Rumour Speculation, Rumours, Lies Thread 2025 - Part 2

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Clarry to GWS for a future third. A real how the mighty have fallen kind of deal that.

And with Melbourne picking up a big chunk of his salary.

 

[WAG]

Classic Rowie

 

[Hodgy]

No it isn't.

Goals are the single most valuable commodity in this game, and currently there are only seven players in the league who played a decent amount of football in 2025 who average that. We could completely ditch the ruck component of Thilthorpes game and we wouldn't come close to under utilising him.

You need 100 points to win a AFL game generally, and in an AA caliber year he still only contributed about 15% of that each week. I know people love the nostalgia of yesteryear when key forwards averaged 6 goals in a great year, but footy is nothing like that now. In fact the majority of scoring now is system based. Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane this year have all won flags recently with no star key forwards.

 

[Cromulant]

You need 100 points to win a AFL game generally, and in an AA caliber year he still only contributed about 15% of that each week. I know people love the nostalgia of yesteryear when key forwards averaged 6 goals in a great year, but footy is nothing like that now. In fact the majority of scoring now is system based. Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane this year have all won flags recently with no star key forwards.

Joe Daniher and Logan Morris are star key forwards.

 

[Syd Crow]

Why he shouldn't eat glue

 

[MrBarry]

You need 100 points to win a AFL game generally, and in an AA caliber year he still only contributed about 15% of that each week. I know people love the nostalgia of yesteryear when key forwards averaged 6 goals in a great year, but footy is nothing like that now. In fact the majority of scoring now is system based. Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane this year have all won flags recently with no star key forwards.

Brisbane have Morris currently.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

North wanted two 1sts for Simpkin, never happening with his contract

 

[Crow-eater]

That's a lot

 

[TBM]

We getting Ah Chee now or in the draft?

 

[Scorpus]

That's a lot

Petracca and three picks in the 20s for 7, 8, a pick in the late teens and a pick in the 30s

It's actually a pretty classic trade except for his age

Pick 24 and Melbourne's future 2nd (probably around 24 again) are probably similar value on the open market to Gold Coast's future 1st in the teens and pick 37.

Then it becomes two first round picks for Petracca and a second rounder

 

[cmndstab]

That's a lot

So that's:

Gold Coast give: Pick 7, Pick 8, Pick 37, 2026 1st, 2027 3rd
Gold Coast get: Petracca, Pick 24, Pick 28, 2026 2nd

For now, let's cancel out Pick 37 with the 2026 2nd. You could make an argument that 2026 1st + 2027 3rd roughly as valuable as pick 24 + 28 this year (probably more so). So essentially they're giving up Picks 7 and 8 plus change for Petracca.

I understand the calculation is different for Gold Coast, but I'd be furious if we gave up something like that.

 

[Peter Doherty]

It's Petracca and three seconds for three firsts

 

[Drummond]

That's a lot

On the surface it seems like it. But those seconds from Melbourne might not be too far off GC’s firsts given how their respective lists are shaping up.

Edit: They’re 2025 picks. So not quite as good as I thought for GC. Eh; draft picks are overrated, they don’t need more young talent.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

We getting Ah Chee now or in the draft?

 

[ams4crows]

On the surface it seems like it. But those seconds from Melbourne might not be too far off GC’s firsts given how their respective lists are shaping up.

Also pick 7 and 8 would be massive for us, Gold Coast don't care as they are still getting two top 5 players in the draft so picks 7 and 8 don't matter to them as they are still going to bring in players in that range regardless of having those picks or not.

 

[SugarShane]

You need 100 points to win a AFL game generally, and in an AA caliber year he still only contributed about 15% of that each week. I know people love the nostalgia of yesteryear when key forwards averaged 6 goals in a great year, but footy is nothing like that now. In fact the majority of scoring now is system based. Melbourne, Collingwood and Brisbane this year have all won flags recently with no star key forwards.

If you take his scoring contributions away this year we lose 7 more games and comfortably miss finals.

And yes, you may say "System goals, so if he's not kicking them someone else will."

Who? Grandpa Tex? Fogarty? No one stood up last year when he was out for most of the season. Since Modra only Tex (twice) and Eddie Betts (once) have cracked 60 goals. Thilthorpe is a nightmare matchup for opposition defenders and has a knack for creating goals where others can't.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

That's a lot

About equal to what we got for Danger.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

So that's:

Gold Coast give: Pick 7, Pick 8, Pick 37, 2026 1st, 2027 3rd
Gold Coast get: Petracca, Pick 24, Pick 28, 2026 2nd

For now, let's cancel out Pick 37 with the 2026 2nd. You could make an argument that 2026 1st + 2027 3rd roughly as valuable as pick 24 + 28 this year (probably more so). So essentially they're giving up Picks 7 and 8 plus change for Petracca.

I understand the calculation is different for Gold Coast, but I'd be furious if we gave up something like that.

Yes, it would have been irresponsible of us to offer that for Petracca ......I think we all agreed, even a similar trade package for a 21 YO JHF in hindsight has proven to be correct in not offering that much

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Annoying thing is that I don’t think the Suns could do this deal next year if they want their two top 10 academy picks this year? System is changing and they would need to keep those top 10 picks to match bids, but to no surprise the AFL gave clubs a year to plan for it…

This year they just need those picks in the 20s to get it done.

 

[whattagun07]

Damian Barrett grinds my gears. His vocal mannerisms are really irritating.

 

[Scorpus]

Let's be honest, if Petracca nominated us, the deal would have been done and we would have paid less than Gold Coast paid

 

[Peter Doherty]

The reality is, as mentioned much earlier, Petracca was never being firesaled and they will not let him go unless they’re happy with what’s being offered. And everyone already, including Melbourne FC, knows we’re prepared to walk away if what we think they’re asking for is too much.

I think the reason we went public is because confidence has dropped. The stupidity is that prior to the public outing of this, we should have had a decent idea of the price required. So perhaps Suns have blown us out of the water with what they’ll pay and Petracca’s 50:50 call has been made for him because Melbourne have said it’s Suns or is, we’re not accepting Adelaide’s offer.

I hope it’s Suns, purely to see what they pay. If not us that is.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Also pick 7 and 8 would be massive for us, Gold Coast don't care as they are still getting two top 5 players in the draft so picks 7 and 8 don't matter to them as they are still going to bring in players in that range regardless of having those picks or not.

Yep, next year the system changes and I think they would’ve needed pick 7 and 8 to match high bids.

 

[morris086]

Also pick 7 and 8 would be massive for us, Gold Coast don't care as they are still getting two top 5 players in the draft so picks 7 and 8 don't matter to them as they are still going to bring in players in that range regardless of having those picks or not.

There needs to be serious discussion from other clubs about restricting the Northern academy's.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Let's be honest, if Petracca nominated us, the deal would have been done and we would have paid less than Gold Coast paid

I don’t think it would have, it’s not like Petracca burned any bridges at Melbourne and so could’ve stayed if we couldn’t get a better draft package