🌀 🌀 Tropical Cyclone Alfred 🌀 🌀 QLD / NSW

[Billy ray]

 

[Xtreme]

From a friend up at gangsters surfers paradiseView attachment 2241510

Can see the building I'm in from there!!

Just had an update from the accommodation. Less anxious than what I was hours ago, still concerned of course. All depends on the path of Alfred.

 

[Billy ray]

Down Byron way

 

[magpie_marty]

Tweed Heads here far north NSW
The winds stops for a bit and then bang wind picks up and rain.

 

[magpie_marty]

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Has Slowed Down & Will Arrive Later - What Does That Mean for SE QLD / NE NSW?

(Key takeaway - you may have awoken to sunny skies this morning Brisbane, but the threat is still there - it's just delayed. And the change in the outlook increases what was already a high concern for rainfall and flooding).

We all held our breath last night as Alfred did a little loop and briefly shifted eastwards, away from the Queensland coastline but this morning we can see that Alfred is most definitely tracking west again with the general progression towards the west today.

It does mean that Alfred will arrive a little later than expected, with a crossing more likely either late tomorrow night, or potentially even during Saturday. When it comes to tropical cyclone movement, tropical cyclones are effectively just big 'sail boats' in the ocean that are pushed around by broader steering influences. But these steering influences are always changing - even a 12 hour delay could lead to a different path.

Because of this delay, by the time Alfred approaches the coastline, the steering influences will likely be weaker - this could see the ridge to the south playing a more significant role, meaning Alfred will slow down on approach to the coastline, possibly hover, do a loop, or just slowly track northwards along the coastline (or a bit of a combination of all these). This is a bit of a double edged sword.

On one hand, it's possible that the maximum wind gust potential is slightly lower - there seems to be more scenarios keeping the strongest (150km/h) wind gusts offshore, or if they do occur being very coastal. On the other hand, it could result in a broader region and longer period of damaging winds (90-120km/h) and a slower moving system has the potential to bring more rain. That rain is very much still focused around northeastern NSW and the southern areas of the Southeast Coast (Gold Coast/Logan catchments etc). But I've mentioned many times about the potential for a post-cyclone convergence line to extend northeast from Alfred and if Alfred slows down, or even wobbles a bit northwards that could mean a longer period of intense rainfall with that rainfall impacting more of the Brisbane metro area.

Alfred is well and truly within the BoM's high resolution city model's domain now and have included a wind loop in km/h of the progression. You can see the slow down then shuffle up the coastline - an odd pattern, but it's a scenario we're seeing repeated across many of the models.

It also means the timing of impact could be longer, instead of a Thu - Sat period, we're looking at a Thu-Sun period (mindful that many people in Brisbane this morning will be waking up to sunny skies - trust me, it WILL get worse!) The big thing you'll notice is that when the showers begin to roll through later this morning the winds will become noticeably stronger as the showers drag the stronger winds aloft, down to ground level.

Power went out this morning in Tweed Heads around 4am that was worrying came back on at 8am

 

[Xtreme]

Idiots on TV

 

[Billy ray]

During the next 48-72 hours (Thursday afternoon til Sunday morning), parts of South East QLD and large parts of North East NSW are expected to cop an absolute deluge from ALFRED - both in the lead up to the system crossing, and then for a prolonged period after landfall.

Widespread falls of 250-500mm are still forecast across parts of the South East QLD Coast, into the Southern Downs and Granite Belt, Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers & Mid North Coast - with higher falls of over 800mm being projected on model data. These totals are on top of the 200-300mm+ that has already fallen across areas like Dorrigo and around Northern parts of the Northern Rivers.

This rainfall will likely lead to immediate flash flooding and potentially some LIFE-THREATENING flash flooding, before rivers and creeks surge towards MAJOR thresholds. Some dangerous thunderstorms may also develop over these areas during Saturday, with torrential rainfall occurring in them and possibly converging over the same areas, which will only exaggerate the rapid flash flooding further.

 

[justlookingaround]

To be honest I kind of wouldn't mind experiencing it from a hotel, it'd be a massive stress worrying about your home/loved ones but without them in the crosshairs I'd be down... Is cyclone/hurricane tourism a thing?

 

[Frank Bunn]

Down Byron wayView attachment 2241643

It should buff out.

 

[Xtreme]

Me being a Mrs Mangle at the people gawking at the beach

 

[Nothing]

To be honest I kind of wouldn't mind experiencing it from a hotel, it'd be a massive stress worrying about your home/loved ones but without them in the crosshairs I'd be down... Is cyclone/hurricane tourism a thing?

I was in a hotel in Shizuoka during typhoon Hagibis. We got some extra supplies to last our time.

In the end it was a boring night without being able to see much.

 

[Xtreme]

To be honest I kind of wouldn't mind experiencing it from a hotel, it'd be a massive stress worrying about your home/loved ones but without them in the crosshairs I'd be down... Is cyclone/hurricane tourism a thing?

Eh I'm fascinated in the lead up, but when things get too loud, noisy (and I see Free Willy leaping up off a wave) I'm shutting the curtains and locking myself in the bathroom.

 

[spinynorman]

Schools closed in NSW down to Taree which...is extremely far south. I assume that's just for the heavy rainfall and potential for flooding on the Manning, which is prone to it, and not the risk of the actual cyclone hitting that far down.

A lot of concern for the people of poor Lismore, which is the largest non-mining town to have population decreases over the past decade in this country as it becomes increasingly uninhabitable. And of course the large cities in Brisbane and Gold Coast.

Take care everyone, and hopefully this can all be seen as all for nothing.

 

[Billy ray]

Lismore is 100% FUBAR

 

[Billy ray]

* 7 P.M. THURSDAY UPDATE ON ALFRED’S OUTER INITIAL IMPACTS SO FAR IN SE QLD AND NE NSW *

-- The New South Wales SES has directed people in the Lismore CBD and surrounds to evacuate before 9 P.M. tonight due to major flooding potential from cyclone Alfred.

The SES has also directed people in some other areas in the Northern Rivers district of NSW to evacuate such as some parts of Kyogle, Coraki and Uki. Please head to the NSW SES page for the latest details.

-- Trees and powerlines have been brought down in some isolated parts of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales by strong winds.

-- Well over 100 mm of rain has already been recorded so far over the last 24 to 48 hours at many sites stretching from the GC hinterlands down to the New South Wales mid north coast.

-- Maximum wave height up to 15 metres recorded offshore from the Tweed yesterday.

-- People standing too close to the water’s edge on the GC watching the waves have suffered injuries. Please stay a safe distance away from the water.

-- Major beach erosion has been occurring and in some areas, there is very little beach remaining above the water level.

-- Many stores including supermarkets have shut down.

-- All passenger flights into and out of Brisbane and Gold Coast Airports have been suspended.

 

[Billy ray]

Rainfall projections- thats a LOT of rain in short period

 

[Shell]

What time is it due now?

 

[rank and file]

To be honest I kind of wouldn't mind experiencing it from a hotel, it'd be a massive stress worrying about your home/loved ones but without them in the crosshairs I'd be down... Is cyclone/hurricane tourism a thing?

Cyclone parties are a thing,been to a few
Carnarvon,Karratha,Broome and Darwin.
Good times.

 

[Billy ray]

What time is it due now?

I think its Saturday morning but the damage all happens pre-crossing to the south west quadrant.

 

[Billy ray]

Here is a good video. For those so inclined.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

What time is it due now?

Early Saturday morning, Bribie Island/Caboolture

Latest track map -

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Bribie Island is very low and flat. It's going to get smashed.

Always reminds me of Amity Island (Jaws) when I go there.

 

[rank and file]

Media vultures lapping it up.

 

[Billy ray]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

As soon as that rain bomb is over the land, many places are farrked with flooding

 

[deck]

To be honest I kind of wouldn't mind experiencing it from a hotel, it'd be a massive stress worrying about your home/loved ones but without them in the crosshairs I'd be down... Is cyclone/hurricane tourism a thing?

Got caught up in Hurricane Sandy in NYC back in 2012. Spent most the night at the bar opposite our Hotel in Brooklyn.

Got kinda unlucky and lucky with staying in Brooklyn rather than Manhattan. Lucky that lower Manhattan below 34th st had no power for 5 days after. But unlucky that the subways and road tunnels flooded under the east river leaving only buses and the bridges access over to Manhattan.

Issue to with restrictions on cars not allowed to cross into Manhattan with only 1 person in the vehicle. It applied to taxis too so many were reluctant to cross back to Brooklyn if they needed to return to Manhattan.

It was a interesting night with people going in and out of the bar as the canal around the corner slowly flooded up the street. I remember 1 guy coming in to the bar and being all excited that he had been hit by a bit of debris. A smallish stick had struck him in the wind.