Play Nice The NM Devils Chessboard thread.

[Kangaroos4eva]

Some context on the disparity:


And logistics:


From a pure military standpoint, and assuming the reports are mostly accurate, it is a giant risk relying on an unknown of mobilising localised popular support and for military rank and file deserting to join him. That is one of the reasons why the Munich putsch failed so badly and so quickly.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Not confirmed, so a massive grain of salt.






I can't make out the unit insignias, but there appears to be a combination of military and private (likely commandeered) logistics, fuel and transport vehicles moving somewhere past a checkpoint manned by no more than a dozen men.

 

[Chadwiko]

From a pure military standpoint, and assuming the reports are mostly accurate, it is a giant risk relying on an unknown of mobilising localised popular support and for military rank and file deserting to join him. That is one of the reasons why the Munich putsch failed so badly and so quickly.

From what I've read, and fully acknowledging this is still an emerging and dynamic situation, PWC don't seem to want to take down Russia/Putin/the entire country. They seem specifically aggrieved at the General/s leading the invasion, and essentially want to oust them to take it over themselves. That's why they're targeting Rostov-on-Don, as that is (apparently) the main supply hub for the Russian forces in Ukraine.

 

[Chadwiko]

Meanwhile, and like so much of this, this is not confirmed accurate;

Russians in Moscow are waking up to the sight of military vehicles patrolling around key POIs:

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Again, unverified open-source, so grain of salt:

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Meanwhile, and like so much of this, this is not confirmed accurate;

Russians in Moscow are waking up to the sight of military vehicles patrolling around key POIs:

View attachment 1720652

There are unverified videos of APCs and temporary defences being deployed in Moscow.

Additional unconfirmed reports of Spetznatz raiding Wagner HQ in St Petersburg.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

From what I've read, and fully acknowledging this is still an emerging and dynamic situation, PWC don't seem to want to take down Russia/Putin/the entire country. They seem specifically aggrieved at the General/s leading the invasion, and essentially want to oust them to take it over themselves. That's why they're targeting Rostov-on-Don, as that is (apparently) the main supply hub for the Russian forces in Ukraine.

There's a few good twitter threads on it atm, like below. Carniege experts often produce very good analysis.

Worth remembering that Wagner's leadership doesn't have any real pull in Moscow or the major urban centres (the primary basis of Putin's power base) and Wagner have no real troop presence in the major urban centres. Which is obviously not ideal if you are wanting to launch a successful national coup. You need to secure the transport, government, energy, military, police, political and communication hubs for a successful coup and you need a lot of manpower to do that. As you said, there is a lot to play out, but I think this 'rebellion' will be crushed fairly swiftly in conventional military terms.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Both unverified

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Finally, some tank action...

 

[Del191229]

...?

Wagner Group supposedly moving towards Moscow would have zero impact on the readiness of air defenses in Kyiv?

You are (or used to be) smart enough to know this. But instead you seem mainly interested in ultimately being 'right' about your conservative-adjacent pro-Russian contrarian takes.

You'd be making Tucker Carlson proud, which is ironic since you're both failed journalists.

How long does it take to drive from Rostov to Moscow ... and how many armies have ever managed to make it to Moscow successfully lol.

Keep up the Slava Ukraini stuff bro, it was cringe AF last year, and its just tragic now, but it still makes a few people feel good.

BTW - how are the moderate rebels in Syria going?

 

[Del191229]

Both unverified

Those people have as much idea what is happening as we do, no point posting their tweets and vids.

 

[Del191229]

From what I've read, and fully acknowledging this is still an emerging and dynamic situation, PWC don't seem to want to take down Russia/Putin/the entire country. They seem specifically aggrieved at the General/s leading the invasion, and essentially want to oust them to take it over themselves. That's why they're targeting Rostov-on-Don, as that is (apparently) the main supply hub for the Russian forces in Ukraine.

EMERGING AND DYNAMIC lolololol

 

[ferball]

This would be a bit like Erik Prince taking on the US in the middle of the Iraq war. Hard to believe its anything other than a staged event. And its a good time to stage this sort of event if you think you can con your opposition into attacking when they should regroup.

Of course it could be exactly what it seems like on the surface but if its meant to convince the Ukrainians there is massive internal conflict in the Russian forces then there's no way we're gonna see thru it by reading stuff off twitter.

 

[Chadwiko]

How long does it take to drive from Rostov to Moscow ... and how many armies have ever managed to make it to Moscow successfully lol.

Keep up the Slava Ukraini stuff bro, it was cringe AF last year, and its just tragic now, but it still makes a few people feel good.

BTW - how are the moderate rebels in Syria going?

Fully admit I mis-spoke when I said Moscow there. Meant to say 'moving towards Rostov'.

Regardless, changing the topic and shifting the goal-posts is always a surefire sign that you're doing great in this debate, right buddy?

Especially since I never said shit about "moderate rebels in Syria" lol.

But hey, to give you credit; your current attempt to divert attention away from your embarrassing first-take in this thread this morning about this new Wagner group situation is funny to watch.

 

[Del191229]

Real talk.

Here's some options as to what's going on. Noting several can be going on at once, or are in different stages of happening

- This has been staged to get Ukranian leadership to start talking and comms networks to light up for a decapitation strike. That the Russians have launched a huge missile strike tonight is telling. And they also warned very clearly this week that any attack on Crimean with Western weapons would be met with a response targeting the Ukranian political leadership. Ukraine hit Crimean bridges with Storm Shadows this week. Likelihood: VERY HIGH

- This is cover for major troop movements, including Wagner, ahead of a Russian counter-counter offensive. Only the Ukranians (and Nazis lol) announce major ops and troops movements in advance. Russia is hardly going to announce that having blunted the counter offensive in the south, they're now going to attack through the northern fronts are they? This is a good way to disguise major troops movements, especially by Wagner. Likelihood: VERY HIGH

- That despite having easily blunted the much vaunted Ukranian counter offensive in recent weeks, and having come through the Western sanctions with very little economic damage, suddenly the Russian home front is collapsing. The only evidence is claims from a serial liar and provocateur in Prigozhin who pulls these stunts re fights with Shoigu regularly, crap off Telegram and some grainy videos of trucks on roads. But no, in this scenarion Wagner is marching on Moscow, and will achieve what Hitler and Napoleon couldn't, despite the fact that if there really were an insurrection, it would be instantly shredded by the dozens of KA-52s in the area. Likelihood: So miniscule as to be laughable.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Chadwiko]

RE: those recent videos in Rostov...

Likelihood: So miniscule as to be laughable.

 

[Del191229]

This would be a bit like Erik Prince taking on the US in the middle of the Iraq war. Hard to believe its anything other than a staged event. And its a good time to stage this sort of event if you think you can con your opposition into attacking when they should regroup.

Of course it could be exactly what it seems like on the surface but if its meant to convince the Ukrainians there is massive internal conflict in the Russian forces then there's no way we're gonna see thru it by reading stuff off twitter.

The idea that Prigozhin "commands" Wagner is laughable. He's a well paid performing seal in Putin's entourage that barks and does tricks to order.

Wagner is run by highly experienced Russian regulars now getting a better payday, it is fully integrated into the Russian command structure who could starve it in a week by simply stopping ammo shipments.

It is a nice way for Russia to run deniable overseas ops and especially generate hard currency under sanctions. Their involvement in gold smuggling in Sudan is a great example.

But also Wagner allows stuff in Ukraine like Bakhmut. The Kremlin understood that a fight like Bakhmut using regulars let alone mobiks risked domestic unrest and protests. Mothers in town squares with pictures of missing Misha and Vasily. That terrifies Putin, he knows that stuff could bring down his regime - a truly organic local mass popular revolution, not some bullshit colour coded thing with a few thousands Moscow and St Petersburg hipsters.

It is possible that Wagner has outlived its usefulness and this is part of an operation to rein it in, but I think that highly unlikely. First and foremost, you don't do that while the war is still on and secondly, its too valuable bringing in the ca$$$$h to completely wind up like this.

 

[Chadwiko]

Those people have as much idea what is happening as we do, no point posting their tweets and vids.

Don't worry. I'm sure they're just the wallet inspectors.

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Chadwiko]

Don't worry guys; this is all being staged. And it's also a cover for troop movements.

The many, many civilian videos of troops taking over the Russian MOD building in Rostov is all just a brilliant cover story!

Also, Prigozhin doesn't even command Wagner anyway, as it turns out!

Wallet inspectors.

 

[Del191229]

There's a few good twitter threads on it atm, like below. Carniege experts often produce very good analysis.

Worth remembering that Wagner's leadership doesn't have any real pull in Moscow

???

Prigozhin and Putin are good mates, inner circle stuff. Surovikin helped set up Wagner lol.

Also real talk mate - any single thing produced by an Anglophone institute/think tank/media on this isn't worth a pinch of shit.

Its all just lies and propaganda.