Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

[wannabejack]

FAFO for Putin & Russia



Sounds like Baltic Sea will be off limits soon to any illegally registered and uninsured vessels - no matter where they are from.


And it has to be the case as the Baltic sea is one of the busiest shipping corridors in the world.

At all times all operators must meet requirements.

"So you have a new to-sink list for Ukraine"

 

[Zidane98]

"So you have a new to-sink list for Ukraine"

That's a great idea.

Imagine the banter on the emails between the EU and Ukraine about the list of identified shadow fleet tankers.

It's a question if the Russians are dumb enough to try sending vessels banned from Baltic Sea ports to Black Sea ports.

One step closer to Russia only having access to Pacific ports and / overland pipelines into Asia for natural resources delivery.

 

[Zidane98]

Why won't Putin save Russian lives by stopping his war?


#Russianlivesmatter - stop young Russians dying needlessly at war, end the war. War is bad.


Am I doing it right barreness ?

 

[Aussie in exile]

Why won't Putin save Russian lives by stopping his war?


#Russianlivesmatter - stop young Russians dying needlessly at war, end the war. War is bad.


Am I doing it right barreness ?

barrenessky like putin doesn't care how many russians die

 

[wannabejack]

Why won't Putin save Russian lives by stopping his war?


#Russianlivesmatter - stop young Russians dying needlessly at war, end the war. War is bad.


Am I doing it right barreness ?

ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE Avenges Bucha Massacre. Routs RU 76th Air Assault Division at Pokrovsk

The news of the destruction and routing of the Russian mechanized assault on the western flank of Pokrovsk by Ukrainian forces is a few days old now and may have already been posted by others here on Kos. But I would like to point to another angle of...

www.dailykos.com

The war crimes this Russian unit and others committed against the civilian population of Bucha will forever live in infamy.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Ludovico]

Only really have the Reddit link but seems Russia lost another sub

Looks like a Kilo class joined the submerged fleet under its flagship the Moskva.

Some indications that a camera installed on the headquarters building instead of only feeding signal inside the building was hooked up to the net and the feed hacked by the SBU. The drone waited for the booms to be raised during entry of a ship to come inside the inner harbour.

The current Russian minimisation strategy is to claim the drone hit the pier not the sub. The footage doesnt look like that but we will see. I guess it's possible the sub succumbed to pier pressure?

Interested in Barrenusha's take. (I think the hypocoristic is warranted)

 

[wannabejack]

https://www.government.se/statements/2025/12/joint-statement-of-european-leaders-from-the-meeting-in-berlin/

Both the US and European leaders committed to work together to provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine in the context of an agreement on ending the war. This would include commitments to:

• Provide sustained and significant support to Ukraine to build its armed forces, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000 to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory.
• A European-led ‘multinational force Ukraine’ made up from contributions from willing nations within the framework of the Coalition of the Willing and supported by the US. It will assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.
• A US led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation to provide early warning of any future attack and attribute and respond to any breaches along with a deconfliction mechanism to work on mutual deescalatory actions that can be taken to benefit all parties.
• A legally binding commitment, subject to national procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack. These measures may include armed force, intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic actions.
• Invest in the future prosperity of Ukraine, including making major resources available for recovery and reconstruction, mutually beneficial trade agreements, and taking into account the need for Russia to compensate Ukraine for the damage caused. In this vein, Russian sovereign assets in the European Union have been immobilised.
• Strongly support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

 

[CD Xbow]

Article from ASPI by the very wonderfully named Prof. Darius von Guttner, expert in central Europe and vampire slaying, about historical problems with the potential partitioning of Ukraine.

Shadows of 1795: why Ukraine fears peace built on partition | The Strategist

Proposals for a Ukraine peace deal that accept Russian territorial gains repeat the old pattern of great powers dividing weaker states. It is a pattern set in the partitions of Poland in 1795 and revived ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

 

[Visions]

Yes it's long gone. All the respected mappers have it taken months ago, even deepstate has given up(the old big grey area style)

Is this in addition to some disreputable ones like Putin and yourself?

 

[Zidane98]

The pain continues for Russia

 

[1990crow]

This ain't ending any time soon. Russia will just keep throwing more and more men at it.
The problem for the West (Europe, US couldn't care less) is they can't just send NATO in, and eventually Russia will take over the heavily fortified areas which will make defending very difficult for Ukraine

 

[Zidane98]

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

The pain continues for Russia

Still not being felt by the public.

 

[Zidane98]

This ain't ending any time soon. Russia will just keep throwing more and more men at it.
The problem for the West (Europe, US couldn't care less) is they can't just send NATO in, and eventually Russia will take over the heavily fortified areas which will make defending very difficult for Ukraine

Looking at things as they are any state that is accountable would have pulled out by now considering with the damage suffered to Russia and losses amassed.

Russia only continues this war because Putin is a dictator with total power totally obsessed with his delusions of creating a new Russian empire. Military losses, economic losses, casualties would all lead to a complete withdrawal in any state where leadership is held accountable.

As a result this invasion continues until either:

- Putin is executed or sent to prison in disgrace after destroying Russia continuing the war.

- Russia collapses to such a point that it simply cannot afford to continue to pursue Putin's goal of a new Russian empire. That point happening at some point in the future is inevitable - it is simply a question whether that comes first or Ukraine giving in to Putin's demands.


Annexations are useless to Russia without Ukrainian agreement and international recognition which is Putin's objective.

 

[Zidane98]

Still not being felt by the public.

We'll see after 6-12 months of their shadow fleet oil trade being heavily restricted.

 

[Saint]

Still not being felt by the public.

It's like North Korea. They don't know what they're missing out on, and will be paying the price for generations.

Russia still has Chinese gadgets coming in.

It's not like Western economic growth is built on the flow of physical goods any more.

It's AI, leisure items and social media driving economic growth. Russia being left without them, or international travel isn't really a big deal.

 

[Zidane98]

Russian S400 system wiped from inventory by Ukraine :



$500 million down the drain as well as $25 million of missiles.

No casualties either.

 

[Zidane98]

Russia has around 40 of these left now according to google after having as many as 56-60.

Ukraine has taken out 14-16 systems at a cost of $8 billion to the Russian military budget.

 

[Zidane98]

It's like North Korea. They don't know what they're missing out on, and will be paying the price for generations.

Russia still has Chinese gadgets coming in.

It's not like Western economic growth is built on the flow of physical goods any more.

It's AI, leisure items and social media driving economic growth. Russia being left without them, or international travel isn't really a big deal.

Russia is heavily reliant on commercial aviation.

That industry has been obliterated thanks to sanctions, suspension from IATA, ICAO. The people are feeling it as no nation on earth relies more on air travel than Russia.

More here:

Russia’s Airline Industry Can Collapse Amid Severe Spare Parts Crunch

Russia's civilian aviation industry is facing a severe crisis as international sanctions cut off access to critical spare parts.

aviationa2z.com

They've relied previously on stripping commercial aircraft that Putin officially stole from lessors based in Ireland to maintain a reduced schedule.

If nothing changes only a fraction of flights will be able to run as Russia desperately seeks parts from 3rd party countries or tries to manufacture counterfeit parts itself leading to disaster.

 

[Zidane98]

Russian military units denazified

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

Not a good week for vatniks

 

[wannabejack]

Sanctions Worked, Western Caution Didn’t: European Diplomats Regret ‘Lost Momentum’ in Stopping Russia Early

European ambassadors in Washington say fear of escalation slowed pressure on Moscow – giving Russia time to adapt and prolong its war in Ukraine.

www.kyivpost.com

Fear of escalation, concerns about energy markets and limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities gave Moscow time to adapt, spread false narratives and entrench the conflict.

Across the panel, the message was consistent: Russia is paying a heavy economic price – but Western hesitation shaped the battlefield and prolonged Russia’s war in Ukraine.