Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[Pencil case]

If we "knew" he was going to be a star he would have been bidden on with pick 1.

I don’t get this argument, Nick Daicos was pick 4 in the same draft. Lots of recruiters said they would have taken him at pick 1.

It’s not like Darcy slid, pick 2 says to me that everyone knew he’d be a star. Yes he had injuries and was raw, but he had ‘it’ from day one, dominated his juniors.

 

[The White Mouse]

I'm inclined to send Naughton back now and keep Croft fwd. You can see what Croft will be in 2027. He and Darcy will be 2 different and extremely difficult match ups and you need your compliment of mediums and smalls to mop up when it inevitably turns to sh1t for the defence trying to stop them.

A consistant and quality supply of ball from The Bont, The Fridge and Butters should ensure maximum level pant sh1tting at CB from every defence in the league.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I don’t get this argument, Nick Daicos was pick 4 in the same draft. Lots of recruiters said they would have taken him at pick 1.

Lots of others wouldn't have, including the two that mattered and we can measure provably.

It’s not like Darcy slid, pick 2 says to me that everyone knew he’d be a star.

This isn't a natural logical conclusion. You can draft for upside. You can project different likelihoods for different players into the future and make that part of your process. The high ceiling/low floor logic.

The idea of being 207cm means that your ceiling is very high. But it can also mean that you're less likely to be a star than if a midfielder was drafted pick 2.

This actually plays out in reality - if you look at very tall position players drafted in the top 5 of the draft, you can get some of the most impactful players that play the game (e.g. Nic Naitanui, 3x All-Australian), but also get busts (Josh Schache). If you draft a midfielder with pick 2, you're less likely to get a dominant player, but less likely to get a complete bust, and more likely to get a very good servicable player in the middle (e.g. Stephen Coniglio).

If we define 'star' as e.g. a top 100 player in the league, it can be true that Darcy was more likely to be a top 3 player in the league than a midfielder pick 2 but less likely to be a top 100 player in the league than a midfielder pick 2.

Yes he had injuries and was raw, but he had ‘it’

Which again was the reason he was pick 2, but it doesn't mean that he was a guaranteed pick 2 any more than other key position pick 1-3 type players have also sometimes also had 'it' and yet failed to ever truly become stars (as we've seen with pick 1-3 players Kreuzer, Watts, Boyd, Patton McCartin, Cadman, Gumbleton, Schache, Hansen, Day, Plowman)

dominated his juniors.

Due to COVID he never quite had the body of work in juniors in environments where there were other future AFL players around him. The game where he kicked a bag for Geelong College in school footy was comically against come skinny 6'3" key defender (sub 190cm) 17 year old trying his best to defend him, it was comical.

Sam Darcy Draft Profile

central.rookieme.com

 

[_Cerberus_]

Hoping Croft is being tried as a backman. Our forward line functioned so well when we had just Naughton and Darcy as the 2 talls. Adding Croft whilst playing ok disrupted our structure completely

Our forward line worked fine with JUH, Naughton and Darcy. No reason why it cannot still work now. But even then, we rotated them a lot, so it was still only two talls inside 50 for most of the game. I think with JUH gone, Croft is marked as that third option if needed.

No room for him down back. Assuming we revert back to two tall defenders in the AFL. We have Busslinger, Darcy, Emmett, Walker to develop. No room for a fifth, whilst remembering we also have Gards down there. I think we will see Walker and Croft be the two lead forwards for us in the VFL in 2026.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I think our recent and clear emphasis on recruiting backmen with Walker, Darcy and Emmett. Not to mention Sellwood,
Carmichael, the recruitment of Bauderick and other guys already on the list that may continue to be developed in defence.

Means that the likelihood of Croft being sent to defence seems remote.

It also goes a long way to explain why the club only really went for moon shots during the trade period when they were casting about for potential fullbacks. And when that didn't happen despite all of the outside noise. They were content to move onto the draft. Its the hallmark of everything that Sam Power and his list management ethos seems to stand for.

It feels weird to say. But for the first time in forever. We're stacked with gun and developing talls.

Its now up to the coaching group to make the most of them.

There's been a definitive shift over the last couple of years in a list management strategy point of view, that we should aim for recruiting players in their natural positions, having balanced depth position wise, and trusting the idea that we can develop players over the medium term.

I genuinely think that this came out of the review of the failure of 2023 and where it got wrong. In our famous post-season review, doing proper analysis of our football department decision making and the weaknesses it led to. Ie, our previous short-term thinking in list management. At that time, we basically filled the team about 15 superstar players and then treated the remaining 25 list spots as how we could sledgehammer them into the remaining 7 spots, which led to outcomes such as playing Johannisen as a forward and giving Robbie McComb his AFL games.

Instead, we've clearly shifted to the fact that we need a developing and balanced spread of skillsets, player types and positions, even if it means developing them for a few years or overlooking some low-floor weaknesses.

The extent of our 'success' if you can call it that from 2019-2022 really depended on both obtaining and then nailing top 20 draft picks earlier on, and executing smart trades, but it was clearly not a 5+ year sustainable, repeatable method every year of smart list management over a 10+ year "generation" of AFL footballers.

 

[BomToydd]

I'm inclined to send Naughton back now and keep Croft fwd. You can see what Croft will be in 2027. He and Darcy will be 2 different and extremely difficult match ups and you need your compliment of mediums and smalls to mop up when it inevitably turns to sh1t for the defence trying to stop them.

A consistant and quality supply of ball from The Bont, The Fridge and Butters should ensure maximum level pant sh1tting at CB from every defence in the league.

Naughton doesn't have the skill or composure to play in defence. He would leak so many goals turning it over coming out of defence. I'd rather see Darcy moved back in games where our tall defenders are struggling

 

[HK_Bulldog]

Agreed.
Darcy, Naughton
West, Weightman, Resting-MID (Bont/Kennedy etc), Dolan/VDM/McNeil - Generally how I see our forward line functioning going forward.

I see some big Moore / Easton Wood type vibes from Croft, really would like to see him down back long term.

Only a small sample size but Naughton went back to early season crap Naughton when Croft came in.
Don’t know if it’s coaching or the players themselves but I’m yet to be convinced we know how to use a 3 tall forward line.
Which is pretty poor if you ask me because we’ve had 4 good tall forwards for 3 years now and not been able to make it work. Whereas a team like Adelaide were so potent this year with 4 talls.

 

[_Cerberus_]

I'm inclined to send Naughton back now and keep Croft fwd. You can see what Croft will be in 2027. He and Darcy will be 2 different and extremely difficult match ups and you need your compliment of mediums and smalls to mop up when it inevitably turns to sh1t for the defence trying to stop them.

A consistant and quality supply of ball from The Bont, The Fridge and Butters should ensure maximum level pant sh1tting at CB from every defence in the league.

It's been pointed out heaps. No way in any world, is Croft physically ready to be manhandled by teams number two defenders.

Naughton struggled a bit when Darcy was out, and exploded once Darcy returned. Naughton and Darcy are essential to each other, to protect one another from being double teamed, and freeing each other up. Moving Naughton back, will see Darcy double teamed and shut down. Croft is still too inexperienced and skinny to take advantage of that yet.

 

[stefoid]

How does crofts running power (speed and endurance) compare to say, VDM? If VDMs super power is running to the right spots to deny the opposition easy exits from our forward half, imagine how much more intimidating it would be to see croft in those spots instead.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I'm inclined to send Naughton back now and

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Darcy, Croft, and Emmett are all going to be pretty effin good 2nd ruck options too as they get bigger/stronger.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

How does crofts running power (speed and endurance) compare to say, VDM? If VDMs super power is running to the right spots to deny the opposition easy exits from our forward half, imagine how much more intimidating it would be to see croft in those spots instead.

I would hazard a guess VDM's better. Croft's endurance is more valuable because you're more likely to find poor-endurance AFL players who are tall though.

There are virtually no short players in the AFL with poor endurance, because there are so many 5'9" blokes running around actively playing Aussie Rules at some level(it is literally the average male height, the bell curve) that the cream that rises to the top tends to have elite skills in all other areas, but their height with regard to the benefits of reach and wingspan, and associated elements (ie strength through correlated to height through more absolute muscle mass on a taller, bigger player) limits them as a player. On the other hand, tall is an advantage, so you're more likely to find poorer endurance players.

The fact that VDM's endurance stands out even relative to other short players is a suggestion that his endurance is one of the best in the competition.

There's the meme stat that he led the league in repeat sprints (or whatever the stat was) that proves it. I doubt Croft's getting anywhere near the repeat sprints record.

 

[dogwatch]

I’m getting confused.

Time to start calling them Sarcy and Warcy.

And hopefully Marcy in a couple of years.

 

[The White Mouse]

It's been pointed out heaps. No way in any world, is Croft physically ready to be manhandled by teams number two defenders.

Naughton struggled a bit when Darcy was out, and exploded once Darcy returned. Naughton and Darcy are essential to each other, to protect one another from being double teamed, and freeing each other up. Moving Naughton back, will see Darcy double teamed and shut down. Croft is still too inexperienced and skinny to take advantage of that yet.

Theres more than one way to skin a cat though if you're ultimately targetting 2027.

Play him on a hf flank. Swing Naughts next year but cement him down back in 2027. Thats 2 more pre seasons for Croft, more bulk and experience.

I dont accept the argument that Naughts is no good down back. He was fine when he first started .. well Jack Reiwoldt thought so. He just needs to be reacquainted with the role.

 

[BLACAE]

Croft will become a wingmen within three years time

That was the role I suggested for Schache. At that height and with that running capacity and ability to move forward and screw with the defence would be awesome. Schache was a better kick, but that can be worked on.

 

[grassman75]

I think our recent and clear emphasis on recruiting backmen with Walker, Darcy and Emmett. Not to mention Sellwood,
Carmichael, the recruitment of Bauderick and other guys already on the list that may continue to be developed in defence.

Means that the likelihood of Croft being sent to defence seems remote.

It also goes a long way to explain why the club only really went for moon shots during the trade period when they were casting about for potential fullbacks. And when that didn't happen despite all of the outside noise. They were content to move onto the draft. Its the hallmark of everything that Sam Power and his list management ethos seems to stand for.

It feels weird to say. But for the first time in forever. We're stacked with gun and developing talls.

Its now up to the coaching group to make the most of them.

And now we don’t have enough quality smalls. Need Cody to stay fit, west to continue his form from last year and Artie to finally take the next step

 

[grassman75]

I’m getting confused.

Time to start calling them Sarcy and Warcy.

And hopefully Marcy in a couple of years.

And I’m locking in Bundy as Marcy’s nickname already….Marcy Darcy…Al’s next door neighbour

 

[Mofra]

Only a small sample size but Naughton went back to early season crap Naughton when Croft came in.
Don’t know if it’s coaching or the players themselves but I’m yet to be convinced we know how to use a 3 tall forward line.
Which is pretty poor if you ask me because we’ve had 4 good tall forwards for 3 years now and not been able to make it work. Whereas a team like Adelaide were so potent this year with 4 talls.

It works fine with Darcy deep, Naughton higher and Croft roaming mostly outside the 50.

Our HFs play so high so it's less of an issue, especially given Croft's tank and Matt Kennedy's boot. We normally play a purely defensive forward as well (at times both VDM & McNeill but this season I think we're better off playing just one defensive forward)

 

[Libbaaaa]

That was the role I suggested for Schache. At that height and with that running capacity and ability to move forward and screw with the defence would be awesome. Schache was a better kick, but that can be worked on.

I know Croft performed well in last years time trial but what is required in actual games is a completely different beast. Running all game from goal square to goal square like Dempsey or Langdon and getting involved in contest is just a little too much to ask for big blokes.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

And now we don’t have enough quality smalls. Need Cody to stay fit, west to continue his form from last year and Artie to finally take the next step

I think that theres enough untried mid/utility talent on the list to cover that for the time being.

However much hinges on being able to get Butters over the line to bolster the next gen of top tier midfield talent that we have coming through. With Richards, Freijah, Sanders and McNeil.

 

[Distinctive_]

I think that theres enough untried mid/utility talent on the list to cover that for the time being.

However much hinges on being able to get Butters over the line to bolster the next gen of top tier midfield talent that we have coming through. With Richards, Freijah, Sanders and McNeil.

One name is not like the others

 

[DiamondDogs8]

I think that theres enough untried mid/utility talent on the list to cover that for the time being.

However much hinges on being able to get Butters over the line to bolster the next gen of top tier midfield talent that we have coming through. With Richards, Freijah, Sanders and McNeil.

And WHO?!

 

[Doggy]

And WHO?!

Sam Darcy, our 208cm midfielder

 

[DiamondDogs8]

Sam Darcy, our 208cm midfielder

25cm taller yet still cleaner at ground level than McNeil

 

[bobs head soup]

I think that theres enough untried mid/utility talent on the list to cover that for the time being.

However much hinges on being able to get Butters over the line to bolster the next gen of top tier midfield talent that we have coming through. With Richards, Freijah, Sanders and McNeil.