Rumour Bluemour Discussion XLI

[Bletch]

If we're going to lose 9 and 11, wouldn't we be better off going to Ess and saying here's 9 + 11 + 43, give us 6 + 21 + 27 + 30?

6 gets us a player before Dean, the second rounders points total will be enough for a Dean bid at pick 8+

Let's play this out.

We've then got 6, 21, 27, 30, 54.

6 becomes 9 and gets spent on A. Player. Hopefully before a bid on Dean. Cross our fingers. Or we do the deal only when pick 6 hits the board and Dean is still there.

After other picks are added and taken out for GC and Brisbane's 3 players, our remaining picks would be: 21, 25, 26, ~48. Points value 721 + 591 + 561 + 102 = 1975

Worst case, Melbourne bid on Dean at 10. Cost to match 1148. Can match with 21 and 25, get pick 45 back. So then have 24, 45, ~47 -> 621 + 150 + 118 = 889 Enough to match a bid from 15 on for Ison, and he won't go that high.

It also then offers the possibility of taking a pick at 24, as there's a good possibility Ison won't attract a bid by then. But if we do, we'd only be left with 268 points to match. That is enough to match a bid at 35+ only. But even in worst case again, a bid at 25, we'd be left with a deficit of 239. Which isn't great, but manageable. We could prob look at a future pick swap with someone to get another pick to bridge the gap. And again, that's with a worst case scenario on both Dean and Ison.

So, yes, I think this would be a good deal for us, but only if it's a live trade, and Dean is still on the table at 6 (9).

With this we could get Dean, another player in the early 20s and Dean and Ison.

Essendon get 3 picks in the top 14 or 15. But it only leaves them with 43 after that. And they've got an academy kid (Sweid) who will probably go in the 20s. So they'd want to keep at least one of those picks in the 20s, or arrange a secondary deal for pick 11 that drops it a few places and nets another pick.

 

[Moon]

Interesting first interview with Charlie at the swans - says he doesn’t expect his inclusion will change much.

He’ll just slot in & do a job.

Combine that with not watching footy ... it appears Charlie has a talent .. goes to work, gets paid heaps .. goes through the motions on game Day and doesn't care whether he kicks Goals or the team wins or not.
Job done .. go home and do other things. Life is beautiful. No surprise then it's about lifestyle.
Sydney should suit him. Go Charlie.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Interesting theme that's come up this week about the Carlton fanbase (that's us, but the way).

Charlie's manager noted it's a very tough club to play for when you're not playing well.

Hayward mentioned in his intro video the passionate fans.

Silvagni and TDK both choosing to go elsewhere (the Saints no less!).

I think reading between the lines, here, we're dead-set lunatics and maybe there's something for us to take on board.

Good post - been tossing up whether to post something similar. I have heard for while the reason Charlie wanted to move was to do with the pressure of dealing with the supporters.

I've never understood people at the football really bagging out their own players and I do think as a supporter base we can be better.

I know we'll get responses of "well they are on $880K a year and deserve it etc" but I really don't know of any environment where having continual negative feedback ever works.

We are asking the club and players to change and bring a new attitude - can we as supporters do the same ?

 

[katmanblue]

Important to keep all these for posterity

Well done folks!

Other than the the last two, it's who's who of negativity of the on this board

 

[Sucker for Trade Period]

Good post - been tossing up whether to post something similar. I have heard for while the reason Charlie wanted to move was to do with the pressure of dealing with the supporters.

I've never understood people at the football really bagging out their own players and I do think as a supporter base we can be better.

I know we'll get responses of "well they are on $880K a year and deserve it etc" but I really don't know of any environment where having continual negative feedback ever works.

We are asking the club and players to change and bring a new attitude - can we as supporters do the same ?

This is a problem I've had with our supporter base for a long time. The negativity and fickleness is crazy and makes us look like a pretty dumb group as a collective.

Passion is great and a non-negotiable as there's nothing better than our fans at full volume packing the G, but the second it steps into aggression and taking potshots at the whipping boys is the second it stops being fun

 

[AndyLucimitis]

This is a problem I've had with our supporter base for a long time. The negativity and fickleness is crazy and makes us look like a pretty dumb group as a collective.

Passion is great and a non-negotiable as there's nothing better than our fans at full volume packing the G, but the second it steps into aggression and taking potshots at the whipping boys is the second it stops being fun

Fab on the Prendercast often points out how at Collingwood games, when they get behind the crowd lift whereas with the Blues you can hear the air go out of the supporters or it gets nasty.

I know that's a reaction to 30 years of losing but is it something, as a group, we can try to work on.

 

[katmanblue]

View attachment 2457682

C4 right now...

 

[Blue1980]

I'm hoping we get Ryan Burton or Charlie Dean to help with defensive depth.

I wouldnt mind Frost either.

 

[Blue1980]

It's a trade we didn't have to make

It's clearly not an overwhelmingly great deal and a trade we didn't need to make. It has gutted the team. Cannot afford to lose TDK, Silvagni & Curnow plus EJ, Gov, etc. Drafts picks will be late teens at best in a compromised draft. And then 3-5yrs development ... at risk of another DOW, SPS.. and ACL's.

You know who could also do his ACL? Curnow. We will keep Gov, I would like us to keep Elijah but those inside of the club would know more than me on him and if he has torched the relationship beyond repair.

 

[Blue1980]

Ainsworth does frequently go missing, he has his whole career. He was a fringe player at the Suns hence them allowing him to go despite signing a 4 yr deal. He does have potential for better, and I'd like to see him player inside 50 more than HFF, but he's not a big move as it is now.

Hayward can similarly go in and out of games. He actually reminds me of Charlie in that he cam have a dominant 15 minutes kicking 3 goals but be barely sighted outside of that. I think he's better than fringe tbf, hes a decent inclusion.

Pretty hard to name guys who play in those positions (half forwards/high half forward/forward pocket) who don't drift in and out of games as its so reliant on what is going on upfield and you can be stuck doing a lot of unrewarded running.

 

[agro]

Good question!

It needs a period considered thought & introspection.

It's not really fair - some people have a really huge head start.

 

[NavySteel]

Interesting first interview with Charlie at the swans - says he doesn’t expect his inclusion will change much.

He’ll just slot in & do a job.

They’ll be expecting a bit more than that ol’ sport!

Love the name!

 

[Blue1980]

Interesting theme that's come up this week about the Carlton fanbase (that's us, but the way).

Charlie's manager noted it's a very tough club to play for when you're not playing well.

Hayward mentioned in his intro video the passionate fans.

Silvagni and TDK both choosing to go elsewhere (the Saints no less!).

I think reading between the lines, here, we're dead-set lunatics and maybe there's something for us to take on board.

I think it was cumulative with Charlie, JSOS and to a lesser extent TDK (I think that was mainly money). But with Charlie and TDK, they have been through all the hard yard of the rebuild on the promise it would eventually turn. So for us to go backwards this year, I think the whole culmination of endless green shoots years and false dawns had worn them down, and on top of that a big fan base starved of success.

Not saying I'd have bailed out if I was them too, but I think that the above was a large factor, and part of the perils of doing a full scale rebuild, you basically need to become a consistently top 4/6 side if you have had guys spending 7-8 years in sides hardly winning any games by the end of it. North Melbourne may experience this issue soon enough, where guys like Shiezel, Wardlaw etc eventually lose hope and want out.

 

[SirSanchez]

Hi all. I will apologise in advance if this question has been asked and or answered in the last 17,000 pages. But what is happening with the assistant coaches? We had an impressive list of candidates we were/are chasing but never really heard how it all played out.
Who did we and didn’t we get?

 

[ctwenty1]

I’d like to hear your thoughts on how this was a, Brisbane first mentality?

I dont understand the idea that getting zero in return for a player, is better than getting a 2nd and 3rd rounder.

This trade is isolation is a loss for Brisbane

But, other outcomes are

a) doesnt get the player to the club they want
b) doesnt allow the other club to get the player they want
c) makes it really tricky now for the player to get to their preferred club
d) enables another club to come in and convince Ah Chee to go to them in the PSD

So if I'm another club wanting a Brisbane player I know:
a) its going to be hard to get the player
b) I might need to over pay
c) I may not even get the player I want even if I've spent all this time convincing them to come

So what does that mean for Brisbane - they get to decide who and at what value they will release a player. Also provides greater stability in playing group because they know other clubs at trying to pinch players because they are hard to extract. Agree this also makes it potentially less desreable to be there as a player as leaving is harder, but while Bribsane are supper successful that is probabaly less of an issue.

So in my view, thats Brisbane first

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Let's play this out.

We've then got 6, 21, 27, 30, 54.

6 becomes 9 and gets spent on A. Player. Hopefully before a bid on Dean. Cross our fingers. Or we do the deal only when pick 6 hits the board and Dean is still there.

After other picks are added and taken out for GC and Brisbane's 3 players, our remaining picks would be: 21, 25, 26, ~48. Points value 721 + 591 + 561 + 102 = 1975

Worst case, Melbourne bid on Dean at 10. Cost to match 1148. Can match with 21 and 25, get pick 45 back. So then have 24, 45, ~47 -> 621 + 150 + 118 = 889 Enough to match a bid from 15 on for Ison, and he won't go that high.

It also then offers the possibility of taking a pick at 24, as there's a good possibility Ison won't attract a bid by then. But if we do, we'd only be left with 268 points to match. That is enough to match a bid at 35+ only. But even in worst case again, a bid at 25, we'd be left with a deficit of 239. Which isn't great, but manageable. We could prob look at a future pick swap with someone to get another pick to bridge the gap. And again, that's with a worst case scenario on both Dean and Ison.

So, yes, I think this would be a good deal for us, but only if it's a live trade, and Dean is still on the table at 6 (9).

With this we could get Dean, another player in the early 20s and Dean and Ison.

Essendon get 3 picks in the top 14 or 15. But it only leaves them with 43 after that. And they've got an academy kid (Sweid) who will probably go in the 20s. So they'd want to keep at least one of those picks in the 20s, or arrange a secondary deal for pick 11 that drops it a few places and nets another pick.

Correct, we hold until we know it is the optimal time to pull the trigger on such a trade.

We probably don't want or need the extra pick at 24 anyway, so let Ess keep one of the seconds, we keep 43.

That would leave us with 6 + 21 + 27, Ess get 9 +11 + 43

so, going by your estimation, 21 + 25 + ~48 after picks are taken and added leaves us with 721 + 590 + 102 = 1413. The bid at 10 leaves us with 265 points, you've pretty much outlined this anyway. But tbh, can't see someone bidding on him before 30 and most likely will come after 35 imo.

Ess will have ~26 + ~38 after picks +/- so 838 points to play with, plus a bid in the 20's will warrant the the 84 point discount... more than enough for a pick in the 20's to match the bid for Sweid.

 

[El Topo]

I think it was cumulative with Charlie, JSOS and to a lesser extent TDK (I think that was mainly money). But with Charlie and TDK, they have been through all the hard yard of the rebuild on the promise it would eventually turn. So for us to go backwards this year, I think the whole culmination of endless green shoots years and false dawns had worn them down, and on top of that a big fan base starved of success.

Not saying I'd have bailed out if I was them too, but I think that the above was a large factor, and part of the perils of doing a full scale rebuild, you basically need to become a consistently top 4/6 side if you have had guys spending 7-8 years in sides hardly winning any games by the end of it. North Melbourne may experience this issue soon enough, where guys like Shiezel, Wardlaw etc eventually lose hope and want out.

Even more so with JSOS - correctly saw the writing on the wall with 2-3 lean years ahead and HOF/Dean coming through to replace him. He would have been mad not to take the $$ and extra years elsewhere.

 

[Blue1980]

I wouldn't pin my hopes on having a great year. We have made a very significant change to our list.

We had a system which relied heavily on TDK and Charlie... now we will be working on a whole new system.

It will take time to integrate all these player changes into said new system.

I think realistically, we will finish above:

Ess, WCE, Melb, Rich, North... probably throw Port in there too.

We will then be occupying one of the next 4 spots, battling that out with these three:

Stains, Syd, Pies

I think best case 10th, worst case 13th.

I think best case we could finish 6th/7th, when you consider how many guys had down years who could definitely play much better footy than 2025 in 2026.

Worst case is 13th/14th, we could gel quickly as we still have the majority of the playing group, same coach etc so there is that continuity. We need to start off well, losing to Richmond R1 pretty much killed our season then and there.

 

[Blue since 72]

S@kc them all.

Well I'm happy to see we've brought in players with what look like both better skills and decision making and we'll see some of the recent "regulars" (ie guys like Fog) playing a lot less senior footy.

While I appreciate Fog's endeavour the new ins will make us better and that's all I'm concerned about. Acres would be another I would expect to be playing less ones.

 

[Blue1980]

Towards the end of the season, there was a very real and obvious shift that the club starting mentioning the fans more in communications and interviews. You started to hear from the players as well in all their club media interviews and segments answer a specific question on the fans, and the pres, CEO, GMoF, Voss, all start to reference us in a positive light.

It's their way of recognising that they have done a piss weak job of fan engagement all these years and taking us for granted.

If those players or any players cant handle us, then bad luck, they know where the door is.

We don't need to lift our game on take anything on board, we have been going above and beyond for this club throughout our entire history, and considering what we have been through for the last 25 years, I hold it as a badge of honor that we are so loyal and passionate. There are only a couple of other fan bases like ours in the country (not just AFL) that are as diehard, loyal, and unique.

A small percentage of supporters are d***kheads no doubt, but its certainly not the fan base in as a whole or even in general.

I think basically after the salary cap distaste post Elliott, the club spent so long trying to sure us up off field and make us a powerhouse there, and we only really got on solid footing in that regard in the last few years really. So now the focus is shifting to footy in the footy dept as the one priority, not spin, not trying every trick in the book to increase membership.

That side of things we are strong, but can only get stronger from here if we are better on-field.

 

[Blue1980]

Even more so with JSOS - correctly saw the writing on the wall with 2-3 lean years ahead and HOF/Dean coming through to replace him. He would have been mad not to take the $$ and extra years elsewhere.

I'm not so sure we are in as bad a spot as JSOS may or may not of thought, and many others have us in.

If we didn't go down the track of replenishing now, we could of ended up there, but there is still a lot of a grade talent and a more even talent spread now.

I am sure his Dad was telling him how ****ed we were and our list was and St Kilda was the promised land, but hardly convinced thats the case.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Well I'm happy to see we've brought in players with what look like both better skills and decision making and we'll see some of the recent "regulars" (ie guys like Fog) playing a lot less senior footy.

While I appreciate Fog's endeavour the new ins will make us better and that's all I'm concerned about. Acres would be another I would expect to be playing less ones.

Agree - these 2 are obvious replacements for the players we have traded in.

 

[16bit]

Look, change is as good as a holiday. I have no doubt Charlie will slot into Sydney and kick a bag of goals next year. Whether he drops off immediately like Waite to Norf, or they get a few good years out of him is up for debate.

We have completely rejigged our forward line, Newman back in and Florent down back, and who knows how Dean and Jagga will contribute, I would put a lock on us making finals next year. A lot of passengers have departed the Blues station.

 

[Blue1980]

Sam Frost is like a drunken, blindfolded, machine gun with ball in hand...

But he could be our drunken, blindfolded guy with a machine gun with ball in hand. think of the adrenaline rush? Or is that a kink?

 

[T2B_]

But he could be our drunken, blindfolded guy with a machine gun with ball in hand

True, we haven't had one of those since... Paul Bower?