't pretend like the last 19 games arent important but then still speak of us as a premiership side then. We are a middle of the road side across the course of a season almost now.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Can't pretend like the last 19 games arent important but then still speak of us as a premiership side then. We are a middle of the road side across the course of a season almost now.




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I think this is pretty easy to explain. Our defence is set up - both personnel and tactics wise - to defend slow, long-kicking ball movement.
From middle of last year onwards all the good sides are playing fast, attacking ball movement.

Our midfield doesn't apply enough pressure when we lose the contests and our personnel down back is not quite right to counter agile forwards with the ball coming in quickly.

 

[Topkent]

I think this is pretty easy to explain. Our defence is set up - both personnel and tactics wise - to defend slow, long-kicking ball movement.
From middle of last year onwards all the good sides are playing fast, attacking ball movement.

Our midfield doesn't apply enough pressure when we lose the contests and our personnel down back is not quite right to counter agile forwards with the ball coming in quickly.

I agree completely with that, we like a deep defence with an extra number but it seems like a pro active outnumber in the midfield defence is the best type now. When we lose it's never teams getting in behind us, it's having free guys 30-50 out because they've moved it quick and our defence drops back and leaves short options.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

I agree completely with that, we like a deep defence with an extra number but it seems like a pro active outnumber in the midfield defence is the best type now. When we lose it's never teams getting in behind us, it's having free guys 30-50 out because they've moved it quick and our defence drops back and leaves short options.

Collingwood aren't exactly keeping their opposition to tiny scores but their overall game is clearly the best. Whenever the opposition gets out the front of the stoppage they always seem to have players coming up and sticking the tackle, over and over until they turn it over. We've got very little of that happening.

 

[Topkent]

Collingwood aren't exactly keeping their opposition to tiny scores but their overall game is clearly the best. Whenever the opposition gets out the front of the stoppage they always seem to have players coming up and sticking the tackle, over and over until they turn it over. We've got very little of that happening.

Think the main thing Collingwoods style does is it's impossible to keep momentum against them because they're always one turnover away from scoring.

 

[Johnny Karate]

I think this thread is a bit reactive off what was probably our worst performance for at least 3 years. I understand where the concerns are coming from, and I share some of them myself, but I'll put forward the optimistic case just to balance out some of the doom on here.

Firstly, projecting our formline back into last season is silly. Geelong supporters wouldn't be rating their team as premiership favourites now on the basis of their having won their last 16 games of last season, and I think the problems we faced last year aren't necessarily applicable this year. For starters, we looked fatigued last year, even when we were winning, and we often got overrun in the second halves of games. This year, if anything, we're closing out games much better than we're starting them. Last year, we were playing a slow, grindy and very predictable style of football, whereas this year it's clear that we're attempting to play a much more aggressive, free-flowing style. Such a change in style can take time to learn, and so it stands to reason that we're going to have games like Saturday while players are getting used to their new defensive duties. It might look like they're not putting in the effort defensively, but it may be more that they're still finding their feet in striking the right balance between attack and defence. We all called for a change in game style after last season, and we might just be witnessing the birth pangs of that right now. (Remember: Geelong started 5-4 with their new attacking style last year, dropping some really poor and unconvincing games in that stretch.)

I think guys like McDonald, Tomlinson and Melksham are on borrowed time, but each of them have shown glimpses of form this year which justified their selection Saturday, and Goodwin has shown that he's prepared to drop each of them when they're not performing (I'd even say Tomlinson was unlucky to be dropped after round 2). I'd be disappointed if they aren't replaced later in the season, and I'd like to see guys like Turner and Howes get a chance at some point in the year, but their selection has hardly been without basis. Goodwin's also shown a willingness to run more guys through the midfield, another adjustment that might take time to bear fruit as they learn to consistently do what is expected of them. We've also had to make adjustments around the absence of May, Gawn, and Lever this year - all important players in terms of structure - which doesn't come easily. Of course, we shouldn't be so dependent on particular players, but that's why it's good to learn how to play without them now rather than at the end of the year. And some players are out of form at the moment, which might be cause for concern, but the optimistic flipside of that is that even with the injuries and out-of-form players, we still managed big wins against the Dogs and Sydney, which has to count for something.

I'd also stop over-romanticising our form in the premiership year. Yes, we always played with heart and effort in that year, and no that wasn't on display vs. Essendon, but we also showed some pretty iffy and streaky form during that year too. Honestly, take a look at our games from Queen's birthday until the finals, and tell me in which of those games we stood out as overwhelming premiership favourites? Seeing our game plan effortlessly picked apart by Collingwood, Hawthorn and GWS of all teams? Being fairly comprehensively beaten by premiership contenders in the Bulldogs? Being 44 points down against Geelong, before they inexplicably stopped trying to score? If we're being honest with ourselves, if Mitch Hannan kdoes anything else with that free-kick than to handball directly at Bailey Dale's feet, then we might have lost the grand final too. Every premiership team has s**t moments, most of them many times during a season. We just had one against Essendon, but writing us off on the back of that would be as stupid as proclaiming us premiership favourites on the back of the win against Sydney. Which game represents the real 2023 Melbourne and which one was a fluke? We're probably not gonna know that for a few months.

Good points overall.

However, I don’t think it was an overreaction to one poor performance. Even if we scratch the Essendon loss, the Brisbane game was heading for a wipeout before the power outage saved our blushes. I also don’t think you can completely wipe last year’s form given the core of the side is the same and it shows a level of inconsistency over quite a long period of time. I don’t think that I’ve over romanticised the premiership other than to say the gap between our best and worst was narrower.


I also don’t think it’s necessarily doom to suggest this group’s tilt might be over. Despite an embarrassing finish to 2018, we’d had a really good year and looked to have busted open a flag window but it took two years of pain and a lot of shifts among the playing group for us to be up there again. In 2018, Viney was seen as arguably our most important mid, Brayshaw finished 3rd in the Brownlow as an onballer, Harmes looked to be emerging as one of the better taggers in the league, T McDonald kicked 53 goals after missing the first few games, Hogan had a great start to the season, Weideman was exciting in the finals, Jones, Melksham and Jetta were still important role players, Frost and O McDonald were our key defenders, Petracca was a bit a fat half forward flanker. Apart from Gawn and Oliver, that team had to go through a lot of evolution to get near the point of contending again. It’s possible we’re in a similar boat now.

 

[Bluelegs]

Good points overall.

However, I don’t think it was an overreaction to one poor performance. Even if we scratch the Essendon loss, the Brisbane game was heading for a wipeout before the power outage saved our blushes. I also don’t think you can completely wipe last year’s form given the core of the side is the same and it shows a level of inconsistency over quite a long period of time. I don’t think that I’ve over romanticised the premiership other than to say the gap between our best and worst was narrower.


I also don’t think it’s necessarily doom to suggest this group’s tilt might be over. Despite an embarrassing finish to 2018, we’d had a really good year and looked to have busted open a flag window but it took two years of pain and a lot of shifts among the playing group for us to be up there again. In 2018, Viney was seen as arguably our most important mid, Brayshaw finished 3rd in the Brownlow as an onballer, Harmes looked to be emerging as one of the better taggers in the league, T McDonald kicked 53 goals after missing the first few games, Hogan had a great start to the season, Weideman was exciting in the finals, Jones, Melksham and Jetta were still important role players, Frost and O McDonald were our key defenders, Petracca was a bit a fat half forward flanker. Apart from Gawn and Oliver, that team had to go through a lot of evolution to get near the point of contending again. It’s possible we’re in a similar boat now.

I would just question what you mean by this group? We have a pretty varied mix of age brackets in our core. Petracca, Oliver, Lever, Fritsch all have plenty of football left, Petty too, even though he's currently struggling with form he's got the talent in him.

The closest to retirement would be May, Gawn, Viney, and to a lesser extent Grundy. Our other aging players in Tmac, Brown, Hibberd and Melksham are all basically on the fringes as we speak.

We've also drafted to prepare for life after our current key forwards. We might be in a bit of a waning phase but a decent couple of drafts can totally remake the club.

So even if the window is arguably shut right now, it's not like we're at a 'youth policy/5 year plan stage.

 

[Johnny Karate]

I would just question what you mean by this group? We have a pretty varied mix of age brackets in our core. Petracca, Oliver, Lever all have plenty of football left, Petty too, even though he's currently struggling with form he's got the talent in him.

The closest to retirement would be May, Gawn, Viney, and to a lesser extent Grundy. Our other aging players in Tmac, Brown, Hibberd and Melksham are all and basically on the fringes as we speak.

We've also drafted to prepare for life after our current key forwards. We might be in a bit of a waning phase but a decent couple of drafts can totally remake the club.

So even if the window is arguably shut right now, it's not like we're at a 'youth policy/5 year plan stage.

I guess much like 2018 with Gawn and Oliver, you’d hope that Oliver and Petracca would still be around and producing at a high level. Beyond those two, a lot might change. We certainly need more stepping up to that star/AA level player for us to get there again whether it’s this year or in another 3-4 years time.

 

[djpaulydemon]

Collingwood aren't exactly keeping their opposition to tiny scores but their overall game is clearly the best. Whenever the opposition gets out the front of the stoppage they always seem to have players coming up and sticking the tackle, over and over until they turn it over. We've got very little of that happening.

Definitely. Consistency in tackling and pressure is so key. It opens up our ball movement so much and if we get good pressure and decisive ball movement from our intercept defenders we can look really good.

 

[markm106]

The premiership window isn’t shut. But we’ll need some things to go right. Just like every premier. Get players fit and firing for an end of season tilt. We’ve had quite a few injuries over the last 19 games and particularly last year we played too many injured players.
I think Goody has focused on improving offence this year and as a consequence defence may have suffered. Gawn and Lever are pretty key to defence and showed on the weekend. I’m not writing us off. Players like Clarry Trac and Gawn don’t come around too often and we need to make the most of it.

 

[Topkent]

Soon as you start blaming injuries or mentioning them

We didn't fall apart in second halves last year due to injury, we didn't get flogged this year because of injury. Essendon didn't even have their best key forward

 

[pjfairbairn]

I'm really torn on Petty. I can what he would bring up forward as an alternative to TMac/BBB, but at the same time we have Jefferson coming through who has started better than expected and could realistically be in a first choice forward line with JVR and Fritta by Rd 1 2025. Maysie is coming towards the back end and we don't have any top end defensive talent, and we have so little faith in Tomlinson, that I just wonder whether we are better keeping Petty down back for the long term. Maybe Disco Turner needs a chance - is this Tomlinson's last year on contract?

 

[Topkent]

I'm really torn on Petty. I can what he would bring up forward as an alternative to TMac/BBB, but at the same time we have Jefferson coming through who has started better than expected and could realistically be in a first choice forward line with JVR and Fritta by Rd 1 2025. Maysie is coming towards the back end and we don't have any top end defensive talent, and we have so little faith in Tomlinson, that I just wonder whether we are better keeping Petty down back for the long term. Maybe Disco Turner needs a chance - is this Tomlinson's last year on contract?

You don't throw Petty back hoping it might work for 2025. We are trying to win this year

 

[markm106]

Soon as you start blaming injuries or mentioning them

We didn't fall apart in second halves last year due to injury, we didn't get flogged this year because of injury. Essendon didn't even have their best key forward

Call it blaming injuries or whatever. But fact is we had about half the selected team undergo fitness tests in the finals. We were cooked and Goody never changed things up during the year so we had to go with those blokes. He also smashed the same blokes week in week out through the middle. He’s made adjustments to that. Although the weekend we slipped back into that. We certainly weren’t as fit or hungry as last year. Get everyone fit and firing heading into the end of the year and we’ll have a massive crack.

 

[Topkent]

Call it blaming injuries or whatever. But fact is we had about half the selected team undergo fitness tests in the finals. We were cooked and Goody never changed things up during the year so we had to go with those blokes. He also smashed the same blokes week in week out through the middle. He’s made adjustments to that. Although the weekend we slipped back into that. We certainly weren’t as fit or hungry as last year. Get everyone fit and firing heading into the end of the year and we’ll have a massive crack.

Yep let's pretend the finals was an outlier and we weren't crap for half the year before that

 

[Topkent]

Sydney and Brissy were 100% sucks we were the only team in the AFL with injuries

 

[markm106]

Yep let's pretend the finals was an outlier and we weren't crap for half the year before that

I literally said we were not as fit or hungry as 2021. And we were absolutely cooked come finals. Despite finishing second.

 

[schmuttt]

Yeah I don’t think markm106 is blaming luck with injuries he’s talking about our lack of squad rotation in 2022 costing us. Literally didn’t have a single debutant last year.

Geelong were 5-3 last year and had losses to the saints and hawks in there. If we hit the bye with a positive W/L and a fit list anything’s possible, but I’ll caveat that by saying the next 4 games (Richmond north suns hawks) are non negotiables. Haven’t won more than 2 in a row since r10 2022, if we can’t string those four together we are ****ed.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Essendon didn't even have their best key forward

Youre talking about Weid.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I'm really torn on Petty. I can what he would bring up forward as an alternative to TMac/BBB, but at the same time we have Jefferson coming through who has started better than expected and could realistically be in a first choice forward line with JVR and Fritta by Rd 1 2025. Maysie is coming towards the back end and we don't have any top end defensive talent, and we have so little faith in Tomlinson, that I just wonder whether we are better keeping Petty down back for the long term. Maybe Disco Turner needs a chance - is this Tomlinson's last year on contract?

Petty is perfect to do the dirty and grunt work up the ground as a forward, I mean you'd still rotate JVR and Petty but the split would be more 70/30 with JVR spending 70% deep. TMac and Brown are useless in this role.

Disco has to be given a chance in defense.

 

[schmuttt]

Petty is perfect to do the dirty and grunt work up the ground as a forward, I mean you'd still rotate JVR and Petty but the split would be more 70/30 with JVR spending 70% deep. TMac and Brown are useless in this role.

Disco has to be given a chance in defense.

Yep. Petty is there to do grunt work up and down the ground, if he kicks a goal a game I’d be fine with that contribution.

 

[pjfairbairn]

I take the points re: 2025, and re: Petty's role up forward - I also think he is a very good tall defender when in form, and can play a key role against a team with three key forwards. Main outlier is trying to establish whether Turner is capable of coming in and having an impact and I agree with all that we need to know that sooner rather than later.

 

[Topkent]

I take the points re: 2025, and re: Petty's role up forward - I also think he is a very good tall defender when in form, and can play a key role against a team with three key forwards. Main outlier is trying to establish whether Turner is capable of coming in and having an impact and I agree with all that we need to know that sooner rather than later.

Played back last week so we had 3 key defenders and it didn't matter. Can't play him back just in case the 3rd key tall gets a hold of us, if that's happening there's so much more wrong in the game

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

No point being scared of the three tall forwards, im willing to put last weeks game down as an outlier until proven otherwise, more often than not a tall forward set up ends up like the mess the Dogs had in round 1 against us.

None of this will happen, ive got no doubt predictable Goody keeps Petty back and for some bizarre reason believes TMac and Brown can play the tall forward role just as well.