- Oct 4, 2015
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This will just encourage tanking and draft tampering...
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Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II
- Thread starter Aphrodite
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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This will just encourage tanking and draft tampering...
- Oct 7, 2014
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Absolutely.
how do you know where the bid is going to come from to ensure you have enough to cover it? Especially if the bid comes at 1 or 2 as it probably will for Cody. The only way this works is if the clubs who have 1 or 2 notify their intent to take the player and actually then bid on them on the night. This intention needs to be forecast before the trade period starts. How else do you know what you need in your back pocket to match with 2 bids?
The AFL have got no idea… this will not work and in two years when it’s a shit show with Cody and Bewick they’ll change it back. At that stage Essendon and Carlton would have lost out. Either through missing the player or giving up absolutely stupid capital to keep them.
The AFL have got no idea… this will not work and in two years when it’s a shit show with Cody and Bewick they’ll change it back. At that stage Essendon and Carlton would have lost out. Either through missing the player or giving up absolutely stupid capital to keep them.
- Jul 13, 2018
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Yup, absolute clowns haven't considered unintended consequences, will end up changing it again when it doesn't work
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sregit
Premiership Player
Sorry for the intrusion.
I can fully understand the timing of FS and NGA rule changes has a massive effect on the cost for the Blues to get Walker on your list. However, talk of hiding him to lower his likely draft position is futile. Every club in the competition is looking at him as the number one pick. He will be a star and will get to the Blues but you will be forced to pay the price. It’s unlikely your TDK compo will get you a top 12 pick next year. Trading out a player like Curnow seems you best chance of obtaining the necessary collateral.
He will be number one. Expensive but worth it.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Cody looks like a lock for top 3-5, but I don't think you can/should ever anoint a player as a definite #1 pick 12 months out.
Firstly, Cochrane seems just as likely as #1
Otherwise, Cody could have injuries, he could plateau, other players could rise.
I'd love to run some stats on consensus #1 picks 12 months out and where they end up landing. Not to mention that F/S or Academy kids rated at #1 are more likely to be picked at #2-3 anyway (at least under the current system).
The idea of taking Cody with a first before a bid seems wrong to me. Surely, we'd just trade 'down' at that pick to maximise currency OR take another highly-rated player.
We're already getting screwed by the rule change timing - forgoing any discount whatsoever doesn't sit well with me.
We're already getting screwed by the rule change timing - forgoing any discount whatsoever doesn't sit well with me.
sregit
Premiership Player
He’ll be pick 1, 2 at worst. Under the current system teams would not nominate a tied player early as the bid would be matched with garbage picks. So it was pointless, however, there is a chance with this likely new system that the team that bids can get the player. Carlton will get walker regardless but his cost will be high.
Carlton will get Dean for a packet of chips this year by trading out your TDK compo into next year and paying with later picks.
Not sure how the AFL doesn’t have the foresight to see the outcomes.
Also, clubs being bent over to obtain top picks to secure their nominations.
- Jun 20, 2019
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There a quite a few balls in the air for us with F/S this year and next year, F/S rules changes, and potential Charlie trade. But just on the 2 pick, and possibility of a deficit, let's say we didn't have enough points for Walker next year, could a deficit apply to following draft year, moving the first draft pick back by a similar number of points?
- Oct 4, 2015
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Agree with everything you said.
Unfortunately for us, with the rumoured rules, if we don't plan ahead, we might miss out on him...
Even if we do that, we still could miss out because b1 compo picks push other picks back... so the points you think you have aren't exactly accurate...
2 picks only is the dumbest way to handle it. Two top 10 picks in a strong draft usually has trade value of an A grader in their prime... to be forced into spending that on a kid with all the unknowns is incredibly expensive...
sregit
Premiership Player
You’re correct. Carlton as an example could hold 2 first round picks, enough for walker but if a club lower than Carlton loses a good player to FA the compo pick could push Carlton’s 2 picks back and you’d no longer have enough draft points. It is ridiculously complicated. You also can not go into deficit as a future first round pick is calculated at the points value equal to pick 18.
With the up coming changes to Academy and Father Sons, I have a suspicion the new changes won't be as drastic as stated. They always leak overs to soften the blow when they do make the change. I can see it harder to get multiple FS/Academy picks in a year or in 2-4 year window.
Also found it interesting that the said changes weren't announced with the others this week as it was stated to be. Obviously, push back and still working out the details.
Also found it interesting that the said changes weren't announced with the others this week as it was stated to be. Obviously, push back and still working out the details.
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
In terms of strategy to get Cody I think trying to go into next draft with 3 first rounders should cover us well.
It can be hard to remember at times, but clubs move up and down the ladder significantly between years.
If you had traded in 2024 for The future firsts of Gold Coast , Sydney and St Kilda and project the expected value of each individual pick you get
Gold Coast (pick 6) st Kilda (pick 7) Sydney (pick 17)
Gold Coast (pick 13) Sydney (pick 9) St Kilda (pick 7).
But the points value is pretty similar
2024 results: 4038 points
2025 results: 3978
A difference of 60 points.
Of course we are deliberately not accounting for FA picks and bids because that's too unknowable this far out.
Point is, having more picks in the first round makes the chances of having enough points much higher.
It can be hard to remember at times, but clubs move up and down the ladder significantly between years.
If you had traded in 2024 for The future firsts of Gold Coast , Sydney and St Kilda and project the expected value of each individual pick you get
Gold Coast (pick 6) st Kilda (pick 7) Sydney (pick 17)
Gold Coast (pick 13) Sydney (pick 9) St Kilda (pick 7).
But the points value is pretty similar
2024 results: 4038 points
2025 results: 3978
A difference of 60 points.
Of course we are deliberately not accounting for FA picks and bids because that's too unknowable this far out.
Point is, having more picks in the first round makes the chances of having enough points much higher.
I can see us offering our future 1st and maybe second for a top sides current first in regards to Walker currency. If we get stuck. We'll get him.
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- May 1, 2002
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Sorry but the very fact we need 3 first rounders to halp us draft a father son is a disgrace and the AFL are destroying us by making us sell the farm and not progress with multiple options.
Blue and Silver
Brownlow Medallist
We don't NEED 3 first rounders. But I think that this is the safest strategy.
But point taken about the administration
- Nov 27, 2016
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Should model himself on Dunkley
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ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
I think the mooted lockout was the AFL's ambit claim that they had pre-planned to walk back...
- Moderator
- #3,121
we drafted a 12 month out consensus #1 last year at #3 for example
- Mar 25, 2019
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It will in future years that's for sure. 2026 won't be effected imo.
If we're forecasting ahead to Arli for instance, there's no reason for us to expose him to the pathways as much as he normally would be now.
Cody is unfortunately a lost cause. He's going top 5 whether he plays next year or not.
- Moderator
- #3,123
2025 Roibert Walls trophy winner Dunkley? i guess also 3 time premiership winner Dunkley?
No doubt. Still think the scenario Jon Ralph tweeted out is still a higher threshold than what will come in.
I think the system will be what he tweeted. Just not the picks needed because Jon can't do math.
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