Opinion Non-Crows AFL 12: It's the confectionery with 1000 uses

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

It’s a scalp we probably need to take.

I’m concerned that the run home has flattered us a bit. It’s not been easy, but the home ground advantage has given a leg up.

Feels like we’ve treated them as mini finals, we have a point to prove, the group is breaking new ground.

But it’s laughable that we’re flag favourites over the last 3 premiers that have been there and done that.

Flattered us? We beat the Bulldogs away in a game where 11 points didn't reflect the game itself (much like the Freo game final margin didn't reflect their dominance). We held the Suns goalless for a half and won by 10 goals. We beat Hawthorn, a bogey team, coming back from 5 goals down, then coming back 2 more times. We beat Port by 98 points in a flood!

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Well if Collingwood do lose to Hawks this week, top 2 for us is then just about guaranteed.

Assumes we defeat West Coast and Roos as one expects to do and our game with Collingwood is irrelevant due to % difference between us and Collingwood.

A loss to Collingwood means Geelong can win out and leapfrog us due to them playing potatoes in their next 3 games. Brisbane will finish ahead of us if they win out from here if we lose to Collingwood.

 

[chazwazza]

Of course. Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong have been preparing for finals since about Week 8. They know what they're doing.

Collingwood resting players for the GC game probably lost them the game and with the way they’re going now, possibly top four. Arguably they may be in a position where they can’t rest players they’d like to for fear of dropping another game.

 

[Samcro24]

Flattered us? We beat the Bulldogs away in a game where 11 points didn't reflect the game itself (much like the Freo game final margin didn't reflect their dominance). We held the Suns goalless for a half and won by 10 goals. We beat Hawthorn, a bogey team, coming back from 5 goals down, then coming back 2 more times. We beat Port by 98 points in a flood!

It’s good form but we set ourselves.
They’re mostly games we haven’t been able to win previously, but not ridiculously difficult games.

If the run home had us playing Collingwood at the G, or Brisbane away, or Geelong away, would we win?

And how would we view our chances now if one of those games burst the bubble?

There’s a bit of a false sense of invincibility at the moment I feel.

 

[Geoffa32]

It’s good form but we set ourselves.
They’re mostly games we haven’t been able to win previously, but not ridiculously difficult games.

If the run home had us playing Collingwood at the G, or Brisbane away, or Geelong away, would we win?

And how would we view our chances now if one of those games burst the bubble?

There’s a bit of a false sense of invincibility at the moment I feel.

We need to beat Collingwood, get that monkey off our back, to have real confidence in September.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

It’s good form but we set ourselves.
They’re mostly games we haven’t been able to win previously, but not ridiculously difficult games.

If the run home had us playing Collingwood at the G, or Brisbane away, or Geelong away, would we win?

And how would we view our chances now if one of those games burst the bubble?

There’s a bit of a false sense of invincibility at the moment I feel.

You're creating a scenario that doesn't exist, then suggesting the Crows fail it, then suggesting how people would react to it. That's a lot of imaginary what if scenarios that just aren't worth worrying about.

 

[Bovo]

Would you be confident in beating them in September if we lose?

Or beating Geelong, if we can't beat an undermanned and out of form Collingwood on our home deck.



It is likely we will need to beat one if these sides in September.


Are we confident if Colli can beat us in a fortnight?

In 98 we lost to North twice in the H&A. They were easily the best team that year. We only beat them once that year. We only needed to beat them once that year.

 

[cleanhands]

It’s good form but we set ourselves.
They’re mostly games we haven’t been able to win previously, but not ridiculously difficult games.

If the run home had us playing Collingwood at the G, or Brisbane away, or Geelong away, would we win?

And how would we view our chances now if one of those games burst the bubble?

There’s a bit of a false sense of invincibility at the moment I feel.

 

[Geoffa32]

In 98 we lost to North twice in the H&A. They were easily the best team that year. We only beat them once that year. We only needed to beat them once that year.

We were also reigning Premiers.




We have gone 7 years without a Final. Very limited Finals experience compared to the big boys. Collingwood being one of them.

I am not saying we can't win Finals if we lose.

But won't be confident.

 

[Bovo]

We were also reigning Premiers.




We have gone 7 years without a Final. Very limited Finals experience compared to the big boys. Collingwood being one of them.

I am not saying we can't win Finals if we lose.

But won't be confident.

To be fair, the current top 5 is bloody scary. I don’t think I’m confident about beating any of them, but the same can be said about us.

 

[pjcrows]

Collingwood resting players for the GC game probably lost them the game and with the way they’re going now, possibly top four. Arguably they may be in a position where they can’t rest players they’d like to for fear of dropping another game.

Alternatively, they've been priming themselves for Hawks and us, knowing that a win there secures Top 4 and they trust themselves to win anywhere in a final.

 

[Bovo]

Alternatively, they've been priming themselves for Hawks and us, knowing that a win there secures Top 4 and they trust themselves to win anywhere in a final.

You’re giving them way too much credit.

 

[Mostyn]

I mean Port's 1st rounders in 26 and 27 could well be a top 5 and Top 10 pick, with Whitlock thrown in, it seems a reasonable deal for a homesick star.... It's more than we got for Danger.

Pick 5, Pick 10 and a young Developing forward is realistically the best St Kilda could hope for anyway.

It'll go down to the wire I'm sure as port will probably ask for a 2nd back or something along those lines that the clubs will squabble over.

How are Port trading first round picks in 2023, 2025, 2026 and 2027?

2027 will have about 10 picks in the first round going to Tasmania, so that's garbage. And Whitlock isn't worth any more than when he was drafted, which was a late pick.

 

[Samcro24]

You're creating a scenario that doesn't exist, then suggesting the Crows fail it, then suggesting how people would react to it. That's a lot of imaginary what if scenarios that just aren't worth worrying about.

Record vs top 8 is sobering

0-1 Collingwood
1-0 Brisbane
0-1 Geelong
0-1 Freo
1-1 Suns
1-1 Hawthorn
1-0 Giants

4-5

 

[Mostyn]

Would you be confident in beating them in September if we lose?

Or beating Geelong, if we can't beat an undermanned and out of form Collingwood on our home deck.



It is likely we will need to beat one if these sides in September.


Are we confident if Colli can beat us in a fortnight?



The other(main ) point to my post is that I was suggesting we should be confident in winning all three games and finishing top. Read the post I quoted.

Not praying to Footy Gods for other results.

If you are doing that, how can you be confident about September.


FWIW I think we will beat Collingwood. Finishing top and go deep into Finals.

Would I be confident?

Why the **** does that matter?

The result of a single game in the run home doesn't affect whether we could win a final. Teams drop games, it's inevitable.

 

[PeterSalt]

Record vs top 8 is sobering

0-1 Collingwood
1-0 Brisbane
0-1 Geelong
0-1 Freo
1-1 Suns
1-1 Hawthorn
1-0 Giants

4-5

You should include the Dogs and do the same exercise for all the teams and it doesn't look all that bad

 

[Bovo]

Port fans furious Melbourne have sacked a premiership coach before they sacked Daddy Donuts

Seems ironic. Goody was part of a handover from Paul Roos. Hinkley is handing over to Carr. There’s a reason Port haven’t just cut ties. I’d be fairly scared to be an AFL coach. The pressure to always win has gotta be insane

 

[GameofSloanes]

The footage of the Dees players mucking around and playing soccer straight after Goodwin's presser is interesting. They look positively giddy.

High even

 

[GameofSloanes]

Nah Houston was always a downhill skiir and was always exposed in tough games. He just is a player who looks good when the pressure is off because he can run and kick long range goals. Actually I think Collingwood probably did pay a fair price. Port were just upset they couldnt con more.

As for Port, they can get NWM I have no doubt they can do a deal. But the question is should they? Ports need to rebuild that list and an upcoming compromised draft will make it telling.

Ports board think they have the list to contend next year. Have been told this by someone who would know. If they get nwm they believe they are top 4

 

[GameofSloanes]

Finals are different though.

Id have Collingwood Brisbane Geelong ahead of us. It’s logical despite home and away records.

Far too many are writing off Collingwood. Even if they miss top 4 they’ll make whoever they play earn it.

It's nice to get away finals at your home ground too

 

[GameofSloanes]

No way ports will finish 13th in 2026 if they have NWM. They’ll finish higher than that.
They’ll have a softer draw , and with a bit of luck less injuries. They’ll be around the top8 mark .

Realistically he’s worth a top 5 pick in a current year draft (in an uncompromised draft) , as well as another top 10 pick.

2 future first rounders that can be up to pick 18 wont cut it.

And yet saints will still have to take it

 

[GameofSloanes]

Record vs top 8 is sobering

0-1 Collingwood
1-0 Brisbane
0-1 Geelong
0-1 Freo
1-1 Suns
1-1 Hawthorn
1-0 Giants

4-5

Record vs top 9 is 5-5 and is about equal 3rd best from memory of the top 9 teams vs each other. Freo actually have the best record

 

[adelaidecrows]

Ports board think they have the list to contend next year. Have been told this by someone who would know. If they get nwm they believe they are top 4

they are seriously delusional.

Every club believes they are top 4 though unless they are actively trying to rebuild. So it wouldnt surprise me that based on zero list assessments completed since last year that they still believe this. I will say that come september there will be a lot of dead wood culled from that list. Terrible defense and a one man forward line hardly makes for a top 4. even with no injuries that list is still dogshit.

 

[Scorpus]

Seems ironic. Goody was part of a handover from Paul Roos. Hinkley is handing over to Carr. There’s a reason Port haven’t just cut ties. I’d be fairly scared to be an AFL coach. The pressure to always win has gotta be insane

That's why they're highly paid

 

[Peter Doherty]

Record vs top 9 is 5-5 and is about equal 3rd best from memory of the top 9 teams vs each other. Freo actually have the best record

Top 9 record against each other now sits as this,

Brisbane 7-4
Geelong 6-4
Freo 6-2
Adelaide 5-5
Collingwood 5-5
GC 5-5
GWS 5-5
Hawthorn 3-6
Bulldogs 2-8