List Mgmt. 2025 List Management discussion

[Anythings_sipposible]

Please understand that this is only 5% of the salary cap.

Each club must spend 95%. So St Kilda is already spending 95%. We've "lost" the rest.

It can be 10% though.

There is a mechanism where you can go over 100% if you're still under 100% across 2 years. So if St Kilda was 95% this year, theoretically they could spend 105% in 2026 and go back to 100% in 2027.

So when you say "use it or lose it" you're talking About Max 10% and you're talking about one season only.

This isn't a 1 year deal we're offering here!


There is only one way.

Build through the draft.

Then, once it's clear the club is heading in the right direction (according to consensus not just rusted on Saints fans), then you can attract FAs and trades without paying too far over.

Please understand that this is only 5% of the salary cap.

Each club must spend 95%. So St Kilda is already spending 95%. We've "lost" the rest.

It can be 10% though.

There is a mechanism where you can go over 100% if you're still under 100% across 2 years. So if St Kilda was 95% this year, theoretically they could spend 105% in 2026 and go back to 100% in 2027.

So when you say "use it or lose it" you're talking About Max 10% and you're talking about one season only.

This isn't a 1 year deal we're offering here!


There is only one way.

Build through the draft.

Then, once it's clear the club is heading in the right direction (according to consensus not just rusted on Saints fans), then you can attract FAs and trades without paying too far over.

We can't legitimately build through the draft, it's too compromised. If we finish where we currently are this year, it is extremely probable that our current pick 8 would get pushed out to pick 15. Clubs above us like Gold Coast and Brisbane will (respectively) likely take 3 and 1 players above us. Sydney, a recent Grand Finalist, will take 1-2 players in front of us. So what should become a relatively sure thing for us in a top ten pick enters that gambling stage of the late teens, while our competition turns nothing picks into sure thing top tenners. This is something that is often overlooked with academy picks: not only do our picks get pushed back, our completion lowers their own risk.

This is all on top of our first pick last year being pushed back by 1 pick (Ashcroft) and our second pick being pushed back 2 picks (Ashcroft, Lombard). It's also on top of our 2023 first first roubd pick being pushed back 4 spots and our second first rounder (Gresham Comp) being pushed back 7 picks, our 2022 being pushed back 2 spots, and our 2021 pick pushed back 2 spots. In all of these years bar '23, a Grand Finalist or recent Grand Finalist picked in front of us. This also doesn't factor in our 2nd and 3rd round picks, which are equally diluted.

This is the recent history of us trying to build through the draft, and you could assume that it is only going to get harder with Tasmania slated to enter the comp pretty soon.

So how, exactly, are we supposed to build a list when our first round pick is often diluted and our direct competition often gets priority (and cheap) access to young talent? Well we could try building through trade, but it's a player based market and players generally go to either big name clubs or clubs currently in contention. The only thing left is to pay overs, and hope we get lucky with talent id

 

[PJays]

do you understand it? do you have access to all contracts etc?

fact remains, you think its going to put salary cap pressure on...not one person in the media has said it would, it just looks like your hanging your hat on it. You're not even taking into account that the salary cap will be increasing every couple of years. in 5 years (after weve front loaded this contract with the money we have saved on the cap floor) this will just be a run of the mill contract....i still remember everyone having a tissy because of brad hills 800k...now a mediocre player gets 800k and that was only a few years ago....

The AFL player salary cap is set to rise significantly in the coming years, with the limit increasing from $15.79 million in 2024 to $17.7 million in 2025 and potentially even higher by 2027. This increase is expected to lead to more players earning over $1 million annually and a rise in the average player salary.

Here's a more detailed look at the projected salary cap and its impact:

• Rising Salary Cap:
  The AFL's Total Player Payment (TPP) limit, effectively the salary cap, is set to increase to $18.44 million by 2027. This is a significant jump from the $15.02 million in 2023.
  
  
• Increased Million-Dollar Players:
  The increase in the salary cap is expected to lead to more players earning over $1 million per year, with industry experts predicting that most clubs will have at least three players on seven-figure deals by 2027.
  
  
• Impact on Average Salary:
  The average salary for an AFL player is also expected to rise, with the average salary for a listed player reaching $460,000 in 2025, up from $441,464 in 2024.
  
  
• Minimum Expenditure Requirement:
  Clubs are required to spend at least 95% of their salary cap on player wages. This ensures that clubs are not purposefully underpaying players or avoiding recruitment.
  
  
• Flexibility within the Salary Cap:
  While clubs must adhere to the minimum expenditure requirement, the AFL also allows for some flexibility with a "Luxury Tax Framework". This framework allows clubs to overspend their salary cap by a certain amount without penalty, potentially up to $1 million

That reads like its from ChatGPT.

Well done on actually doing some research (unlike several of those who've been replying to me).

But look, even if:

- The cap is $18.44 mil in 2027

- St Kilda goes over by $1mil resulting in financially punitive penalties ("luxury tax") taking their spend to $1.944 mil

- De Koning's deal is front ended with $2.5 mil in 2026 and the remaining $10mil spread evenly over 2027 - 2032

We'd still be dedicating almost 9% of the 2027 salary cap to someone who's maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30!". (And we'd be paying luxury tax on top).

Unless, somehow, some of his salary is intended to be from the AFL marketing fund rather than from St Kilda. But that seems unlikely for the reasons I posted previously.

 

[gubby88]

That reads like its from ChatGPT.

Well done on actually doing some research (unlike several of those who've been replying to me).

But look, even if:

- The cap is $18.44 mil in 2027

- St Kilda goes over by $1mil resulting in financially punitive penalties ("luxury tax") taking their spend to $1.944 mil

- De Koning's deal is front ended with $2.5 mil in 2026 and the remaining $10mil spread evenly over 2027 - 2032

We'd still be dedicating almost 9% of the 2027 salary cap to someone who's maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30!". (And we'd be paying luxury tax on top).

Unless, somehow, some of his salary is intended to be from the AFL marketing fund rather than from St Kilda. But that seems unlikely for the reasons I posted previously.

"We'd still be dedicating almost 9% of the 2027 salary cap to someone who's maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30!". (And we'd be paying luxury tax on top)."

how do you know he wont be the best ruckman in 2027? Max Gawn seems to think he will be at some point and i would take his word alot more than someone who posts on BF. Your posting 2025 "facts" and not actually looking at the future

 

[g_TRAIN]

Joffaboy is an accountant!??

Then how does he (and so many others) not understand this....

The only way the contract makes sense is he makes a big improvement next year - then stays at that very high level for 6 or 7 years. Becomes the next Gawn.

Is that possible? Yes.

Is it probable? Definitely not.

I’m generally with you on this, but I reckon you’re going a bit too hard.

It’s not clear-cut, heaps of unknowns and assumptions are in the mix, starting with that $1.7 million figure.

We’ve seen it before, where media-reported salaries end up being way off. Rory Lobb, Brodie Grundy, early numbers were miles off what actually came out later.

I think we need to see how it plays out.

 

[L_W_P]

Genuine question: Could TDK do for us what Jackson has done for Freo the last few weeks and play as a pure mid?

He finds plenty of the ball around the ground so I'm wondering if he could end up like Jackson or Blicavs where he actually plays on ball/wing/half forward at times.

He and Ro could split time forward obviously, but if we want to change things up could this be an option?

 

[littlecreatures]

This is an opinion, and a pretty obvious conclusion to draw. Caro gets a lot right when it comes to speculation around AFL house and the off field side of the game.
When it comes to player movement she knows three fifths of **** all.

This is a weird take from Caro - did someone bother to let her know that Jase Burgoyne is also still out of contract? That’s hardly selling a vision of hope, in addition to everything else going on at that joint.

 

[The Punter]

We are hopefully beyond that. We were barely competitive and we had to cut guys like Acres and Hickey for cap relief. Even Long was too much to keep. Hill was poor for his first 2 years but he's exactly what was promised. He's a outside seagull but that's what we were chasing.

If Nas, Phillipou, Hammer and a heap of our kids are stars then we get to experience the hurt of long legacy contracts. Carlton can't move forward from just off the peloton because of irresponsible desperate contracts when they were where we are now.

I think when we got Hill we were expecting something classier.

Long was a "not at this price" decision for a guy who was only ever a squad player for us.

 

[Diehard Saint]

That reads like its from ChatGPT.

Well done on actually doing some research (unlike several of those who've been replying to me).

But look, even if:

- The cap is $18.44 mil in 2027

- St Kilda goes over by $1mil resulting in financially punitive penalties ("luxury tax") taking their spend to $1.944 mil

- De Koning's deal is front ended with $2.5 mil in 2026 and the remaining $10mil spread evenly over 2027 - 2032

We'd still be dedicating almost 9% of the 2027 salary cap to someone who's maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30!". (And we'd be paying luxury tax on top).

Unless, somehow, some of his salary is intended to be from the AFL marketing fund rather than from St Kilda. But that seems unlikely for the reasons I posted previously.

Wow. The absolute arrogance of that.
“Well done”

Personally, I’m going with Bassat - you’ve heard of him - who would have more clue than anyone on here about the financial position at the club and the future of the salary cap.

 

[PJays]

I’m generally with you on this, but I reckon you’re going a bit too hard.

It’s not clear-cut, heaps of unknowns and assumptions are in the mix, starting with that $1.7 million figure.

We’ve seen it before, where media-reported salaries end up being way off. Rory Lobb, Brodie Grundy, early numbers were miles off what actually came out later.

I think we need to see how it plays out.

Fair enough.

I'm happily stating my assumptions and happy to admit I'm going off what's been reported in the media. Same as everyone else is.

The Herald Sun posts yearly lists of the top 100 paid players in the AFL, and AFAIK it's generally considered reliable.

So if he does sign (which seems likely) we'll have a good indication eventually.

 

[bakes10]

This is an opinion, and a pretty obvious conclusion to draw. Caro gets a lot right when it comes to speculation around AFL house and the off field side of the game.
When it comes to player movement she knows three fifths of **** all.

We should flip the tables on them and make Jase Burgoyne an offer he can't refuse to play for the Saints. Sign up Keeler again and Nas will wanna stay !

 

[botts]

Post about Caro saying chase is doing heaps to get nas over to port. Lance liked it. Not sure what to read into that

 

[beside the seaside]

If you want to read into the quotes I think Nas saying he wants to be part of a special Saints team is pretty positive. It's more than the usual "I'm just loving playing footy here and we'll see how it plays out" or "I'll leave it to my manager".

If he does leave we need to make it a deal like Judd or Cameron. Clubs can't just come and tap up gun players without the currency to trade for them. I know the Cats did it with Smith but we should refuse to bend over. Need at least one gun player coming back along with very good picks.

Not at all phases by Burgoyne and Horne-Francis telling him how good Port is. If it's a home factor then that will make no difference he's not going for the club he's going for the city.

An interesting six months coming up but the main thing is if we lose him we need to demand a king's ransom. Sides have lost gun players and still built from it.

 

[PJays]

Personally, I’m going with Bassat - you’ve heard of him - who would have more clue than anyone on here about the financial position at the club and the future of the salary cap.

Firstly, I've asked already- what exactly did Bassat say that you're all so excited about?

Provide the quotes

I would guess Bassat is being optimistic about our salary cap position in 2028 onwards.

Based on the facts that

- TPP is generally linked with revenue (31.7% of revenue in the 2023 - 2027 CBA).

- TV rights revenue has increased massively on the current rights deal (2025 - 2031) which will likely be reflected in the new CBA from 2028 onwards.

However, I still don't like it, because

- Other players will be factoring this in too. NWM's price is rising by the week. King would've factored this into his deal running into 2032.

- Other players who have signed long term deals at other clubs recently haven't earned anything like as much as De Koning. If we're paying him overs compared to others we're still at relative disadvantage compared to other clubs

- We don't know who will be available at the end of 2026 (Sam Walsh RFA, or others who may request a trade)

- This risks club culture. Bringing in guys and making them highest paid player at the club (and AFL)

- We've seen examples of clubs paying for big contracts and what this can do- Carlton and Collingwood

- History says for a small club, it's better to build through the draft and then sign free agents, trades later

- De Koning is currently maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30" who's never played more than 19 games in a season.

- It's generally not wise making a Ruckman one of your highest paid players because they don't represent relative value.

Ultimately, if the cap does increase massively due to TV rights increases, and if De Koning keeps improving and stays healthy, this could eventually be an OK result for St Kilda.

Time will tell.

 

[mighty_sainters]

Could be nothing, could be something.

Cal Twomey has just reposted Josh Gabelich’s article about NWM.

My guess is we will have an answer in the next two weeks, leaning towards him staying. It’s being talked about heavily, Battle last year went super quiet early.

 

[beside the seaside]

Could be nothing, could be something.

Cal Twomey has just reposted Josh Gabelich’s article about NWM.

My guess is we will have an answer in the next two weeks, leaning towards him staying. It’s being talked about heavily, Battle last year went super quiet early.

It's interesting that we posted the article on our club website.

 

[Saint believer]

'Part of something special': Star happy at Saints as decision on future looms

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera spoke to AFL.com.au's Josh Gabelich about his future and his growth at the Saints

www.afl.com.au

NASIAH Wanganeen-Milera has let his exquisite right foot do the talking for him this year, but ahead of a return home for the bye, the in-demand South Australian says he wants to build something special at St Kilda and loves playing under Ross Lyon, although he isn’t ready to make a decision on his future.

If Nas goes, do the saints offer the compo deal for Nas with our first rounder for Reid?

 

[g_TRAIN]

My big worry about losing NAS, other than the fact he's an absolute weapon, is that no one is positioned to compensate us fairly for him.

Draft picks-wise, neither Adelaide clubs will have a strong hand, and with all the academy picks due to go early, we could end up with a couple of mid-teens picks at best.

I would demand 3–4 first-round picks and a really good player. Not sure how it gets done. Hopefully it does not eventuate.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Genuine question: Could TDK do for us what Jackson has done for Freo the last few weeks and play as a pure mid?

He finds plenty of the ball around the ground so I'm wondering if he could end up like Jackson or Blicavs where he actually plays on ball/wing/half forward at times.

He and Ro could split time forward obviously, but if we want to change things up could this be an option?

Lyon likes having his tall marking targets up the ground, they can help the transition from backline a LOT.
Even on the weekend, we saw Sharman move back to work as a link up player.
He had 8 marks in the game and 9 score involvements.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Firstly, I've asked already- what exactly did Bassat say that you're all so excited about?

Provide the quotes

I would guess Bassat is being optimistic about our salary cap position in 2028 onwards.

Based on the facts that

- TPP is generally linked with revenue (31.7% of revenue in the 2023 - 2027 CBA).

- TV rights revenue has increased massively on the current rights deal (2025 - 2031) which will likely be reflected in the new CBA from 2028 onwards.

However, I still don't like it, because

- Other players will be factoring this in too. NWM's price is rising by the week. King would've factored this into his deal running into 2032.

- Other players who have signed long term deals at other clubs recently haven't earned anything like as much as De Koning. If we're paying him overs compared to others we're still at relative disadvantage compared to other clubs

- We don't know who will be available at the end of 2026 (Sam Walsh RFA, or others who may request a trade)

- This risks club culture. Bringing in guys and making them highest paid player at the club (and AFL)

- We've seen examples of clubs paying for big contracts and what this can do- Carlton and Collingwood

- History says for a small club, it's better to build through the draft and then sign free agents, trades later

- De Koning is currently maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30"

Ultimately, if the cap does increase massively due to TV rights increases, and if De Koning keeps improving and stays healthy, this could eventually be an OK result for St Kilda.

Time will tell.

I’m not providing the quotes.
Seriously?
Look for it yourself. He said it quite openly - I believe it was on SEN with Gerard Whately but it was a while ago so not 100% sure.

But I heard it.

He said that we had enough cap to go after a couple of free agents AND look after our existing players. This was after it was put to him that surely it was more important to look after Nas first.

I might be mistaken, but I figure that the club might know just how important Nas is to us. And the future young guns, that they’re not going to toss it all away on one player.

 

[wolfpac13]

There isn't a single player in the league that I prefer of Nas. Draft picks don't even excite me.

I feel like we will know in the next few weeks but I'm starting to get worried.

Feeling like the pull to be back home with family will be too big

 

[beside the seaside]

If Nas goes, do the saints offer the compo deal for Nas with our first rounder for Reid?

The problem is with trading it's all about convincing the player, nothing to do with what you can offer the club.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Firstly, I've asked already- what exactly did Bassat say that you're all so excited about?

Provide the quotes

I would guess Bassat is being optimistic about our salary cap position in 2028 onwards.

Based on the facts that

- TPP is generally linked with revenue (31.7% of revenue in the 2023 - 2027 CBA).

- TV rights revenue has increased massively on the current rights deal (2025 - 2031) which will likely be reflected in the new CBA from 2028 onwards.

However, I still don't like it, because

- Other players will be factoring this in too. NWM's price is rising by the week. King would've factored this into his deal running into 2032.

- Other players who have signed long term deals at other clubs recently haven't earned anything like as much as De Koning. If we're paying him overs compared to others we're still at relative disadvantage compared to other clubs

- We don't know who will be available at the end of 2026 (Sam Walsh RFA, or others who may request a trade)

- This risks club culture. Bringing in guys and making them highest paid player at the club (and AFL)

- We've seen examples of clubs paying for big contracts and what this can do- Carlton and Collingwood

- History says for a small club, it's better to build through the draft and then sign free agents, trades later

- De Koning is currently maybe "a top 4 ruckman under 30" who's never played more than 19 games in a season.

- It's generally not wise making a Ruckman one of your highest paid players because they don't represent relative value.

Ultimately, if the cap does increase massively due to TV rights increases, and if De Koning keeps improving and stays healthy, this could eventually be an OK result for St Kilda.

Time will tell.

So you reckon we are offering TDK way to much so it begs the question

What do you think is a fair contract offer to put to TDK taking into account he is a restricted free agent where Carlton has the right to match any contract offer?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

My big worry about losing NAS, other than the fact he's an absolute weapon, is that no one is positioned to compensate us fairly for him.

Draft picks-wise, neither Adelaide clubs will have a strong hand, and with all the academy picks due to go early, we could end up with a couple of mid-teens picks at best.

I would demand 3–4 first-round picks and a really good player. Not sure how it gets done. Hopefully it does not eventuate.

Shai Bolton was effectively a pick 10 and a later first round pick.
Daniel Rioli was pick 6 and pick 23.

He's uncontracted but not a free agent, so i think those values are at least a peg in the ground for fair compensation.
And yes, i'd be wanting more than that.
Anything less we're getting screwed over and it can go to mediation.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Shai Bolton was effectively a pick 10 and a later first round pick.
Daniel Rioli was pick 6 and pick 23.

He's uncontracted but not a free agent, so i think those values are at least a peg in the ground for fair compensation.
And yes, i'd be wanting more than that.
Anything less we're getting screwed over and it can go to mediation.

Agreed, but it would be a disaster if we were only compensated to that level.

NAS is younger than both those guys, way better than Rioli, and at least equal to Bolton, with much more scope for improvement.

He’s got 10–12 years of elite-level footy in front of him.

 

[Ads734]

My big worry about losing NAS, other than the fact he's an absolute weapon, is that no one is positioned to compensate us fairly for him.

Draft picks-wise, neither Adelaide clubs will have a strong hand, and with all the academy picks due to go early, we could end up with a couple of mid-teens picks at best.

I would demand 3–4 first-round picks and a really good player. Not sure how it gets done. Hopefully it does not eventuate.

Agreed. I think a third club will have to get involved. The only was I can see it happening.

Port
A trade involving butters,

Butter > dogs
Dogs > something massive

something massive to saints

NAS > port

Crows

Worral and Raschele or

Curtain and first plus

Ultimately I agree I can’t believe how short some are selling Naz.

As far as im
Concerned his value is that of JHF or higher. Daicos /Harley Reid trade value…

Should be three firsts including two tens. Don’t care how but that’s the price imo