Politics The Hangar Politics Thread

[Beerfish]

The second part shouldn't confuse you.

Anyway, I was asking a hypothetical about Labor simply promising abolishing negative gearing for votes rather than actually doing it. That seems like a more likely outcome to me.

Nothing would surprise me.

So the guy literally shat his pants?

 

[DapperJong]

Nothing would surprise me.

So the guy literally shat his pants?

It hasn't been confirmed but it certainly makes sense. It happened after Cronulla lost the final in '97.

https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/scott-morrison-shat-himself-at-engadine-maccas-in-1997/

 

[Beerfish]

It hasn't been confirmed but it certainly makes sense. It happened after Cronulla lost the final in '97.

https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/scott-morrison-shat-himself-at-engadine-maccas-in-1997/

Struggled to get through that without losing my shit at my desk. Came close more than once and had to stop reading

 

[Howard Moon]

Just like the Olympic cycle, every 4 years the BF swear filter syncs it's two words perfectly. Campaigners.

 

[DapperDon]

 

[Whispering_Jack]

Just like the Olympic cycle, every 4 years the BF swear filter syncs it's two words perfectly. Campaigners.

Federal elections are every 3 years, generally

 

[Loonerty]

So the ABC political compass is up and running again. Thought it'd be interesting to see others' results.

Here's mine:

I'm surprised I'm not closer to the Greens really.

Here's the link:
https://votecompass.abc.net.au/

 

[Lore]

So the ABC political compass is up and running again. Thought it'd be interesting to see others' results.

Here's mine:
View attachment 652668
I'm surprised I'm not closer to the Greens really.

Here's the link:
https://votecompass.abc.net.au/

Even closer to the ALP than you are.

But it's a bit silly. This morning I did the one on http://www.politicalcompass.org

The red dot in the lower left quadrant is me. Right in the middle of Jeremy Corbyn, Noam Chomsky, Bernie Sanders and Gandhi of all people. Lefty libertarian apparently. It's a pity there isn't an axis for common sense.


The same website also plots parties onto the scale after each election in various countries. Below is Aus16, UK17, US16, US08 primaries and US08. They should be labeled with the file name if you care enough to open them individually.

 

[eth-dog]

Surprised I'm not further left tbh

 

[jmoo wan]

this tool is great to show that maybe blindly identifying to a single group and being parochial works for football, but maybe not for politics where we should access each individual issue on its own merits?

 

[Loonerty]

this tool is great to show that maybe blindly identifying to a single group and being parochial works for football, but maybe not for politics where we should access each individual issue on its own merits?

That's what the bit on the right is for. You can weight it by what you care most about. Then there is something underneath the map where you can look issue by issue.

 

[jmoo wan]

That's what the bit on the right is for. You can weight it by what you care most about. Then there is something underneath the map where you can look issue by issue.

i missed that- but it further proves my point



the top three are near identical match, and 60% alignment is not great- that’s 40% that we disagree on.

 

[Lore]

i missed that- but it further proves my point

View attachment 652779

the top three are near identical match, and 60% alignment is not great- that’s 40% that we disagree on.

If you were 100% the same on every policy then you’d have to wonder whether the party is reading your mind or whether you’ve swallowed their platform in its entirety without chewing.

Some of it is really dumb though. Like a republic. As if that’s the big ticket item. And I don’t want one anyway so I disagree with all of the parties so it actually isn’t a question that tells you anything. Or asylum seekers. No politician worth his salt is gonna reopen that can of worms before an election, so you actually don’t know what their policy stance is. And I doubt they’ll open that can of worms after an election either since it’s only 2.5 years to the next one. Basically you’re either completely against mandatory detention and throw your lot in with the greens, or you’re completely for it and go with the big two.

Some of the questions ask about corporate taxes, funding to private schools, changes to investment properties. I don’t know how you could give a simplistic answer to those questions without knowing the specifics and the ramifications of that particular plan.

 

[The Speaker]

VoteCompass is a good idea to get people thinking beyond 'us vs them', but it's a flawed model.

 

[ant555]

VoteCompass is a good idea to get people thinking beyond 'us vs them', but it's a flawed model.

I agree as the questions are very basic although in saying that I landed pretty much where I thought and that is just to the right.

 

[Blind Turn]

Most appropriate headline I’ve seen for a while. I’m assuming that the editor is a BigFooty poster of course...

 

[Lore]

I like the changes they've made to the senate voting. 12 below the line is quite doable, there's 12 candidates just between labor and liberal already so you could theoretically vote just for the big two.

Especially because most of the minor parties are absolute garbage, nutters of one type or another. Finding 6 of those to preference is almost impossible this year.

 

[Doss]

The Speaker, you've been pretty on the mark with predicting election/poll results generally...

What's your prediction this Saturday?

 

[DERO]

I just did the ABC compass and freaked myself out.

 

[The Speaker]

The Speaker, you've been pretty on the mark with predicting election/poll results generally...

What's your prediction this Saturday?

In all honesty, I have not spent enough time watching the campaign to feel particularly confident about any direction, which is a bit more of a problem in this election than it would've been a decade ago because I suspect there's going to be some really different results in individual seats, but little change at a macro level. Minority govt is much more likely than anything else - the 2PP polling is too tight but favours ALP, while Morrison is seen better than Shorten and leaders are more important than ever (allegedly). This makes it different to 2013, when the Coalition was consistently a few points further ahead, and Abbott was more popular than Rudd (and Gillard before).

Which way the minority govt is more likely to be, I have no idea. Depends a lot on what happens in Warringah, Dickson, Higgins etc., and a lot of those seats are not traditional contests (although the majority are).

The only result that would really surprise me is a Coalition majority govt. In some ways it reminds me of the last WA state election, where there was a chunk of seats the Liberals held where you could basically "well, if that one falls, all these other ones will fall as well", which is exactly what happened. The only question was if one of them would fall. This election is similarly down to a chunk of seats, but the big difference this time is that they are spread all over the country and have completely different local circumstances, whereas in WA they were all fairly similar kinds of seats.

 

[eth-dog]

It's honestly hard to believe that Higgins can be considered a possible Labor seat and the coalition are still in the election. I mean it's the safest Lib seat ever.

 

[The Speaker]

It's honestly hard to believe that Higgins can be considered a possible Labor seat and the coalition are still in the election. I mean it's the safest Lib seat ever.

The ALP aren't necessarily the ones in the race to gain it.

 

[eth-dog]

The ALP aren't necessarily the ones in the race to gain it.

I know the Greens are just as big a threat but it's predicated on the Liberal primary vote is around the 47% mark. I think the ALP are more likely to attract that 5% of Liberal voters than the Greens in terms of primary voting and on top of that I can't see many of them preferencing the Greens over the Liberals. I would rather the Greens win, don't get me wrong, but I do feel as if it's more likely to be Labor. In any case I'll be voting for Jason Ball.

 

[Whispering_Jack]

I think Victoria will be telling. If the Libs lose blue ribbon seats (a la the Victoria state election), then the swing will be on and they won't be able to make up enough ground in other states. QLD is obviously important too, but I think Victoria will be the best early indicator of where the election goes. An early large swing to Labor in those blue ribbon Liberal seats and the Libs have lost the election and Labor should comfortably take a majority. A closer contest in those seats, or a smaller swing and it could be a long night.

Side note, not much has really happened so far this week and the ads black out starts at midnight tonight, so I don't think much will change either way between now and Saturday night. I expect a 2PP of around 51/49 (as per Newspoll) which is probably a 6-8 seat ALP majority.

Side side note, the UAP influence will be interesting to watch.

 

[Loonerty]

I think Victoria will be telling. If the Libs lose blue ribbon seats (a la the Victoria state election), then the swing will be on and they won't be able to make up enough ground in other states. QLD is obviously important too, but I think Victoria will be the best early indicator of where the election goes. An early large swing to Labor in those blue ribbon Liberal seats and the Libs have lost the election and Labor should comfortably take a majority. A closer contest in those seats, or a smaller swing and it could be a long night.

Side note, not much has really happened so far this week and the ads black out starts at midnight tonight, so I don't think much will change either way between now and Saturday night. I expect a 2PP of around 51/49 (as per Newspoll) which is probably a 6-8 seat ALP majority.

Side side note, the UAP influence will be interesting to watch.

How many sides can one man possibly have?

I ****ing love election coverage, bummed that our game is on Saturday night. Will have both on for sure though.