Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 8 - Blues v Pies Fri May 3rd 7:40pm AEST (MCG)

[Chief]

Right: Unless it's a bad one against Carlton, I don't wanna hear constant whinging about umpiring from you lot!

 

[CCurnow3votes]

How many at the same time? For what it's worth, I rate Cripps above Cerra. So missing Cripps and Walsh at the same time (or Cerra and Walsh or Cripps at the same time) is what I'd consider seriously weakening the midfield, rather than something you can quite easily work around. Not every midfield is blessed with that depth.

Sorry to say but Gov hasn't been in AA form. He's been in Jack Henry form. Which is good but you can survive without a Jack Henry as long as you aren't also losing other quality talls at the same time (e.g Weitering).

Saad is A grade, not at defending but in offensive rebound.

The next 6 you mention, one is not in the picture this year and the other 5...meh. Minor loss of quality.

Collingwood stupidly throwing Adams away, having a Gov type absence (Murphy) AND their best two contested mids of course hurts them more. Their midfield will rely on Pendles and Crisp rolling back the clock, Lipinski rolling through there and maybe returning to the unsuccessful N.Daicos midfield experiment. They did not cope well with your two power forwards when they had Murphy, let alone without.

The odds are as they are for a reason. Collingwood are underdogs and Carlton should win with a bit to spare.

Agreed we are favourites, not backing away from that.

I just don’t believe it’s because they’re missing Degoey & Mitchell.

Degoey & Mitchell have both been poor this year - nowhere near their form of last year. No great loss if you read C’wood posts.

McGovern plays a very important roll for us (prior to being injured he was in great form)- we don’t have a CHB without him or Marchbank - particularly to take the roaming CHF types - Cameron for example. McGovern often also plays on marking smalls - offers versatility.

Saad hasn’t been a one way HBF for his time at Carlton. He has flashy runs occasionally, using his brilliant kicking - now very much missed.

His most important value is his ability to win one on one with the oppo’s best small forward - last week he would have taken Stengle - this week Elliott.

My point is , yes not having Degoey & Mitchell makes winning the ball harder vs The Blues - as we’ve heard from Collingwood fans incessantly - team system overcomes individual value, at some point there is a cliff edge you reach with personal that impedes successfully implementing a team system.

It irks me to hear that Collingwood injuries to 2 players (who’ve had average recent form) is the catalyst for an inevitable loss.

I think we are favourites because we have shown better form - irrespective of us missing 8 of our best team - albeit a bunch of “average flankers”.

 

[Osho]

It's been a lovely, informative, balanced thread so far. Thanks for the contributions.

Let's hope by tonight the edge, the malice, the bias, and the hatred of these two teams' fans return.

Let's hope for a return to normality!

 

[Mr Meow]

Agreed we are favourites, not backing away from that.

I just don’t believe it’s because they’re missing Degoey & Mitchell.

Degoey & Mitchell have both been poor this year - nowhere near their form of last year. No great loss if you read C’wood posts.

McGovern plays a very important roll for us (prior to being injured he was in great form)- we don’t have a CHB without him or Marchbank - particularly to take the roaming CHF types - Cameron for example. McGovern often also plays on marking smalls - offers versatility.

Saad hasn’t been a one way HBF for his time at Carlton. He has flashy runs occasionally, using his brilliant kicking - now very much missed.

His most important value is his ability to win one on one with the oppo’s best small forward - last week he would have taken Stengle - this week Elliott.

My point is , yes not having Degoey & Mitchell makes winning the ball harder vs The Blues - as we’ve heard from Collingwood fans incessantly - team system overcomes individual value, at some point there is a cliff edge you reach with personal that impedes successfully implementing a team system.

It irks me to hear that Collingwood injuries to 2 players (who’ve had average recent form) is the catalyst for an inevitable loss.

I think we are favourites because we have shown better form - irrespective of us missing 8 of our best team - albeit a bunch of “average flankers”.

De Goey has improved the last 3 games and Mitchell showed he can turn it on against Brisbane. Their drop off previously undoubtedly hurt the Pies but without them, their midfield is in trouble. Their depth options are worse than Carlton's. A LOT depends on Pendles, Crisp, Lipinski and possibly Daicos playing at their absolute best in the guts.

Like I said, the Gov absence was more of a factor when facing elite power forwards. Not so much this week. So the Murphy loss to Collingwood is more significant. Moore is not having a good season and does not have his strong defensive pal. Curnow and McKay, if they are on song, could kick 5 goals or more each.

I do rate Saad, I just don't believe he is as important defensively as you are making out.

On paper Carlton's midfield will eviscerate Collingwood's, whereas I don't see Collingwood's defence absolutely dominating Carlton's forwards just because Fog, Martin and Motlop are missing. Their forwards aren't as strong as Geelong's to offset that.

Anyway like you said anything can happen. But the odds are about right.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Losing your two best contested mids (imagine plugging JDG and Mitchell in, then removing Walsh and Cripps) counts for more than missing a few flankers of average-decent quality. The odds have adjusted accordingly. No Gov means little against Collingwood's KPF stocks.

Pies have 'managed/dropped' Mitchell earlier in the season. He's no longer a core part of what they're doing.

Missing JDG is perhaps similar to us missing Walsh.

IMO the biggest challenge for the Pies is missing Murphy. Maybe not this game given Carlton is missing a big chunk of our best 22.

However it could be tricky for the Pies come finals time given a lot of the likely finalists have gun KPFs: GWS, Lions, Cats, Blues.

 

[PerthBoy86]

My gut says Carlton but I still don't trust them. I hope they are serious tonight and roll the Pies.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

De Goey has improved the last 3 games and Mitchell showed he can turn it on against Brisbane. Their drop off previously undoubtedly hurt the Pies but without them, their midfield is in trouble. Their depth options are worse than Carlton's. A LOT depends on Pendles, Crisp, Lipinski and possibly Daicos playing at their absolute best in the guts.

Like I said, the Gov absence was more of a factor when facing elite power forwards. Not so much this week. So the Murphy loss to Collingwood is more significant. Moore is not having a good season and does not have his strong defensive pal. Curnow and McKay, if they are on song, could kick 5 goals or more each.

I do rate Saad, I just don't believe he is as important defensively as you are making out.

On paper Carlton's midfield will eviscerate Collingwood's, whereas I don't see Collingwood's defence absolutely dominating Carlton's forwards just because Fog, Martin and Motlop are missing. Their forwards aren't as strong as Geelong's to offset that.

Anyway like you said anything can happen. But the odds are about right.

Fingers bloody crossed

Blues supporters are generally suffering from PTSD - not believing fully…just yet.

Let’s see how we get through the next 3 weeks as a few more make their way back into the team.

All the best to the Catter’s this week - hoping you soften the Dees for us

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Everyone got their beans on Collingwood?

View attachment 1977385

Clear underdog status

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[Chief]

Fingers bloody crossed

Blues supporters are generally suffering from PTSD - not believing fully…just yet.

Let’s see how we get through the next 3 weeks as a few more make their way back into the team.

All the best to the Catter’s this week - hoping you soften the Dees for us

The group of Pies supporters I have often watched footy with have for years usually been on tenterhooks before each game.

They know their own team's weaknesses and ability to stuff things up as well as any supporter. Crossed fingers all around.

 

[HairyO]

Pies have 'managed/dropped' Mitchell earlier in the season. He's no longer a core part of what they're doing.

Is that when they experimented with having Daicos in the middle, which they quickly realised was a massive failure?

 

[JustaBattler]

Dropping Carroll and Binns ( sub) - increases body size and speed in Cuningham and Cincotta - Cerra is the big inclusion because he has some footy smarts. Kemp is the unlucky out - keeping Young in purely because of his height to cover the Collinhgwod resting ruck as Weitering will be on Mihocek -- I can think of no other reason for Young to be playing tbh.

Collingwood are a very fit team and with Hill and McCreary on the flanks have plenty of speed to find space.

The only defender Carlton has with proper closing speed if they need to run off is Boyd - this is where Saad and (yes) McGovern are being missed as far as defensive spoiling goes. Saad's defensive game is massively under rated by BF
talkers - he might look good on the burst - but it is his ability halve one on ones and often two on ones. b his little taps and dribbles - buys Carlton a lot of time to structure on when caught on a fast break.

Well Carlton supporters will be hoping for a much improved defensive effort - Voss probably has stressed the point as well - but knowing what can be done to minimise the negatives of the 'forward half game' is one thing- executing with young inexperienced players in Cowan/Cincotta/Boyd - is another.

Collingwood will be hoping that (expected but I will believe it when I see it) Carlton's on ball dominance doesn't match up with the two talls clunking marks and kicking straighter.

On paper, a lot has to go right for Collingwood to win this one - strange feeling for me to have that level of confidence.

I reckon Carlton wins by 4-6 goals or it becomes a nail biter which goes either way in teh last 5 minutes.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Twoevenly matched teams in a game of little interest or consequence beyond 8-11 spots on the ladder

 

[My Tilly]

Cerra is the big inclusion because he has some footy smarts. Kemp is the unlucky out -

Not worth pick 6 is he.
Don't get me wrong, decent midfielder but mids like Cerra are a dime-a-dozen.

I'm looking forward to watching all these injured players come into the Carlton side and suddenly turn them into this supposedly great juggernaut.

 

[JustaBattler]

Twoevenly matched teams in a game of little interest or consequence beyond 8-11 spots on the ladder

We aren't talking Sydney V GWS fester ol mate- wrong thread buddy.

 

[JustaBattler]

Not worth pick 6 is he.
Don't get me wrong, decent midfielder but mids like Cerra are a dime-a-dozen.

I'm looking forward to watching all these injured players come into the Carlton side and suddenly turn them into this supposedly great juggernaut.

Are you posting in the wrong thread too or are you just lonely?

 

[Robertio]

Not worth pick 6 is he.
Don't get me wrong, decent midfielder but mids like Cerra are a dime-a-dozen.

I'm looking forward to watching all these injured players come into the Carlton side and suddenly turn them into this supposedly great juggernaut.

You don't think getting Cerra and those injured players back will make any difference?

 

[Franc de Borges]

My gut says Carlton but I still don't trust them. I hope they are serious tonight and roll the Pies.

With that attitude, you could be an honorary Carlton supporter.

 

[Worm4]

Not worth pick 6 is he.
Don't get me wrong, decent midfielder but mids like Cerra are a dime-a-dozen.

I'm looking forward to watching all these injured players come into the Carlton side and suddenly turn them into this supposedly great juggernaut.

What are your thoughts on Hoskin-elliot being a no 4 draft selection ? I think Cerra at 6 is a bargain .

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Not worth pick 6 is he.
Don't get me wrong, decent midfielder but mids like Cerra are a dime-a-dozen.

I'm looking forward to watching all these injured players come into the Carlton side and suddenly turn them into this supposedly great juggernaut.

How did the Cats perform last year?

Oh yes… injuries.

 

[PerthBoy86]

With that attitude, you could be an honorary Carlton supporter.

I will be tonight. Your 5 and 1 GF record (their last win over 100 years ago) is still funny.

 

[Milanista28]

If I'm Fly (I'm not) I'd play McCreery as inside mid as much as possible tonight, just back him in, need to throw something different up.

 

[JustaBattler]

Shout out to all the absent Collingwood chest puffers ....

sharpening their knives if they jag a win...

LOL

 

[Corn Cobbers]

If I'm Fly (I'm not) I'd play McCreery as inside mid as much as possible tonight, just back him in, need to throw something different up.

We're gonna get killed in the middle no matter what

The "spud" Pittonet has now turned into Gary Dempsey overnight and Cripps and Walsh are on fire

Best to set up interference around Curnow, play Daics at his feet and smash them on the rebound

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[T2B_]

Not worth pick 6 is he.
Don't get me wrong, decent midfielder but mids like Cerra are a dime-a-dozen.

I'm looking forward to watching all these injured players come into the Carlton side and suddenly turn them into this supposedly great juggernaut.

For the sake of all of us with an IQ over 50, please take your pathetic rent-free Bay level trolling where it belongs.

 

[My Tilly]

What are your thoughts on Hoskin-elliot being a no 4 draft selection ? I think Cerra at 6 is a bargain .

Hoskin-Elliott has been average so definitely not much reward for a lot given up.

At pick 6, you are expecting a pretty damn good player. Cerra turns 25 so he's probably reached his ceiling and while I'd happily have him at my club, sort of a similar type to Bowes.

You don't think getting Cerra and those injured players back will make any difference?

No I do not.
Walsh and Weitering being out hurt you. Those types are the spine of your footy club.

 

[bourbons]

The only defender Carlton has with proper closing speed if they need to run off is Boyd - this is where Saad and (yes) McGovern are being missed as far as defensive spoiling goes. Saad's defensive game is massively under rated by BF talkers - he might look good on the burst - but it is his ability halve one on ones and often two on ones. b his little taps and dribbles - buys Carlton a lot of time to structure on when caught on a fast break.

This

Engineers the most effective little half possessions, bobbles and soccer taps so consistently, does it every game.