List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[Betts are off]

Unfortunately we have very little chance of getting him - which is a shame because he would be prefect for our midfield.
Using the ladder predictor, I have us finishing 13th (on percentage, we are equal 11th on games won). Whilst I've enjoyed the wins this year, I can't help but think this is actually a disaster when it comes to where our rebuild will peak in a few years time. We need quality, high ends mids. This isn't going to get it for us.

Might be a touch dramatic DJ. I think we all want Horne, but referring the budding rebuilds peak as a potential disaster because we are no longer bad enough to lay claim on the #1 overall pick? Pretty long bow to draw IMO, especially in a midfield rich draft

 

[Danger in Texas]

Roberts with his foot injury will miss the next couple of months and the U18 champs..he may very well slip to pick 6 or 7 which is likely right in our hitting zone - and he looks like he would be a great fit for our list. Its what we do with our 2nd and the Melbourne 2nd that will really be telling as guys like Arlo Draper might be back end of 1st round..how do we get a pick there if that is the plan

Yep, Roberts and Draper is my master plan of sorts. Especially with Roberts ruled out for pretty much the rest of the year, likely falling a few spots (reminds me of Jy Simpkin, who tore his ACL but on talent, never really deserved to go as low as he did)

Roberts is a game-breaker type of midfielder without doubt, especially with his goal-kicking ability. He's the type of midfielder we need to add to our mix, he mightn't be tall but he has some type of point of difference. If we can somehow get Draper to develop as well, we'll be in a great position

 

[Crow till I die]

Norwood's Mid/Small Forward Cooper Murley now he's back from his ankle injury he sustained at AFC training is one to keep a very serious eye on possibly in the back end of the 1st round and Glenelg's highly skilled running back/mid Lewis Rayson also possibly around that mark or even at our current 2nd pick.

Do you think young Sturt forward Ferres might be on the radar around the Melbourne 2nd we have? he has taken apart sides at U18 level off his own boot this year

 

[1990crow]

Anyone know if Horne, Roberts and Draper are mates? Might help in the long run to get Horne home if we have the latter two.

 

[Crow till I die]

Yep, Roberts and Draper is my master plan of sorts. Especially with Roberts ruled out for pretty much the rest of the year, likely falling a few spots (reminds me of Jy Simpkin, who tore his ACL but on talent, never really deserved to go as low as he did)

Roberts is a game-breaker type of midfielder without doubt, especially with his goal-kicking ability. He's the type of midfielder we need to add to our mix, he mightn't be tall but he has some type of point of difference. If we can somehow get Draper to develop as well, we'll be in a great position

I liked the look of Pedlar on the weekend watching him live - burst from packs and was tough. if Roberts is a similar type player who also carries a goal threat and a reliable kick, he would surely have to be right at the pointy end of who we would want with our pick. It will be great to have a few roaming through the midfield that have that real burst of pace.

 

[Mutineer]

Do you think young Sturt forward Ferres might be on the radar around the Melbourne 2nd we have? he has taken apart sides at U18 level off his own boot this year

I think if Ferres keeps up his current projection and has a big Nationals he likely moves into 1st round discussions if he's not already there....not a lot of his type available and we know Georgiades a similar type player went 1st round even though he played no footy in his draft year due to injury.

 

[Golumless]

Anyone know if Horne, Roberts and Draper are mates? Might help in the long run to get Horne home if we have the latter two.

Jared Polec is playing his what, 150th game for us this weekend?

The thing that'll attract Horne back is if we have money or we are looking very promising.

 

[StonesThrow]

Horne potentially might be the best mid in this draft but there's 5 or 6 others that potentially could be just as good or close to it. Of all the potential top 10 mid prospects in this draft Horne is by far the most physically advanced which might level out a bit when others reach his stage of growth.

He is but he also has nearly every tool you could want. How many other players have his tools?

 

[DaKids]

Losing games to get high picks is a mugs game, been proven over and over again. Crows did it once - got a superstar. You don’t want to keep going down that path as you might not ever come back.

Plenty of excellent young lads besides Horne this year.

 

[Apsaalooke]

Losing games to get high picks is a mugs game, been proven over and over again. Crows did it once - got a superstar. You don’t want to keep going down that path as you might not ever come back.

Plenty of excellent young lads besides Horne this year.

I don't think we tried to lose any games last year. We sucked because we didn't have a game plan as new coach Nicks couldn't even get the whole group training together due to Covid let alone institute any meaningful system - hence the water bottles on the ground in the change rooms after a game. We had holes all over the ground until the last few rounds.

The unintended bonus is we got Thilthorpe

 

[Crowtel]

Unfortunately we have very little chance of getting him - which is a shame because he would be prefect for our midfield.
Using the ladder predictor, I have us finishing 13th (on percentage, we are equal 11th on games won). Whilst I've enjoyed the wins this year, I can't help but think this is actually a disaster when it comes to where our rebuild will peak in a few years time. We need quality, high ends mids. This isn't going to get it for us.

Winning culture always trumps that.

 

[Betts are off]

Losing games to get high picks is a mugs game, been proven over and over again. Crows did it once - got a superstar. You don’t want to keep going down that path as you might not ever come back.

Plenty of excellent young lads besides Horne this year.

Agreed. The slippery-est of slippery slopes.

 

[StonesThrow]

Losing games to get high picks is a mugs game, been proven over and over again. Crows did it once - got a superstar. You don’t want to keep going down that path as you might not ever come back.

Plenty of excellent young lads besides Horne this year.

Expecting to rise up to flag contention with little to no genuinely elite players is also a mugs game.

You need to get lots of things right, and having access high end players is one of them.

 

[Scorpus]

Unfortunately we have very little chance of getting him - which is a shame because he would be prefect for our midfield.
Using the ladder predictor, I have us finishing 13th (on percentage, we are equal 11th on games won). Whilst I've enjoyed the wins this year, I can't help but think this is actually a disaster when it comes to where our rebuild will peak in a few years time. We need quality, high ends mids. This isn't going to get it for us.

I don't see this as a big issue. I actually think we won't have a linear progression up the ladder so we could easily go backwards next year.

The reason for this is that senior players are still contributing a lot to our wins, particularly Walker, but also guys like Sloane, Seedsman and Smith who are all at the end of their careers.

This isn't helped by the hole in talent we have between 24 and 28. When these older guys fall off, there isn't a core of guys in their prime to take over.

So we could easily tread water if any of these players fall away. I actually think if Walker regresses next season we will win fewer games. So there will be plenty of opportunities to get high picks and talent in the door over the next few seasons

 

[1990crow]

I don't see this as a big issue. I actually think we won't have a linear progression up the ladder so we could easily go backwards next year.

The reason for this is that senior players are still contributing a lot to our wins, particularly Walker, but also guys like Sloane, Seedsman and Smith who are all at the end of their careers.

This isn't helped by the hole in talent we have between 24 and 28. When these older guys fall off, there isn't a core of guys in their prime to take over.

So we could easily tread water if any of these players fall away. I actually think if Walker regresses next season we will win fewer games. So there will be plenty of opportunities to get high picks and talent in the door over the next few seasons

I think this is spot on. The issue currently is that midfield is there we need to greatly improve in and who knows whether there will be another top notch midfield draft in the coming two off seasons.
If we end up with pick 7 or so generally those picks don't turn into elite mids.

 

[Golumless]

I don't think we tried to lose any games last year. We sucked because we didn't have a game plan as new coach Nicks couldn't even get the whole group training together due to Covid let alone institute any meaningful system - hence the water bottles on the ground in the change rooms after a game. We had holes all over the ground until the last few rounds.

The unintended bonus is we got Thilthorpe

Also I think it goes without saying how broken our group was after Pyke, Burton and co.

A team truly at rock bottom after being caught in a death spiral.

 

[Crow till I die]

Agreed. The slippery-est of slippery slopes.

There is actually a name for that..its called doing a Carlton

 

[Mr_Moogle]

I don't see this as a big issue. I actually think we won't have a linear progression up the ladder so we could easily go backwards next year.

The reason for this is that senior players are still contributing a lot to our wins, particularly Walker, but also guys like Sloane, Seedsman and Smith who are all at the end of their careers.

This isn't helped by the hole in talent we have between 24 and 28. When these older guys fall off, there isn't a core of guys in their prime to take over.

So we could easily tread water if any of these players fall away. I actually think if Walker regresses next season we will win fewer games. So there will be plenty of opportunities to get high picks and talent in the door over the next few seasons

This echoes what I said over in the Nicks thread a while back.

"Problem for Nicks is what happens when our raft of experienced players retire? We're lacking in decent players in that 24-28 year old range who will need to replace our older brigade. There's a chance we're seeing the best of Nicks right now as he has a decent mix of youth and experience. People shouldn't just assume that our progress will be linear and we will get better year to year".

I have a feeling the club will try to address this by bringing in some mature agers and this is likely to piss a lot of people off. It's going to be a real test for Nicks because we do need to fill out our 24-28 age bracket but if we bring in the wrong guys, we risk stifling the development of our new draftees.

We could just wait it out and keep hitting the draft but knowing Adelaide, they will want a quicker fix.

 

[TAFKATMS]

Peter passed away

Lol no he didn't

 

[cmndstab]

Losing games to get high picks is a mugs game, been proven over and over again. Crows did it once - got a superstar. You don’t want to keep going down that path as you might not ever come back.

The bolded part sounds more like a reason to do it, than not. We did it once and got Thilthorpe out of it - how is that a mugs game? Yes, you want a winning culture etc, but our 2020 form doesn't matter to Thilthorpe now that he's here, and if we play our cards right we'll benefit from having him for a decade plus.

I think the thing is that you absolutely cannot impart to your players that you're not 100% dedicated to winning. As soon as they start to recognise that you wouldn't be disappointed with a loss, it's harmful to club culture. However, if losing matches just happens "naturally" - because the team isn't yet good enough to win - then I don't think it isn't harmful, and the benefits in the draft can be enormous.

The trick is for the coaching group to skirt that line - perhaps pick a slightly weaker team on paper knowing it means you will lose more matches, but being able to justify it to the playing group as picking for the future, rewarding kids, etc. However, you don't want them to be completely uncompetitive. You want the players to feel like "we're not there yet, but we're building..." and as you add more talent and get experience into that youth, you will eventually start to move up the ladder naturally.

 

[WeeBlake]

Lol no he didn't

Welcome back

 

[Deaneus!]

I think we’re wavering between pick 1 “for Horne” or pick 4 for a star who isn’t named Horne

I also suspect we drop further back down the ladder to improve our current first round pick

There are a number of teams below us that made a big song and dance about this being “the year” (looking at you Carlton, Saints) which we have outperformed, they would want to overtake us quick smart... or are they addicted to low picks?

So, I’m hoping (I can’t believe I’m saying this) but I want Carlton to beat us.

We keep talking about getting 50 games into the kids - that’s two seasons, and it presupposes every kid we’ve picked up is a winner. Every other club will want to move up too. So, good pick this year, and it’s true we’ve got an age hole in the list... let’s see where this goes

 

[StonesThrow]

I don't see this as a big issue. I actually think we won't have a linear progression up the ladder so we could easily go backwards next year.

The reason for this is that senior players are still contributing a lot to our wins, particularly Walker, but also guys like Sloane, Seedsman and Smith who are all at the end of their careers.

This isn't helped by the hole in talent we have between 24 and 28. When these older guys fall off, there isn't a core of guys in their prime to take over.

So we could easily tread water if any of these players fall away. I actually think if Walker regresses next season we will win fewer games. So there will be plenty of opportunities to get high picks and talent in the door over the next few seasons

This is a great post.

Only thing I'd point out is that our midfield is well stacked with that age group.

O'Brien (25) Laird (27) Crouch (26) Keays (24) and Milera (23)

Crouch may not be around and Milera is unknown with that injury, but o'brien, laird and Keays will be around for a while with the latter two being our best players this year. As long as Schoe, Berry and Pedlar come on (with this year's lot) I think this line will be fine through the rebuild.

The issue will be with our forward line and defence, although you could argue we've already been exposed on these lines this year, with Walker and Smith the only high performing regulated.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

This is a great post.

Only thing I'd point out is that our midfield is well stacked with that age group.

O'Brien (25) Laird (27) Crouch (26) Keays (24) and Milera (23)

Crouch may not be around and Milera is unknown with that injury, but o'brien, laird and Keays will be around for a while with the latter two being our best players this year. As long as Schoe, Berry and Pedlar come on (with this year's lot) I think this line will be fine through the rebuild.

The issue will be with our forward line and defence, although you could argue we've already been exposed on these lines this year, with Walker and Smith the only high performing regulated.

When has Milera ever been an effective midfielder? He hasn't proven himself in that role yet and by all accounts, the injury he copped was pretty awful for a guy whose best quality is being able to turn on a dime. I'm not placing any of my midfield hopes on him.

I feel reasonably bullish about Pedlar providing we can get him fit and his groin isn't an ongoing issue.

Forward line is an issue. We need small and medium sized forwards to put pressure on guys like Rowe and McAdam. Frampton and Himmelberg will also need to be replaced. Neither has a future in the AFL.

We still need to invest in midfielders though. No point having a great forward line if your midfield is gash and ours certainly is.

 

[StonesThrow]

When has Milera ever been an effective midfielder? He hasn't proven himself in that role yet and by all accounts, the injury he copped was pretty awful for a guy whose best quality is being able to turn on a dime. I'm not placing any of my midfield hopes on him.

I feel reasonably bullish about Pedlar providing we can get him fit and his groin isn't an ongoing issue.

Forward line is an issue. We need small and medium sized forwards to put pressure on guys like Rowe and McAdam. Frampton and Himmelberg will also need to be replaced. Neither has a future in the AFL.

We still need to invest in midfielders though. No point having a great forward line if your midfield is gash and ours certainly is.

Ahh hence why I said he's an unknown?

I had high hopes for his transition this year but now there's a chance that we'll never know.