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Opinion AUSTRALIAN Politics: Adelaide Board Discussion Part 6

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“Persistent, clustered breakdowns:” Coal clunkers fail the grid with 119 outages​

9 DECEMBER 2025 2:52 PM

The fleet of remaining coal-fired power plants on Australia’s main grid suffered a combined 119 breakdowns, or unscheduled outages, over the past six months, new data has revealed, and were out of action for an average of 22 per cent of that time.

The analysis from Reliability Watch is its latest report using data submitted to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the capacity coal plants have available to the National Electricity Market (NEM) every five minutes.

The report shows that at the beginning of April, 2025, the 15 coal plants spread across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria submitted 23 planned maintenance shutdowns for the period until the end of September.

But instead of the 23 outages expected by AEMO, there were actually 142 outages – including 119 breakdowns – over the six months.

All told, the coal plants were unavailable to meet their generation commitments 22 per cent of the time, the report says. This means an average of 4.7 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity was not available to the NEM on any given day.
 
Doctor B said:

“Persistent, clustered breakdowns:” Coal clunkers fail the grid with 119 outages​

9 DECEMBER 2025 2:52 PM

The fleet of remaining coal-fired power plants on Australia’s main grid suffered a combined 119 breakdowns, or unscheduled outages, over the past six months, new data has revealed, and were out of action for an average of 22 per cent of that time.

The analysis from Reliability Watch is its latest report using data submitted to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the capacity coal plants have available to the National Electricity Market (NEM) every five minutes.

The report shows that at the beginning of April, 2025, the 15 coal plants spread across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria submitted 23 planned maintenance shutdowns for the period until the end of September.

But instead of the 23 outages expected by AEMO, there were actually 142 outages – including 119 breakdowns – over the six months.

All told, the coal plants were unavailable to meet their generation commitments 22 per cent of the time, the report says. This means an average of 4.7 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity was not available to the NEM on any given day.
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Why didn't you put the link up?

Don't answer that I know why, such an unbiased source hey...Renew Economy.
 
pjcrows said:
Says the bloke who sources the IPA for his posts...
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And no doubt you live on the Australia Institute site lefty.

Of course the "öld" coal power stations tend to break down more nowadays given they haven't had the maintenance required because it was thought they weren't going to be required for much longer and were nearing their use by date, how wrong was that thinking turned out when the reality is much different. If all these "old" coal power stations working life wasn't extendied we'd be living in the dark currently or be paying exorbitant prices for electricity with gas that other fossil fuel the only real alternative to keep the lights on.

FYI I very very rarely post anything from the IPA which you would know if you had been a regular poster here but RENEW ECONOMY gets run up the flagpole on this thread very very very regularly by the leftists.
 
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Mutineer said:
And no doubt you live on the Australia Institute site lefty.

Of course the "öld" coal power stations tend to break down more nowadays given they haven't had the maintenance required because it was thought they weren't going to be required for much longer and were nearing their use by date, how wrong was that thinking turned out when the reality is much different. If all these "old" coal power stations working life wasn't extendied we'd be living in the dark currently or be paying exorbitant prices for electricity with gas that other fossil fuel the only real alternative to keep the lights on.

FYI I very very rarely post anything from the IPA which you would know if you had been a regular poster here but RENEW ECONOMY gets run up the flagpole on this thread very very very regularly by the leftists.
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Never visIted The Australia Institute site in my life, righty.

Why do you only "very very rarely" post something from the IPA? Is it untrustworthy or biased? If so, why post from them at all?
 
pjcrows said:
Never visIted The Australia Institute site in my life, righty.

Why do you only "very very rarely" post something from the IPA? Is it untrustworthy or biased? If so, why post from them at all?
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Because I generally post from well known media sources like the Herald Sun, The Age, Financial Review etc, even the ABC and the Guardian.
 
And this is spot on -

www.thenewdaily.com.au

Our hearts are shattered – and some have broken them further

There is no going back to where we were before December 14. But a social contract Australians relied on has been destroyed by the Coalition.
www.thenewdaily.com.au www.thenewdaily.com.au

Oh and has Sussan Ley yet visited the Syrian Muslim hero in hospital yet?
 
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Mutineer said:
Well, well, well.

In the end, Waratah was not required to inject its power. The “Lack of Reserve 2” situation – where power supplies would be at risk of coming up short if another big generator tripped or failed – was cancelled soon after 7pm, and all directions were also cancelled.

The situation on Thursday was repeated on Friday, when it was directed to hold 725 MWh from 4.20pm before the direction was cancelled just over an hour later. Again, an LOR2 situation had been declared.
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What is you point numbnuts?

Bit it still was there if needed, when coal fired stations weren’t due to maintenance. You really are thick at times.

The more time passes, the more batteries will be installed. The clock keeps ticking which means more renewables, more batteries.
 
kirky said:
What is you point numbnuts?

Bit it still was there if needed, when coal fired stations weren’t due to maintenance. You really are thick at times.

The more time passes, the more batteries will be installed. The clock keeps ticking which means more renewables, more batteries.
Click to expand...
And more of the other fossil fuel GAS which you and the your mob seem to want to dismiss which in reality will be a big part of keeping the lights on in the immediate future and for decades and decades to follow. The day that renewables and batteries make up 100% of the energy supply in Australia may never ever happen.
 
The unfortunate reality bites really hard for our Renew Economy fanbois


Global coal demand in 2025 is set to remain close to 2024 levels amid unusual regional trends

Key factors such as weather, fuel prices and policy decisions all shaped global coal consumption in 2025, driving changes in demand that often ran counter to recent country or regional trend.

In China, which consumes more coal than the rest of the world combined, demand is on course to mirror its 2024 level, as expected. In turn, global coal demand in 2025 is set to be very close to our forecast published in the previous edition of this report a year ago, rising by 0.5% to 8.85 billion tonnes, a record high.
Strong growth in global electricity demand could support coal consumption in the years ahead. But competition with other power sources is also set to intensify, with renewable capacity surging, nuclear expanding steadily, and a wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving on the market.
China remains the key driver of global coal market trends
China consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together. It also produces more coal than all other countries combined, and it is the world’s largest importer. This dominance by a single country makes global coal markets very dependent on developments in China, notably those related to economic growth, government policies, energy markets, weather conditions and dynamics in the Chinese domestic coal sector.
 

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Mutineer said:
And more of the other fossil fuel GAS which you and the your mob seem to want to dismiss which in reality will be a big part of keeping the lights on in the immediate future and for decades and decades to follow. The day that renewables and batteries make up 100% of the energy supply in Australia may never ever happen.
Click to expand...
Who here has dismissed gas to support renewables? I haven't seen a single poster!

Reality is that increased batteries will reduce the reliance on fossil fuels. How quickly depends on technology.
 
www.macrobusiness.com.au

China and India drive record global coal consumption

China (31.8% share in 2024) and India (8.3% share in 2024) have driven the increase in global carbon emissions this century. Both nations have shown an insatiable appetite for coal. In 2024, China accounted for 55.8% of the world’s coal consumption, whereas India accounted for 13.9%. Australia...
www.macrobusiness.com.au www.macrobusiness.com.au

China and India drive record global coal consumption

Leith van Onselen
Friday 19 December 2025

China (31.8% share in 2024) and India (8.3% share in 2024) have driven the increase in global carbon emissions this century.

Global CO2 Emissions
Both nations have shown an insatiable appetite for coal.

In 2024, China accounted for 55.8% of the world’s coal consumption, whereas India accounted for 13.9%. Australia, by contrast, accounted for only 0.9% of the world’s coal consumption in 2024:
 
And more reality for Grim Jim Chalmers,

Why Bullock cancelled the RBA Christmas party

Michele Bullock says she cancelled the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Christmas party because of potential negative perceptions from the “man in the street who is doing it tough” because of cost-of-living pressures.

The workplace decision comes amid renewed inflation pressures and warnings from Bullock that the nine-member monetary policy board may have to raise interest rates next year if the 3.8 per cent headline inflation rate does not fall back inside the target of 2 per cent to 3 per cent.
 
Victoria under this useless corrupt bankrupt Andrews/Allan ALP Government, skyrocketing debt and school buildings crumbling....Try sheeting this home to the Liberals who were only a 1 term Bailleau/Napthine Government when Bracks/Andrew/Allan have been in power for the far greater majority over the last 26 years. No wonder these corrupt Vic Labor Governments have been fighting to keep this report away from the public. Nothing to see here Clam man? Didn't you say you were involved in the building industry?


Cracked walls, ageing heaters, mould: Shock report reveals Vic schools falling apart​

The vast majority of Victorian schools are falling apart, with students sitting in ageing or portable classrooms, or under collapsing ceilings or mouldy walls, a bombshell report has revealed.

The vast majority of Victorian schools are falling apart with collapsing ceilings and walls, widespread mould and ageing portable classrooms.
In a two-year battle for the bombshell report, the Herald Sun can finally reveal the condition score of every government school in the state.

It has exposed widespread critical issues with 1002 campuses, which received just two or three stars out of five.

Only 60 of the 1062 schools surveyed received a condition score of four or five stars.

Twenty-one schools are in the two star category, which is deemed “concerning” by authorities.

This includes Chaffey Secondary College and Brighton Beach Primary, which both ranked 2.87.
Brighton Beach Primary joins several schools in the region to come under political scrutiny, with opposition Attorney-General and Brighton MP James Newbury criticising the Labor state government for failing to upkeep schools in Liberal seats.

“We have schools in our community that are being held up from collapsing,” he said.

“Another that is missing two floors because termites have eaten through it, another that had sections covered in mould because of funding delays in fixing it, and another with specialist children with hearing challenges being forced to learn in a fifty year old demountable next to a train line.
Victorian Greens Leader Ellen Sandell visited Kensington Primary earlier this month and found mouldy ceilings and outdated gas heaters in classrooms.

“I have schools in my local area where classrooms are closed because of mould, students in wheelchairs can’t get to first floor classrooms, and basic upgrades have been left unfinished,” she said.

“After more than a decade in power, Labor has no excuse for leaving public schools with mouldy, inaccessible classrooms. When schools are neglected, children pay the price.”
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson said the hidden scores finally confirmed tens of thousands of students were learning in classrooms not “up to scratch”.

“With one-in-five schools in poor condition and almost two-in-three below the statewide average, it’s clear why Labor fought so hard, for so long to keep these scores hidden,” she said.

“I am appalled by the disgustingly overt way that the Labor government ignores the needs of little children, simply because they live in a Liberal electorate. This government should be ashamed of itself.”

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An interesting read by Kos Samaras -

Why the Median Voter theory and culture wars are failing in modern Australia.

The classic model of electoral competition says parties win by converging on the “median voter” the swing voter in the middle who can genuinely choose between a centre-left and centre-right offer.

That model assumed voters actually swung.

But it was built for a different Australia: decades ago, more homogeneous, less educated, and far less psychologically sorted.

Today’s Australia looks nothing like that.

• 31.5% of Australians were born overseas (as of June 2024). 
• Australia is overwhelmingly urban (World Bank puts it at 86.8% urban in 2024). 

• Education has structurally shifted the electorate: in 2025, approximately 50% of Australians aged under 50, held a bachelor degree or higher. 

• And crucially, we have compulsory voting, plus a system that forces voters to rank preferences rather than just pick a single tribe and walk away. 

Those structural forces, migration, urbanisation, educational expansion, compulsory participation, have helped produce an electorate where identity is increasingly fixed rather than fluid.

People don’t “shop around” the middle like the past. Increasingly, they vote as a reflection of who they are (and who they are not), reinforced by peer networks, online ecosystems, and cultural reference points. The centre still exists but it’s often not persuadable in the old way.

So the median voter theorem didn’t just weaken. In practice, it broke.

The new campaign game: bloc politics + preference efficiency

If bloc politics are real, traditional campaign strategy becomes obsolete.

Because elections stop being about “converting” large pools of soft voters, and start being about:

• holding your bloc together,
• maximising preference flows, and
• punishing fragmentation on the other side.

You can see the shape of this in the 2025 federal result: Labor secured a landslide seat haul (94 seats in a 150-seat House) even as major-party support continues to dilute. 

In 2022, a similar dynamic was at play, Labor winning a majority of seats, whilst recording a record low primary. But it held it’s progressive block together a lot better. Similar trends were seen in both the Victorian and NSW state elections that followed. We even witnessed this in WA, where the correction arrived and ended up just spraying into minor parties.

Strategic implications

For the Coalition

Chasing “soft Labor voters” is, increasingly, chasing ghosts.

The path to victory narrows to two hard options:

1. Consolidate the conservative bloc with genuine preference discipline, difficult when right-of-Coalition alternatives exist precisely because parts of the base feel alienated.

2. Split the progressive bloc by making divisive issues highly salient, difficult when Labor can often neutralise or absorb popular progressive positions without losing its core.

3. Try to target older Australians voting Labor, who still behave like the median voter. It’s however a short term fix given the obvious attrition that will occur as the years roll on.

This isn’t primarily a tactical problem. It’s a structural one.

For Labor

The strategy is simpler, but not easy:

1. Hold the bloc together
2. Keep preference flows healthy from the flanks
3. Don’t start culture wars that cost you your progressive wing
4. Don’t waste time pandering to conservatives who were never available anyway

The lesson of 2025 is that you don’t need to “win the middle” the way the old textbooks insisted, you need to run your preference machine better than your opponent runs theirs. You also need to run a campaign that triggers your opponent’s flanks to bleed into minor parties. Culture wars are a massively contribute to this and up until now, Labor is doing a better job not buying into it.

Conclusion: the new electoral physics

Australian elections are no longer primarily about persuading undecided voters in the centre.

They’re about bloc consolidation and preference efficiency.

And this isn’t cyclical, it’s structural. It will persist, and likely intensify, as Gen Z grows as a share of the electorate and Millennials move into their peak participation years. These two cohorts have ushered in the bloc voting phenomenon and it only really gathered significant steam when they, as a combined group reached critical mass on the electoral roll.

In a bloc-voting world with preferential voting, a fragmented right faces a consolidated left at a permanent disadvantage.

The maths doesn’t require Labor to win every argument.

It just requires Labor to hold its coalition together while the other side can’t. It has a demographic advantage in doing that because its coalition is largely younger, whilst the big C Coalition is much older.
 

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Mutineer said:
And more of the other fossil fuel GAS which you and the your mob seem to want to dismiss which in reality will be a big part of keeping the lights on in the immediate future and for decades and decades to follow. The day that renewables and batteries make up 100% of the energy supply in Australia may never ever happen.
Click to expand...

By all means point out where I’ve said gas is not part of the transition in any of my posts. Have said that continually - what isn’t and won’t be a part of that transition is coal.

Have you got early onset dementia?

And in case you wonder I can have a joke about that issue as well - my dear mother recently passed with alzheimers (suffered for 5 years).
 

Brett Smith ·​

Follow​

dpeoSsntro3mc766f5m47thtic76c83401586709i8l2m7h3c5f7chgglhmm ·


Most of my 'Friends' on this page would know I spent 1/2 my working life as a copper. To be honest, with the exception of the many good people I worked alongside, I don't have many fond memories! Any memorable achievements I had were often cancelled out days later by some appalling senior management decision, or action.
Having said that, I probably would not change anything if I had my time again, because the training and life lessons I got has helped me in life generally. But I think most of the time I forget what I used to do and I'm fine with that!
These recent events around the Bondi tragedy caused me to think about the incident and how it was handled, not that I was ever, (thankfully), involved in anything of this magnitude.
One incident I was involved in, (maybe mid 90's), involved a outlaw motorcycle gang member taking his girlfriend and her 12 year old daughter hostage in a house. The 12 year old had managed to call 000 and informed Police he was holding a gun (.308 calibre rifle) to her mothers head and was threatening to shoot her. The Inspector on scene directed me to go into the house saying; "your SOT I want you to go in" I wanted to wait for a full SOT team but, stupidly, did what I was told! Luckily he surrendered to me and as a big arse covering exercise by the Inspector, I was given a commissioners commendation for bravery. Less than a week later I was dragged into the Assistant Commissioner's office and hauled over the coals for speaking to a crim in an "Intimidating tone..." I lost it and gave the AC a mouthful, as I sometimes did with these clowns at the top. Whenever a moment in time felt like a worthwhile achievement, it was always snubbed out, very soon after the positive outcome event.
Now we have the desperate response by government to try and show they are doing something by rushing through these proposed firearm law amendments...and they are going to affect many hundreds of thousands of law abiding citizens, including me! No debrief or inquiry into what went wrong (and it appears plenty did go wrong with various agencies) just a big arse covering response to appease the indoctrinated minions that support these imbeciles!
I gave many years to fighting and locking up crims, I've never even had a traffic infringement in nearly 50 years of driving, let alone committed a criminal offence, but in a matter of days, a law will be passed requiring myself and so many other law abiding citizens, to surrender many thousands of dollars in firearms I legally own, 2 of those firearms I only bought in recent months. More than 1/2 of my fireams are handed down from my late grandfather and step-father, including one that I purchased 49 years ago that’s never been fired! I've been made feel like the criminals I used to lock up - and no say, no appeal, just a dictatorship like seizure of my property!
I sit up here in the mountains, rarely go far and always avoid cities...I throw a line for a fish, harvest a deer occasionally (firearm), grow our own veggies etc etc How am I a threat?Can somebody please explain to me how seizing my firearms (and the thousands like me), is going to stop radical Islamists from terrorist attacks?
I don't know where we are going as a country, but it sure as hell does not feel like the country I grew up in
🙁










 
Mutineer said:

Brett Smith ·​

Follow​

dpeoSsntro3mc766f5m47thtic76c83401586709i8l2m7h3c5f7chgglhmm ·


Most of my 'Friends' on this page would know I spent 1/2 my working life as a copper. To be honest, with the exception of the many good people I worked alongside, I don't have many fond memories! Any memorable achievements I had were often cancelled out days later by some appalling senior management decision, or action.
Having said that, I probably would not change anything if I had my time again, because the training and life lessons I got has helped me in life generally. But I think most of the time I forget what I used to do and I'm fine with that!
These recent events around the Bondi tragedy caused me to think about the incident and how it was handled, not that I was ever, (thankfully), involved in anything of this magnitude.
One incident I was involved in, (maybe mid 90's), involved a outlaw motorcycle gang member taking his girlfriend and her 12 year old daughter hostage in a house. The 12 year old had managed to call 000 and informed Police he was holding a gun (.308 calibre rifle) to her mothers head and was threatening to shoot her. The Inspector on scene directed me to go into the house saying; "your SOT I want you to go in" I wanted to wait for a full SOT team but, stupidly, did what I was told! Luckily he surrendered to me and as a big arse covering exercise by the Inspector, I was given a commissioners commendation for bravery. Less than a week later I was dragged into the Assistant Commissioner's office and hauled over the coals for speaking to a crim in an "Intimidating tone..." I lost it and gave the AC a mouthful, as I sometimes did with these clowns at the top. Whenever a moment in time felt like a worthwhile achievement, it was always snubbed out, very soon after the positive outcome event.
Now we have the desperate response by government to try and show they are doing something by rushing through these proposed firearm law amendments...and they are going to affect many hundreds of thousands of law abiding citizens, including me! No debrief or inquiry into what went wrong (and it appears plenty did go wrong with various agencies) just a big arse covering response to appease the indoctrinated minions that support these imbeciles!
I gave many years to fighting and locking up crims, I've never even had a traffic infringement in nearly 50 years of driving, let alone committed a criminal offence, but in a matter of days, a law will be passed requiring myself and so many other law abiding citizens, to surrender many thousands of dollars in firearms I legally own, 2 of those firearms I only bought in recent months. More than 1/2 of my fireams are handed down from my late grandfather and step-father, including one that I purchased 49 years ago that’s never been fired! I've been made feel like the criminals I used to lock up - and no say, no appeal, just a dictatorship like seizure of my property!
I sit up here in the mountains, rarely go far and always avoid cities...I throw a line for a fish, harvest a deer occasionally (firearm), grow our own veggies etc etc How am I a threat?Can somebody please explain to me how seizing my firearms (and the thousands like me), is going to stop radical Islamists from terrorist attacks?
I don't know where we are going as a country, but it sure as hell does not feel like the country I grew up in
🙁
Click to expand...
What a heap of confected, emotional claptrap…

Yeah.. its all about you Brett Smith..
 
Bearded Clam said:
What a heap of confected, emotional claptrap…

Yeah.. its all about you Brett Smith..
Click to expand...

Again, another country bumpkin who says he never goes to the city.

Guns aren’t required in city, end of story.

He should stick to the rivers he fishes.

Another individual who doesn’t get the bigger picture.
 

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