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Coach Justin Longmuir
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Fair enough. You make a good point. We've been poor up front for longer than I thought.
Hard for the coach to do much with limited cattle I suppose.
If we use the Pies as a reference though, you look at Mihocek and Elliot. Top
scorers for the team.
Brody is only 192cm. It’s the combined numbers of mids/forwards that get
the job done.
Cox, McStay, are not elite talls, so the coach has created a way to win.
Their spread is greater than ours. Can a coach improve this, and do people
really believe our players are incapable?
McRae bought in Hill and McStay because he knew their forward line was working
class.
If Jlo doesn’t improve the spread he is done and dusted.
I refuse to believe that we do not have the leg speed or the legs to improve
the forward half of the field.
If our shining light is McDonald in 2025, then we haven’t got a clue.
I doubt we get to best in league status but I do think we have enough to take us to finals.
Amiss, Treacy and Jackson are in contention for being our best tall forward combo ever. Yes they are in development as a trio but for each of them individually the trajectory is very good.
It is disappointing Sturt hasn't become a locked and loaded component for us up forward, but any decent coach would love him as a projectproject who is ready to impact. He is a difficult match up and a goal kicker.
Emmett, Erasmus, Stanley and others all should get a look in. Don't waste our time on Corbett and Banfield or their ilk unless they are bashing the door down in the wafl. There's no development value in them.
We need more goals/greater impact from the small forwards. I predict Simpson and Delean debut this year. But Walters, Switkowski and Frederick have enough to trouble a defence.
There is no excuse for us not to be more effective in front goals. We have enough ready made players to choose from and we have potential upgrades waiting for an opportunity.
And we have 4 x 1st round draft picks to take us next level if needed; may even be able to grab someone as good as Schultz? How good would that be!
Amiss, Treacy and Jackson are in contention for being our best tall forward combo ever. Yes they are in development as a trio but for each of them individually the trajectory is very good.
It is disappointing Sturt hasn't become a locked and loaded component for us up forward, but any decent coach would love him as a projectproject who is ready to impact. He is a difficult match up and a goal kicker.
Emmett, Erasmus, Stanley and others all should get a look in. Don't waste our time on Corbett and Banfield or their ilk unless they are bashing the door down in the wafl. There's no development value in them.
We need more goals/greater impact from the small forwards. I predict Simpson and Delean debut this year. But Walters, Switkowski and Frederick have enough to trouble a defence.
There is no excuse for us not to be more effective in front goals. We have enough ready made players to choose from and we have potential upgrades waiting for an opportunity.
And we have 4 x 1st round draft picks to take us next level if needed; may even be able to grab someone as good as Schultz? How good would that be!
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I don’t think we’ll see much more goals from Frederick or Switta tbh, however that’s largely due to the role they play further away from goal.
I actually think both play their current roles better than most but I don’t think they’d be overly great at playing a genuine small forward role. Switta is 27 next year and tbh I see Simpson as more of his long term replacement - Simpson can hit the scoreboard but he’s more a midfielder than a forward.
We probably need two talls hitting 40+ and two smalls hitting 30+. I’m comfortable enough that Jackson and Frederick can get around 25-30 as well but they’d both be serious players if they could get much more than 30 goals for a season.
A 40+ KPF instead of 2023 Treacy is an extra a goal a game. Forward line wise we’d just need to replace Schultz and Walters. I don’t think Sturt is incapable of replacing 2023 Walters in terms of goals imo - unfortunately there’s a fair gap between other parts of Schultz’ game and what I see Sturt as capable of tbh. He’s a long way done on pressure - I can’t see Sturt having games like Schultz did at times where he got 20+ touches and 2-3 goals either.
We need 3-4 goals a game out of the midfield and other non-forwards imo. We barely averaged over one goal a game from non-forwards in 2023.
A lot of the issues with lack of goals from non-forwards is to do with our slow ball movement/lack of run etc. It’s on Longmuir and his coaching team to fix this and if the players aren’t capable of doing making the tough calls needed to make it happen.
This is an AFL wet dream.
Not discounting your other comments which I largely agree with but this is the gold.
I think Frederick and Switkowski don't kick so many goals because we end up needing them to compensate for our slow ball movement and our poor wing situation. They do it ok too, but getting them 10-20 metres closer to goal because our wings are driving the ball deeper will improve our forward structure.
External pressure is already ramping up for a head to roll. Which club will be an
easy target and non Victorian?
Posters saying Justin is safe if we don’t make finals
DocT
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Is this post a year old?
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He just finished his 4th year, we had seen gradual improvement in each of his first 3 years and making the 8 in the 3rd left us all full of hope.
2023 was a backwards step though and he was slow to make the adjustments needed (the fact an assistant had been asking for young to move to the midfield for weeks before it finally happened is a bad indictment).
Jury is still out for me personally, but a return to finals seems like the required result to keep his job, and I’m fine with that.
Leniency should be given if we’re genuinely unlucky to miss finals imo.
We need to start seeing a game plan that looks capable of winning games against quality teams more consistently. Results will come once that happens - Like all lists ours has holes/weaknesses but there’s enough talent on the list for things to start coming together.
Leniency for things outside your control are fine to consider (look at the Crows situation this year). Finals is a hard and fast measuring stick, but what is actually being measured is the progress of the list and the game plan. Other factors can be brought in to play.
Ignoring the end results, aspects that will get the coach shown the door looks like:
(1) The team consistently leaks strings of goals through the centre midfield like we did last year; I agree with Garlick, Bell and others in management above Longmuir that we have invested capital to create strength in our midfield mix, including defensive strength. People complained that we looked slow but really IMO it was poor positioning and tactics which clubs saw and actively worked with. Whilst some of it sat with Corey, if this happens like last year then Longmuir is gone.
(2) The team can't efficiently and effectively get the ball forward aka the "Richmond can't get the ball to Richo". This for mine saw the end of Ross Lyon's time at the club, but is linked with 1, as coaches will often overcompensate and then find that the players move the ball too slowly. Longmuir is at risk of his forward setup losing structure which will result in slow movement.
(3) Can't score from defensive rebounds; we were a rebound scoring team up until last year where we couldn't move the ball effectively and we were only scoring from clearances. We have moved some pieces around (namely Young to the midfield, potentially Chapman too) that may hurt but I think this area is a potential coach killer too if we can't get back this fundamental piece of Longmuir's plan A strategy.
(1) The team consistently leaks strings of goals through the centre midfield like we did last year; I agree with Garlick, Bell and others in management above Longmuir that we have invested capital to create strength in our midfield mix, including defensive strength. People complained that we looked slow but really IMO it was poor positioning and tactics which clubs saw and actively worked with. Whilst some of it sat with Corey, if this happens like last year then Longmuir is gone.
(2) The team can't efficiently and effectively get the ball forward aka the "Richmond can't get the ball to Richo". This for mine saw the end of Ross Lyon's time at the club, but is linked with 1, as coaches will often overcompensate and then find that the players move the ball too slowly. Longmuir is at risk of his forward setup losing structure which will result in slow movement.
(3) Can't score from defensive rebounds; we were a rebound scoring team up until last year where we couldn't move the ball effectively and we were only scoring from clearances. We have moved some pieces around (namely Young to the midfield, potentially Chapman too) that may hurt but I think this area is a potential coach killer too if we can't get back this fundamental piece of Longmuir's plan A strategy.
Good post and agree with it all.
I think Corey Wagner is key to point 3. And hopefully Brandon Walker too, if Young is gone to the middle. Chappy will definitely play around there too. It’s one of the reasons why having a player like Ethan Highes in the team at half back is such a conservative, coach killing move at this stage of JL tenure.
He might offer good bravery and attack on the footy but don’t expect too many defensive rebound goals if the likes of Hughes is part of the possession chain.
Agree with a lot of this.
I'd add
4. Inability to lock the ball into our front half and compete on the ground- eg in 2022 we were 4th for tackles inside 50 - in 2023 we fell off a cliff to 11th, and Schultz was statistically our best pressure forward by a country mile.
5. Inability to compete in our front half. This is a no-brainer. We're 15th for winning offensive 1v1s. That's horrid. Until that's fixed top 8 is a fair way off.
You’d have to imagine Taberner and Fyfe if they were in good form would make a difference on this stat, if played in the forward half?
I feel like Jackson and Treacy compete well to at least split these contests and bring the ball to ground though, is it our smalls that are just not good enough in this department?
Piggy Smalls
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I’d put a lot of it down to mid/forward connection issues created by slow ball movement.
1v1 is also somewhat subjective as a lot of the time we kick to Walters in a 1v1 but by the time it gets to him it’s a 1v2.
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I think the best contested marks in the league take contested marks under 20% of the time. Of course that number includes 1 vs 1, 1 vs whatever, pack marks etc.
Thing is though if that's the best contested markers in the league for all contested marks what hope have we got when we're constantly bombing it to 1 vs 2 or pack situation?
I'd imagine that 20% becomes much much higher when it's 1 vs 1, especially slightly to said player's advantage.
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After four seasons he’s a dud, and a serious club would send him packing.
The reality of just making a GF, it’s an Eastern States monopoly.
Even if there is a window of opportunity we are at a disadvantage.
Unless we have an edge off the field we won’t beat them due to them
having more talented players available.
Lions will be stronger, GWS just took 2 players in the top 20.
Then you have Gold Coast. Father sons, academies and the proof in the
pudding is the U18 Allies results.
WA and SA divided just plays into the AFL’s hands.
Even if there is a window of opportunity we are at a disadvantage.
Unless we have an edge off the field we won’t beat them due to them
having more talented players available.
Lions will be stronger, GWS just took 2 players in the top 20.
Then you have Gold Coast. Father sons, academies and the proof in the
pudding is the U18 Allies results.
WA and SA divided just plays into the AFL’s hands.
DocT
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Absolutely agree. In terms of a ball delivered to a forward's advantage in a contest compared to it being a 50/50, centimetres can make a difference. Delivery is huge. That's the mid-forward thing, knowing where your forward wants it to give him that edge.
sooooo many AFL players kick to where a player is & not where he is moving to. I only notice it for our team as it does my head in, but I reckon it probably happens across the league
DocT
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To make such a call you have to explain the anomaly of 2022. Can you?
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