The Premiership favourite- 2025

[LukeParkerno1]

Well I'd say GWS or Hawthorn combined are more likely than Collingwood.

If Melbourne weren't diabolical in that last quarter they should've cruised to at least a 2 goal victory and the Pies would be out of the 4. And if the umpires didn't crucify the Suns for lolly teeth Ken and Boaky.

A good side beats a Port side halfway to Bali regardless, bad kicking is bad footy, they kept kicking it to their one good intercept defender all night long a few iffy umpire calls should have meant diddly squat. Pies deserve their position in the 4, the rest outside the 4 are as flaky as can be all year. The fact that GWS are 5th despite their yo yo season says it all, Freo needed a win to make it and well the Suns love a flat track against a bottom 8 side. I'll give Hawthorn an out they have been decimated in very key areas not that other clubs don't have injuries but your Weddle, Day, etc are cruicial, think they are a 1-2 years away regardless.

 

[Fadge]

All.the top 8 have beaten Collingwood this year

Just lulling you all into a false sense of security...

 

[BigVic]

The lines connecting the qualifiers to the semis and prelim are all screwed up

It's from Wikipedia

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

It's from Wikipedia

Which page because none of the others look that bad

 

[BigVic]

The AFL Finals Series page.

 

[numbat06]

You'd be a brave man to bet against Brisbane going B2B

 

[StillAtLarge]

You'd be a brave man to bet against Brisbane going B2B

Really? I mean Sam Day is getting games, the big O is absent, Payne is out for the year and Berry & Neale will be carrying injuries into September. I don't think they're anywhere near the team they were at the back end of last year

 

[Hobbes]

Really? I mean Sam Day is getting games, the big O is absent, Payne is out for the year and Berry & Neale will be carrying injuries into September. I don't think they're anywhere near the team they were at the back end of last year

Brisbane has injury worries.
Geelong hasn’t beaten a contender for nearly three months
Adelaide hasn’t played finals for eight years.

And Collingwood’s form is so irredeemably shite that they can practically be ruled out despite the above concerns.

 

[StillAtLarge]

Brisbane has injury worries.
Geelong hasn’t beaten a contender for nearly three months
Adelaide hasn’t played finals for eight years.

The Crows do play two showdowns a year though which I would argue are played in a finals like atmosphere & intensity. Would not be at all surprised to see an Adelaide v Freo prelim

 

[Hobbes]

The Crows do play two showdowns a year though which I would argue are played in a finals like atmosphere & intensity. Would not be at all surprised to see an Adelaide v Freo prelim

Recent games against Hawthorn and Collingwood were also a bit finalsesque.

 

[Nunez]

Really? I mean Sam Day is getting games, the big O is absent, Payne is out for the year and Berry & Neale will be carrying injuries into September. I don't think they're anywhere near the team they were at the back end of last year

Day plays a role
Fort has kept O out thank to his form.
Payne out sucks, but Gardiner playing his role well.
Berry and Neale could have played v Hawks but we have them extra time and are cherry ripe.

Hipwood and Payne are the only outs of concern, but the team as a whole is humming.

 

[mpal6]

Day plays a role
Fort has kept O out thank to his form.
Payne out sucks, but Gardiner playing his role well.
Berry and Neale could have played v Hawks but we have them extra time and are cherry ripe.

Hipwood and Payne are the only outs of concern, but the team as a whole is humming.

Nope, please disregard everything this poster said. We're limping badly.

 

[Hobbes]

Lots of it's and but's in your 'analysis'....

But let's test your 'theory'...

Let's say the Pies are a 40% chance of beating Adelaide on Thursday night (at least that's what the bookies are suggesting). And if they lose, they're a 40% chance of winning the semi final the following week (that's what you're suggesting, though it will probably be an even money game).

Pies to get to a Prelim: 0.4 + (0.4 × 0.6) = 64%

Then the Elimination Final is a 50/50 game, with the winner a 60% chance to beat Collingwood (if they play them) the following week, but a 40% chance to beat Adelaide should the Pies win on Thursday.

Hawks/GWS to get to a Prelim: 0.5 × ((0.6×0.6) + (0.4×0.4)) = 26% each.

Or a 52% chance that one of Hawks and GWS reaches the Preliminary Final.

Oops, wrong again....

Given Collingwood’s recent form, 40% is very generous.

Try the sums again with 20%.

 

[paulige]

Given Collingwood’s recent form, 40% is very generous.

Try the sums again with 20%.

Market odds suggest 42%.

 

[Fadge]

Given Collingwood’s recent form, 40% is very generous.

Try the sums again with 20%.

Yeah, sorry for using the same probability as every betting agency in the country.

 

[Hobbes]

Yeah, sorry for using the same probability as every betting agency in the country.

They generally follow the money, not the odds. And the money can be stupid.

 

[Fadge]

They generally follow the money, not the odds. And the money can be stupid.

Yeah, just a coincidence that all betting agencies are offering the same odds.

If you believe Adelaide are so much more likely to win than the bookmakers are suggesting, I hope you're putting your money where your mouth is?

 

[YeoShuey]

Given Collingwood’s recent form, 40% is very generous.

Try the sums again with 20%.

20%? Crazy.

Have you seen the record between these two teams? Almost 50/50 with a slight advantage Adelaide. Cox being in only benefits Adelaide though

 

[Cool Kangas]

FWIW I think it’ll be more like who will Brisbane play in the GF.

 

[Hobbes]

20%? Crazy.

Have you seen the record between these two teams? Almost 50/50 with a slight advantage Adelaide. Cox being in only benefits Adelaide though

On Collingwood’s formline, 20% is generous. Their last seven matches is the stuff of teams finishing 12-15.

I guess you would have us believe that they were really favourites against Hawthorn and Brisbane

 

[Fadge]

On Collingwood’s formline, 20% is generous. Their last seven matches is the stuff of teams finishing 12-15.

I guess you would have us believe that they were really favourites against Hawthorn and Brisbane

Gee, it has been a while since you've seen your team play finals, hasn't it?

 

[YeoShuey]

On Collingwood’s formline, 20% is generous. Their last seven matches is the stuff of teams finishing 12-15.

I guess you would have us believe that they were really favourites against Hawthorn and Brisbane

What is their form like against Hawthorn in recent times? WLWLWL for the past few games.

Been winning by small margins against Adelaide a lot in recent times. Sometimes it is not about the teams current form, but about the matchup taking place.

 

[Hobbes]

What is their form like against Hawthorn in recent times? WLWLWL for the past few games.

Been winning by small margins against Adelaide a lot in recent times. Sometimes it is not about the teams current form, but about the matchup taking place.

Adelaide has this year been responding to head-to-head losing streaks with fifteen goal wins.

 

[YeoShuey]

Adelaide has this year been responding to head-to-head losing streaks with fifteen goal wins.

Did they do that about 2 rounds ago against Collingwood? Nope. From memory, it was about 6 points.

Collingwood's last 2 matches (Adelaide, Melbourne) are not much to read into given that they are always a good matchup.

 

[Fadge]

Given Collingwood’s recent form, 40% is very generous.

Try the sums again with 20%.

Still think a Collingwood win is a 20% probability?