Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[GremioPower]

Let me add that clubs from the EF hadn’t made into the GF before the bye was introduced in 2016.

Since then, however, in 9 seasons, 4 EF teams have done it:

• 2016 Dogs (7th, Premiers);
• 2019 GWS (6th);
• 2021 Dogs (5th);
• 2024 Lions (5th, Premiers).

 

[GremioPower]

GF without the Minor Premiers [since 2000]

8 Grand Finals
2002 (1st, Port)
2003 (1st, Port)
2005 (1st, West Lakes)
2015 (1st, Fremantle)
2018 (1st, Richmond)
2019 (1st, Geelong)
2020 (1st, Port)
2025 (1st, West Lakes)

-> Freo, Richmond, and 2020 Port won their QF.
-> 2025 W. Lakes lost in the SF.

—

Clubs:
Port, 3 times
WLK, 2
FRE, 1
RIC, 1
GEE, 1

States:
SA, 5 times
Vic, 2
WA, 1

 

[FishingRick04]

GF without the Minor Premiers [since 2000]

8 Grand Finals
2002 (1st, Port)
2003 (1st, Port)
2005 (1st, West Lakes)
2015 (1st, Fremantle)
2018 (1st, Richmond)
2019 (1st, Geelong)
2020 (1st, Port)
2025 (1st, West Lakes)

-> Freo, Richmond, and 2020 Port won their QF.
-> 2025 W. Lakes lost in the SF.

—

Clubs:
Port, 3 times
WLK, 2
FRE, 1
RIC, 1
GEE, 1

States:
SA, 5 times
Vic, 2
WA, 1

So proud we top a list, does the SA fans and media put too much pressure on the players or not enough?

 

[GremioPower]

So proud we top a list, does the SA fans and media put too much pressure on the players or not enough?

It’s a really weird piece of data, right? I’m clueless.

 

[GremioPower]

Since 2000, #4 has played in only 3 GF [and lost all of them]. Combined, the #4 record in Home PF is 3-5.

#4 @GF since 2000:

• 2002 GF, Collingwood (4) wdb. (2) Brisbane
• 2006 GF, Sydney (4) wdb. (1) W. Coast
• 2020 GF, Geelong (4) wdb. (3) Richmond

Once again, Collingwood couldn’t repeat what they did in 2002. They are now 1-2 as #4 in a Home PF.

#4 Home PF since 2000:

• 2002 PF, Collingwood (4) def. (3) W. Lakes
• 2003 PF, Sydney (4) wdb. (3) Brisbane
• 2005 PF, St. Kilda (4) wdb. (3) Sydney
• 2006 PF, Sydney (4) def. (3) Fremantle
• 2016 PF, G.W.S. (4) wdb. (7) Footscray
• 2019 PF, Collingwood (4) wdb. (6) G.W.S.
• 2020 PF, Geelong (4) def. (2) Brisbane
• 2025 PF, Collingwood (4) wdb. (3) Brisbane

 

[GremioPower]

It's the 5th GF between #2 and #3 since 2000. The #3 have won 3 of the previous 4 GF.

In all 5 seasons, #2 has won the PF. So far, only the 2018 Eagles were able to win again in the rematch.

2v3 GF:

• 2003 GF, Collingwood (2) wdb. (3) Brisbane
• 2005 GF, West Coast (2) wdb. (3) Sydney
• 2015 GF, West Coast (2) wdb. (3) Hawthorn
• 2018 GF, West Coast (2) def. (3) Collingwood
• 2025 GF, Geelong (2) v. (3) Brisbane

Club Record:
West Coast, 3 (1-2)
Brisbane, 2 (1-0)
Collingwood, 2 (0-2)
Sydney, 1 (1-0)
Hawthorn, 1 (1-0)
Geelong, 1 (0-0)

 

[GremioPower]

The 2025 Brisbane Lions is the 13th club since 2000 to reach the GF after having played in a SF. It's the 9th after the institution of the pre-Finals bye in 2016.

In 2016 and 2020, the GF was played between 2 teams coming out the SF. Thus, the 2025 GF is the 9th since 2000 between a QF winner and a SF winner:

• 2003 GF, Collingwood (2) wdb. (3) Brisbane
• 2005 GF, West Coast (2) wdb. (3) Sydney
• 2006 GF, Sydney (4) wdb. (1) W. Coast
• 2015 GF, West Coast (2) wdb. (3) Hawthorn
• 2018 GF, West Coast (2) def. (3) Collingwood
• 2019 GF, Richmond (3) def. (6) G.W.S.
• 2021 GF, Melbourne (1) def. (5) Footscray
• 2024 GF, Sydney (1) wdb. (5) Brisbane

It's also the 4th of those GF to be between a Vic and an "interstater". The Victorian side won once (2019) and lost twice (2003/2018).

---

P.S.: The 2006 is just the other QF/GF rematch besides those listed in the previous post. The QF loser also won the flag, keeping the 2018 Eagles as the sole exception.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

2 v 3 QF teams playing off in the GF since 2000.

Losing a QF then win a flag since 2000.

2003 Bris (3) lost to Coll (2) at MCG 15pts, won SF v Adel (6) by 42pts at Gabba, won PF v Syd (4) at Stadium Oz by 44 pts, won GF v Coll by 60 pts. 3rd flag of triple heavyweight champion era.

2005 and 2006 amazing battles by Sydney and WCE during 6 games stretch where results were all less than 6 pts. They had mirror image results between for QF and GF in both 2005 and 2006.

2005 Syd (3) lost to WCE (2) at Subi by 4pts, won SF v Gee (6) by 3 pts at SCG, won PF v StK (4) at MCG by 31 pts, won GF v WCE by 4pts.

2015 Haw (3) lost to WCE (2) at Subi by 32pts, won SF v Adel (7) by 74pts at MCG, won PF v Freo (1) at Subi by 27pts, won GF v Syd by 46pts. 3rd flag of triple heavyweight champion era.

Lose a QF, then win a PF but lose a GF

2018 Coll (3) lost to WCE (2) at PS by 16pts, won SF v GWS (7) by 10pts at MCG, won PF v Rich (1) at MCG by 39pts, lost GF v WCE by 5pts.


3rd losing the QF and winning the flag only happens in special circumstances. Is 3 GFs in a row special enough circumstances for Brisbane to win and win back to back flags?? Maybe is my position at the moment.

4th ended up being irrelevant again, when it comes to winning a flag.

 

[GremioPower]

4th ended up being irrelevant again, when it comes to winning a flag.

Even if it wins one eventually, it will remain as relevant as an EF team.

 

[MrChow]

If Chris Davies job was to protect Hinkley at all costs, he did it well.

If Chris Davies job was to make the football club successful, he was an absolutely horrendous GM who oversaw the dismantling of our culture. His record is indefensible.

He started when we had an insane amount of momentum, and then we didn't win a final for 6 years. We then extended the head coach twice more without a GF appearance. He was an arrogant **** every time he was interviewed, completely dismissing criticism and showing contempt for the supporter base.

Just adding fuel to the fire here for fun.

But if you add up all the bullshite AFL/VFL bias, that no side wins flags without AFL assistance (father son/academy, COLA, priority picks, ballooning of initial lists), then home ground MCG, no AFL reserves for development, extra travel loads and a longer season, rule changes that benefit clubs with the big Vic connection to AFL house, the Vic media, extra sponsorship money in Vic, and so on.

I actually think it’s impossible to win a flag, let alone make a GF as an interstate club in the current environment. All you have to do is come up against one of those sides at the wrong time (and for us prelims).

You give us Rance for free (priority pick) and take from Richmond and do we make a GF and win?

I’m not sure how much you can hang this on Hinkley/Davies. As much as we needed a clean out. I think the bullshite AFL/VFL bias has more of an impact.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I actually think it’s impossible to win a flag, let alone make a GF as an interstate club in the current environment.

Bullshit excuse. We had a home prelim against the 5th placed injury riddled COVID inconvenienced Bulldogs and we lost it by 70+ points. That's not 'Vic bias'. That's our own doing.

 

[Long live PAFC]

Bullshit excuse. We had a home prelim against the 5th placed injury riddled COVID inconvenienced Bulldogs and we lost it by 70+ points. That's not 'Vic bias'. That's our own doing.

Yea I think both elements are true here.

• it’s much much harder to achieve anything with the inherent biases in the system. Interstate sides, without the juice, bob up for one shot every now and then. Port, Crows, West Coast, Freo - 7 GFs between us since 2000 for 3 wins, 2 of which came against non Victorian sides. So it’s bloody hard for us to get there and harder to win it.
• However, you also have to be ready to perform. Something that Hinkley was never really able to get us to do. Crows and Freo both shat the bed, port did against the bulldogs in the prelim. Port faced some vic bias against the tigers and hawks but both games were there for the taking.

So, whilst it’s inherently harder to get there and harder to win it, you also have to be ready to perform. West coast show its possible.

 

[Macca_1870]

Just adding fuel to the fire here for fun.

But if you add up all the bullshite AFL/VFL bias, that no side wins flags without AFL assistance (father son/academy, COLA, priority picks, ballooning of initial lists), then home ground MCG, no AFL reserves for development, extra travel loads and a longer season, rule changes that benefit clubs with the big Vic connection to AFL house, the Vic media, extra sponsorship money in Vic, and so on.

I actually think it’s impossible to win a flag, let alone make a GF as an interstate club in the current environment. All you have to do is come up against one of those sides at the wrong time (and for us prelims).

You give us Rance for free (priority pick) and take from Richmond and do we make a GF and win?

I’m not sure how much you can hang this on Hinkley/Davies. As much as we needed a clean out. I think the bullshite AFL/VFL bias has more of an impact.

How does one arrive at this? During Hinkley's tenure - only us and the Suns failed to make a GF.

Brisbane - 3 x GF's for 2 flags.
West Coast - 2 x GF's for a flag
Sydney - 4 x GF's
Freo - 1 x GF
GWS - 1 x GF
Adelaide - 1 x GF.

Impossible - far from it. Hopefully this new regime cuts through all the excuses and accept that making a GF and winning a flag is more than possible, with the right attitude and decision making.

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

I actually think it’s impossible to win a flag, let alone make a GF as an interstate club in the current environment. All you have to do is come up against one of those sides at the wrong time (and for us prelims).

You mean west of Victoria. Northern states are all sorted.

 

[crafty_bernardo]

Impossible to win a GF as an interstate club? Have I just not had my morning coffee or. The recent premiers from Brisbane just went back to back.

 

[Visenfest]

Impossible to win a GF as an interstate club? Have I just not had my morning coffee or. The recent premiers from Brisbane just went back to back.

Nah that was Fitzroy.

 

[malcheski]

Impossible to win a GF as an interstate club? Have I just not had my morning coffee or. The recent premiers from Brisbane just went back to back.

Brisbane aren't really at a disadvantage though are they?

Northern Academies, additional AFL disbursements, Fitzroy 'heartland' heritage.

 

[crafty_bernardo]

Brisbane aren't really at a disadvantage though are they?

Northern Academies, additional AFL disbursements, Fitzroy 'heartland' heritage.

Neither are we in my opinion. Except for the coach we were hamstrung with.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I actually think it’s impossible to win a flag, let alone make a GF as an interstate club in the current environment. All you have to do is come up against one of those sides at the wrong time (and for us prelims).

It's not impossible if you consider that we lost 2 prelims by a kick or less to the eventual premier during this era, and in both games we massively hamstrung ourselves with bad goalkicking and bad stoppage work respectively.

We can win a flag.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

Yep the bulldogs who then went on to get pumped in the GF by 74 points by Melbourne in Perth

We 100% incomprehensibly ****ed up in the 2021 PF

WOULDNT CHANGE A THING

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Yep the bulldogs who then went on to get pumped in the GF by 74 points by Melbourne in Perth

We 100% incomprehensibly ****ed up in the 2021 PF

Arguably our worst loss in history ever.

Hinkley's full on denial that he did nothing wrong in his preparation and Koch/Davies calling it a fluke or anomaly further added insult to injury.

 

[PortAdelFC1997]

Arguably our worst loss in history ever.

Hinkley's full on denial that he did nothing wrong in his preparation and Koch/Davies calling it a fluke or anomaly further added insult to injury.

Still baffles me why Drew started on the bench. That allowed Libba to have a fair amount of clearances and game was over at quarter time.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Still baffles me why Drew started on the bench. That allowed Libba to have a fair amount of clearances and game was over at quarter time.

The rumour is that it was the reason why Ken and Schofield had to be separated. Schofield wanted Drew tagging from the start, Ken wanted all out attack and they got heated over it.

 

[RangaInTeal]

Still baffles me why Drew started on the bench. That allowed Libba to have a fair amount of clearances and game was over at quarter time.

Has Drew ever recovered?

 

[PowerLil]

The rumour is that it was the reason why Ken and Schofield had to be separated. Schofield wanted Drew tagging from the start, Ken wanted all out attack and they got heated over it.

And yet, Hinkley stayed and Schoey departed on the Monday. Yep. Makes sense.