AFL 2019 - AFL Round 1

[NonPhixion]

Running with this SGM for tomorrow night:
E.Curnow ATGS
Prestia O25.5
Martin 3+ goals @20

 

[the_big_sav]

Is this borne out by statistics or just a hunch of yours?

someone posted last year about the first few rounds and then showed the last couple of seasons its become more noticeable.

the main theory being teams are trying playing new tactics or more attacking being new season. teams get tired more in first few rounds. deflate if they start bad so score can blow out espicially round 1.

by rounds 4 or 5 teams might be 2 and 3 or 1 and 4 and start to tighten up. teams structures start to form espicially defensively.

not saying itll be 9 from 9 but yeh it does seem to go over more then not

 

[ET Sloane Home]

I've gone Richmond 3rd quarter -9.5 at $1.90

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Running with this SGM for tomorrow night:
E.Curnow ATGS
Prestia O25.5
Martin 3+ goals @20

Agreed on Curnow AGS.

Also on Curnow under 82.5 fantasy points - had 72 & 71 in two competitive JLT results, figure there could be a middle of sorts if he nets 15 and a goal or something like that.

 

[Unknown Identity]

Last 2 opening games of the year have gone 210+

Tigers/Blues opened at 185.5 and it's now 188.5.

Might be worth a tickle.

 

[jefffff34]

Trying something different this year... 1 main bet, followed by a SGM of mostly faves, followed by a speculative interest filler SGM.

Main bet (1 unit) - Cotchin under 23.5 possessions @ 1.80. Averaged 22 last year and only 19 in the last 10 rounds.

Fave multi. (0.25 units) - Richmond 1-39, over 187.5 pts, Riewoldt & Lynch 2+ goals, Butler and McKay ATG, E.Curnow, Murphy, Houli 20+ disposals, Martin 25+ disposals @ 42.50

Speculative multi (0.10 units) - Richmond 1-39, over 187.5 pts, McKay 2+ goals, McGovern, Edwards and Higgins ATG, Newman & Edwards 20+ disposals, Murphy & Prestia 25+ disposals @ 526

 

[the_chad]

1 unit K. Simpson >91.5 fantasy points @1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Averages 105 from 26 games at the MCG over the last 3 years and has gone 129, 126 and 118 in the round 1 matches vs. Tigers.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Multi for tomorrow night ($21.75):
Over 187.5: ($1.90) Rule changes will increase scoring IMO and the bookmakers are using mostly historical statistics.
Sam Walsh under 22.5 poss ($1.81): JLT/form hype is strong but this is best mid-pressure team in the league and its his first game.
Dusty over 27.5 poss ($1.91): Ave poss based on 2018 form, he's much better than that.
Cotch under 23.5 poss (23.5): agree with Hoggy above.
Jack Riewoldt, 3 or more goals ($1.53): price inflated due to Lynch's presence and he's underdone.

 

[jack 23]

BetEasys double your winnings promo - read the fine print.
Use this promo and another bookie to lock in some small guarantee profits on each game, some matches paying out better than others. The risk is a draw but you could still bet this out and make profit. only small ($20 a game etc.) but money's money.
If you the second bookie has its own promo such as early payout, even better chances of winning more....
Dockers v Roos pays out the best.

 

[the_chad]

1 unit E. Curnow >80.5 fantasy points @1.9 (Pointsbet)

Line far too low for him, even if he is being phased out of the middle

There's also a 2 disposal middle for Curnow between pointsbet and sportsbet

0.5 units Walsh <23.5 disposals @1.85 (Pointsbet)

 

[Browney2006]

So with the new kick in rule, im sure the "kick in" player will be open to a lot more disposals. Havent done my research on the markets but im sure there will be some value in there.

 

[Ohh Ok]

(2.5u) Rich/Mel/Ade @ $2

(2.5u) Richmond -9.5 (4th qtr) @ $1.88

(2.5u) Adelaide -19.5 @ $1.91

(1u) Cotchin over 87.5 fantasy (SB) @ 1.87

(2u) Cripps more disposals than Dusty (BE) @ $1,62

Was interested to see if there was a fantasy line set for Andrew Phillips.. not yet anyways..

 

[AFDogs]

Richmond 40-59
Gibbons 2 goals
Newman 20 touches

$5 with a payout of $345

 

[AFDogs]

Multi for tomorrow night ($21.75):
Over 187.5: ($1.90) Rule changes will increase scoring IMO and the bookmakers are using mostly historical statistics.
Sam Walsh under 22.5 poss ($1.81): JLT/form hype is strong but this is best mid-pressure team in the league and its his first game.
Dusty over 27.5 poss ($1.91): Ave poss based on 2018 form, he's much better than that.
Cotch under 23.5 poss (23.5): agree with Hoggy above.
Jack Riewoldt, 3 or more goals ($1.53): price inflated due to Lynch's presence and he's underdone.

Dusty is playing forward I don't reckon he will get 28. I'd be going unders for him.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Interesting, every line has moved up since Monday when I threw a small hail mary on every game going over

 

[ShiftyNiftyNev]

Dusty is playing forward I don't reckon he will get 28. I'd be going unders for him.

Is that you Dimma?

 

[puntingdude22]

Mav Weller to kick 3+ goals @ 13.00
worth a punt or not?

 

[iluvparis]

Mav Weller to kick 3+ goals @ 13.00
worth a punt or not?

How many forwards are they playing?! I've seen people talk up Dusty, Riewoldt, Lynch, Rioli and Balta all playing forward - they can't all kick 3 (inb4 its Carlton so yes they can)

 

[AFDogs]

Mav Weller to kick 3+ goals @ 13.00
worth a punt or not?

Has he ever kicked 3 in a game before? I doubt it.

I wouldn't be putting big money on that. Maybe a $5.

 

[megatiger]

Mav Weller to kick 3+ goals @ 13.00
worth a punt or not?

I like it, where to find this?

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Weller 100% played deeper forward in the two JLT games than he did at St Kilda, more a winger that pushed forward last season.

Him to kick 2+ @ 5.00 is a great shout.

 

[itsduffy]

Placed this a while ago... probably wouldn’t put Freo H2H in a multi now. Can’t cash out because it’s a free bet haha
Oh well $5 free bet into $1500 if it pays off

 

[Ohh Ok]

(2.5u) Rich/Mel/Ade @ $2

(2.5u) Richmond -9.5 (4th qtr) @ $1.88

(2.5u) Adelaide -19.5 @ $1.91

(1u) Cotchin over 87.5 fantasy (SB) @ 1.87

(2u) Cripps more disposals than Dusty (BE) @ $1,62

Was interested to see if there was a fantasy line set for Andrew Phillips.. not yet anyways..

Will keep track for a couple rounds. If going alright will continue posting. If crap will stop!

(1u) Richmond 1-39 @ 2.5 (SB)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Weller 100% played deeper forward in the two JLT games than he did at St Kilda, more a winger that pushed forward last season.

Him to kick 2+ @ 5.00 is a great shout.

May not be so deep when Lynch Riewoldt and dusty in same team. Someone's gotta get around their toes tho

 

[the_big_sav]

2u rich/over 189 @ 2.10
2u dusty and cripps 60d/1goal @ 3.00
2u rich 20+ 2nd half @ 1.80
1u rich 12+ 4th 1/4 @ 2.05
1u carl 80-99 rich 100-119 @ 8.00
1u carl 80-99 rich 120+ @ 6.50
1u rich 40-49 @ 6.50