Rumour Bluemour Discussion XLI

[Blue since 72]

But he could be our drunken, blindfolded guy with a machine gun with ball in hand. think of the adrenaline rush? Or is that a kink?

Unpredictable and dangerous, I like it.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I think best case we could finish 6th/7th, when you consider how many guys had down years who could definitely play much better footy than 2025 in 2026.

Worst case is 13th/14th, we could gel quickly as we still have the majority of the playing group, same coach etc so there is that continuity. We need to start off well, losing to Richmond R1 pretty much killed our season then and there.

Finishing 6th/7th is too optimistic for mine.

Our key defender stocks are shot. Our backline will have Haynes(34), Newman(33), Saad(32) with no Jack Silvagni, no HOF for most of the season... so big reliance on gov(32) or Young again.

More importantly, even though we've made a lot of changes, we didn't address our midfield. Can't fix everything in one off season, but the one paced, one dimensional quartet of Cripps, Hewett, Walsh and Cerra with Pitto as main ruck is really going to struggle and I can't see Chesser and Smith making up for it yet.

An old backline and slow midfield will be too much to make up for even factoring in better seasons from the guys who had a down year. It's a very tough competition these days, the Swans will likely be back in the 8 with the addition of Charlie, Dogs will have a good chance of making the 8 as well... Pies and maybe Giants? miss out?

 

[katmanblue]

Towards the end of the season, there was a very real and obvious shift that the club starting mentioning the fans more in communications and interviews. You started to hear from the players as well in all their club media interviews and segments answer a specific question on the fans, and the pres, CEO, GMoF, Voss, all start to reference us in a positive light.

It's their way of recognising that they have done a piss weak job of fan engagement all these years and taking us for granted.

If those players or any players cant handle us, then bad luck, they know where the door is.

We don't need to lift our game on take anything on board, we have been going above and beyond for this club throughout our entire history, and considering what we have been through for the last 25 years, I hold it as a badge of honor that we are so loyal and passionate. There are only a couple of other fan bases like ours in the country (not just AFL) that are as diehard, loyal, and unique.

A small percentage of supporters are d***kheads no doubt, but its certainly not the fan base in as a whole or even in general.

I think the difference is between demanding better performance and being abusive.

 

[Bluebag13]

I think basically after the salary cap distaste post Elliott, the club spent so long trying to sure us up off field and make us a powerhouse there, and we only really got on solid footing in that regard in the last few years really. So now the focus is shifting to footy in the footy dept as the one priority, not spin, not trying every trick in the book to increase membership.

That side of things we are strong, but can only get stronger from here if we are better on-field.

yep agree with this also

 

[kingkingston]

no, you have to defend as well...

and the method to generate those shots is more important then just spraying shots at the goals...

24 shots to 17 v Tigers
20 shots each v Hawks
20 shots to 23 v Dogs
16 shots to 23 v Pies
38 shots to 20 v Eagles
33 shots to 16 v North
24 shots to 16 v Cats
15 shots to 30 v Crows
22 shots to 17 v Saints
17 shots to 23 v Swans
22 shots to 25 v Giants
23 shots to 15 v Ess
23 shots to 17 v Eagles
23 shots to 19 v North
20 shots to 30 v Port
19 shots to 30 v Pies
21 shots to 28 v Lions
18 shots to 20 v Melb
16 shots to 20 v Hawks
17 shots to 19 v Freo
19 shots to 28 v Suns
28 shots to 19 v Port
25 shots to 16 v Ess

So we setup more shots than the opposition in 10/23 games and most of them were against the worst teams in the comp.

How many shots did the other team get after we first scored a point or kicked it out of bounds? We were 5th for inside 50s. We were second to last for afl shot efficiency.

 

[Blue__Balls]

I think best case we could finish 6th/7th, when you consider how many guys had down years who could definitely play much better footy than 2025 in 2026.

Worst case is 13th/14th, we could gel quickly as we still have the majority of the playing group, same coach etc so there is that continuity. We need to start off well, losing to Richmond R1 pretty much killed our season then and there.

Agreed.

I think we'll be more consistently solid, but probably still a year or two away from being able to reliably mix it with the top 4 sides. Benchmark should be mid-table, still fighting for finals in the last round (and hopefully sneaking in), but additionally, I'd like to see us with an 80-90% win rate against sides below us on the ladder.

Being able to reliably account for weaker sides provides a good platform from which to start pushing past the better teams. No more Jekyll and Hyde crap where we beat the top side and then lose to or narrowly survive against a bottom 4 side.

 

[Moon]

If Jimmy Bartell and James Hird on the Agender Setters award Carlton (& Sydney) a B+ for the Trade period ... if these Guys think that Carlton did well .. then GW, Davies and Austin get the thumbs up.

 

[Aphrodite]

Interesting theme that's come up this week about the Carlton fanbase (that's us, but the way).

Charlie's manager noted it's a very tough club to play for when you're not playing well.

Hayward mentioned in his intro video the passionate fans.

Silvagni and TDK both choosing to go elsewhere (the Saints no less!).

I think reading between the lines, here, we're dead-set lunatics and maybe there's something for us to take on board.

D'Orazio

 

[The Bighouse]

He will be nowhere near the forward line i reckon

Down back for him but yes he is the swingman so could end up forward

Hoping much like Kemp, we don’t see Mitch the defender in our line-up.

Have more hope for MM as a forward backup.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Interesting theme that's come up this week about the Carlton fanbase (that's us, but the way).

Charlie's manager noted it's a very tough club to play for when you're not playing well.

Hayward mentioned in his intro video the passionate fans.

Silvagni and TDK both choosing to go elsewhere (the Saints no less!).

I think reading between the lines, here, we're dead-set lunatics and maybe there's something for us to take on board.

More supporters less fanatics

 

[The Bighouse]

Biggest challenge is to rework the whole forward line structure and method and Harry is the pivot point that needs to be worked out.

If he plays as a FF tis negates his boundary running for relief marks but brings crumbing into play if he plays at CHF we get relief marking but no tall target leading from goal square. Big opportunity for HOK to step up. What happens when Harry is taking a breather adds to the question marks - working the mid and smaller forwards into a potent combo sans tall is the real challenge. Effective forward half pressure capability should be vastly improved with Hayward Frank Williams all capable defensive forwards who can kick goals. Sharing the load will #1 priority.

Between the arc run and carry should go up massively with Chesser/Smith/Walsh now all whole of field runners - not to mention Olli Hollands and Cottrell.

We've never seen midfield goal kicking capability as a thing - that will have to be developed given the running power Voss can draw on now - Chesser bte is capable of slotting them on the run form 40 meters out - evident in some of his highlights - Carlton has had to draw on curnow for that previously.

Interestingly for a ruckman- Reid is a very reliable set shot from distance so there is that - and HOK is a decent set shot kick as well.

Meanwhile Moir/Kemp have their own capabilities we need Moir to step up as Kempy will be a slow burn on 2026.

What a pity Lemmey never developed as hoped.

For me the positives with new additions is that Carlton won't be beaten just for lack of leg speed going forward.

I'm optimistic but now there is no doubt that the pressure will be on how well teh coaches can bring out the best form this improved and more versatile list. If between the arcs contested play is now enhanced by improved running power on the outside- the pressure on Weitering and co is significantly diminished.

We should have at least had a look at Lemmey in ‘24, def in ‘25 to see what he could do at AFL level.

The opportunity in the MSD was also passed over with Archer May or Trembath types.

 

[The Bighouse]

I'm hoping we get Ryan Burton or Charlie Dean to help with defensive depth.

Both tweeners - prefer a bigger body or person to help out down back.

 

[Guus_Hiddink]

Interesting theme that's come up this week about the Carlton fanbase (that's us, but the way).

Charlie's manager noted it's a very tough club to play for when you're not playing well.

Hayward mentioned in his intro video the passionate fans.

Silvagni and TDK both choosing to go elsewhere (the Saints no less!).

I think reading between the lines, here, we're dead-set lunatics and maybe there's something for us to take on board.

Yeah, nah.

Richmond fans had a massive reputation of eating their own before turning things around.

Such a cop out to blame the fans.

 

[Bluebag13]

I think the difference is between demanding better performance and being abusive.

Agree, There is a very clear difference.

It just gets me:

• Only focus on negatives
• When people refer to the fan base as a whole not a smaller subset
• Don't recognise or understand the multitude of variables and history, that explain how supporters react in difference ways, positively or negatively
• That yes there are some negatives to us but there are so many more positives

Yes im in work mode that explains the dot points

 

[Blue__Balls]

We should have at least had a look at Lemmey in ‘24, def in ‘25 to see what he could do at AFL level.

The opportunity in the MSD was also passed over with Archer May or Trembath types.

As fans, sure. But maybe there was enough evidence with Lemmey for the club to make the call that they've made without him featuring at senior level. Training, coachability, professionalism, application, physicality, response to feedback etc. On output, he seemed to be progressing, but there's a lot more that would go into the decision to delist than just "is he kicking more goals now than he was 12 months ago".

 

[Dramoth]

Didn’t we have Grainger-Barras down there as well?

We do, they were trying him as a tall forward towards the end of the year to mixed success.

 

[Dramoth]

Sam Frost as a DFA would be perfect for 2 years.

Could be another Haynes success story.

 

[Dramoth]

Not sure Sydney would want Bailey sniffing around there...

They did take Buddy remember.

 

[Coops93]

What’s your definition of fringe? I see a fringe player as someone who is in the 20+ range of a clubs list, where their selection is dependant on form and injuries.

Ainsworth and Hayward are a long way ahead of this, whilst i agree with your assessment of them, both are picked every week, whilst not being top players, they can both aim for and be close to top 10 players.

I'm not sure Ainsworth is higher than that in any side that's in top 4 considerations. He was that at the Suns this season, that bottom 20% of the 23.

Like I said in my first post I do think Hayward is better than that, though.

 

[Dramoth]

Sam Frost is like a drunken, blindfolded, machine gun with ball in hand...

So, the perfect Carlton player?

 

[Coops93]

Pretty hard to name guys who play in those positions (half forwards/high half forward/forward pocket) who don't drift in and out of games as its so reliant on what is going on upfield and you can be stuck doing a lot of unrewarded running.

True, and thats not Ainsworths best position imo. Like I said I would like to see him play small fwd and not HFF. He doesn't have the defensive running in him naturally anyway so Cottrell would be miles ahead in that role, for comparison.

 

[The Bighouse]

I'm not so sure we are in as bad a spot as JSOS may or may not of thought, and many others have us in.

If we didn't go down the track of replenishing now, we could of ended up there, but there is still a lot of a grade talent and a more even talent spread now.

I am sure his Dad was telling him how ****ed we were and our list was and St Kilda was the promised land, but hardly convinced thats the case.

With his dad’s track record, I wouldn’t be listening to too much out of his gob re: list builds. Good dinner conversation though.

Last contract and JSOS took the cash, as orchestrated by SOS and his mates.

 

[woof39]

With his dad’s track record, I wouldn’t be listening to too much out of his gob re: list builds. Good dinner conversation though.

Last contract and JSOS took the cash, as orchestrated by SOS and his mates.

I wonder if the decision to backtrack the Allir contract had to do with Jack. They certainly pretended to shop themselves around as to show their 'due diligence', which makes me wonder if luring Allir was part of that. Surely not considering they were into him for so long but it very distasteful regardless.

 

[The Bighouse]

As fans, sure. But maybe there was enough evidence with Lemmey for the club to make the call that they've made without him featuring at senior level. Training, coachability, professionalism, application, physicality, response to feedback etc. On output, he seemed to be progressing, but there's a lot more that would go into the decision to delist than just "is he kicking more goals now than he was 12 months ago".

More for list management - KPF (limited in supply on our list) and there were opportunities to chance him for a game.

Some perform better the next level up. You don’t know if you don’t get an opportunity - see Liam McMahon.

Has been linked to PTA but imagine that will be either a train-on / SSP or watchful eye in the SANFL.

 

[The Bighouse]

I wonder if the decision to backtrack the Allir contract had to do with Jack. They certainly pretended to shop themselves around as to show their 'due diligence', which makes me wonder if luring Allir was part of that. Surely not considering they were into him for so long but it very distasteful regardless.

Reckon Jack was done a fair while out. JSOS & TDK in the STK box….

They should have let Aleer know earlier. Think that was about Marshall & Steele (late trade) still on the books and then Flanders coming on board.

They sprouted they had cash to splash so it was more a case of buyers remorse and pulling their offer from overpaying for a L/T contract.