List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[GrommoT]

I think we’re wavering between pick 1 “for Horne” or pick 4 for a star who isn’t named Horne

I also suspect we drop further back down the ladder to improve our current first round pick

There are a number of teams below us that made a big song and dance about this being “the year” (looking at you Carlton, Saints) which we have outperformed, they would want to overtake us quick smart... or are they addicted to low picks?

So, I’m hoping (I can’t believe I’m saying this) but I want Carlton to beat us.

We keep talking about getting 50 games into the kids - that’s two seasons, and it presupposes every kid we’ve picked up is a winner. Every other club will want to move up too. So, good pick this year, and it’s true we’ve got an age hole in the list... let’s see where this goes

There's also our (own) second round pick - either a pretty good early 2nd-er or a mid one if we do end up mid-table. And if Mrouch does leave for FA and we get a tier-3 compo, it would be immediately after our 2nd-er - a fair bit at stake here.

 

[jackster83]

Looks like the SA U19 squad is about to be released.

Centrals have a number of players in the squad including Dudley.

 

[Jirkago75]

This echoes what I said over in the Nicks thread a while back.

"Problem for Nicks is what happens when our raft of experienced players retire? We're lacking in decent players in that 24-28 year old range who will need to replace our older brigade. There's a chance we're seeing the best of Nicks right now as he has a decent mix of youth and experience. People shouldn't just assume that our progress will be linear and we will get better year to year".

I have a feeling the club will try to address this by bringing in some mature agers and this is likely to piss a lot of people off. It's going to be a real test for Nicks because we do need to fill out our 24-28 age bracket but if we bring in the wrong guys, we risk stifling the development of our new draftees.

We could just wait it out and keep hitting the draft but knowing Adelaide, they will want a quicker fix.

I think Nicks has been outstanding and the players love him. besides the GWS game, we have competed well. Our midfield mix is terrible and we need elite talent to fix that, who would come here at 27+ in a rebuild?? No one decent, we need to keep on this track unless elite talent wants to come. by the time Walker and Sloane are done, we will have our young players more experienced and hopefully more consistent. Then in 3 years we will attract top talent

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Ahh hence why I said he's an unknown?

I had high hopes for his transition this year but now there's a chance that we'll never know.

I know. I'm just saying if you make the necessary subtractions from your list, we suddenly dont look stacked for mids in the 24-28 year old bracket. Two of those guys probably shouldn't be there. Milera is not a midfielder. Then as you mentioned, Crouch is 50/50. Surely you'd want him to put pen to paper before considering him as part of our future.

So that leaves Laird, O'Brien, Keayes as proven mids. Pretty blue collar but workable. I'm bullish on Schoenberg, Pedlar and Berry also. All have potential to be better than blue collar imo.

Taking all of this into account, I'd still like another 2 quality mids. Then draft forwards of all stripes. The exception being that if a quality KPF comes up, that would take precedence over a midfielder.

 

[hey shorty]

Pedlar, Berry and Schoenberg will help form the base of the next midfield, and I'm reasonably confident Hately will also fill a role. McHenry looking better by the week too. Hamill could transition into an outside mid role in time. ROC needs to be given some time, but he's having a good year at SANFL level.

Keays has years left in him, Laird a few as well. Crouch who knows but at this stage I have him leaving.

Jones settling in the side but midfield looks a way off midfield at this point.

Milera who knows, but his skillset would be very handy in there at least in a part time basis.

Stephens could be an option in a trade

Then we go this year, and next, to the draft with reasonably high picks and get the top end talent we need.

I accept that's an overly positive outlook but I think we aren't missing too many pieces.

 

[Golumless]

This echoes what I said over in the Nicks thread a while back.

"Problem for Nicks is what happens when our raft of experienced players retire? We're lacking in decent players in that 24-28 year old range who will need to replace our older brigade. There's a chance we're seeing the best of Nicks right now as he has a decent mix of youth and experience. People shouldn't just assume that our progress will be linear and we will get better year to year".

I have a feeling the club will try to address this by bringing in some mature agers and this is likely to piss a lot of people off. It's going to be a real test for Nicks because we do need to fill out our 24-28 age bracket but if we bring in the wrong guys, we risk stifling the development of our new draftees.

We could just wait it out and keep hitting the draft but knowing Adelaide, they will want a quicker fix.

It is quite possible this will be the best of Nicks as a coach, but that's more to do with rebuilds having an inherent risk to them. After all, next year is harder then this year, and two years in the future is even harder for a rebuilding coach as the losses will add up eventually, and it's easy to lose a playing group when the going gets tough (and there is no doubt that it will). Losing our experienced players is most likely not a worry though, this year was going to be the worst of it seeing we had gone from being the 2nd most experienced list to the least experienced in the space of 24 months, and we had given up our (then) best midfielder as well in the off-season. Unlike when Taila, Sloane and Tex, there wasn't a standout replacement for Brouch getting games (and I don't think anyone had Ben Keays being the man to do it in the off-season... well maybe Mutineer did). By the time Tex goes, Thilthorpe and Fogarty likely have another 30 games into them. We've already seen the post-Talia world. Schoenberg is probably ready to replace Sloane now as a main midfielder. Seedsman might be a concern, but then again, maybe not.

It most certainly won't be linear though, and really a much bigger step up is required from going from a team stuck in the mid-table into the 8, then the absolute pits to the mid-table. We're going to be here a while, likely until Schoenberg, Berry, Thilthorpe, Sholl and Butts have 50-70 games under their belts.

Whilst Reid is our list manager, we're fully committed to a rebuild. His job depends on it. It's certainly a risk if we replace Reid though. What is a worry is if we start chasing 24-28 year old players. Unless they're either really good (i.e. Lachie Neale to Brisbane), or there is a lot of scope for improvement, or your looking for certain aspects structurally (which is why you bring in anyone). Chasing players to make you competitive is just a mirage though. They won't achieve it.

 

[Bearded Clam]

I think we should be doing the best we can to encourage CCJ home.

tell himm to look for a trade and let him know we will make any trade very easy to facilitate. Stale packet of chips will do it. Suns could probably do with another 200cm forward/ruck with experience.

keep Frampton for depth and SANFL leadership which, according to Nicksy anyway, he has really stepped up and provided this year.

get Matt Roberts.. hopefully he’ll be there at our 1st pick which should be between 3 and 7. His recent ankle injury should help see him slide a bit.

if we got CCJ then our tall forwards in CCJ, Fog and TT would be set for years to come. The advantage being that even though they are really tall both CCJ and TT are very mobile and agile for big men.. hell, TT plays like an extra tall small forward ffs!

we desperately need an xfactor small forward. Rowe I think will improve but we need an indigenous lad. The indigenous lads just seems to have it.. but I’m not sure newchurch is the one.

Dylan Stephens and jordan Dawson (perfect age bracket) should be seriously considered and sounded out if there is even the tiniest of rumours about them wanting to come home..

and, of course, next year, if one or both of them dont re-sign, Luko and Rankine should be right in our crosshairs.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Chasing players to make you competitive is just a mirage though. They won't achieve it.

This is Adelaide though. Let's not pretend it's a well run club. If we're seriously looking at guys like Dumont, we're in for a long rebuild.

 

[hey shorty]

This is Adelaide though. Let's not pretend it's a well run club. If we're seriously looking at guys like Dumont, we're in for a long rebuild.

If it were the previous admin and coaching staff d agree, but we've deliberately stacked our coaching panel with development types.

I don't subscribe to the theory "next year will be harder than this" though. We'll be a better team next season than we were this one, and will continue to improve albeit nothing is ever linear

Where it gets tougher for Nicks, and by extension Hamish and Reid, is the expectations will increase

 

[Mutineer]

This is Adelaide though. Let's not pretend it's a well run club. If we're seriously looking at guys like Dumont, we're in for a long rebuild.

I don't put zero credence on big footy rumours or AFL media stooges spitballing who we should/could go after.

 

[Vader]

If it were the previous admin and coaching staff d agree, but we've deliberately stacked our coaching panel with development types.

I don't subscribe to the theory "next year will be harder than this" though. We'll be a better team next season than we were this one, and will continue to improve albeit nothing is ever linear

Where it gets tougher for Nicks, and by extension Hamish and Reid, is the expectations will increase

The youngsters will continue to improve (albeit non-linearly). The question is whether we see a significant drop when Tex & Sloane retire, putting a lot more responsibility on the youngsters - given our lack of talent in the 24-28 year group?

Our senior players are still consistently our best performed players this year. Remove Tex from our forward line this year, and we're probably still searching for our 1st win of the season.

The question is whether or not the youngsters will be ready to step up and take that extra responsibility, when the veterans pull the plug? I like the looks of Pedlar/Schoenberg/Berry as our midfield group going forwards (with the addition of 1-2 genuine guns, hopefully in this year's draft). But there will probably be a gap of 1-2 years between when our veterans retire and when the youngsters are ready to hit their prime.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

If it were the previous admin and coaching staff d agree, but we've deliberately stacked our coaching panel with development types.

I don't subscribe to the theory "next year will be harder than this" though. We'll be a better team next season than we were this one, and will continue to improve albeit nothing is ever linear

Where it gets tougher for Nicks, and by extension Hamish and Reid, is the expectations will increase

The younger guys improve, the older guys taper off. Since we're still pretty reliant on the older guys, there is always potential for regression. Not saying it will happen for sure but it's something to consider and being emphatic that "we'll be a better team next season" is not the most level headed way of looking at things.

 

[Crow till I die]

Pedlar, Berry and Schoenberg will help form the base of the next midfield, and I'm reasonably confident Hately will also fill a role. McHenry looking better by the week too. Hamill could transition into an outside mid role in time. ROC needs to be given some time, but he's having a good year at SANFL level.

Keays has years left in him, Laird a few as well. Crouch who knows but at this stage I have him leaving.

Jones settling in the side but midfield looks a way off midfield at this point.

Milera who knows, but his skillset would be very handy in there at least in a part time basis.

Stephens could be an option in a trade

Then we go this year, and next, to the draft with reasonably high picks and get the top end talent we need.

I accept that's an overly positive outlook but I think we aren't missing too many pieces.

If we can get that top end mid this year with our 1st pick (ie roberts), then i would be looking at throwing the kitchen sink at getting rankine to the club the year after. He is the sort of player that if he can get his workrate up for whole games he is absolute a++ quality and would offer a massive edge to our young side going forward. But i agree we are certainly putting in place the building blocls and look to have fixed tge cultural.issues as well

 

[Scorpus]

If it were the previous admin and coaching staff d agree, but we've deliberately stacked our coaching panel with development types.

I don't subscribe to the theory "next year will be harder than this" though. We'll be a better team next season than we were this one, and will continue to improve albeit nothing is ever linear

Where it gets tougher for Nicks, and by extension Hamish and Reid, is the expectations will increase

Imagine Tex was Talia and out for most of the season.

We'd be sitting on 2 wins right now, if we're lucky. If Tex gets injured or goes back to 2020 form, we will struggle big time

 

[Jirkago75]

W

Pedlar, Berry and Schoenberg will help form the base of the next midfield, and I'm reasonably confident Hately will also fill a role. McHenry looking better by the week too. Hamill could transition into an outside mid role in time. ROC needs to be given some time, but he's having a good year at SANFL level.

Keays has years left in him, Laird a few as well. Crouch who knows but at this stage I have him leaving.

Jones settling in the side but midfield looks a way off midfield at this point.

Milera who knows, but his skillset would be very handy in there at least in a part time basis.

Stephens could be an option in a trade

Then we go this year, and next, to the draft with reasonably high picks and get the top end talent we need.

I accept that's an overly positive outlook but I think we aren't missing too many pieces.

e have a good defensive midfielders, I hope we got a few attacking ones that can kick goals as we’ve lacked quality ones for a while

 

[Mutineer]

W

e have a good defensive midfielders, I hope we got a few attacking ones that can kick goals as we’ve lacked quality ones for a while

Pedlar and Berry are both goal kicking mids.

 

[Mutineer]

Haven’t seen him in the flesh but heard he had a belter last Saturday against the Legs. So went and had a read, apparently he’s a pure wing? May be a point of difference for the lad in trying for a State team spot.

And right on cue, just posted by the SANFL on their Youtube channel.

 

[latinoheat]

Lol no he didn't

The great TAFKATMS is back!! What’s the latest goss at the club?

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Pedlar and Berry are both goal kicking mids.

Pedlar seems to have no issues finding the goals in the SANFL. Berry would have a few more to his name too if he didn't have the yips earlier this season. I think his goal kicking is actually going to be a feature of his game when some more experience irons out the nerves.

 

[Jirkago75]

Pedlar and Berry are both goal kicking mids.

Unproven at this stage but we hope so

 

[Mutineer]

Unproven at this stage but we hope so

Unproven at AFL level maybe but it was a feature of both lads junior career especially Luke Pedlar so there's every reason to believe it can continue at the the top level.

 

[Mego Red]

Expecting to rise up to flag contention with little to no genuinely elite players is also a mugs game.

You need to get lots of things right, and having access high end players is one of them.

Absolutely, look at all the flags Carlton has won

 

[hey shorty]

The younger guys improve, the older guys taper off. Since we're still pretty reliant on the older guys, there is always potential for regression. Not saying it will happen for sure but it's something to consider and being emphatic that "we'll be a better team next season" is not the most level headed way of looking at things.

I did say it was an optimistic view.

Aside from Sloane and Walker though, we haven't got that many best 22 types who are old enough to think they'll taper badly. Maybe Lynch, but we're winning without him.

And Mackay.... But yeah let's not go there.

 

[hey shorty]

Imagine Tex was Talia and out for most of the season.

We'd be sitting on 2 wins right now, if we're lucky. If Tex gets injured or goes back to 2020 form, we will struggle big time

Yeah for sure, but I also expect the majority of the squad to improve.

I said at the end of last year we'd be much better, and most disagreed.

 

[ABAB]

Unproven at this stage but we hope so

Berry is unproven? He had as many opportunity to kick quite a few goals as Schoenberg this year.