Opinion Non-Crows AFL 11: Succession plans and other lols

[StonesThrow]

To the Bayes thread please

 

[StonesThrow]

Speaking of statistics, are we guilty of drawing false conclusions after a few rounds every year?

 

[Shifty Crow]

Luko out for 4 Months

If Port were smart they would get Luko in the gym - get some real size into him


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[Grooster24]

Charlie comben looks a unit

Vs RT next week. Would be a good match up.

 

[Cromulant]

Great explanation, thanks

I dont have to give one, I disagree fhaf North will have the best midfield.

It doesn't require an explanation unless you want one.

 

[Cromulant]

If Port were smart they would get Luko in the gym - get some real size into him


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Wouldn't work

 

[ams4crows]

Why was that a point? I thought if it was punched through after the siren it didn't count?

 

[cmndstab]

Why was that a point? I thought if it was punched through after the siren it didn't count?

I believe spoiled through on the full counts as a point even after the siren. It's not a dead ball until it touches the ground or possession is taken.

 

[Shifty Crow]

Can’t see any game plan changes from Cox


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[Crow_68]

That's shit luck.

Hopefully Lord's injury isn't too bad.

Finlayson back as a forward next week?

At least they have the depth to cover

 

[1970crow]

That's not a good thing. The probability of winning one increases every time they lose here

New to math?

 

[1970crow]

Look if we can't beat North at home with our full strength side we don't deserve to make finals

We’ll win handsomely. It’ll be like Richmond/Port this round.

 

[1970crow]

Melbourne's forward line coach is unemployable

He can blame connection, push the blame upfield.

 

[BRL121]

The was a kick to Tex (I think) i50 yesterday that was under 15. No one even brought it up. Then there were a handful of 15-20 meter kicks in D50 that were called play on. They've obviously been told to call play on for D50 kicks under 20 meters, which is so ****ing stupid.

There was an identical <15m kick to Tex last week in exactly the same position: the commentators picked that one, but not this week.

 

[ams4crows]

Fremantle don't look like a rusted on finals team and neither does Sydney, both look middle of the road.

 

[1970crow]

...wut?

Each event is separate, so there is a 50% chance of winning. The odds of winning 7 in a row is 0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5x0.5, so very, very small. But each event is separate (independent), so if you jump in anywhere in that streak and bet on the next outcome, the likelihood of winning that one is 50%. Every event prior has no relevance.

 

[BRL121]

When you have 0 consecutive wins then the probability of getting a winning streak of length n is (0.5)^n assuming 50% probability of winning any given match. But once you have an winning streak of length n it is still 50% of making it n+1.

Making Baldy's strategy of taking it one game at a time the correct one. It's always about the next game, not the length of the winning streak.

 

[Cromulant]

Port silenced the critics apparently, according to Ch7

 

[cmndstab]

(Football matches are not independent events)

 

[Geoffa32]

Port silenced the critics apparently, according to Ch7

The track at AO was so flat yesterday, the should have played the Shield Final on it.

 

[dogs105]

Would we take Goodwin if he became available? Assistant coach?

Social Organiser

 

[dogs105]

(Football matches are not independent events)

Depends on how far apart they're played...

 

[1970crow]

(Football matches are not independent events)

I think to simplify the answer to the original question re the streak resulting in a greater likelihood of Roos winning, the event was switched to a coin toss, hence 50% being used in the calculation.

 

[cmndstab]

I think to simplify the answer to the original question re the streak resulting in a greater likelihood of Roos winning, the event was switched to a coin toss, hence 50% being used in the calculation.

Yeah, I know... but I wouldn't be a mathematician if I wasn't a pedant as well

I remember when I was a student, we learned the lesson about how, in theory, for a 2:1 payout you can always just keep doubling your bet until you eventually win, and you'll make a profit equal to your initial bet. My girlfriend at the time went straight to the casino to bet on red, and lost six times in a row. If it had turned up black one more time she would have hit the maximum bet limit and walked out several hundred dollars poorer, haha. Fortunately, it came up red and she gratefully walked out $10 richer and let the panic attack die away.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Nice win by Oscar Piastri just now in the F1