Pauline Hanson - One Nation Party

[Ghost Patrol]

 

[GrayRanga]

One Nation popularity amongst conservative voters is a result of the Liberal Party no longer representing them, they have moved too far to the centre and are no longer seen as an alternative to the Labor/Green alignment. If One Nation teamed up with the Nationals they could become a real force and a realistic chance of challenging for power.

The existance and rise of the Teals and the decrease in the Primary vote of the Liberal Party suggests that the movement of the Liberals further Right is counter productive.

There are 150 seats in the HoR; Labor has 94, the Coalition has 42 (18 Lib, 8 Nats and 16 LNP), Independents have 10 and the minor parties have 4 of which One Nation has 1

So the Nats, LNP and One Nation have a combined total of 25 seats, which of the remaining 125 seats are going to suddenly vote Nats/LNP/ON? especially in urban os city seats?

Make it simpler where are the extra 51 seats for One Nation to become a player in a Coalition Government going to come from? Urban and city seats?

If your'e going to bait us all by making outrageous claims, at least base them on reality rather then your fevered dreams

 

[Mofra]

if this poll boost is real and continues to build - surely its electoral impact/threat rests squarely at the feet of the gnats

to-wit .... im surprised media pundits havent started asking serious questions of littleproud - serious questions

Independants and (at least in NSW) the SFF are enough of a threat to the Nats.

I'm not sure ON are a force in rural seats, they're getting a bounce based on grievence politics but who knows if that will keep them in the 20% of primary vote range.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I dont think they could win Government at the next election, but a Nats/ON alignment would likely be enough to become the official opposition.

Why would the Nationals want to do that? How does it benefit them?

The only benefit would be aligning themselves with a party that could deliver more metro seats than the Libs are currently. One Nation has zero chance of doing that.

I'd suggest a lot of Nats seem quite satisfied being in their ultra-safe seats and permanent opposition, with little - if any - motivation to change the current set-up.

 

[The Punter]

For the record, the Liberal Party, the National Party and Queensland's LNP are not three separate parties. The LNP is federally part of the Liberal Party of Australia, elects delegates to its Federal Council, with an arrangement where certain LNP Federal MPs sit in the Nationals Party Room, not unalike (before Price) how NT's Country Liberal Party MPs sat in the Nationals Party Room.

To say they are three separate parties is misleading in the same way saying St Kilda played in three grand finals in 2009-2010 and won none of them is misleading (only two premierships were on offer in those two years).

 

[Home Alone]

In this alternate universe where One Nation is the party in government, the Cabinet positions would make the Trump appointments look over qualified!

 

[GrayRanga]

For the record, the Liberal Party, the National Party and Queensland's LNP are not three separate parties. The LNP is federally part of the Liberal Party of Australia, elects delegates to its Federal Council, with an arrangement where certain LNP Federal MPs sit in the Nationals Party Room, not unalike (before Price) how NT's Country Liberal Party MPs sat in the Nationals Party Room.

To say they are three separate parties is misleading in the same way saying St Kilda played in three grand finals in 2009-2010 and won none of them is misleading (only two premierships were on offer in those two years).

Sorry, in my mind i lump them all together as the Coalition and for the sake of the discussion, I was treating the LNP as more closely alighed to the Nats and therefore more in line with the poster's claim that ths ONists and the Nats would join forces to conquer Canberra

The poster hasn't come back to fill us all in hoe the Nats and ON are going to form a Ultra Right Wing Govenment in two years time

 

[The Punter]

Sorry, in my mind i lump them all together as the Coalition and for the sake of the discussion, I was treating the LNP as more closely alighed to the Nats and therefore more in line with the poster's claim that ths ONists and the Nats would join forces to conquer Canberra

The poster hasn't come back to fill us all in hoe the Nats and ON are going to form a Ultra Right Wing Govenment in two years time

I think he walked it back to "could be the official opposition".

 

[nut]

People used to say the same thing about The Donald.

I’ve got more faith in our population than the US..

 

[Festerz]

Listening to ABC last night and a pollster described provided this assessment of the heartland of One Nation voters

- mostly older (aged 55+);

- mostly living in non-inner metropolitan and regional Australia;

- mostly without a university education;

- mostly men.

This demographic grouping would previously been seen as LNP Coalition voters but are now shifting to One Nation in recent polling are the same as described above.

i.e. the shift to One Nation is strongest among over 55’s, non-university degree holders and rural/regional voters.

An analysis of the May 2025 election results and subsequent polling shows the cohort has shifted substantially from supporting the Coalition to One Nation. That shift in mid 2025 was around 1 in 3.

Among 2025 Labor voters there is only a marginal attrition to One Nation of about 1 in 20. However the same demographic trends as 2025 Coalition voters applies. Among 2025 Labor voters which are over 55’s, non-university degree holders and in rural/regional areas, the shift is 1 in 10.

This assessment is backed up by Demos polling here:

Who are the Voters Swinging to One Nation? - DemosAU

DemosAU's Federal MRP Model, released earlier this week, projects One Nation would win 12 seats (based on the model's central forecast), if the results of our

demosau.com

 

[Festerz]

I’ve got more faith in our population than the US..

I've got substantially more faith in the Australian Federal and State Electoral system (especially wrt compulsory voting, the 2PP system for the House of Representatives - the house of government - and an independent electoral commission) than the US Federal and State electoral processes.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

Suppose we had a future where the Liberals ceased to exist and the Teals coalesced into a Party while Labor also continued to shed votes to Independents. Something like this (Primary voting intention)...



This electoral split would look more like what we see in many European countries with a larger range of meaningful parties "in the game".

Obviously we have a major difference in compulsory preferential voting, but the preference flows in such an environment could be fascinating. As others have said, still hard to see ON getting enough Lower house seats to make a difference. Unless Teals shared preferences with the other Right wing parties which would surely be destructive to their own primary vote, even if they only did it in selected seats.

 

[RedStarUncle]

Listening to ABC last night and a pollster described provided this assessment of the heartland of One Nation voters

- mostly older (aged 55+);

- mostly living in non-inner metropolitan and regional Australia;

- mostly without a university education;

- mostly men.

This demographic grouping would previously been seen as LNP Coalition voters but are now shifting to One Nation in recent polling are the same as described above.

i.e. the shift to One Nation is strongest among over 55’s, non-university degree holders and rural/regional voters.

An analysis of the May 2025 election results and subsequent polling shows the cohort has shifted substantially from supporting the Coalition to One Nation. That shift in mid 2025 was around 1 in 3.

Among 2025 Labor voters there is only a marginal attrition to One Nation of about 1 in 20. However the same demographic trends as 2025 Coalition voters applies. Among 2025 Labor voters which are over 55’s, non-university degree holders and in rural/regional areas, the shift is 1 in 10.

This assessment is backed up by Demos polling here:

Who are the Voters Swinging to One Nation? - DemosAU

DemosAU's Federal MRP Model, released earlier this week, projects One Nation would win 12 seats (based on the model's central forecast), if the results of our

demosau.com

There's a sense that the demographic switching to PHON are the same demographic that globally is moving towards the far right... older GenX, male, no tertiary education, living in semi-rural and rural areas.

In America and the UK as examples... this demographic might've been one that historically would've voted for the Democrats or UK Labour. So seeing them swing not just right but far right is potentially a big impact.

But in Australia... I really wonder if this demographic, 25-30 years ago... weren't already won over by John Howard in his appeal to the "Aussie battler". Which is reflected in the numbers showing PHON's growth coincides directly with an LNP decline with a bit of fuzziness around the edge.




The normal sentiment for this demographic seems to be that "the system has been rigged against them" for so long regardless of who has been in power, that now that they're approaching retirement with no significant nest egg and no-one really looking out for their interests... they're inherently turning to "anyone else". Howard was just ahead of his time in getting this demographic to look to the right while the ring-wing milks them for the neolib economic ideal...

 

[Harro59]

In this alternate universe where One Nation is the party in government, the Cabinet positions would make the Trump appointments look over qualified!

It would be crazy. I just look at the candidate they ran in a seat in Adelaide's North East, Makin I think it was. He is an absolute nutter, get off my yard type crazy and waving his gun around.

I reckon he could fill foreign affairs well

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Imagine Pauline in the debates…. lmfao

Farage is the UK's version of Pauline. He's a much more scarier proposition because he's got a modicum of intelligence and can articulate a position and why. He knows exactly why he thinks the way he does where as Hanson is all vibes and feelings uneducated drivel.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

One Nation popularity amongst conservative voters is a result of the Liberal Party no longer representing them, they have moved too far to the centre and are no longer seen as an alternative to the Labor/Green alignment. If One Nation teamed up with the Nationals they could become a real force and a realistic chance of challenging for power.

What are some examples of the Liberals moving too far to the centre, in your mind? I would have thought that if the Liberals had moved too close to the centre, then the teals wouldn't exist, they'd be right at home in that kind of Liberal Party.

I reckon One Nation's recent polling gains aren't so much about left or right, they're about people feeling dissatisfied with the political establishment in general for not solving societal problems. At least Labor voters can feel like they've empowered a government with the chance to make things better, but LNP voters don't even have that, which is one reason why the LNP are bleeding vote share faster.

For those who feel let down by establishment politics, what alternatives are there? Well, the left will try to explain how we've been failing to properly tax corporate profits and reinvest them in community services and public housing, but that's hard to understand and boring. Blaming everything on immigrants though, now that's simple and plays to people's emotions.

That's important to note. One Nation aren't doing anything new, they're repeating the exact same xenophobic talking points they always have. People are just more willing to embrace that xenophobia because they want simple solutions to inflation and housing and terrorism, and they've realised the LNP can't credibly offer them that anymore. There's only so much the LNP can talk tough on immigration before people realise they never actually cut it when they get into government.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Listening to ABC last night and a pollster described provided this assessment of the heartland of One Nation voters

- mostly older (aged 55+);

- mostly living in non-inner metropolitan and regional Australia;

- mostly without a university education;

- mostly men.

This demographic grouping would previously been seen as LNP Coalition voters but are now shifting to One Nation in recent polling are the same as described above.

i.e. the shift to One Nation is strongest among over 55’s, non-university degree holders and rural/regional voters.

An analysis of the May 2025 election results and subsequent polling shows the cohort has shifted substantially from supporting the Coalition to One Nation. That shift in mid 2025 was around 1 in 3.

Among 2025 Labor voters there is only a marginal attrition to One Nation of about 1 in 20. However the same demographic trends as 2025 Coalition voters applies. Among 2025 Labor voters which are over 55’s, non-university degree holders and in rural/regional areas, the shift is 1 in 10.

This assessment is backed up by Demos polling here:

Who are the Voters Swinging to One Nation? - DemosAU

DemosAU's Federal MRP Model, released earlier this week, projects One Nation would win 12 seats (based on the model's central forecast), if the results of our

demosau.com

So angry/frustrated, uneducated racists looking for someone to blame for their anger/frustration without the capacity to understand or articulate their anger/frustration and so jump on board the people telling them its all the transgender immigrants fault.

 

[Expensive_Horse5538]

One Nation, despite crying out on how free speech is always being cancelled, ironically voted for a ban on burning the Australian Flag:

As it happened: Firearm and hate crime laws pass Senate as parliament recalled in response to Bondi attack

Parliament returned two weeks early to urgently debate new laws after the Bondi shooting. Look back on our live coverage as firearm and hate crime legislation passed both houses.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Present Not Past]

Farage is the UK's version of Pauline. He's a much more scarier proposition because he's got a modicum of intelligence and can articulate a position and why. He knows exactly why he thinks the way he does where as Hanson is all vibes and feelings uneducated drivel.

Has Farage actually gone to prison though?
Pauline's been convicted and been sent to serve time in prison in Australia.
Pauline has the victim mentality in the bag.

 

[Daka]

One Nation popularity amongst conservative voters is a result of the Liberal Party no longer representing them, they have moved too far to the centre and are no longer seen as an alternative to the Labor/Green alignment. If One Nation teamed up with the Nationals they could become a real force and a realistic chance of challenging for power.

Labor and Greens are nothing alike anymore proof of it that the Greens voted against the Hate bill.

Albanese has never liked the Greens. in the past Labor governments, you could say they were closer in ideology.
When Bob Brown was leader, they were more the environment and planting trees before they were taken over by woke extremist.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Has Farage actually gone to prison though?
Pauline's been convicted and been sent to serve time in prison in Australia.
Pauline has the victim mentality in the bag.

He hasn't but everything else about both of them is the same

 

[Gough]

He hasn't but everything else about both of them is the same

Farage has used his time in politics to learn how to make it work for him, Hanson barely held off the Legalise Weed Party to get reelected last time she offered herself up as a candidate.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

So angry/frustrated, uneducated racists looking for someone to blame for their anger/frustration without the capacity to understand or articulate their anger/frustration and so jump on board the people telling them its all the transgender immigrants fault.

Its been the case for decades with these people, that's why "everything is woke" too apparently. Can't treat everybody the same because we are not the same according to them so why should they get pulled up on being bigoted racist degenerates? We are the problem because we accept diversity not them. The good old days were better. This is pretty much every anti Labor/Greens page on FB. The other hilarious statement that gets said all the time is " Pauline speaks for the majority!!" .

 

[Johnny Bananas]

When Bob Brown was leader, they were more the environment and planting trees before they were taken over by woke extremist.

This is complete nonsense and Bob himself has said so.

Labor says the Greens aren’t Bob Brown’s party any more. He disagrees

“[The Greens] don’t talk about the environment any more,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says. “They talk about some extreme agenda.”

www.smh.com.au

https://archive.md/ThJa6

Remember Bob led protests against the Iraq War and was a very vocal advocate for same-sex marriage (unlike that coward Penny Wong) and more humane treatment of refugees. What do those things have to do with the environment? The passage of history has showed them to be correct stances to take, but at the time I'm sure many people called it extremist and "political correctness gone mad" or whatever buzzword they had back then that they've replaced with "woke".

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Why would the Nationals want to do that? How does it benefit them?

The only benefit would be aligning themselves with a party that could deliver more metro seats than the Libs are currently. One Nation has zero chance of doing that.

I'd suggest a lot of Nats seem quite satisfied being in their ultra-safe seats and permanent opposition, with little - if any - motivation to change the current set-up.

Because their members who are traditionally conservative and lean far right would be more aligned with ON than the current Libs. You are correct that the Nats have a bunch of career pollies who are comfortable in safe seats and are unlikely to upset the status quo.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Listening to ABC last night and a pollster described provided this assessment of the heartland of One Nation voters

- mostly older (aged 55+);

- mostly living in non-inner metropolitan and regional Australia;

- mostly without a university education;

- mostly men.

This demographic grouping would previously been seen as LNP Coalition voters but are now shifting to One Nation in recent polling are the same as described above.

i.e. the shift to One Nation is strongest among over 55’s, non-university degree holders and rural/regional voters.

An analysis of the May 2025 election results and subsequent polling shows the cohort has shifted substantially from supporting the Coalition to One Nation. That shift in mid 2025 was around 1 in 3.

Among 2025 Labor voters there is only a marginal attrition to One Nation of about 1 in 20. However the same demographic trends as 2025 Coalition voters applies. Among 2025 Labor voters which are over 55’s, non-university degree holders and in rural/regional areas, the shift is 1 in 10.

This assessment is backed up by Demos polling here:

Who are the Voters Swinging to One Nation? - DemosAU

DemosAU's Federal MRP Model, released earlier this week, projects One Nation would win 12 seats (based on the model's central forecast), if the results of our

demosau.com

And not surprising by the ABC that they would arrogantly try to dismiss those that are switching from LNP to ON as uneducated boomer buffoons... The same playbook was rolled out by CNN and the leftist media in the US to discredit the MAGA movement.