Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Al dente]

Jones was a late bloomer/convert to KPD

and look at Gardy, still not not at his peak at 28

 

[Bulldogs85]

 

[Foxman98]

Fairly pointless article the AFL journo way

Here is 5 players that won't be traded 4 past their use by and the only 1 actually linked

 

[darklake]

100%, I could see a lot of improvement in him getting a lot more involved in games at the start of the season.
Definitely getting stronger and more mature physically.

Yes definitely. But, what I love about Arty most is his attitude.

 

[TheHound]

Honestly we could get the best key defender on the market, but I don’t think you’d see major change under Bevos defensive structure

 

[MaxiBont]

It’d be a hard pitch to make to defenders.

Come join us and be part of a system that would leave you totally exposed!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

But year one was a write off which has set him back massively. With another pre-season and another year of learning/development, he should hopefully be dominating VFL by the end of next year. Dominating the next level down at 21-22-23 is a similar development arc that many late blooming key defenders have followed (Sam Collins, Dale Morris, Tom Stewart, Callum Wilkie, Dane Rampe, Joel Hamling). As some see Busslinger today, many of these guys weren't even deemed to be good enough to be on an AFL list at all (either delisted or never drafted) before their rapid upswings.

But this is a logical fallacy (survivorship bias, cherry picking).

Just because some key defenders develop late or that the proportion of the league's 50-odd best 22 key defenders showed themselves late doesn't mean that every key defender does.

You can't compare Busslinger to the eventual success of the players without the counterfactual that there's dozens of players in similar situations whose careers flamed out.

If all of those names were on the fringes of being good VFL players or bad AFL listed players then you have to compare Busslinger to the entire population of those types of players, not just the ones that eventually found success, the ones you listed.

Why shouldn't we compare Busslinger to someone like Jonathan Marsh who was a key defender for Collingwood in 2015-16, looked okay ish, but never came on as an AFL player depsite some good WAFL form in various positions and a handful of COVID-era games for St Kilda? His draft-delist-state league form story is very similar to Sam Collins but we have just as much argument to suggest that Busslinger's career arc comparison is Marsh as much as we do Collins, if we're going to make the comparison.

Hell, by the logic of some of the posters on this board, we should be expecting 27-year old Kieran Collins to be turning a corner and being a high-quality AFL key defender right about now.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

We're living in a bizarro world where somehow we can't reasonably project the future output of a young player on the basis of the quality of the AFL form that they've shown to date.

People are optimistic about individual players (Busslinger, Sanders) due to some combination of the draft pick they were several years ago and blind faith, but also don't want to extent that blind faith to our coach or tactics in general.

It's also inconsistent. On one hand people believe that we're going to continue to fail to challenge for the flag if we keep down this path with the same coach/tactics, but that's a future universe where the Busses and Sanders of the world emerge as very good players, where by logic holding everything else constant if both has been much better players that's the fine margins we would have needed to be top 4 and challenge for the flag.

Nobody can predict the future, but you can most accurately predict future player output by constantly updating your projections for the form that they show at this age. From a sports point of view there's a body of work in analystics in American sport that does the same thing. There's 20 years of research of people taking statistical output in baseball and using that as the basis of their entire career. https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/projections/

Of course, footy is not baseball, but in the absence of any better way of trying to figure out which 20 year old today will be a good 28 year old, their actual statistical output for the games they do play is at least a correct starting point. But you get attacked for suggesting that is the case.

To suggest that a player is playing poorly at AFL level (Busslinger) might correlate into the future that he'll never ever become a long-term positive value AFL player gets attacked because there have been a handful of late bloomers. Never mind the survivorship bias logical fallacy at plays here. You can take the arguments people are using here for Busslinger and have had them apply to Kieran Collins

Kieran Collins

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

4.0

1star

K

4.0

2star

HB

0.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

1.0

3star

MG

116.0

2star

No current season stats available

D

4.0

1star

K

4.0

2star

HB

0.0

1star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

MG

116.0

2star

10 years ago and the logic behind them would have been identical. All you can do is not be biased either way and just assume a players' AFL performances correlates upon itself. For every player who reaches AFL level level at 29 there is a Jonathan Marsh who looked decent enough in a debut season for Collingwood in 2015 and would have bene a "improving late bloomer" like Rampe or whoever.

 

[VitalDread]

Ryan Burton

3

Ryan Burton

Age

28

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

277.3

4star

D

16.8

4star

K

12.3

5star

HB

4.5

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

MG

277.3

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.4

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.2

4star

would be a neat addition

 

[Foxman98]

Ryan Burton would be a neat addition

If he could stay healthy and on peanuts not the worst shout

 

[VitalDread]

If he could stay healthy and on peanuts not the worst shout

He just got delisted
So would be a free signing

 

[Foxman98]

He just got delisted
So would be a free signing

Was a good user and had a long kick on him could be a decent DFA pick up for the half backline to take some pressure off Dale

 

[Mofra]

But this is a logical fallacy (survivorship bias, cherry picking).

Just because some key defenders develop late or that the proportion of the league's 50-odd best 22 key defenders showed themselves late doesn't mean that every key defender does.

You can't compare Busslinger to the eventual success of the players without the counterfactual that there's dozens of players in similar situations whose careers flamed out.

If all of those names were on the fringes of being good VFL players or bad AFL listed players then you have to compare Busslinger to the entire population of those types of players, not just the ones that eventually found success, the ones you listed.

Why shouldn't we compare Busslinger to someone like Jonathan Marsh who was a key defender for Collingwood in 2015-16, looked okay ish, but never came on as an AFL player depsite some good WAFL form in various positions and a handful of COVID-era games for St Kilda? His draft-delist-state league form story is very similar to Sam Collins but we have just as much argument to suggest that Busslinger's career arc comparison is Marsh as much as we do Collins, if we're going to make the comparison.

Hell, by the logic of some of the posters on this board, we should be expecting 27-year old Kieran Collins to be turning a corner and being a high-quality AFL key defender right about now.

See I'm not sure sure. Jono Marsh was taken late in the draft as a pure athlete because his speed as a tall was ridiculous. There were even suggestions that having him as a KPD was wasting what he was actually good at.
It the natural football stuff he couldn't really improve upon.

Sam Collins is better comparison as he's considered "slow" and took a long time to be ready for week in, week out AFL duties.

Jed is a natural footballer but right now he's playing a role which isn't his real forte. Pre draft I saw him as an interceptor, but his VFL form has really shown he can be that FB in time. He's a few years off having the body ready for it though.

 

[lachy]

See I'm not sure sure. Jono Marsh was taken late in the draft as a pure athlete because his speed as a tall was ridiculous. There were even suggestions that having him as a KPD was wasting what he was actually good at.
It the natural football stuff he couldn't really improve upon.

Sam Collins is better comparison as he's considered "slow" and took a long time to be ready for week in, week out AFL duties.

Jed is a natural footballer but right now he's playing a role which isn't his real forte. Pre draft I saw him as an interceptor, but his VFL form has really shown he can be that FB in time. He's a few years off having the body ready for it though.

I think the point about his body being ready is a key Mofra. Normally takes 4 pre seasons to build up the strength required for 1 v 1 as a minimum as it is the 4th pre season when they take on a 100% role as well as the tank to pressure in that role

Given Jedds original should issues it has probably pushed him back another season.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

See I'm not sure sure. Jono Marsh was taken late in the draft as a pure athlete because his speed as a tall was ridiculous. There were even suggestions that having him as a KPD was wasting what he was actually good at.
It the natural football stuff he couldn't really improve upon.

Sam Collins is better comparison as he's considered "slow" and took a long time to be ready for week in, week out AFL duties.

Jed is a natural footballer but right now he's playing a role which isn't his real forte. Pre draft I saw him as an interceptor, but his VFL form has really shown he can be that FB in time. He's a few years off having the body ready for it though.

I'm not talking about Marsh as a play style I'm just holding him up as a counterfactual as someone who played their best key defensive footy at age 20 or whatever and didn't build upon that in the same logic as the above posters.

How about Caleb Graham, Darragh Joyce, Griffin Logue, Aaron Francis, Ryan Garthwatie, Lewis Young, Harrison Macraedie, Xavier Richards, Michael Talia, Tanner Smith, Hugh Goddard, Henry Schade?

Why didn't all of these key defenders turn a corner and play career best footy in their mid-late 20s? You could present a same argument for them as people are doing here for Busslinger.

 

[Foxman98]

I'm not talking about Marsh as a play style I'm just holding him up as a counterfactual as someone who played their best key defensive footy at age 20 or whatever and didn't build upon that in the same logic as the above posters.

How about Caleb Graham, Darragh Joyce, Griffin Logue, Aaron Francis, Ryan Garthwatie, Lewis Young, Harrison Macraedie, Xavier Richards, Michael Talia, Tanner Smith, Hugh Goddard, Henry Schade?

Why didn't all of these key defenders turn a corner and play career best footy in their mid-late 20s? You could present a same argument for them as people are doing here for Busslinger.

Again most of what you have named are athletic players who had no defensive nouse nor strength

 

[dogwatch]

At some point do we have to ask the question of whether it’s that we just draft players incapable of defending or is it that our coaching staff are incapable of developing players defensively. Foregoing that we clearly need a better defensive game plan and structures.

If you look at our best defensive players under beveridge how many were actually developed in his era?

Morris
Moyd
L Jones
Duryea
Wood
Roberts
Hamling
Keath

Were all developed elsewhere or prior to his era.

In his time who is there?
Dale - more so an offensive attacker than a defender.

Richards - was a hybrid defensive/offensive defender but has moved into the midfield

Lobb - is an interceptor more than a defender.

JOD - still can’t read the play at all or get his positioning right.

Buss - has stagnated and probably should be further along

Cleary - has he really improved defensively was always a defended first type, improvement through confidence and offensively.

Gardner - was never up to it

Williams - probably the one that was developed the most defensively in Bevo’s time

It’s odd because I’m pretty sure Bevo was Hawthorn’s defensive coach before joining us. It should have been his strength.

 

[lachy]

I'm not talking about Marsh as a play style I'm just holding him up as a counterfactual as someone who played their best key defensive footy at age 20 or whatever and didn't build upon that in the same logic as the above posters.

How about Caleb Graham, Darragh Joyce, Griffin Logue, Aaron Francis, Ryan Garthwatie, Lewis Young, Harrison Macraedie, Xavier Richards, Michael Talia, Tanner Smith, Hugh Goddard, Henry Schade?

Why didn't all of these key defenders turn a corner and play career best footy in their mid-late 20s? You could present a same argument for them as people are doing here for Busslinger.

The only argument anyone is putting forward for Buss is he is young, not close to physically ready for the role he has been earmarked for and has not been as bad as some are pointing out. 1 V 1 KPD's in general take until they have had at least 1 full pre season at 100% under their belts which normally occurs in year 4 on the list

These are basic facts, so what you are actually arguing?

 

[MaxiBont]

I'm not talking about Marsh as a play style I'm just holding him up as a counterfactual as someone who played their best key defensive footy at age 20 or whatever and didn't build upon that in the same logic as the above posters.

How about Caleb Graham, Darragh Joyce, Griffin Logue, Aaron Francis, Ryan Garthwatie, Lewis Young, Harrison Macraedie, Xavier Richards, Michael Talia, Tanner Smith, Hugh Goddard, Henry Schade?

Why didn't all of these key defenders turn a corner and play career best footy in their mid-late 20s? You could present a same argument for them as people are doing here for Busslinger.

I don’t think there’s any reason to predict a young player who has shown promise at AFL level won’t get better. I think at least till it’s clear there’s no improvement happening. That’s not the case yet for Sanders and Buss.

Buss has only played 7 games. Next year will be big for him to see if he improves and be more relied upon.

Sanders had games where he looked way better than last year which I think is one of the more important things for 2nd year players.

 

[Mofra]

I'm not talking about Marsh as a play style I'm just holding him up as a counterfactual as someone who played their best key defensive footy at age 20 or whatever and didn't build upon that in the same logic as the above posters.

How about Caleb Graham, Darragh Joyce, Griffin Logue, Aaron Francis, Ryan Garthwatie, Lewis Young, Harrison Macraedie, Xavier Richards, Michael Talia, Tanner Smith, Hugh Goddard, Henry Schade?

Why didn't all of these key defenders turn a corner and play career best footy in their mid-late 20s? You could present a same argument for them as people are doing here for Busslinger.

It depends what is holding them back. Is it physicality or talent?

That's assuming they played their best footy as a 20 year old KPD, what I'm not sure any of them did. Just the ones I remember better than others:

Caleb Graham played more games as a ruck than he did as a KPD early in his career due to the GCS ruck crisis.
Talia had his own issues, mostly off field.
Francis played his best footy as a forward the past two years and never had the tank early on.
Lewis Young was a late fringe pick who played almost as much forward and ruck with us.

I'd expect if you lined up the KPDs comp wide who played 50+ games, the list of guys who peaked at age 20 would be tiny compared to everyone else.

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Ryan Burton would be a neat addition

Port fans don’t seem to like him too much. One of the first to drop his head and give up when things aren’t going well.

Considering our issues with stopping long stretches of domination from other sides, I’m not sure he’d do a lot to improve that aspect. If it’s Coffield out and Burton in as a minimum cost DFA then sure, give it a go. But I wouldn’t be banking on him moving the needle at all

 

[Guido]

But this is a logical fallacy (survivorship bias, cherry picking).

Just because some key defenders develop late or that the proportion of the league's 50-odd best 22 key defenders showed themselves late doesn't mean that every key defender does.

You can't compare Busslinger to the eventual success of the players without the counterfactual that there's dozens of players in similar situations whose careers flamed out.

If all of those names were on the fringes of being good VFL players or bad AFL listed players then you have to compare Busslinger to the entire population of those types of players, not just the ones that eventually found success, the ones you listed.

Why shouldn't we compare Busslinger to someone like Jonathan Marsh who was a key defender for Collingwood in 2015-16, looked okay ish, but never came on as an AFL player depsite some good WAFL form in various positions and a handful of COVID-era games for St Kilda? His draft-delist-state league form story is very similar to Sam Collins but we have just as much argument to suggest that Busslinger's career arc comparison is Marsh as much as we do Collins, if we're going to make the comparison.

Hell, by the logic of some of the posters on this board, we should be expecting 27-year old Kieran Collins to be turning a corner and being a high-quality AFL key defender right about now.

Jesus man, at no point did I say "because these guys were late maturers and ended up being excellent, Busslinger will do the same". It goes without saying that he might not step up and not make it, as have hundreds of others

In fact, if you read the post, I think it's pretty clear that I have doubts about whether he will make it. All I'm saying is that there are precedents of some key defenders being seen as rubbish at 20-21, and coming on.

A few people have made a definitive call that he won't make it, I think given the history of lot of quality key defenders, a more complete judgement on him should be in 12-18 months, especially given he lost half his under 18s year and most of his first year on the list to injury.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The only argument anyone is putting forward for Buss is he is young, not close to physically ready for the role he has been earmarked for and has not been as bad as some are pointing out. 1 V 1 KPD's in general take until they have had at least 1 full pre season at 100% under their belts which normally occurs in year 4 on the list

These are basic facts, so what you are actually arguing?

All of what you said could have been equally true for that list of players, that's my argument

All of them played AFL gams before the age of 22 and before they had 4 AFL pre-seasons. All of them could have built their body up until their mid 20's but didn't, they flamed out and were off AFL lists by the mid 20s. Why can't we be generous to those players that they should have peaked as a player in their mid-late 20s?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It depends what is holding them back. Odd it physicality or talent?

That's assuming they played their best footy as a 20 year old KPD, what I'm not sure any of them did. Just the ones I remember better than others:

Caleb Graham played more games as a ruck than he did as a KPD early in his career due to the GCS ruck crisis.
Talia had his own issues, mostly off field.
Francis played his best footy as a forward the past two years and never had the tank early on.
Lewis Young was a late fringe pick who played almost as much forward and ruck with us.

I'd expect if you lined up the KPDs comp wide who played 50+ games, the list of guys who peaked at age 20 would be tiny compared to everyone else.

I can go on and on Mof.

Jack Nielsen, Max Spencer, Oscar McDonald, Oscar Clavarino, Denver Grainger-Barrass, Emerson Jeka, Caleb Marchbank.

And you're assuming that Buss even gets to 50+ games which is part of the argument here that he may never reach that.

 

[Mofra]

I can go on and on Mof.

Jack Nielsen, Max Spencer, Oscar McDonald, Oscar Clavarino, Denver Grainger-Barrass, Emerson Jeka, Caleb Marchbank.

And you're assuming that Buss even gets to 50+ games which is part of the argument here that he may never reach that.

Which one of those guys peaked at 20 though?