List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

[Keys]

Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Spoiler

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

2025 AFL Draft Guide

online.fliphtml5.com

Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11

Spoiler

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

Spoiler

 

[squashface]

Really want NHH now, is there much chance of it happening for those more in the know? He’s better than our NGAs imo and his best is unbelievable.

Amazing skills and smarts, high ceiling but not as consistent or as much of a sure thing as the body of work behind most top picks will show outside of bolter Robey.

I reckon he's locked to the Dogs two picks before ours

 

[Farmer Lister]

Then neither he nor you understand. My entire argument is that the experts can be wrong, you can say they are wrong, you can argue they are wrong, but at the end of the day, they are just less likely to be wrong than you are.

This is not arguing to authority. This is arguing to expertise, which is a valid form of argument.

For future reference, the distinction is, in an argument to expertise, you can have countering expert viewpoints, this expert says this, but that expert disagrees. Their opinions can be and are, challenged.

An argument to authority is uchallangable. God told me.
The Orange one, the best and greatest paedo ever, thinks this, so no other opinion counts.

Most times the phrase, Argument to authority is used, it's by some nuffy trying to argue the earth is flat. Vaccines are a hoax etc, and they are trying to diminish expertise.

Expert does not mean Authority.

Sorry, but this is one of my pet hates. Don't do it.

You're splitting hairs. Regardless whether it's an appeal to authority fallacy or an appeal to expertise, they both fall under "expert opinion" which sits firmly on the bottom rung of reliable evidence based science under mechanistic studies, case reports, mandelian randomisation, observational studies, non-randomised control trials, randomised control trials and the gold standard: systematic reviews of randomised control trials.

Expert opinion, while not completely worthless, is very weak evidence. Your ranting about Trump and vaccines and flat earth shows that you rely heavily on said opinion to shape your world view, which is as I said, is very weak in terms of evidence.

 

[Underdog]

You're splitting hairs. Regardless whether it's an appeal to authority fallacy or an appeal to expertise, they both fall under "expert opinion" which sits firmly on the bottom rung of reliable evidence based science under mechanistic studies, case reports, mandelian randomisation, observational studies, non-randomised control trials, randomised control trials and the gold standard: systematic reviews of randomised control trials.

Expert opinion, while not completely worthless, is very weak evidence. Your ranting about Trump and vaccines and flat earth shows that you rely heavily on said opinion to shape your world view, which is as I said, is very weak in terms of evidence.

You're implying that the more reliable evidence gathering methods are applicable to AFL drafting? And that level presents a higher reliability than SME that is informed by metrics? I'm not convinced TBH, and I don't think clubs would have access to all of the necessary resources or datasets to build alternate models that deliver a significantly higher standard.

 

[Farang83150]

Draft thread skewing off again

 

[Farmer Lister]

You're implying that the more reliable evidence gathering methods are applicable to AFL drafting? And that level presents a higher reliability than SME that is informed by metrics? I'm not convinced TBH, and I don't think clubs would have access to all of the necessary resources or datasets to build alternate models that deliver a significantly higher standard.

I'm not suggesting that meta analysis or systematic reviews of randomised control trials are applicable to AFL but rather to highlight just how fallible and unreliable expert opinion is, which is pretty self evident

 

[bzparkes]

Draft thread skewing off again

Let's get it back on track then.

Who should we take between CDT and Sharp?

Interested in hearing everyone's opinions.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I don't understand how one club (i.e. Gold Coast), who finished in the top 6, can have enough "points" to match 4 bids in the top 17 of a draft? How does this ridiculous points system work? Is pick 50 and 52 equal to pick 5 or something and they just went around hoovering up a bunch of late picks the other clubs didn't want and that then translated into enough "points" for 4 top 17 players?

They did trade out 4 pretty decent players

Just because we don't trade out any players with half an ounce of trade value and instead let them rot on our list until they're traded for pick 1675, doesn't mean other clubs aren't clever enough to trade out players with some value for the better of their club

 

[eaglespremiers]

No, not explosive and just an even worse version of Greeves.

He is absolutely explosive and far quicker than Greeves.

 

[Obeanie1]

When all the draftees are over West would love a photo shoot.

On one side lined up.

Lycett, Yeo, Shuey, Sheed. Kennedy and Gov.

On the other side.

CDT, Duursma, Harley, Hewett, Shanahan and Ginbey.

In the middle Mini holding the 2018 premiership cup.

That picture would say a 1,000 words.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I know we just took CDT, but I really like the look of this kid - Zayden Lockwood. Look him up. I tried to up load a video off YouTube but it is too large. This guy has a crazy ceiling.

Any relation to Zaydyn Lockwood? Now that kid can play.
Seeing as you can't upload your video here's a video for you that I produced:

 

[TY24]

What about the optics of the back to back premiers and a rising preliminary finalist hoarding a bunch of elite prospects in the top half of the first round? Or the second-worst team from last year ending up with their first pick at #7?

I can't imagine that having one club lodge three bids in a row is any worse than the draft going bid, bid, pick, bid, bid.

Allowing a 3rd bid makes those already bad optics even worse.

Suddenly GC have 2 top 5 picks instead of 2 top 10 picks.

 

[Obeanie1]

We were completely outsmarted and outflanked again.

Can we recruit some GC recruiters.

They’re sharp.

We bled them.

They were forced to bring forward multiple future picks.

I'm hoping we are playing a long game and looking at Walters at some point, even 2026.

 

[beatlesmith]

Please accept my info as truth. We didn't expect them to match.

Was it that we didn’t expect that they would match, or didn't realise that they could match?

One is an understandable misjudgment, the other a total bungle.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

3 picks before us. If we they don't bid on Tylah do we take one of these and then have only one spot left for Tylah/Banfield/Evans if bids come in?

 

[Coasters7]

Again.

The fact they can afford to trade these players because they’re getting replaced with top 5 picks is the issue, and it’s only going to get worse.

Theyll have guys like Rogers and Walter on the table next year and around we go again. It’s already self sufficient farming system and it doesn’t really matter what changes are made to the bidding system.

 

[Obeanie1]

Another aspect of the WA talent well drying up that concerns me is that both us and Freo have typically been heavily dependent on bringing WA players home through free agency, since we rarely get considered by eastern states natives unless they're Jayden Hunt types who are basically needing a lifeline. Look at Freo's recent trades/signings: Jordan Clark, Luke Jackson, Jaeger O'Meara, Shai Bolton, Judd McVee. All WA natives. We haven't been as active but have still brought home Starcevich this year and also have players like Kelly, Yeo and Cripps being acquired after being drafted by eastern clubs.

If the WA talent pool stinks and then in addition to not be able to draft as much local talent, there also won't be as many good players to lure home.

Eagles haven't relied on the go home factor as much.

Freo seem much more active in that space.

 

[Farmer Lister]

Let's get it back on track then.

Who should we take between CDT and Sharp?

Interested in hearing everyone's opinions.

JTAUROSRORCT

Just take an umbrella review of systematic reviews of randomised control trials

 

[eaglevision]

For those that know more than me, what Onleys knock?

Endurance seems to the main issue. What was his 2km TT?

Needs a tank, poor kick, needs to take some angry pills and use his size.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

The fact they can afford to trade these players because they’re getting replaced with top 5 picks is the issue, and it’s only going to get worse.

Theyll have guys like Rogers and Walter on the table next year and around we go again. It’s already self sufficient farming system and it doesn’t really matter what changes are made to the bidding system.

100%. Not saying otherwise. They can take the cream of the crop, then onsell those they don't want/can't squeeze in/seeking higher salaries, and replace with very good rookies on low salaries for 3 years. It's a great system for them. Not so much us.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

They did trade out 4 pretty decent players

Just because we don't trade out any players with half an ounce of trade value and instead let them rot on our list until they're traded for pick 1675, doesn't mean other clubs aren't clever enough to trade out players with some value for the better of their club

Well, some of those players (like Lukosius) they didn't want to lose - they requested trades and Gold Coast were forced to trade them. As for others who wanted to leave and Gold Coast didn't put up a fight (like Flanders), they have the luxury of doing that because they have ridiculous depth in their system because lo and behold, they get players like Matt Rowell for free (priority pick) and also get discounts on a constant parade of academy players. If we had a contracted player like Flanders we wouldn't be letting him walk because (a) he'd be a required player getting plenty of time on ball, and (b) we don't have a truckload of recent and incoming first round picks ready to replace him.

 

[Obeanie1]

3 picks before us. If we they don't bid on Tylah do we take one of these and then have only one spot left for Tylah/Banfield/Evans if bids come in?

And North and Dogs need tall defenders.

We will have a chance at BOB, NHH or Phillipou.

BOB would be a decent pick up.

 

[squashface]

I thought the PSD and Rookie Draft was also today but looks like it's tomorrow.

AFL loves nothing more than squeezing every single bit of content for all it's got. Three days for the draft - spare me.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

Allowing a 3rd bid makes those already bad optics even worse.

Suddenly GC have 2 top 5 picks instead of 2 top 10 picks.

They did have two top 5 picks! Patterson went at #5 after the Richmond bid!

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Let's get it back on track then.

Who should we take between CDT and Sharp?

Interested in hearing everyone's opinions.

Neither, we should take Ollie Greeves.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

I thought the PSD and Rookie Draft was also today but looks like it's tomorrow.

AFL loves nothing more than squeezing every single bit of content for all it's got. Three days for the draft - spare me.

Always been the day after.