Coronavirus/COVID-19

[dogwatch]

Every day the number of ACT cases of Covid-19 go up by about 8-10. It's now at 62. Every day they say all but 1-2 of these are people who returned from overseas travel or a cruise. The other one or two are people who were "in close contact" with a known case, presumably a partner or housemate. They assure us there is "no community transmission".

I'm watching with interest. If this is true then the number of new cases should quickly fall to only 2-3/day in the next few days.

Similar thing on the national stage. If social distancing and isolation measures are effective we should see a very noticeable decline in the rate of new cases in the next week. Not the exponential growth that's being reported at the moment.

I'm sceptical. Especially when we read that 80+% compliance will work but 70% or less will still result in an Italian style catastrophe. Too many people don't give a s**t or simply don't comprehend. A shortage of credible leadership and clear, consistent messaging doesn't help.

EDIT: The ABC just posted an article reporting that experts say we won't know for another two weeks - around Easter. This scares the crap out of me (my bolding):

Hassan Vally, associate professor of public health at La Trobe University, said that is due to the long incubation period of coronavirus.

"It's going to take some time for us to know whether our public health interventions, including social distancing, are actually working and of course, the only measure of that will be how many cases we see about 10 days to two weeks from now," he said.

"The biggest worry, of course, is that we get a nasty surprise two weeks from now and find out that what we've been doing hasn't been working.

"And then we're in a bit of a situation where we're going to ramp everything up very quickly."

Are Australia's coronavirus restrictions effective in combating the spread?

Australians have been asked to stay home, most businesses are shut and jobs are being lost, but is it all helping fight the spread of coronavirus?

www.abc.net.au

 

[NBates]

Possible benefits outta this period:

pedestrians/drivers are being courteous & waving thanks , fireworks will now look like an extravagance , China bans cruel wet markets (yer, right, just like after SARS), Aussies will be forced to holiday within their own country for a while, no AFLW/Gold Coast/GWS

....tbc...

 

[King Harold]

Every day the number of ACT cases of Covid-19 go up by about 8-10. It's now at 62. Every day they say all but 1-2 of these are people who returned from overseas travel or a cruise. The other one or two are people who were "in close contact" with a known case, presumably a partner or housemate. They assure us there is "no community transmission".

I'm watching with interest. If this is true then the number of new cases should quickly fall to only 2-3/day in the next few days.

Similar thing on the national stage. If social distancing and isolation measures are effective we should see a very noticeable decline in the rate of new cases in the next week. Not the exponential growth that's being reported at the moment.

I'm sceptical. Especially when we read that 80+% compliance will work but 70% or less will still result in an Italian style catastrophe. Too many people don't give a s**t or simply don't comprehend. A shortage of credible leadership and clear, consistent messaging doesn't help.

check out all the data of the 1918 Spanish flu , it all lines up with what we are seeing now.
Social distancing is the only way to curd the spread .
Governments have very little tools to work with in the initial stages.

 

[dogwatch]

check out all the data of the 1918 Spanish flu , it all lines up with what we are seeing now.
Social distancing is the only way to curd the spread .
Governments have very little tools to work with in the initial stages.

Got a recommended link? I could do my own searching of course but if you've got a particular reference in mind ...

Without checking out the data you refer to I would say that things are very different now (and in other ways very much the same).
What's different:

• We actually know what a virus is and have a wealth of knowledge on viral contagion and epidemics
• We have far more comprehensive and more immediate statistical information to base decision-making on (meaning decisions can be more timely)
• There is now global collaboration and sharing on medical research, analysis and pharmaceutical production (eg treatments, testing, vaccines, public hygiene measures).
• We have very different supply chains. This is both good and bad. Where we rely on international supply chains and they get disrupted we are in trouble but if the supply chains still operate we can source essential products from all over the country and all over the globe.
• In Australia at least there is a reasonable degree of affluence for at least 70% of the population (no source data on this, it's just my guess) so measures like self-isolation are possible. Compare that to living conditions in 1919 or to some third world countries today.
• We have telecommunications and TV to deliver information and new official rules instantly. How would they have done that in 1919?
• There is far more international travel and physical interconnectedness. In epidemiological terms this is almost entirely a bad thing. A huge number of our current active cases are people who have stepped off a cruise ship or returned from international trips, whether for leisure or business purposes. Obviously these cases have been the ones seeding the spread of Covid-19 in Australia. This leads to another difference:
• Due to mass international movement of people the disease has spread very quickly around the world. We have had very little time to watch, plan and prepare as it has spread on other continents. We are probably only a few weeks behind Italy and the USA.
• The incubation time for Covid-19 is longer than for Spanish flu ... up to 14 days. As we saw with the HIV/AIDS epidemic a long delay between the time of infection and the manifestation of symptoms meant (a) the disease spreads well ahead of attempts to identify and isolate sufferers and (b) it is harder to work out exactly how it is spreading (there's still uncertainty about how much infected surfaces are a factor, for instance).

What's the same:

• The most effective measures are the same as they always have been (in the absence of a vaccine) - good personal hygiene such as frequent hand-washing and cleaning of surfaces, social distancing, isolation of sufferers from healthy members of the community
• Fear, scapegoating and misinformation spread much faster than reassurance, tolerance and fact. (Somebody should do an epidemiological study of the transmission rate of F,S & M compared to R,T &F!)
• While the virus itself is no respecter of wealth or class it will always be the people at the bottom of the pecking order - the poor and the powerless - who will suffer the worst in a pandemic.
• We are still at the mercy of our elected leaders to get it right. Choose wisely!

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Got a recommended link?

I watched a couple of youtube documentaries about 1918 Spanish flu earlier this week. They were all good and useful. Unfortunately because the previous pandemic was prior to living memory, it appears hardly any governments have heeded the lessons that were available from the past. And so history repeats...

There was one video with the author of a history book about Spanish flu which included a comparison between the approaches in 1918 that Philadelphia and St Louis each took which was eerily similar to my recent post comparing Tennessee and Kentucky.

 

[wayniac]

I watched a couple of youtube documentaries about 1918 Spanish flu earlier this week. They were all good and useful. Unfortunately because the previous pandemic was prior to living memory, it appears hardly any governments have heeded the lessons that were available from the past. And so history repeats...

There was one video with the author of a history book about Spanish flu which included a comparison between the approaches in 1918 that Philadelphia and St Louis each took which was eerily similar to my recent post comparing Tennessee and Kentucky.

I lived through the 1958 flu pandemic. I was ill for about a month and my parents both worked full time, so I stayed in their bedroom and the next door neighbour popped around to make sure I was OK. It was pretty dreadful and the pandemic was similar to the current one in origin and spread:

In the first months of the 1957 flu pandemic, the virus spread throughout China and surrounding regions. By midsummer it had reached the United States, where it appears to have initially infected relatively few people. Several months later, however, numerous cases of infection were reported, especially in young children, the elderly, and pregnant women. This upsurge in cases was the result of a second pandemic wave of illness that struck the Northern Hemisphere in November 1957. At that time the pandemic was also already widespread in the United Kingdom. By December a total of some 3,550 deaths had been reported in England and Wales. The second wave was particularly devastating, and by March 1958 an estimated 69,800 deaths had occurred in the United States.

 

[Mattdougie]

We need to all isolate spend our 6 weeks closed down.... but many aren’t listening, so this will be more like 8-12 months. Hoping it’s only 8-12 months.


Our government is trying to flatten the curve.... which is basically the Hird Immunity strategy. Slow but don’t stop the spread, it eventually gets to 60+% of population and thus achieves their goal.


I would have hoped that we could have gone the full lockdown, control and contain but obviously not.
Why we might not have that option:
People are not isolating
Not enough tests available
Not enough equipment

I know that the tests are short but our society not isolating could be the bigger issue.

You can’t Seriously think we will be locked up for 8 months?

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Plan:

1000 Fit and healthy 20-30 year olds should volunteer to be infected and battle the virus. Program to be located at major stadiums and will be monitored by health professionals. Volunteers will be paid to take part as we build towards herd immunity.

Experiment to be broadcast LIVE on FoxFooty. Roaming Brian to be released into the stadium on Day 7 or whenever the virus is deemed most contagious.

 

[LittleG]

You can’t Seriously think we will be locked up for 8 months?

The shopping centres are still busy. People line up right behind the person in front. House parties still going. Supermarkets have little idea about proper hygiene, well maybe the corporations but not the staff.

After stage 3 for 8 weeks, we will come out for a 10 day ‘celebration’ & the virus will spark higher and then back in for the other 6 months while they actually work out cleaning processes and testing, then it will finally be over.


My industry will be virtually dead. Too much incompetence on a global scale.

 

[Mattdougie]

The shopping centres are still busy. People line up right behind the person in front. House parties still going. Supermarkets have little idea about proper hygiene, well maybe the corporations but not the staff.

After stage 3 for 8 weeks, we will come out for a 10 day ‘celebration’ & the virus will spark higher and then back in for the other 6 months while they actually work out cleaning processes and testing, then it will finally be over.


My industry will be virtually dead. Too much incompetence on a global scale.

Explain to me how the virus is still around after 8 weeks of stage 3?

It has an incubation period of 7-14 days I just don’t see the apocalypse some of you do if we go into stage 3

 

[maddog37]

Explain to me how the virus is still around after 8 weeks of stage 3?

It has an incubation period of 7-14 days I just don’t see the apocalypse some of you do if we go into stage 3

stil unknown. The media says I should panic tho so I am gonna go with that.

 

[ossie_21]

stil unknown. The media says I should panic tho so I am gonna go with that.

 

[Mattdougie]

stil unknown. The media says I should panic tho so I am gonna go with that.

Obviously it’s still unknown but the fear mongering even in here is just ridiculous. People saying we will get to Italian levels is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. We don’t have the population or density to get there unless we all start licking each other from head to toe.

Sure it’s not great but so many people going worse case and scaring the shite out of humans who can’t think for themselves

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

stil unknown. The media says I should panic tho so I am gonna go with that.

 

[NBates]

Boris has it!!

 

[Mattdougie]

I always thought that pink thing was a tongue until one of my kids told me he is a starfish.

Why would a tongue be under the sea dad? Well what’s a bloody sponge doing there?

 

[Sentinel]

Obviously it’s still unknown but the fear mongering even in here is just ridiculous. People saying we will get to Italian levels is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. We don’t have the population or density to get there unless we all start licking each other from head to toe.

Sure it’s not great but so many people going worse case and scaring the shite out of humans who can’t think for themselves

We are highly unlikely to get as bad as the situation in Italy for the reasons you've mentioned, but there's good reason why the government is looking at the option of using the Exhibition Centre as a makeshift hospital and morgue. That's not the media nor is it fear mongering, that's what's actually happening.

Let's hope its just an over the top measure but, at the moment, no one really knows where it lands

8 weeks of stage 3 won't end the threat for good though, that's certain.

 

[Mattdougie]

We are highly unlikely to get as bad as the situation in Italy for the reasons you've mentioned, but there's good reason why the government is looking at the option of using the Exhibition Centre as a makeshift hospital and morgue. That's not the media nor is it fear mongering, that's what's actually happening.

Let's hope its just an over the top measure but, at the moment, no one really knows where it lands

8 weeks of stage 3 won't end the threat for good though, that's certain.

Dan Andrews said himself became hopes not to use the Convention centre but they are setting it up if it is needed. He also said the MCG and Marvel could be used and I don’t doubt some of that is said in an attempt to scare the population into staying home.

I didn’t say 8 weeks will end the threat but it should contain it to a level some normality can start to return.

 

[Sentinel]

Dan Andrews said himself became hopes not to use the Convention centre but they are setting it up if it is needed. He also said the MCG and Marvel could be used and I don’t doubt some of that is said in an attempt to scare the population into staying home.

I didn’t say 8 weeks will end the threat but it should contain it to a level some normality can start to return.

Perhaps, I'm not sure. I certainly hope (optimistically) that even the Exhibition Centre isn't needed but I think at the moment the point is to make sure the general population takes it seriously so more extreme measures aren't necessary as we all hope they're not.

Things like St Kilda beach today don't fill me with hope that the message has been enough to date.

I'd say there's a chance we will see restrictions lifted at some point around 8 weeks from now if the message today is listened to, but any easing off may well be very temporary because it's likely going to come in waves.

 

[NBates]

Is there a dob in line? Know someone who took someone for a test last night. Now the sick person is staying with them. Asked them how they are going to get groceries and offered to go. They said they hadn't been told to isolate so would stock up tomorrow!!! They said they'd ask someone they know who are closer to shop - which I know it's bull. So I told them make sure they do and not be one of those idiots that could spread it and it end up with 2 family members of mine who have cancer. How are people so dumb and selfish.

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Is there a dob in line? Know someone who took someone for a test last night. Now the sick person is staying with them. Asked them how they are going to get groceries and offered to go. They said they hadn't been told to isolate so would stock up tomorrow!!! They said they'd ask someone they know who are closer to shop - which I know it's bull. So I told them make sure they do and not be one of those idiots that could spread it and it end up with 2 family members of mine who have cancer. How are people so dumb and selfish.

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

Stupidity is a more widespread pandemic than the China virus.

 

[LittleG]

Explain to me how the virus is still around after 8 weeks of stage 3?

It has an incubation period of 7-14 days I just don’t see the apocalypse some of you do if we go into stage 3

Because they aren’t going to test everyone. The town of Vo in Italy did and found that there were multiple people infected with no symptoms and were wondering around the community.


People are too selfish to isolate:
I don’t believe stage 3 quarantine will stop many from socialising. Stage 2 is doing little to change behaviour. Virus will keep spreading with asymptotic carriers.

 

[BrisDog]

Explain to me how the virus is still around after 8 weeks of stage 3?

It has an incubation period of 7-14 days I just don’t see the apocalypse some of you do if we go into stage 3

Don’t tell me you are on the Chloroquine bandwagon MD? FMD

 

[BrisDog]

Brisdog sitrep boys: still stuck overseas. I am on good health but am growing increasingly despondent at our current government.

Ol’ ScoMo was telling us a month ago to go to the footy - ‘Go Sharkies’. Well how about you go and get f**ked as DFAT has not arranged jack s**t for me and when/if I get home instead of going to my daughters birthday I spend 2 weeks in a hotel room.

The horse has bolted ScoMo - you f**ked it. Keeping a few hundred honest tax payers (I’m not one of those dickheads in Bali) away from their kids is just PR bullshit.

 

[weltschmerz]

Is there a dob in line? Know someone who took someone for a test last night. Now the sick person is staying with them. Asked them how they are going to get groceries and offered to go. They said they hadn't been told to isolate so would stock up tomorrow!!! They said they'd ask someone they know who are closer to shop - which I know it's bull. So I told them make sure they do and not be one of those idiots that could spread it and it end up with 2 family members of mine who have cancer. How are people so dumb and selfish.

Sent from my SM-A505YN using Tapatalk

Crimestoppers or the corona help line might be good places to start.