List Mgmt. 2025 Young Talent Time

[apuchar]

Can someone explain to me where Sydney will get the points to match our bid for Carmichael if they've already matched GWS for Kyle?

With only Picks 31, 32, 42, 60, 71 after selling the farm for the Curnow trade, and Kyle, Carmichael and King to match, surely they are ripe for the Academy stealing?

Kyle at pick 16 would require 831 points = picks 31 and 32. Carmichael at 25 would require 531 points, which would require them grabbing a pick 33 to pair with their 42, and leave them with nothing for King. I don's see where Sydney get the picks from, unless they trade out of next years superior draft.

They could go into deficit next year in the corresponding round. Or trade in points this year if preferred. Might allow them to use next years second and third, rather than slide down next years first.

 

[Taylor]

What I am most interested in is whether a club matching a bid can trade with the club that lodged the bid.

 

[Docker82]

Think Barker suits us best. It's just the ACL which is a bit of an issue.

 

[lint]

They could go into deficit next year in the corresponding round. Or trade in points this year if preferred. Might allow them to use next years second and third, rather than slide down next years first.

The deficit rule is hogwash. It should be this year's drafts picks or no match at all. Make it so there are genuine decisions that need to made. It's so compromised, the AFL need to clean this mess up.

 

[apuchar]

The deficit rule is hogwash. It should be this year's drafts picks or no match at all. Make it so there are genuine decisions that need to made. It's so compromised, the AFL need to clean this mess up.

I agree totally.

 

[Purple Suit]

Think Barker suits us best. It's just the ACL which is a bit of an issue.

Yep, but if he didn't do his ACL then he wouldn't be in our range. I would prefer to take a risk on the ACL recovery than selecting a project player with bigger flaws. I assume our KPF & KPD interest publicly is to throw other clubs off or try and get a trade for them.

 

[Taylor]

Data study on AFL ACL injuries found that 35% of players sustaining an ACL injury weren't playing at the top level anymore three years post injury - despite 80% of them returning to play again intitally.

Risk of re-injuring the knee was rated at 1.2% in the first game back, trailing down to 0.15% after 20 games.

The method of the injury would be of most interest to me. Wrapping your leg around an object or other player is vastly different to that ever so slight landing misalignment rupture - the later of which seems to be far more correlated to future injuries, potentially a by-product of the mechanics of the body itself.

So how much risk to we want to take?

 

[greatgatsby]

I don't like the idea of getting no development into a kid in the first year. We've been down that path and it hasn't gone well.

 

[Docker82]

Yep, but if he didn't do his ACL then he wouldn't be in our range. I would prefer to take a risk on the ACL recovery than selecting a project player with bigger flaws. I assume our KPF & KPD interest publicly is to throw other clubs off or try and get a trade for them.

Don't think care about what our draftees (apart from mature aged rookies) do next year anyway. The injury is only a slight negative weighed up with other positives and negatives IMO.

 

[lint]

Data study on AFL ACL injuries found that 35% of players sustaining an ACL injury weren't playing at the top level anymore three years post injury - despite 80% of them returning to play again intitally.

Risk of re-injuring the knee was rated at 1.2% in the first game back, trailing down to 0.15% after 20 games.

The method of the injury would be of most interest to me. Wrapping your leg around an object or other player is vastly different to that ever so slight landing misalignment rupture - the later of which seems to be far more correlated to future injuries, potentially a by-product of the mechanics of the body itself.

So how much risk to we want to take?

 

[Purple Suit]

I don't like the idea of getting no development into a kid in the first year. We've been down that path and it hasn't gone well.

With who? I can't remember anybody recently who we drafted that was injured.

Some big names who had done their ACL when drafted - Petracca, Gawn. Melbourne don't win a flag without those two.

 

[Alfonz]

Would like to know how Barker did his ACL. Did someone fall across his knee? Or was it just running/landing. If it is the latter, it carries enormous risk as it would indicate a genetic issue.

If it comes down to Thredgold v Schubert v Barker, then I would be OK with Barker. But if there are small/medium forwards on the board that we rate slightly less than Barker, then I'd want to take the forward.

Sweid is another with ACL history and we've been mentioned as bidding on him. Bombers likely needing to go into deficit to match and might pass.

 

[greatgatsby]

With who? I can't remember anybody recently who we drafted that was injured.

Some big names who had done their ACL when drafted - Petracca, Gawn. Melbourne don't win a flag without those two.

I dare not mention his name in these parts.

 

[Purple Suit]

I dare not mention his name in these parts.

Draft year then please.

 

[theGav56]

Data study on AFL ACL injuries found that 35% of players sustaining an ACL injury weren't playing at the top level anymore three years post injury - despite 80% of them returning to play again intitally.

Risk of re-injuring the knee was rated at 1.2% in the first game back, trailing down to 0.15% after 20 games.

The method of the injury would be of most interest to me. Wrapping your leg around an object or other player is vastly different to that ever so slight landing misalignment rupture - the later of which seems to be far more correlated to future injuries, potentially a by-product of the mechanics of the body itself.

So how much risk to we want to take?

Any other details?

- 35% compared to how many non ACL injured players playing at the top level after 3 years?


Games average for pick 25 is around 65 games, which could be chalked up in 3 years. Does that mean there is a 65% chance a player with an ACL can do better than the average pick 25?

 

[Vimal Anand]

Phantom Draft late mail: Intrigue over Tigers' picks, Bombers' big haul

Draft guru Cal Twomey reveals the last-minute draft whispers ahead of the 2025 AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Paracleet]

Any other details?

- 35% compared to how many non ACL injured players playing at the top level after 3 years?


Games average for pick 25 is around 65 games, which could be chalked up in 3 years. Does that mean there is a 65% chance a player with an ACL can do better than the average pick 25?

I don't think so. I think the best we can assume is that for a given ranking that they will be at least 35% less likely to succeed.

So if someone was rated pick 20 without an ACL then scale them down to whatever 35% less is. Now of course there are issues with this. E.g. The average number of games per pick is an imperfect measure because the source data has evolved and you don't have a consistent basis of comparison. And, the probably the biggest one, a ranking doesn't tell you what their actual underlying talent was.

I'm sure they have a properly considered multi criteria analysis process for this. At least I hope they do!

 

[Joose]

Its ironic that for years these forums were foaming at the mouth for talented young talls and if one like Schubert was linked with Freo then the excitement would reach fever-pitch.

Now, however, its a case of " another KPF? - meh"

How the wheel has turned.

 

[DragoDelph]

Its ironic that for years these forums were foaming at the mouth for talented young talls and if one like Schubert was linked with Freo then the excitement would reach fever-pitch.

Now, however, its a case of " another KPF? - meh"

How the wheel has turned.

One like Schubert? I’ve only heard his name in the last week. Seems more like a weiderman than a king.

 

[theGav56]

Its ironic that for years these forums were foaming at the mouth for talented young talls and if one like Schubert was linked with Freo then the excitement would reach fever-pitch.

Now, however, its a case of " another KPF? - meh"

How the wheel has turned.

Amiss, Treacy, Voss and Nicholls + resting ruck.

All in the first half of their careers.

If I was a kpf Fremantle wouldn't be my dream destination.

 

[Barnabus]

Looking at the ESPN phantom draft it seems weird to me that we would go Dalton with Leray still on the board.

 

[Quay Club]

his 'FIGJAMness' seems off the charts

From what I have seen there is a touch of Chad Warner about him with the way he plays.

It reminds me of a kid we drafted back in 2009 who told the coach he won't be playing much WAFL because he is too good, and that turned out ok.

I would rather a kid who backs himself in and says he can be the best player in the league than one who lacks confidence.

Academic anyway because he will be long gone by the time our pick comes around.

 

[greatgatsby]

Draft year then please.

I recall a whole thread devoted to sightings of him (anywhere, not just the training track)!

Anyway, came with an existing injury (hip?) and never made it.

 

[DragoDelph]

I recall a whole thread devoted to sightings of him (anywhere, not just the training track)!

Anyway, came with an existing injury (hip?) and never made it.

Loved that the club jumped on board the mythical beast.

 

[Purple Suit]

I recall a whole thread devoted to sightings of him (anywhere, not just the training track)!

Anyway, came with an existing injury (hip?) and never made it.

2018, I don’t remember him having an existing injury. I couldn’t find it in his draft profile.