Analysis 2026 - The Way Forward

[Nuggetz]

I'd be requesting multiple MCG games for the end of next season. It might have no bearing on GF performance but having some familiarity with the ground & hopefully big games leading into the finals could help if we do make the GF.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

Is the way forward simply having Logan and Joel playing a full season ? Kicking to a forward line with zero chance of someone taking a mark was soul destroying. Logan’s good for 40 or so goals. Think we missed that.

Get them On the park and we may just move up to 9th I reckon.

 

[rustycrate]

Is the way forward simply having Logan and Joel playing a full season ? Kicking to a forward line with zero chance of someone taking a mark was soul destroying. Logan’s good for 40 or so goals. Think we missed that.

Get them On the park and we may just move up to 9th I reckon.

6-7 I think. We will be thereabouts.

I like fast posters.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

Watching the Lions press conference after the GF, three things stood out for me - time stamps so you can see the recent sections, link at the end.

13:00 - Fagan is asked about how the young players keep delivering. He says he doesn’t put limits on them and encourages them to be themself on the field. I think I would struggle to think of a rookie swan in the last 2-3 years that has been themself from day dot. I think the swans need to do this better and take more risks on a player not yet being able to perfectly play the mid role or pull off a play, and balance that risk against the upside of them playing at their full potential.

15:30 - Ashcroft emphasises that they are very process focused in game. Whether the game is going for them or against them, they just keep playing to their process. My sense is that the swans are good at being process focused in prep for games but poor during games. This is why we see so many run ons against us. We get stuck in our heads. Cox needs to find a way to break this (noting letting players be themselves will go a long way, so they are not worried about what could go wrong).

Whole video - Fagan’s understated self confidence. I’d love to see Cox being a bit more confident in himself next year. He seems eager to agree with journalists and cite stat after stat to justify what he is saying. He is similar with the playing group from the videos I have seen. I’d love to see him back his voice in and be more comfortable. I’m hoping Goodwin can help with this.

'It was a bold plan, and it's come off': Fagan, post Grand Final

Watch Brisbane’s press conference after their Grand Final match against Geelong

www.afl.com.au

 

[Kiama Chris]

Watching the Lions press conference after the GF, three things stood out for me - time stamps so you can see the recent sections, link at the end.

13:00 - Fagan is asked about how the young players keep delivering. He says he doesn’t put limits on them and encourages them to be themself on the field. I think I would struggle to think of a rookie swan in the last 2-3 years that has been themself from day dot. I think the swans need to do this better and take more risks on a player not yet being able to perfectly play the mid role or pull off a play, and balance that risk against the upside of them playing at their full potential.

15:30 - Ashcroft emphasises that they are very process focused in game. Whether the game is going for them or against them, they just keep playing to their process. My sense is that the swans are good at being process focused in prep for games but poor during games. This is why we see so many run ons against us. We get stuck in our heads. Cox needs to find a way to break this (noting letting players be themselves will go a long way, so they are not worried about what could go wrong).

Whole video - Fagan’s understated self confidence. I’d love to see Cox being a bit more confident in himself next year. He seems eager to agree with journalists and cite stat after stat to justify what he is saying. He is similar with the playing group from the videos I have seen. I’d love to see him back his voice in and be more comfortable. I’m hoping Goodwin can help with this.

'It was a bold plan, and it's come off': Fagan, post Grand Final

Watch Brisbane’s press conference after their Grand Final match against Geelong

www.afl.com.au

Well observed. You can't win a Grand Final without belief/confidence, not to mention adrenaline.

 

[Kiama Chris]

An oft-repeated theme. The last 4 teams in the finals each had a gun interceptor and at least two tallish stoppers. Cats lost their interceptor and Pies had the weakest stoppers.
Their medium and small defenders were all effective though not necessarily world beaters.
Even if we don't trade someone in we actually have the cattle. Perhaps not quite to the standard of Brisbane but pretty much equal to the other three and at least as good as Adelaide.
Now play them in the right roles and build their connection and confidence.
Interceptor McCartin
Tall Stoppers Melican, Hamling (Edwards, Snell)
Small/Medium Stoppers Wicks, Cunningham (Roberts, Rampe, Carmichael)
Distributors Blakey, Bice
Bite the bullet and either let Rampe go or play him in 2s as a mentor.
Play Mills in the mids and drop back only in emergency.
Let Blakey play loose at the front of defence almost as a winger ready to receive and take off or deliver or drop back.
If we trade in a gun so much the better but TBH I can't see it happening.

 

[Neverwas]

An oft-repeated theme. The last 4 teams in the finals each had a gun interceptor and at least two tallish stoppers. Cats lost their interceptor and Pies had the weakest stoppers.
Their medium and small defenders were all effective though not necessarily world beaters.
Even if we don't trade someone in we actually have the cattle. Perhaps not quite to the standard of Brisbane but pretty much equal to the other three and at least as good as Adelaide.
Now play them in the right roles and build their connection and confidence.
Interceptor McCartin
Tall Stoppers Melican, Hamling (Edwards, Snell)
Small/Medium Stoppers Wicks, Cunningham (Roberts, Rampe, Carmichael)
Distributors Blakey, Bice
Bite the bullet and either let Rampe go or play him in 2s as a mentor.
Play Mills in the mids and drop back only in emergency.
Let Blakey play loose at the front of defence almost as a winger ready to receive and take off or deliver or drop back.
If we trade in a gun so much the better but TBH I can't see it happening.

Totally agree Chris. Most on here underestimate our list.

What happened to Geelong yesterday serves to illustrate the things that can happen in a grand final; as happened to us in our grand final.

In ours, we lost Mc Donald in the first quarter and Heeney was playing with a stress fracture by half time and we were left one down on the bench.Apart from that, the weird game plan we had did not help

Yesterday Cameron was playing with a broken arm, and their matchwinner, Dangerfield, puts in a mediocre game after a blinder the week before.( I suspected this could happen after the old bloke played exceptionally well after his two week rest, I didn't think he could do it again after only a week).

The parallels with our grand final are stark. Two stars down and one down on the bench. No way you can match it for a full game under that pressure.The scores reflected this.

If anything, this should make our guys better about themselves.

Putting our side in the boots of Geelong yesterday, you can easily see Cunners nullifying Charlie Cameron as he usually does, and Grundy taking control in the ruck amongst other things. This is the side we beat just a few weeks back.

We are still in the window with our current list.

 

[Kiama Chris]

An oft-repeated theme. The last 4 teams in the finals each had a gun interceptor and at least two tallish stoppers. Cats lost their interceptor and Pies had the weakest stoppers.
Their medium and small defenders were all effective though not necessarily world beaters.
Even if we don't trade someone in we actually have the cattle. Perhaps not quite to the standard of Brisbane but pretty much equal to the other three and at least as good as Adelaide.
Now play them in the right roles and build their connection and confidence.
Interceptor McCartin
Tall Stoppers Melican, Hamling (Edwards, Snell)
Small/Medium Stoppers Wicks, Cunningham (Roberts, Rampe, Carmichael)
Distributors Blakey, Bice
Bite the bullet and either let Rampe go or play him in 2s as a mentor.
Play Mills in the mids and drop back only in emergency.
Let Blakey play loose at the front of defence almost as a winger ready to receive and take off or deliver or drop back.
If we trade in a gun so much the better but TBH I can't see it happening.

To the forwards. As the ruck relief will probably be part of this cohort I'll include him.
Consensus appears to be that we are attempting to land a fish but the signs ain't great so I'm going to assume that we don't. I'm also going to assume a 5 man bench.
Relief ruck will need to be Ladhams if still here or McLean. Green isn't physically ready for more than a cameo if necessary. He will be able to spend about half his time relieving the two tall forwards (note two, not 3 structurally - a point for discussion).
At this stage those two would be Amartey and McDonald. The lack of a backup is a real issue and should be a focus of retention, trade or draft.
King maybe third tall but probably not until 2027.
We have two good quality smalls in Papley and Hayward and some new/young/borderlines in Dattoli, Rosas, Warner, Campbell and Hanily. Add in resting mids and numbers aren't a problem but as yet not the impact that some other teams have.
Fit and near their best, supported by Heeney, Warner, Gulden, McInerney and Mills this could get back to 2024 levels.
Trading in a gun would be nice but improvement in the smalls might have more impact. Coaching a key here I think.

 

[Kiama Chris]

To the forwards. As the ruck relief will probably be part of this cohort I'll include him.
Consensus appears to be that we are attempting to land a fish but the signs ain't great so I'm going to assume that we don't. I'm also going to assume a 5 man bench.
Relief ruck will need to be Ladhams if still here or McLean. Green isn't physically ready for more than a cameo if necessary. He will be able to spend about half his time relieving the two tall forwards (note two, not 3 structurally - a point for discussion).
At this stage those two would be Amartey and McDonald. The lack of a backup is a real issue and should be a focus of retention, trade or draft.
King maybe third tall but probably not until 2027.
We have two good quality smalls in Papley and Hayward and some new/young/borderlines in Dattoli, Rosas, Warner, Campbell and Hanily. Add in resting mids and numbers aren't a problem but as yet not the impact that some other teams have.
Fit and near their best, supported by Heeney, Warner, Gulden, McInerney and Mills this could get back to 2024 levels.
Trading in a gun would be nice but improvement in the smalls might have more impact. Coaching a key here I think.

To the mids:
So Trac has requested a trade. That is one trade that would significantly improve us and is virtually risk free. Sell the farm. Plenty of us can talk about what he would bring. I'll just leave it there.
With 7 defenders, 2 rucks and 5 forwards (2 tall, 3 small) you need 9 with a 5 man bench.
No Mills in defence, must play in the midfield. Mills, Heeney and Trac as the big bodies.
Rowie and Sheldrick as the defensive mids.
Errol and Chad as the "breakouts".
Juzzy and Braeden as the "run throughs".
JJ, Caiden and Corey in reserve.
Don't think about it in traditional position terms. Think how Brisbane use their midfield/small/medium flotilla.
By all means discuss "so and so is better than such and such" but start thinking in modern terms.
Assuming that Florent is gone or is in reserve.
Assuming we have burnt our first pick on Trac.

 

[Nuggetz]

To the mids:
So Trac has requested a trade. That is one trade that would significantly improve us and is virtually risk free. Sell the farm. Plenty of us can talk about what he would bring. I'll just leave it there.
With 7 defenders, 2 rucks and 5 forwards (2 tall, 3 small) you need 9 with a 5 man bench.
No Mills in defence, must play in the midfield. Mills, Heeney and Trac as the big bodies.
Rowie and Sheldrick as the defensive mids.
Errol and Chad as the "breakouts".
Juzzy and Braeden as the "run throughs".
JJ, Caiden and Corey in reserve.
Don't think about it in traditional position terms. Think how Brisbane use their midfield/small/medium flotilla.
By all means discuss "so and so is better than such and such" but start thinking in modern terms.
Assuming that Florent is gone or is in reserve.
Assuming we have burnt our first pick on Trac.

I'd add Papley through the mids too for that burst type play. Maybe not Braedan, I'd like him to focus on a specific role/position to build consistent performances. I don't know if there's a good role suited for Sheldrick if Mills & Rowbottom are both in the midfield rotation. Getting a Trac type gives us options to be a bit more unpredictable through the midfield & fwd 50. Great post, love the analysis.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I'd add Papley through the mids too for that burst type play. Maybe not Braedan, I'd like him to focus on a specific role/position to build consistent performances. I don't know if there's a good role suited for Sheldrick if Mills & Rowbottom are both in the midfield rotation. Getting a Trac type gives us options to be a bit more unpredictable through the midfield & fwd 50. Great post, love the analysis.

Papley and possibly Rosas too for an occasional burst. Dattoli wants to end up there too. I'd like to see Mills playing with a more positive mindset that should leave space for Sheldrick. A role for JJ to me is dependant on whether we keep running a tagger. Him or Rowie? I really believe we need to rethink our approach and the Lions is a good place to start.
Every time Lloyd gets the ball and stops so does my heart. Just kills momentum.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

For the swans to seriously contend, the following need to be in the ressies with better players pushing them out:

Lloyd
Roberts
Rampe
Florent
Bice
Mclean
Ladhams (or limited time as sub for Grundy)
Hanily
Hamling

I’ve probably missed a couple. We ain’t winning Jack or I dare say even making finals if the above are regular fixtures in 2026.

So we need a good trade and draft and for people like Cleary, Sheldrick, Dattoli, Snell/Edwards to make it and make it fast.

 

[crankygeese]

I think if we go into 2026 with a fully fit list that looks something like this, I'll be pretty happy.
Coverage on every line, some genuine depth and some developing youngsters that should have hunger.

FB	Serong	McCartin	Wicks
HB	Blakey	Melican	McInerney
C	Gulden	Rowbottom	Mills
HF	Hayward	McDonald	Papley
FF	Dattoli	Amartey	Rosas
R	Grundy	Heeney	Warner
BENCH	Ladhams	Campbell	Sheldrick	Roberts	Jordon
DEPTH	Florent	Rampe	Lloyd	Adams	Cunningham	McLean	Cleary	CoWarner	Bice
DEPTH	Hamling	Snell	Carmichael	Bowman	King	Green

 

[Crust]

Pav
Goodwin
Campbell
Laidler
Mighty Mal

If that ain’t a shake up I don’t know what is.

Makes me very excited for next season.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

I think if we go into 2026 with a fully fit list that looks something like this, I'll be pretty happy.
Coverage on every line, some genuine depth and some developing youngsters that should have hunger.

FB	Serong	McCartin	Wicks
HB	Blakey	Melican	McInerney
C	Gulden	Rowbottom	Mills
HF	Hayward	McDonald	Papley
FF	Dattoli	Amartey	Rosas
R	Grundy	Heeney	Warner
BENCH	Ladhams	Campbell	Sheldrick	Roberts	Jordon
DEPTH	Florent	Rampe	Lloyd	Adams	Cunningham	McLean	Cleary	CoWarner	Bice
DEPTH	Hamling	Snell	Carmichael	Bowman	King	Green

Very good but It’s missing Showtime Charlie !

If he goes in and we keep Will - Hayward could be the gut busting contested mid rotating through - he’d be great at that. Logan can drop back to defence if needed during a game freeing up the Lizard to go wild.

Cleary / Bice ahead of Roberts I reckon.

Without Charlie I get worried about being over reliant on Heens to kick enough goals.

 

[MF]

I think if we go into 2026 with a fully fit list that looks something like this, I'll be pretty happy.
Coverage on every line, some genuine depth and some developing youngsters that should have hunger.

FB	Serong	McCartin	Wicks
HB	Blakey	Melican	McInerney
C	Gulden	Rowbottom	Mills
HF	Hayward	McDonald	Papley
FF	Dattoli	Amartey	Rosas
R	Grundy	Heeney	Warner
BENCH	Ladhams	Campbell	Sheldrick	Roberts	Jordon
DEPTH	Florent	Rampe	Lloyd	Adams	Cunningham	McLean	Cleary	CoWarner	Bice
DEPTH	Hamling	Snell	Carmichael	Bowman	King	Green

Cunningham depth? Get out

 

[crankygeese]

Cunningham depth? Get out

Haha. Sorry.

In all honesty, Cunningham has been a brilliant servant of our club for many years, but if our younger blokes can't push him down the depth chart this preseason I'm worried for us.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Haha. Sorry.

In all honesty, Cunningham has been a brilliant servant of our club for many years, but if our younger blokes can't push him down the depth chart this preseason I'm worried for us.

I wouldn't be worried at all. Three reasons:
1) Harry is showing no signs of being near the cliff physically or mentally. His legs holding up well and he's 32 at the beginning of next season.
2) Harry is one of the best small defenders in the comp. Many teams don't have one, let alone 2 (Wicks). He and Wicks proved over the last part of the season that they could work together effectively.
3) Other than Wicks we no longer have a small defender in the pipeline having delisted Paton and Leidler. One of the draftees might become one but unlikely to go past Harry in 2026.
If we choose to play one small defender it might be Wicks but then it might be Harry.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

Let’s start with our new recruits immediately in the firsts - Rosas and Serong and keep them there for an extended period to see what they’ve got. Also, let’s give these treacle slow development projects (having a crack at our VFL not the kids) their long awaited debut - Snell Edwards Green. VFL form for us is a terrible marker of whether or not they’ll make it. Let’s get out of the cycle we throw them in for 1 week sometimes as sub and drop them straight away. If they don’t make it they don’t make it - at least let’s find out!

 

[Kiama Chris]

Let’s start with our new recruits immediately in the firsts - Rosas and Serong and keep them there for an extended period to see what they’ve got. Also, let’s give these treacle slow development projects (having a crack at our VFL not the kids) their long awaited debut - Snell Edwards Green. VFL form for us is a terrible marker of whether or not they’ll make it. Let’s get out of the cycle we throw them in for 1 week sometimes as sub and drop them straight away. If they don’t make it they don’t make it - at least let’s find out!

I get what you want to achieve but:
1) the team needs to win and 5 debutants in one go is probably counterproductive.
2) one week is rarely enough to make a proper judgement and you risk burning the player's confidence. Need at least 3 games (imo) and a program of things to work on when they go back. Coaching and development.
3) Coach(es) need to make a judgement on who is most ready. It might not relate to VFL form.
That said, injury forced a lot of that on us this year and Cox tried things so hopefully we will see more debuts.

 

[crankygeese]

So assuming Hayward is gone as well, our forward stocks look something like:
Curnow, McDonald, McLean, Amartey, Ladhams
Bowman, Papley, Hanily, Campbell, Dattooli, Cleary, Rosas

That's before draftees like King join

Could be worse. If Papley, Amartey, and McDonald are fully fit for the season, that's dangerous. Need a bit more from the young smalls though to take the next step.

 

[JackHiscoxWasFast]

So assuming Hayward is gone as well, our forward stocks look something like:
Curnow, McDonald, McLean, Amartey, Ladhams
Bowman, Papley, Hanily, Campbell, Dattooli, Cleary, Rosas

That's before draftees like King join

Could be worse. If Papley, Amartey, and McDonald are fully fit for the season, that's dangerous. Need a bit more from the young smalls though to take the next step.

When you put all those names down on paper - assuming guys come back from injury 100% and that Jesse has a great pre season and all, we could have one of the best forward lines in the comp !

 

[Kiama Chris]

So assuming Hayward is gone as well, our forward stocks look something like:
Curnow, McDonald, McLean, Amartey, Ladhams
Bowman, Papley, Hanily, Campbell, Dattooli, Cleary, Rosas

That's before draftees like King join

Could be worse. If Papley, Amartey, and McDonald are fully fit for the season, that's dangerous. Need a bit more from the young smalls though to take the next step.

IMO there's no direct replacement for Hayward so I think we'd have to approach things a little differently. None of those you mention are likely to fill his shoes. I'm not sure that that's necessarily a bad thing as Hayward was often called on to play a pretty negative role. One wonders if this change was in mind when we picked up Rosas who has the most similar traits.

 

[Bonz]

Ok thinking if we bring in Curnow (and lose both Hayward and Florent).

This is what my crack at best 23 looks like.

Cunningham - Melican - Rampe
Wicks - McCartin - Blakey
Gulden - Mills - McInerney
Campbell - McDonald - Rosas
Papley - Curnow - Amartey
Grundy - Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

- Heeney
Sheldrick - Rowbottom - Jordon - Lloyd - Serong

Depth: Bice, McLean, Corey Warner, Adams, Dattoli, Ladhams, Roberts, Hanily, Hamling, Snell, Edwards and draftees.

That's a really balanced and powerful team with decent depth.

Using Amartey as second ruck here.

 

[Punts]

Lloyd isn’t in the best imo