Rumour Speculation, Rumours, Lies Thread 2025 - Part 2

[daniel_4tw]

The value of picks is definitely moving. More and more players deemed worthy of multiple first rounders so you can see why decent players are being shopped for first rounders.

Personally I think the price for Petracca at his age was insane to pay but if that's the going rate for the top of of the pool then a single first rounder just doesn't have the value it used to.

Tradeflation I guess

This doesn’t make sense to me.

Back in the day the first round was 1-16 and second round at 17. Most clubs seconds would be in the 20s.

Now with 18 teams, FA comp, F/S, academies, priority picks, new club concessions etc, clubs still only have a first rounder that for competing clubs starts in the 20s and and second round picks in the late 40s.

With exception of a few clubs, 80% of clubs have less assets not more. It should be deflation. First round picks are worth less than they were 10 years ago, but also clubs only get one first round pick (except for those exceptions).

The expectation that ‘it must be a top 10 pick’ just can’t fly anymore because they are so much harder to get both for giving and receiving clubs. Clubs need to reset their expectations.

But then it doesn’t help when these academy clubs play in a completely different space and can hand over bucket loads of picks or walk away from second round picks on principle, and still get several top 3 picks in the draft. Every club expects it but unless you’re dealing with a North Academy team you’re not going to get it.

The AFL has ****ed the draft and created a completely uneven playing field.

Imagine giving 3 first rounders (2 before 3/4s of other teams have a pick) for a 30 year old and still know you’re getting 2 top 5 picks in the draft anyway.

 

[Adecagodelphalaide]

Considering Dawson just changed clubs I dont see it the same situation especially since he had a prior opportunity to pick Port just a few years before. Merritt has given career length service. He signed a contract so Essendon are not obliged to entertain it. However he was 30 and definitely should have handled it better.

Regardless of the specifics, the point is if our best player and captain wanted to leave to our bitter rivals in Port Adelaide and them only, to help put them over the edge to win a flag, I can understand Essendon being petty about it and wanting to play hard ball and tell them to get stuffed, despite shooting themselves in the foot somewhat. At the end of the day he signed a large deal and commitment as the leader of the club.

If Merrett is after the chance at success, why were there no other clubs in the picture? Would've been great if we'd been an option for him (apparently he'd considered Port in the past), and perhaps Essendon may have been more receptive.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Twomey says an alternative Brisbane offer was our 2026 and 2027 second rounders .

A little surprised we didn’t accept that

 

[feenix67]

The two clubs who paid a shit load have academies, no way would clubs without academies pay that, hence why Hawthorn said no we aren't giving up 4 first rounders, it's completely unreasonable for one player let alone for a player who's 30.

Once the Northern Academies have to pay full price ie to match bid at pick 1 need picks 6 and 7 I reckon we'll see normal valuation of picks again.... Well the top 10 will be worth way more in any case

That's exactly right, the AFL is a two tiered economy at the moment

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

George Stevens still uncontracted. Might get him as a delisted free agent?

 

[Slim258]

George Stevens still uncontracted. Might get him as a delisted free agent?

I have the feeling Geelong were waiting to see what happened during trade period, similar to us with Burgess.

I reckon they’ll give him a year or two given they didn’t bring anyone else in

 

[Huntercrow]

You signed a long term contract you deal with it.

That's not how it works in the AFL

Petracca and Curnow managed to get to another club. Both on long term contracts.
Oliver was pushed out by Melbourne.
Sydney pushed Will Hayward (signed 5 year contract last year)

It works both ways.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

That''s a bit overstated, I thought he was worth a shot in his draft year with a late/rookie pick.

South Adelaide I'd think, still hasn't developed the tank required to be an AFL regular by all reports.

You did push Verrall very hard ....it wasn't "worth a shot" type enthusiasm ....I'll just add another name to the list

 

[Cromulant]

You did push Verrall very hard ....it wasn't "worth a shot" type enthusiasm ....I'll just add another name to the list

You're nothing if not petty

 

[WaynesWorld19]

You signed a long term contract you deal with it.

I agree ....you want the big Contract, the big $$$, the security .....but yet player & manager want the flexibility of acting as if it's a short-term contract

If anything ....the extraordinary cost to SYD for Curnow, mindboggling after what doctors diagnosed with his knee .....and the failed trades of Marshall & Merrett, will have sent all Clubs & Managers back for a big rethink

We were absolutely being responsible during trade week, what with walking away from Petracca ....and holding firm on Ah Chee

Yet there are those that will find any and every reason to criticise the club .....and call it a failed trade period .....interesting that those people are the least active, almost non-existent posters during this period

 

[WaynesWorld19]

You're nothing if not petty

Oh absolutely ....I keep score

 

[Floating Doughnut]

Oh absolutely ....I keep score

Other people’s receipts should keep you up at night

 

[WaynesWorld19]

The value of picks is definitely moving. More and more players deemed worthy of multiple first rounders so you can see why decent players are being shopped for first rounders.

Personally I think the price for Petracca at his age was insane to pay but if that's the going rate for the top of of the pool then a single first rounder just doesn't have the value it used to.

Tradeflation I guess

I don't think so .....I can't see this trade period's flagrant overuse of first round picks becoming the norm

Maybe it is a cautionary tale of the dangers of allowing Clubs to use picks, two years ahead .....we do know Clubs have to be protected from themselves .....so many Clubs spend recklessly & get into financial trouble, so we know they're poor managers (MELB, COLL, St KILDA)

Clubs IMO won't be as willing to chase the big Contract players, in the future

 

[WaynesWorld19]

That's not how it works in the AFL

Petracca and Curnow managed to get to another club. Both on long term contracts.
Oliver was pushed out by Melbourne.
Sydney pushed Will Hayward (signed 5 year contract last year)

It works both ways.

Yes, but at an extraordinary & unacceptable cost .....these Clubs that sold the farm, better ensure they don't have good players of their own leave, as they've just sold the ability to replace for the short term, either via the Draft or Trade

GCS excepted, because they just accumulate 1st rd picks like Easter Eggs ....

 

[dogs105]

Honestly, yes. The next time a player wants to leave, we should cut a deal with them where they sign up for six years on big money (backloaded, of course), and then one year into their contract they request to leave and let us take in one of these ridiculous draft hauls of multiple first-round picks.

Yes, then we should put the details in an email.

 

[CromradeCromulent]

Twomey says an alternative Brisbane offer was our 2026 and 2027 second rounders .

A little surprised we didn’t accept that

nah f that. No way Ah Chee is worth way more than ANB was and it would have severely limited our ability to trade for the next two years. They got greedy, pure and simple.

 

[StonesThrow]

I'm glad Merrett didn't get to the Hawks!

 

[GreyCrow]

Yes, then we should put the details in an email.

Hope Phil deleted 119s share offer email

 

[Danger in Texas]

Twomey says an alternative Brisbane offer was our 2026 and 2027 second rounders .

A little surprised we didn’t accept that

The only reason I wouldn’t have done that is because it’d already limit our ability to trade our 2027 1st, in case we need to next year

 

[Huntercrow]

Yes, but at an extraordinary & unacceptable cost .....these Clubs that sold the farm, better ensure they don't have good players of their own leave, as they've just sold the ability to replace for the short term, either via the Draft or Trade

GCS excepted, because they just accumulate 1st rd picks like Easter Eggs ....

Yes but that is what the market is prepared to pay(or not pay). Each club has its own circumstances. Rebuilding, contending, ageing list, New coach. Unlike the old days when contracts were contracts, anyone is now fair game, for a price.

 

[Mutineer]

You did push Verrall very hard ....it wasn't "worth a shot" type enthusiasm ....I'll just add another name to the list

Bullshit, always said he was a late/rookie option especially after his awful results in the endurance testing, always liked his athleticism, his leap being a big part of that and showed a bit when rested forward.
Late/rookie is where I think most young rucks should be taken unless they're absolutely outstanding prospects.

Sam Ainsworth with a pick in that range in this draft could be an option given he also showed promise as a KPD before switching to ruck this season.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Hird thinks Merrett can still be the captain he just needs to ‘mend some bridges and win trust back’.

What don’t Essendon get… he doesn’t want to mend bridges or win trust back. He didn’t ask to come back. They’ve held him hostage against his will. Rightly or wrongly.

Merrett doesn’t have to do anything.

What a mess Essendon have made.

Happy they’re not leaning into the rebuild and Hawks aren’t getting any better, but this is one of the most stubborn and detrimental list management decision I’ve seen in a long time.

 

[1990crow]

Hird thinks Merrett can still be the captain he just needs to ‘mend some bridges and win trust back’.

What don’t Essendon get… he doesn’t want to mend bridges or win trust back. He didn’t ask to come back. They’ve held him hostage against his will. Rightly or wrongly.

Merrett doesn’t have to do anything.

What a mess Essendon have made.

Happy they’re not leaning into the rebuild and Hawks aren’t getting any better, but this is one of the most stubborn and detrimental list management decision I’ve seen in a long time.

Merrett doesn't have a choice now. Essendon can hold him again next offseason too.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Merrett doesn't have a choice now. Essendon can hold him again next offseason too.

Sure.

But there’s giving your all and then there’s turning up.

If his heart isn’t in it and Essendon are getting smashed by 100 points how much is he really going to care?

They’ll have a senior player (captain or not captain) on over a million a year openly not giving a shit. Great for their culture and young kids.

Then he’ll ask for a trade again next year but Essendon will get 1 first rounder if they’re lucky.

 

[Betts are off]

If I were Reid I would get on the front foot with our unused draft collateral and dangle 16 + f2 + F3 to the 5 teams in front of us.

If next year is the draft that teams want to be in, and the AFL is jacking up the price on F/S and Academy bids, then someone is probably willing to pull the trigger in fleshing out their futures draft hand early.

And for us those picks are essentially free money (Thanks Brisbane)