Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

Chol 1.8 goals from 24 games
Waterman 2.1 goals from 8 games.

It’s hardly an emphatic difference.

Over 20% more goals per game while playing in a much shitter team is pretty emphatic.

I’m not really sure why you plucked out this comparison because Chol and Waterman are not very similar types.

You're right. The main difference being that Waterman is a really good player while Chol isn't.

There are also other forward lines like the Bulldogs, Cats and Adelaide where Waterman would be in the mix, but not a walk-up start.

He has kicked more goals per game over the last 2 years than any Adelaide or Bulldogs player. But why would they want him?

And you're right geelong would much prefer turn to Rhys Stanley as a key position forward when Neale is getting beaten like they did on GF day rather than have an AA full forward

 

[ReturningHawk]

Over 20% more goals per game while playing in a much shitter team is pretty emphatic.

How do you work that out. Chol averages more goals per game. You're on the Shueygod bs "oh but look between rounds 6-13 in 2024 Waterman had a higher player rating".

You're right. The main difference being that Waterman is a really good player while Chol isn't.

A worse forward, who averages more goals per game.

He has kicked more goals per game over the last 2 years than any Adelaide or Bulldogs player. But why would they want him?

Darcy, Naughton, Walker, Thilthorpe. You’re not picking Waterman over them surely.

And you're right geelong would much prefer turn to Rhys Stanley as a key position forward when Neale is getting beaten like they did on GF day rather than have an AA full forward

Neale out for Waterman?

You could argue in Jake’s favour for some of these comparisons. Waterman would get a game for most sides, it’s just not clear cut like it is with Vlastuin.

 

[tiger_tough]

Over 20% more goals per game while playing in a much shitter team is pretty emphatic.

Maths isn't a strength of yours huh?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Maths isn't a strength of yours huh?

Seems like it's more of a strength of mine than yours. I'll take this slow. Reckon you can keep up?

Waterman - 17 goals in 8 games at 2.125 per game.
Chol - 42 goals in 24 games at 1.75 per game.

2.125 is 21.4% higher than 1.75 which last time I checked is greater than 20%.

Did you follow that? Or do you need me to go slower and include some pretty pictures?

 

[ReturningHawk]

Seems like it's more of a strength of mine than yours. I'll take this slow. Reckon you can keep up?

Waterman - 21 goals in 8 games at 2.125 per game.
Chol - 42 goals in 24 games at 1.75 per game.

2.125 is 21.4% higher than 1.75 which last time I checked is greater than 20%.

Did you follow that? Or do you need me to go slower and include some pretty pictures?

Truly it’s a remarkable story. I liked the part where Jake Waterman kicked 21 goals last year. A fantastic bit of creativity, considering he kicked 17.

Why are you here doing maths that are beyond you when the argument is so obscure? It’s about whether Jake Waterman would be a best 23 at every club, our verdict was “probably, but debatable”. Do you really need to expend this much energy arguing against that?

 

[Footy Smarts]

**** me. Can neither of you 2 do basic division?

2.125/1.75 = 1.214 (ie greater than 20% more). It's really not that hard.

But maybe it is too hard for people suggesting a reigning AA would be stuck playing VFL. And behind Mabior Chol

18

Mabior Chol

Age

29

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.5

2star

K

5.3

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.3

3star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

of all people

 

[ReturningHawk]

**** me. Can neither of you 2 do basic division?

2.125/1.75 = 1.214 (ie greater than 20% more). It's really not that hard.

But maybe it is too hard for people suggesting a reigning AA would be stuck playing VFL. And behind Mabior Chol of all people

Yeah that’s the problem. Division.

Waterman is not a “reigning AA”, whatever that is. He’s a good AFL player who averages slightly less goals over his career than Chol, who is also a good player.

I don’t think he’d be stuck behind Chol if he came to Hawthorn anyway, this comparison is your suggestion. Gunston is the like-for-like player at Hawthorn.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Waterman is not a “reigning AA”, whatever that is.

My friend we were talking about the 2025 afl season. You were the one who brought it up with these stats:

Chol 1.8 goals from 24 games
Waterman 2.1 goals from 8 games.

You've failed with basic maths and now basic English. Let me help:

"Reigning, the present participle of "reign," refers to currently exercising sovereign power as a monarch or, more commonly, holding a current title as champion in a competition."

Take a look who was the AA forward pocket in 2024 which makes him a reigning AA in 2025.

With that I'm going to leave you to it.

 

[tiger_tough]

Over 20% more goals per game while playing in a much shitter team is pretty emphatic.



You're right. The main difference being that Waterman is a really good player while Chol isn't.



He has kicked more goals per game over the last 2 years than any Adelaide or Bulldogs player. But why would they want him?

And you're right geelong would much prefer turn to Rhys Stanley as a key position forward when Neale is getting beaten like they did on GF day rather than have an AA full forward

Seems like it's more of a strength of mine than yours. I'll take this slow. Reckon you can keep up?

Waterman - 17 goals in 8 games at 2.125 per game.
Chol - 42 goals in 24 games at 1.75 per game.

2.125 is 21.4% higher than 1.75 which last time I checked is greater than 20%.

Did you follow that? Or do you need me to go slower and include some pretty pictures?

**** me. Can neither of you 2 do basic division?

2.125/1.75 = 1.214 (ie greater than 20% more). It's really not that hard.

But maybe it is too hard for people suggesting a reigning AA would be stuck playing VFL. And behind Mabior Chol of all people

FMD 1.8 + 20% = 2.16.
2.1 is less than 20% more than 1.8

Do you understand or do you need a picture?

 

[dean33]

Haven't been here since December and saw the thread exploded from 55 pages to 129. Although it's drifted from the thread title to chol v waterman and maths lessons...

 

[tiger_tough]

Haven't been here since December and saw the thread exploded from 55 pages to 129. Although it's drifted from the thread title to chol v waterman and maths lessons...

I miss Brady Hough

 

[ShereKhan]

You said it on the Richmond board, quick search will tell you that.

That’s the best part it’s his vfl stats…

Makes it far worse for young Fawcett.

Luckily we also have 3 Richmond KPF’s that will be 20 the majority of this season.

Do you expect their stats to compare favourably to Williams 2024 given he’s shown little?


The Bolton trade happened two days later.

You guys must truly believe Hartley is absolutely incompetent if he couldn’t arrange a 3 way trade where they ended up essentially getting pick 3 for 11 and Baker.

That’s more alarming than anything.

Why would the eagles not have waited if they were guaranteed a better return?

Sims + Faull + Trainor (Or Hotton + Faull if we want to really simplify it) vs Jagga + extras should be interesting for Richmond fans in future years.

Given they seem to rate Jagga so high can imagine they’re very frustrated by this realisation of Hartleys incompetence.

This is where the Eagles struggle. Falling asleep at the wheel is what lost your club pick #3 in the first place. But your assertion is Richmond should've traded a pick they didn't have and had no guarantee they'd get along with Baker for #3. You sound stupider every time you double down on that one, so I'll move on and let you continue digging.

And I'm really confused as to why you keep coming back to Williams performances as a 20yo back in 2023..?? And why you're comparing him to Richmond's 4th most promising KPF option who has played 1 x game.

Williams performances as a 22yo KPF in his 4th season in 2025 were pretty average. If he reproduces any worse in 2026 he'll likely be delisted at the end of the season.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

And Waterman is a better KPF than anything the Tigers have up forward.

If we are talking facts.

Shanahan is better then the two they took before him too

Not a single AFL mind wouldn't have Shanahan as better than Armstrong and Faull on talent

Infact we could even have a bet with these Tigers fans . Who kicks more goals this year . Shanahan or Faull/Armstrong combined..

Who is up for it ?

 

[ShereKhan]

Missed where it was but whoever said Sheezel, Harley and Jagga would be an elite midfield… going 1 way sure, you’d be conceding more i50 per game than we already do. Oppo would quite genuine waltz out of the middle with consummate ease

This is absolutely ludicrous. Of course you'd love to have Reid, Sheezel and Jagga. If you need defensive midfield options you build around that with whomever you like. You know....like the Lions did getting Dunkley. Or the Tigers did with Lambert. Quality teams have 7-8 players in their midfield rotation, not 3.

What next, Tassie won't be happy if they get Naicos, W Ashcroft and H Reid as oh no...who is going to defend....FMD.

 

[ShereKhan]

Well that was a load of tripe to read.

How about we keep it really simple.

If Richmond wanted pick 3 it could have traded for it.

They would have finalised other trades first in order to land pick 3.

Richmond didn't bother. They were chasing multiple picks not pick 3.

In doing so they basically made the same decision the Eagles did. Multiple 1st rounders / players was a better result.

It really isn't hard to understand.

If Richmond wanted and valued pick 3 they could have traded for it. They didn't.

So all the Tigers posters who think they are being clever here. You aren't. Your club made the same call the Eagles did. They didn't rate pick 3 highly enough. So didn't trade for it.

haha..I've read the Eagles forum. You were ALL fuming when you lost pick #3. Fuming. Don't re-write history and act like losing pick #3 was part of the plan for the club. Your hand was forced because of the Hawks and Blues pick swap that caught you by surprise. It was not a decision you wanted to make, so let's not insult everyone's intelligence by pretending it was.

I can bring up the 200 x pages of Eagle forum vitriol and abuse for Clarke and his list mgt during trade period when you lost #3 in your pursuit of Baker if you wish?

 

[ShereKhan]

We were generationally shit before the 2024 draft, just so we're clear.

A combination of factors went into that but when you are in the bottom four for the third year in a row it is criminal to enter the draft at pick 16 just to get Liam Baker. No other club would do that trade, and trying to justify a pick swap from 15 to 16 and taking Tom Gross at 46 is embarrassing. Good drafting sure, but pick 46 is so valuable you could just ask a team to give it to you and they would.

Anyway our list right now is fine for what it is. People forgot quickly that in 2024 we were actually OK, for a bit. Not great but most teams that are 3-7 77% don't get talked about as generationally bad. Take out Yeo, Waterman, Allen, McGovern and you see how thin that team was. 2024 was a step forward then 2025 a step backwards in terms of performance. Some of the teams we featured towards the end of the year aren't beating anyone. Duggan (7th) and Cripps (10th) are the only players from 2018 that featured in last year's B&F that are on the list. 5 of the top 10 are young players which is where we need to be. Yeo is back but who knows how much he plays. Kelly is still there but was ordinary last year. Sink or swim without Gov, TB, Allen, Ryan, Darling etc. We will probably still stink but chalk and cheese to fielding O'Neill and Foley and Langdon and hoping that the $5m worth of stars you have sitting in the box each week come back. The good thing about bringing in a pick 1 like Duursma is that he's joining a list with a 39 game Harley Reid and a 34 game Elijah Hewett and the likes of Baker and Graham who actually play plus Yeo and Kelly who are older and can be impact players instead of coming in as a great white hope.

Yes, well summarised.

You've finished bottom-3 4 x years in a row. You also got pick-2 for Oscar Allen. You traded out your best player in Barrass.
And after all that you've had just 4 x top-10 picks in the last 4-years.

It might all work out OK - but it hasn't been a masterclass in list management given history tells you how much better top-10 picks are than players taken later in the draft.

 

[ShereKhan]

Jagga had a whole year out of high school his draft year, is an absolute professional and still couldn’t put on size. He’s now spent a year out with injury, and still looks like a twig.

Just doesn’t seem to have the frame for it.

He’s also a worse kick than the other two, which is the biggest issue. I think his best role is in the defensively unaccountable accumulator role ala Daicos/Sheezel (or likely NWM) this year, but right now he’s nowhere near damaging enough to justify it and it’s not something you typically get much better at.

Did you not see any footage of Jagga as an underager? Then in his first VFL game for Richmond he had about 30 disposals and 8 clearances. His next VFL game he had 24. But his best role is off half-back....WTF are you talking about Shuey? You've lost the plot.

 

[tiger_tough]

Shanahan is better then the two they took before him too

Not a single AFL mind wouldn't have Shanahan as better than Armstrong and Faull on talent

Infact we could even have a bet with these Tigers fans . Who kicks more goals this year . Shanahan or Faull/Armstrong combined..

Who is up for it ?

Pretty stupid statement considering we took both of them ahead of Shanahan, so obviously there are some AFL minds that did/would. You're obviously also not aware that Swans tried to trade up with us to take Faull. So that's another 'AFL mind' or two (or three) there.

Faull had no pre-season last year and an interrupted one this year. Armstrong missed half the season injured. Both showed great signs, but I'm not sure that they'll both play together a lot this year if Lynch stays fit as he is a lock and we'll need a second ruck, which those guys can't play at this stage.

I think we'll see Lynch, Lefau + one of Faull, Armstrong and Fawcett most weeks. If Lefau doesn't play Fawcett is most likely to play 2nd ruck. Whereas Shanahan is all but guaranteed a game every week at the eagles so I wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan plays just as many games as Armstrong/Faull combined and therefor kick similar amount of goals. I could see Armstrong kicking more just on his own TBH, wouldn't surprise me at all. Faull will be a slower burn.

Long term who knows? But both fan bases would be happy at this stage, no need to turn it into a pissing contest just yet.

 

[ShereKhan]

Pretty stupid statement considering we took both of them ahead of Shanahan, so obviously there are some AFL minds that did/would. You're obviously also not aware that Swans tried to trade up with us to take Faull. So that's another 'AFL mind' or two (or three) there.

Faull had no pre-season last year and an interrupted one this year. Armstrong missed half the season injured. Both showed great signs, but I'm not sure that they'll both play together a lot this year if Lynch stays fit as he is a lock and we'll need a second ruck, which those guys can't play at this stage.

I think we'll see Lynch, Lefau + one of Faull, Armstrong and Fawcett most weeks. If Lefau doesn't play Fawcett is most likely to play 2nd ruck. Whereas Shanahan is all but guaranteed a game every week at the eagles so I wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan plays just as many games as Armstrong/Faull combined and therefor kick similar amount of goals. I could see Armstrong kicking more just on his own TBH, wouldn't surprise me at all. Faull will be a slower burn.

Long term who knows? But both fan bases would be happy at this stage, no need to turn it into a pissing contest just yet.

Did you not see that Shanahan kicked 12-goals in 9 games? He's already locked in by Eagles fans as a superstar and the best KPF of the last 2 drafts based on those 9 games. No more 'evidence' needed.

 

[bzparkes]

Did you not see that Shanahan kicked 12-goals in 9 games? He's already locked in by Eagles fans as a superstar and the best KPF of the last 2 drafts based on those 9 games. No more 'evidence' needed.

Yep, already kicked more goals in 9 games in year one than JK did in his first 2 seasons over 22 games.

 

[tiger_tough]

Yep, already kicked more goals in 9 games in year one than JK did in his first 2 seasons over 22 games.

Lets not get carried away just yet.

 

[tiger_tough]

Did you not see that Shanahan kicked 12-goals in 9 games? He's already locked in by Eagles fans as a superstar and the best KPF of the last 2 drafts based on those 9 games. No more 'evidence' needed.

He looks promising so far but there's a fair bit of carry on.

 

[Grrr]

Yep, already kicked more goals in 9 games in year one than JK did in his first 2 seasons over 22 games.

Shanahan looks classy and works closer to goal, Faull is a true CHF with great athleticism and super competitive. Both should be good value but I don't think goal kicking is the full measure of their worth.

Lynch will be at FF which makes it all the less likely Faull will kick a lot of goals, although he has no problem from outside 50m making the distance.

 

[txbyhull]

You traded out your best player in Barrass.

Pardon me? Barrass wasn’t even our best key defender

 

[bzparkes]

Lets not get carried away just yet.

What's the point of being down the bottom of the ladder if you can't carry on about how amazing your young players are/will be?