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Teams 2026 Rate My Pre-Season Team

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Bergman playing midfield and resting up forward according to Carr

christian bale smiling GIF
 
Maybe Tomorrow said:
Serong seems unders to me this year. I see Young back in helping him. Young I agree isn't a great pick due to the injury risk, I'll consider anti-PODing him - it's really just assessing how long until he breaks (same as Parish, neither are keepers, both hopfully get to $500k+ quickly and get traded).
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Serong is one I’m torn on, has a big ceiling but really struggles with the tag. He was a extremely frustrating own last season
 
slow day restoring an old cylinder mower thats older than me so thought i'd do a team in between

only 5k in the bank. i'd like to start with about 100k in bank so any forced early trades have at least a bit of scope.

intend to start mccarthy all things going well, but will prob dump a couple of the other wc ones as the rooks work themselves in pre season

ive never warmed to mckercher, parish or draper as players before, so they prob ones that will change. i like to make a team of players i enjoy watching

last years highlight for me was the maric bubble game and the meltdowns in the gameday chat as the masterclass he put on that day unfolded


1766464170338.png
 

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Eagling said:
The big structural quadary for me is - do I go a rookie + $300k versus a Jordan Ridley type; do that twice over, and suddenly I have enough money for a rolled gold premium - only, my perspective is that there are maybe one or two players in that $575k+ bracket worth starting (overall, they might be decent picks for the entire season, but I'm not going to pick one of the plethora of early bye midfield premiums when they'll miss a game, and a down game could see a $50-75k saving.

Add to that the no sub rule, 23 on field (do teams now pick a dedicated R/F), new ruck rules - there are so many changes. Do I absolutely want to pick Sean Darcy? No, but he could be good value, at least to begin with (it wouldn't surprise me if I made a heap of ruck trades - I think Xerri's fixture is really good to begin with, so if I'm spending up, it's probably for him. Jackson and English are nice because I think the jumping rule helps, as well as English being good around the ground. Gawn might benefit from sitting behind play and intercepting, because players might kick more to keep the ball in play.

How much cash generation and spare cash is worth offsetting lost points. Of course, if a rookie outscores a midpricer, then that's an instant win. If I start more rookies than anyone, does that improve my chances of hitting all the winners

If I'm picking on a philosophy of

1: I'm aiming to have an average of 110+ for defence, midfield and ruck keepers, and 100+ for forwards.
2: I'm trying to limit early bye exposure as much as possible.
3: If I'm paying up, I need to have a geniune reason for doing so.
4: If no other parameters are fulfilled, I have to be reasonably confident that, barring injury, I'll make at least $150K+ from the pick;

Then a team structure looks something like this:

View attachment 2499864
Now, the big difference is between my earlier lineup, with McKercher, Houston, Newman, Bergman and Ridley all missing. I think the six fall in that 95-110 range, with various issues with health and role. They could all feasibly work out and sit in that high 100's range, which probably puts them at least breaking even, even if someone like Nas goes at 115ish, just because of the savings. Serong I see as okay value, but am I certain he breaks over 110 again? No - normally I'd take him on value though. LDU is another option, but I like Wardlaw as a breakout option who I have the feeling will take over the mantle as the #1 mid at the Roos. Sean Darcy is cutting things close. Will he be a full ruck share with Jackson, or will Jackson be a utility. Can Darcy stay healthy? Is Sam Draper going to be the #1 ruck at Brisbane? In the forward line, there is a bit more leeway to gamble. For instance, I could put Sid Draper and Treloar in the midfield, and pick up Max King (STK) (even though he's injured until Janurary, and Todd Marshall (defence but concussion risk I think), just because of Job Security and Role benefits. I could maybe take a risk on one of McKercher/Houston etc, and try to weigh up who I think has the best chance of hitting 110+? Jordan Clark is another safe, get what you pay for over the course of the season, 105 avg player. Could you get him cheaper? Probably. How much is that solid role, solid average pick worth, even if he's not going to be top 6 by average in all likelyhood? I don't know.

I think if you're picking an early bye premium player, you have to be reasonably confident that they'll outscore a similarly priced non-bye player by about 10 ppg over the first six weeks, to offset the extra rookie score you'll be taking on. Obviously, best 18 mitigates the risk somewhat, but generally speaking, everyone will have the best rookie scores anyway, barring outliers like a missed selection or benching the wrong rookie.

Knowing all this, can one genuinely look at a team like this, View attachment 2499875and think - yes, I can envisage creating a winning team from this structure. There'll be early pain, but by the time upgrade season comes along, there will be no stopping things, because not only with the cash generation outstrip everyone else in the competion, the cash reserves will be the highest, and the available options will be endless, because not only have we skipped the early bye, but we'll take advantage of an early blip in scoring because of settling in to the season, the magic number has adjusted, pushing prices down.

Say with the cash remaining, one could grab 3 more premiums off the bat. And say you nail the worst rookies, the ones that make $100k, and say that the premiums you pick end up falling about $50k - so you lose about $450k of extra value, on top of spending most of your cash reserve. But the benefit is - about 1000 extra points over the first six weeks (3*195 + 3*130), assuming you're picking bye-effected players who will score 115ppg. The question is, can you make up those lost 1000 points, over the remaining 18 rounds of the season, if your team value is $2m higher than anyone else. I think the mid-season byes hurt a little bit, if you get consistency. If you nail the ceiling options, like the rucks, maybe that warchest helps you instead. And just for clarity - 19 out of the top 25, and 22 of the top 30 most expensive players, have that early bye. The outliers are:

Gawn - he's up there in age now. New ruck changes - I don't think he's definitively going to be hamstrung, but I'm reluctant to spend up on someone with his profile.

Xerri - probably the ruck I'd be willing to spend up on, just due to the fixture - because I think targeting ruck fixtures are a gold mine.

Butters - gold early fixture. Helps that there's just about no other uberpremium midfield option around him without that early bye.

Brayshaw - who knows who gets the lion's share out of the Freo midfield. Young comes in. Does Serong bounce back? Does Jackson eat up some of the pie? Does Sean Darcy, indirectly?

Dawson - I like him, but he drops stinkers. His three lowest scores were between Rounds 5 to 9; prime for cheap upgrade; and he was decent value at $550k - $610k is too steep.

Jackson - I think the ruck rules probably help, but so many other question marks over role, ruck share. If Darcy goes down, I probably pick him though.

Zerrett - who knows; could be a 115 player, or could languish in that 105-110 range after the disappointment of not getting an off-season move.

Sheezel - everyone serious is picking him. No point discussing.

Even looking at the bye options, can I see anyone going 10ppg higher than their starting priced to average; over the first 6 weeks? Barring an outlier 170+, probably not. Maybe Jack Sinclair or Tim English could hit a 120 average early; but I think the most likely thing is that these players come into their own in the middle of the season, and that's when they hit their stride.
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I think you have outdone me on a pre-season post word count.

Though your thoughts are what we all say internally and then we look at previous seasons scoring, maybe some heat maps, injury history and current training news.

Though most of it is guess work until match simulation practice starts in mid to late January.

Who will be the rookie priced playerswho get a walk up start is the first question to be asked.

Second is there any good news from a returning injured player at a reduced price from previous seasons.
Though risk is involved in some, who have had repeatedly the same injury be it concussion or hammy’s etc.

Then it comes down the non-negotiable premiums. I like 2 in each line and hopefully 3-4 on in midfield.

Though the last problem getting these premiums limits the previous two conditions especially with the higher priced rookies.

So what is the sacrifice.

More midpricers or more bottom priced rookies??

Or

Stack up a line say DEF or FWDs.

Or

Who knows coz I eternally suck at this game but I keep playing it each year.

What I do know is reading thousands of posts on teams does two things.

1st is Convergence.

Most teams slowly become more and more similar or template to each other. This may be either premium, midpricers or rookie choices. You will read people who may have choked their chicken too much saying ‘this guy is a lock’ or ‘must have’, well this is just a sticky situation, don’t get sucked in, play the game your way.

2nd is False Validation.

I don’t think this needs explaining.

Instead if you have the time, take a close look at the 5-10 players above and below the one’s you are planning to pick at a certain price point.

Look at score deviations, position changes, time on ground, influence in scores or tackle count etc.

Remember that last years stars who broke out may be this years never agains.

Examples can be supplied by others who have been burnt by players and even if they are the highest scorers like say Lachie Whitfield or JHF will never be drafted or traded into their sides.

Ok thats enough dribble from me for the year.

Hope everyone had a great and safe festive season.
 
dabombers said:
I think you have outdone me on a pre-season post word count.

Though your thoughts are what we all say internally and then we look at previous seasons scoring, maybe some heat maps, injury history and current training news.

Though most of it is guess work until match simulation practice starts in mid to late January.

Who will be the rookie priced playerswho get a walk up start is the first question to be asked.

Second is there any good news from a returning injured player at a reduced price from previous seasons.
Though risk is involved in some, who have had repeatedly the same injury be it concussion or hammy’s etc.

Then it comes down the non-negotiable premiums. I like 2 in each line and hopefully 3-4 on in midfield.

Though the last problem getting these premiums limits the previous two conditions especially with the higher priced rookies.

So what is the sacrifice.

More midpricers or more bottom priced rookies??

Or

Stack up a line say DEF or FWDs.

Or

Who knows coz I eternally suck at this game but I keep playing it each year.

What I do know is reading thousands of posts on teams does two things.

1st is Convergence.

Most teams slowly become more and more similar or template to each other. This may be either premium, midpricers or rookie choices. You will read people who may have choked their chicken too much saying ‘this guy is a lock’ or ‘must have’, well this is just a sticky situation, don’t get sucked in, play the game your way.

2nd is False Validation.

I don’t think this needs explaining.

Instead if you have the time, take a close look at the 5-10 players above and below the one’s you are planning to pick at a certain price point.

Look at score deviations, position changes, time on ground, influence in scores or tackle count etc.

Remember that last years stars who broke out may be this years never agains.

Examples can be supplied by others who have been burnt by players and even if they are the highest scorers like say Lachie Whitfield or JHF will never be drafted or traded into their sides.

Ok thats enough dribble from me for the year.

Hope everyone had a great and safe festive season.
Click to expand...

There is an easy theoretical answer to these questions. (Although It these three phrases.

1. Maximise points on field.
2 rookies determine structure
3. Any player who can make you 150k is a rookie.

What it boils down to is at the start of the season we have about 9M to fill 23 spots. If the magic number means 500k. = 100 points (the magic number varies but it’s about that so let’s roll with it) then it stands to reason that a team at expected production should score 1800 points with some variation.

Rookies are typically priced between 20-40 ppg (100-200k) these players typically get to 60-80ppg and are making 1.5-4 points per dollar more then their starting price.

The game is set up that each spot on average has about 400k to spend. So if you pick 23 rookies you are flying in points per dollar but you have about 6M left over and that’s money wasted as it’s not points on field

From there swap in 2-4 captain options as their points count for double. You can afford to be less efficient in points per dollar here as bulk points and reliability is king.

Should have about 4M left now. now do trade math aka how many premiums do I need to start with. (Assuming 2 trades for your average premium) Typically 10-12 in total.

Now find the cheapest players you believe will be keepers on their line. (95+ forwards, 105+ Def 110+ mids/rucks) Typically they will have been successful in the past and will be in the vast majority of teams. See Sam Flanders this year.

Then focus on premiums who will be keepers but are undervalued or have a favourable early season schedule.

Truth is people talk about premiums heaps but they are largely interchangeable and won’t make or sink your team.
 
jdstorm said:
There is an easy theoretical answer to these questions. (Although It these three phrases.

1. Maximise points on field.
2 rookies determine structure
3. Any player who can make you 150k is a rookie.

What it boils down to is at the start of the season we have about 9M to fill 23 spots. If the magic number means 500k. = 100 points (the magic number varies but it’s about that so let’s roll with it) then it stands to reason that a team at expected production should score 1800 points with some variation.

Rookies are typically priced between 20-40 ppg (100-200k) these players typically get to 60-80ppg and are making 1.5-4 points per dollar more then their starting price.

The game is set up that each spot on average has about 400k to spend. So if you pick 23 rookies you are flying in points per dollar but you have about 6M left over and that’s money wasted as it’s not points on field

From there swap in 2-4 captain options as their points count for double. You can afford to be less efficient in points per dollar here as bulk points and reliability is king.

Should have about 4M left now. now do trade math aka how many premiums do I need to start with. (Assuming 2 trades for your average premium) Typically 10-12 in total.

Now find the cheapest players you believe will be keepers on their line. (95+ forwards, 105+ Def 110+ mids/rucks) Typically they will have been successful in the past and will be in the vast majority of teams. See Sam Flanders this year.

Then focus on premiums who will be keepers but are undervalued or have a favourable early season schedule.

Truth is people talk about premiums heaps but they are largely interchangeable and won’t make or sink your team.
Click to expand...
This is so eloquently outlined, but the exact approach I take. Takes the risk out of it as well - cold, hard logic.
 
My team looks terrible if I don’t nail my midpricers but I’m committed to keeping over 500k in the bank and picking a few PODs. Hopefully I can at least be semi competitive early but if not I may just take most of the season off.

Anyway, good to see how a lot of teams are shaping up. We are at about the midpoint of the offseason and it will be Feb and then March before we know it! Can’t wait

Happy holidays to all. Hope you can do something that brings you joy. :)
 
jdstorm said:
There is an easy theoretical answer to these questions. (Although It these three phrases.

1. Maximise points on field.
2 rookies determine structure
3. Any player who can make you 150k is a rookie.

What it boils down to is at the start of the season we have about 9M to fill 23 spots. If the magic number means 500k. = 100 points (the magic number varies but it’s about that so let’s roll with it) then it stands to reason that a team at expected production should score 1800 points with some variation.

Rookies are typically priced between 20-40 ppg (100-200k) these players typically get to 60-80ppg and are making 1.5-4 points per dollar more then their starting price.

The game is set up that each spot on average has about 400k to spend. So if you pick 23 rookies you are flying in points per dollar but you have about 6M left over and that’s money wasted as it’s not points on field

From there swap in 2-4 captain options as their points count for double. You can afford to be less efficient in points per dollar here as bulk points and reliability is king.

Should have about 4M left now. now do trade math aka how many premiums do I need to start with. (Assuming 2 trades for your average premium) Typically 10-12 in total.

Now find the cheapest players you believe will be keepers on their line. (95+ forwards, 105+ Def 110+ mids/rucks) Typically they will have been successful in the past and will be in the vast majority of teams. See Sam Flanders this year.

Then focus on premiums who will be keepers but are undervalued or have a favourable early season schedule.

Truth is people talk about premiums heaps but they are largely interchangeable and won’t make or sink your team.
Click to expand...
Hey jdstorm

Did you go through my post history and cut and paste something similar or edited from one of my pre-season rants.

I guess mimicry is the highest form of compliments so thankyou.

My post was a response to another line of thought.

But thanks for explaining the miniature of how to play SuperCoach.
 
dabombers said:
Hey jdstorm

Did you go through my post history and cut and paste something similar or edited from one of my pre-season rants.

I guess mimicry is the highest form of compliments so thankyou.

My post was a response to another line of thought.

But thanks for explaining the miniature of how to play SuperCoach.
Click to expand...

Didn’t cut and paste anyones post history not my style.

Suppose when there’s only one right answer any good player will be saying the same thing.

Didn’t mean to come across as rude. Wasn’t my intention.

Hope you’re having a great day.
 

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Nelso said:
Absolute lock to play.

Port don't have many small forwards.

It has finally sunk with Stephenson that he was wasting his talent. Has been training his arse off during preseason, doing extra sessions, always one of the first to arrive and one of the last to leave.
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Willie replacement 🤔
 

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Nelso said:
It has finally sunk with Stephenson that he was wasting his talent.
Click to expand...
You'd hope it's the same with JUH. Both are in the last chance saloon. If they don't step up now will never get another opportunity. Plenty of talent there, don't waste it. Have got JUH in my first draft. See how it plays out. When will Stephenson be added to SC?
 
Obese Arachnid said:
No Sheeze?

What am I missing he's my fwd no1 lock.

I mean fwd available, ok price & is bye friendly.
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Definitely considering him but my strategy means I’m not taking many top priced players. Bye friendly may be the selling point to be honest
 
Version 3. Had some time to do deep analysis on fixtures & players. This is my data driven team. Happy to answer why I picked certain players or left others out (e.g Brayshaw vs Serong). Ignore the rookies as they are all placeholder.

Won't do any other changes to this team until the preseason games or injury news comes out.

1766726453925.png
 
Petrify said:
Version 3. Had some time to do deep analysis on fixtures & players. This is my data driven team. Happy to answer why I picked certain players or left others out (e.g Brayshaw vs Serong). Ignore the rookies as they are all placeholder.

Won't do any other changes to this team until the preseason games or injury news comes out.

View attachment 2501732
Click to expand...
Rowell and Anderson affected by Petracca maybe?
Otherwise solid team. Love it.
 
Petrify said:
Version 3. Had some time to do deep analysis on fixtures & players. This is my data driven team. Happy to answer why I picked certain players or left others out (e.g Brayshaw vs Serong). Ignore the rookies as they are all placeholder.

Won't do any other changes to this team until the preseason games or injury news comes out.

View attachment 2501732
Click to expand...
Can't see the point of Ridley, he's already done a hammy in preseason.

Isn't Bryan unlikely for R1?

Is Bruhn even in Geelong's best team?
 

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