Prediction Best 22 R1 2019

[Ricmel]

B: Geary, Brown, Webster
HB: Roberton, Carlisle, Savage
C: Newnes, Steele, Hannebery
HF: Billings, Bruce, Gresham
F: Lonie, McCartin, Membrey

Foll: Longer, Steven, Ross
Int: Armitage, Dunstan, Kent, Sinclair

Emg: Acres, Long, Clark, McKenzie

It will be interesting to see how much deviation there is from this very predictable set up. I'm hoping to see serious change

This looks about right to me but would be very disappointing to see this team in Round 1.

If Armitage is still ahead of Coffield, that is a bad sign. Geary, Brown and Savage are about as ordinary a threesome in a back 6 as there is in the AFL. Longer at no1 in the ruck puts us behind the 8 ball right off the bat, the 6,6,6 rule is going to really focus the spotlight on the ruckman's performance at the centre bounce. It will be very hard to set up to counter a losing ruck. Dunstan, Kent, Sinclair - about as second rate 20 - 22 as there is in the AFL.

The good - That forward line, if all players play to potential, could do some serious damage. Roberton is a big "in" for us. There is some pace on the verges - Long and Clark. Personally I would switch their positions with Dunstan and Armitage but I suspect that would be too brave a move.

 

[Lenny2020]

Geary, Brown and Savage are about as ordinary a threesome in a back 6 as there is in the AFL.

One thing I will say is that the defence is at the mercy of the midfield and forwards in terms of rebounding and transition.

This is why I'm not as pessimistic as some at the thought of Savage et al being down back. Ratten and Lade will have had an enormous contribution to the way we will transition the ball out of defence to counter-attack and with some more innovative coaching, our midfield and forward line will structure up a lot better in front of the ball and we might have more targets to hit and space in which to work.

Also, Brown is suspended for R1 so he definitely won't be in the 22.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'd be very very surprised if Armo is in the team for R1.

 

[VDS66]

I'd be very very surprised if Armo is in the team for R1.

Be worth it for the melts...

 

[pebblesofsand]

This looks about right to me but would be very disappointing to see this team in Round 1.

If Armitage is still ahead of Coffield, that is a bad sign. Geary, Brown and Savage are about as ordinary a threesome in a back 6 as there is in the AFL. Longer at no1 in the ruck puts us behind the 8 ball right off the bat, the 6,6,6 rule is going to really focus the spotlight on the ruckman's performance at the centre bounce. It will be very hard to set up to counter a losing ruck. Dunstan, Kent, Sinclair - about as second rate 20 - 22 as there is in the AFL.

The good - That forward line, if all players play to potential, could do some serious damage. Roberton is a big "in" for us. There is some pace on the verges - Long and Clark. Personally I would switch their positions with Dunstan and Armitage but I suspect that would be too brave a move.

"If Armitage is still ahead of Coffield, that is a bad sign" - on the ball

"Geary, Brown and Savage are about as ordinary a threesome in a back 6 as there is in the AFL." - nonsense. Geary is just about the best small defensive player in the league, Brown is competent but I'll give you Savage.

"the 6,6,6 rule is going to really focus the spotlight on the ruckman's performance at the centre bounce" - the impact of the 6,6,6 rule is overated. The MCG is around 160 metres long so the players in the forward and back 50 have to run an extra 5 metres further to get to the centre bounce. Blink - done!!! Might see a marginal increase in a clean breaks from the centre at best.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

One thing I will say is that the defence is at the mercy of the midfield and forwards in terms of rebounding and transition.

This is why I'm not as pessimistic as some at the thought of Savage et al being down back. Ratten and Lade will have had an enormous contribution to the way we will transition the ball out of defence to counter-attack and with some more innovative coaching, our midfield and forward line will structure up a lot better in front of the ball and we might have more targets to hit and space in which to work.

Also, Brown is suspended for R1 so he definitely won't be in the 22.

Newnes 2018 was well down on his previous seasons. If he comes back to his previous form, i could see him getting a spot in the back line ahead of Savage, given that we'll have other options for his role in the midfield.
Brown is a dour stopper, but he was good enough at his job for Collingwood to select him nearly every time they could since he was nominated for rising star.
As soon as he's out of suspension he'll play and we'll be better for it.

.

 

[Ricmel]

the impact of the 6,6,6 rule is overated. The MCG is around 160 metres long so the players in the forward and back 50 have to run an extra 5 metres further to get to the centre bounce. Blink - done!!! Might see a marginal increase in a clean breaks from the centre at best.

The AFL match simulations is showing the 6,6,6 is having the most significant impact of all the rule changes. It is not because players have to run an extra 5 metres - you can't play 5/7 for example so any player coming hard off the line has to leave a player free. You can't have HBFs and HFFs drifting up to the wing and coming in from the side to cramp mids running wide - it fundamentally changes the nature of centre bounces and means first possession in the centre is likely to have far more width and depth available to them. You get badly beaten in the ruck and you are going to be faced with a lot of fast and deep entries into defensive 50 from the centre bounce - and you are not going to be able to load your backline to stop them.

 

[Ricmel]

"Geary is just about the best small defensive player in the league, Brown is competent but I'll give you Savage.

Well we would have to disagree on that. Geary makes too many mistakes to be a "best of" anything. Brown - good when you are playing a Tom Hawkins but there is only one Hawkins in the AFL. All the other big forwards are fast and mobile and have gone past Brown.

 

[t_94]

Full Strength

FB: Webster - Brown - Geary
HB: Coffield - Carlisle - Roberton
C: Billings - Steele - Hannebery
HF: Gresham - Bruce - Parker
FF: Long - McCartin - Membrey
F: Longer - Ross - Steven
Int: Acres - Clark - Newnes - Hind
Emerg: Marshall - Mckenzie - Sinclair - Kent

 

[Ricmel]

Full Strength

FB: Webster - Brown - Geary
HB: Coffield - Carlisle - Roberton
C: Billings - Steele - Hannebery
HF: Gresham - Bruce - Parker
FF: Long - McCartin - Membrey
F: Longer - Ross - Steven
Int: Acres - Clark - Newnes - Hind
Emerg: Marshall - Mckenzie - Sinclair - Kent

Lonie for Parker I think. Felt like things clicked for Lonie in the last 6 weeks of last year.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Well we would have to disagree on that. Geary makes too many mistakes to be a "best of" anything. Brown - good when you are playing a Tom Hawkins but there is only one Hawkins in the AFL. All the other big forwards are fast and mobile and have gone past Brown.

Jesus, Brown isn't that bad. He's played on Buddy before. Not always consistent.

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/111132/Nathan-BROWN
( old comments, but he hasn't gotten worse since moving to the Saints ).

Between him and Carlisle we'd find a decent matchup most games.

 

[Saintbloke]

Our fortunes this season are really going to revolve around the midfield stepping up- faster, better disposal, better corridor defensive efforts, more scoring etc. A second-rate midfield means a lot of pressure on a back line.

 

[SufferingS8INT]

Full Strength

FB: Webster - Brown - Geary
HB: Coffield - Carlisle - Roberton
C: Billings - Steele - Hannebery
HF: Gresham - Bruce - Parker
FF: Long - McCartin - Membrey
F: Longer - Ross - Steven
Int: Acres - Clark - Newnes - Hind
Emerg: Marshall - Mckenzie - Sinclair - Kent

This is spot on for me

Our biggest obstacle is Cho

 

[AirWinmar]

Full Strength

FB: Webster - Brown - Geary
HB: Coffield - Carlisle - Roberton
C: Billings - Steele - Hannebery
HF: Gresham - Bruce - Parker
FF: Long - McCartin - Membrey
F: Longer - Ross - Steven
Int: Acres - Clark - Newnes - Hind
Emerg: Marshall - Mckenzie - Sinclair - Kent

Certainly wouldnt complain with that. Id swap longs & gresh's positions

 

[cooperrules]

Looks good to go [emoji1303]

Fmd didnt look that big at training.

 

[Brains Trust66]

It’s been a few weeks since I last tried picking a side for round 1 so I will have another try . Assuming that King , Austin and Bytel will be out injured but everyone else will be right . Brown suspended too .

FB - Geary , Clavarino , Robbo
HB - Webster , Carlisle, Dmac
C - Billings , Ross , Hannebery
HF - Kent, Bruce , Steven
FF - Lonie , McCartin , Membrey
F - Longer , Steele , Gresham
Int - Acres , Hind , Clark , Parker
Emg - Pierce , Newnes , Savage , Long

Clavarino , Hannebery, Kent , Hind and Parker to debut for the club .

With Brown suspended and Austin injured means either Clavarino or Joyce to play fb or perhaps Battle ?
Robbo straight back in .
Kent , Hind and Parker to give us more speed .
Hannebery to give more experience.
Gresham and Steven to swap during the game .
If fit I would expect Longer to start as first ruck .
Lonie , Long , Parker or Young will probably depend on form of course.

 

[Brains Trust66]

Will be interesting to see by the end of the year or start of next year how they manage a forward line with McCartin , Bruce , Membrey , King , Lonie , Long , Kent , Coffield , Parker , Young , Gresham , Sinclair, Clark , Billings , Acres , Marshall, Paton , Newnes and perhaps Battle and Bytel .

That’s 20 guys attempting to fit in a possible 6 spots .
Obviously some players might play HB or Mid depending on form and injuries.

Going to be a make it or break it Year for some I would guess . Will also be interesting to see if they stick with Brown the whole year especially if Austin gets fit .

Not sure we will see much of Armo , Newnes , Sinclair , Rice , White , Phillips and Dunstan unless we have injuries. Although hopefully their form will make them push for selection .


Don’t Panic !!

 

[lewdogs]

Joyce is an interesting one. The Irish lads often take a bit of time. He had a taste last year and in my opinion, he didn't look miles off it. His kicking seemed an issue though.

Will be interesting to see how he goes this year as he obviously looks determined. If you think about a bloke like McKenna for the Bombers, he started off looking pretty far off but adapted to the game quickly. Wouldn't be surprised to see something similar with Joyce.

 

[RobbieMuir]

I know Joyce didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his two senior games last year, but in the games I saw him play at Sandy he looked good. I would describe him as a freak athlete for his size, with excellent speed, reflexes and agility. In the space of just 18 months he went from literally zero to mastering kicking and marking the oval ball.

He has since had another pre-season to hone his skills. The hardest part (especially for someone from the other side of the planet) is to learn how to read the play. If he can master that aspect of his game then I can see him becoming a very handy AFL player. I will certainly be watching him with great interest this year.

 

[cooperrules]

I know Joyce didn’t exactly set the world on fire in his two senior games last year, but in the games I saw him play at Sandy he looked good. I would describe him as a freak athlete for his size, with excellent speed, reflexes and agility. In the space of just 18 months he went from literally zero to mastering kicking and marking the oval ball.

He has since had another pre-season to hone his skills. The hardest part (especially for someone from the other side of the planet) is to learn how to read the play. If he can master that aspect of his game then I can see him becoming a very handy AFL player. I will certainly be watching him with great interest this year.

Excellent assesment. Could be anything really. Like 98% of our list. i remember a sandy game where he went back with the flight of the ball. Spoiled to the back and crashed through pack to get his own crumb. Looked as natural as any afl born player.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Will be interesting to see by the end of the year or start of next year how they manage a forward line with McCartin , Bruce , Membrey , King , Lonie , Long , Kent , Coffield , Parker , Young , Gresham , Sinclair, Clark , Billings , Acres , Marshall, Paton , Newnes and perhaps Battle and Bytel .

That’s 20 guys attempting to fit in a possible 6 spots .
Obviously some players might play HB or Mid depending on form and injuries.

Going to be a make it or break it Year for some I would guess . Will also be interesting to see if they stick with Brown the whole year especially if Austin gets fit .

Not sure we will see much of Armo , Newnes , Sinclair , Rice , White , Phillips and Dunstan unless we have injuries. Although hopefully their form will make them push for selection .


Don’t Panic !!

Players unlikely to be one of the 6 forwards, because they aren't forwards.
Coffield , Sinclair, Acres, Paton, Newnes, Bytel, Clark.

Players who have been forwards but probably won't be.
Gresham, Billings.

So small forwards from : Lonie, Long, Kent, Parker , Young. 3 to 4. Not too many when we consider their age and experience. Lonie and Kent the closest to proven ability.
Talls from Membrey, McCartin, Bruce, King, Marshall, Battle. 2 to 3.

At this point we don't have a glut, and all the better if Marshall can ruck and Battle can play back. I guess we can predict a trade in the future.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Acres and Newnes (who played almost exclusively forward for the last 2/3 or more of the season) spent more time forward than anywhere else last year, as did Hunter, and Sincs spent a good chunk of time there as well, and started his career there, so they would all well and truly be genuine options to spend time or play there. Especially with extra competition for the wings and middle.

 

[Brains Trust66]

Players unlikely to be one of the 6 forwards, because they aren't forwards.
Coffield , Sinclair, Acres, Paton, Newnes, Bytel, Clark.

Players who have been forwards but probably won't be.
Gresham, Billings.

So small forwards from : Lonie, Long, Kent, Parker , Young. 3 to 4. Not too many when we consider their age and experience. Lonie and Kent the closest to proven ability.
Talls from Membrey, McCartin, Bruce, King, Marshall, Battle. 2 to 3.

At this point we don't have a glut, and all the better if Marshall can ruck and Battle can play back. I guess we can predict a trade in the future.

Gresham and Billings have to play somewhere, if they go into midfield then where are the other mids going to play ? It’s easy to say they will be mids this season but then we have too many mids to fit into one side .

I can’t see where else Coffield, Sinclair, Paton , Newnes and Clark will play if not forward . There won’t be room for them in midfield and I don’t think they are defensive enough to play back . Coffield, Clark , Paton and Phillips might all one day become full time mids but they aren’t there yet . Bytel I really know little about .

Marshall is a handy player who might develop but at this stage he is not a ruckman so if he plays it has to be as a forward and second ruck . If Marshall plays then one of Bruce , Membrey and Paddy don’t .


If Membrey , Bruce and Paddy play forward then that means King , Marshall , and Battle will have to play for Sandy .
Battle might become a defender but Brown , Austin and Clavarino would probably be ahead of him just with their experience playing back .

Richo seems the like having 3 tall forwards so that means only 3 small ones . If Billings and Gresham aren’t in the midfield then they play forward which only leaves one spot for Lonie , Long , Parker , Kent and Young . This means no room for Coffield, Sinclair, Acres , Paton, Newnes , and Clark.

With Hannebery a mid , that leaves Ross , Steven , Dunstan , Armo, Steele , Hind , Phillips , and possibly Clark , Coffield , Kent , Acres , Paton , Sinclair , Newnes , Gresham and Billings as the other mids .

Hard to fit everyone in .


Don’t Panic !!

 

[VDS66]

You need at least 8 who can run through the middle.

It will all come down to rotations.

 

[aussierulesrules]

BT, any of Newnes, Coffield, or even Hunter could play on HB.

That's Coff's best position at the moment I'd say and maybe even Hunters as well.